The Kids: Expectations vs. Reality - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Freeway · 03-09-2014, 11:26 PM

Part of the excitement of the rebuild is that we're seeing more of the young players in the organization. The media also talks about them a lot more than they would otherwise, as a result of that increased interest.

On a personal level, has all the prospect hubbub and excitement inflated your expectations of the kids? Or has it changed your expectations at all?

Caged Great · 03-09-2014, 11:44 PM

No change in my opinions at all from what I saw back in July watching them first hand. Lots of good secondary players. We still need a player possibly two though that are equal or better than Monahan (not necessarily forwards) but most of the other parts we seem to have in hand already.

dammage79 · 03-09-2014, 11:59 PM

Expectation for me is laid out on the ice. My expectation is very much alike Hartley's. If the effort is there I am happy.

The reality right now meets those expectations, therefore I am happy. Over all the season has given me huge ups and very little downs. Beating CHI at the United Center, the Canucks Brewhaha, beating other teams on their ice which hadn't been done in ages (regretfully, Anaheim STILL is a den of curses).

Cannot ask for much more.

Organizational expectation? Let the scouting staff do their thing, since they've been given the green light to nab the kids they want they've done very well for themselves (2011-2013). I hope they get to keep it going.

Itse · 03-10-2014, 12:05 AM

I've been avoiding saying this, since the vibe of positivity has been a nice change from all the vitriol that has honestly been the hallmark of this board for a few years. It's nice to see people enjoy the moment in Calgary for once. But, since you're asking directly, here's what I honestly think of our kids.

I feel that generally the expectations right now are very inflated in Calgary. Just because we have young guys that are not a total Oilers-style embarrasment doesn't really say much about our young players ability to contribute meaningfully on a (hopefully) competitive Flames team in the future. That's not to say that we don't have anything in our hands, there is a chance that someone other than Monahan actually might be valuable, but generally the expectations are I think too high.

The team play has been nice to see though. This is very much what people asked when they wanted a rebuild; a team that gives an honest effort every night, and yes, it is actually more fun to watch these guys than the previous team, even if we are losing more games.

Unless you're winning championships, the style of hockey matters.

nik- · 03-10-2014, 12:12 AM

It's been a fun year in some respects, but I still think next year is going to be worse than this one as far as standings go. As far of the kids, I'm still unhappy with the first benching of Baertschi which I still believe was unwarranted and seemed to derail his season.

I'm worried about people turning on Monahan like they seemed to turn on Sven if he has a sophomore slump too.

Also, as much as Bouma is a warrior, I'm worried his career won't last long enough for him to be here for the upswing if he keeps playing like this.

Granlund, massively surprised, I didn't expect him to turn into much, and he's already torpedoed a lot of my expectations.

We still need two elite pieces to make us a legit contender down the line IMO. One on D and hopefully an elite center. It's annoying to have a crappy season and still have the loser franchise squad swoop in at the end of the year and scoop all the cream from the top of the draft.

Dion · 03-10-2014, 12:45 AM

At times I think we're too quick to label a player as being NHL ready with Baertschi being a prime example. He looked good in his emergency call up and hasn't been the same since then. I wonder if we are doing the same thing with Granlund. He may turn into a solid NHL player but I think we need to wait and see what he does next season.

I was disappointed to see Berra traded as I thought he made great strides to improve his game and was looking forward to him taking his game to the next level. At the same time I looked at the trade as being a huge vote of confidence for Ortio and the great strides he has made in his game. Going from the ECHL to the AHL and then to the NHL in one season is a huge accomplishment. I hope Ortio keeps it up and provides us with a solid one two goaltending pair with Ramo.

The play of our prospects with the Flames and Abby have given me reason for hope, something I haven't had in many years. It wasn't that long ago when the cupboard was bare and we were bring in over the hill vets to fill the holes. They work thier tails off and compete hard every game translating into a different attitude on and off the ice.

I'm not sure what the future holds for the off season and next year but watching our prospects develop is a nice change from years past.

Vulcan · 03-10-2014, 01:51 AM

I think Monahan and Colborne are bona fide NHLers.

Perhaps Granlund, Ortio and Reinhart are running on adrenaline and will slow down although trading Berra has to be a vote of confidence for Ortio. I can see a Flames future for all three, but maybe not full time for another year.

I also very much like Wotherspoon's game. He's not going to be a star but being steady is a good trait for a defenceman. He should have a spot next season with the Flames.

Having praised these players, my scouting ability will probably end up with someone like Knight being the only rookie who makes the team next season as a 4th line centre.

djsFlames · 03-10-2014, 03:13 AM

I think it's great that we've been able to bring up a lot of kids to showcase for the fans and media, and it's great to get more talk of potential around the team than the typical chatter of the old, stagnant and talentless "Flames". Very few of these kids here now though will realistically A. stick in the NHL and B. become more than AHL-NHL fringe/journeymen types. Yes, they have brought energy and work ethic in (for several) their first taste of the league, but that initial jump will wear off with most of them.

I have my doubts about Reinhart, Hanowski, Knight, Byron, Breen and to lesser degrees, Granlund and Colborne. Wotherspoon i haven't much of a solid read on yet. I realize the sample sizes are small and it's still early on development-wise for some, but I know already that the last two have exhibited qualities that may allow for longer stays. I really, really like Byron and what he does. But he needs to find another gear if he wants to have an NHL career, and I'm not sure he has one. Historically only the more elite talents of his size will make a place in the league. But I fully invite him to prove me wrong.

Backlund just recently proved his worth in the league after people were starting to write him off as not being able to cut it here. He's done that by consistently impacting games with his 200 ft play and grit. Where he is now is where we have to hope a couple of these kids can get to in the next couple seasons and prove themselves for their own outstanding qualities.

When I put the homer goggles on, which I do a lot with this team, I see all of them having some future place with the team. But the reality is only a few of this current crop do. I think a realistic prediction sees Monahan (as a 2nd line C), Granlund (as a 2nd-3rd line winger Hagman type), Colborne (as a 3rd line winger), Baertschi (as a 2nd line winger), Wotherspoon (2nd-3rd pairing Smid type), Sieloff (a bottom pairing Wideman-lite) become regular NHLers, and a 25/75 chance Reinhart finds a home as a grinder somewhere. The rest of the current NHL roster/farm crop will truthully be in tough to make it.

However, I think that the next wave of prospects to turn pro, in Arnold, Agostino, Gillies, Gaudreau, Poirier, Gordon, Kulak, Culkin may yield a strong percentage of NHLers, with Gaudreau and Poirier having a chance at being impact players, which is exciting.

Delthefunky · 03-10-2014, 03:56 AM

I'm most pleased with the identity that has begun to be established. That may actually be easier to do because of all the youth being given a chance. As for my expectations going forward, I'm more optimistic then at the beginning of the season, but I know a few things still need to fall into place. That being said, I am really excited about the emergence of Monahan and Bouma this year. By the end of the year, Granlund might be a part of that too (huge surprise for me so far). If Wotherspoon can emerge as an NHL player and continue to progress that would be huge.

Then, if next year guys like Gaudreau and Poirier can come in and meet and maybe exceed some expectations, maybe even Baertschi if he figures his game out, we suddenly have some game!. Ferland is still someone to be hopeful for too.

Throw in some good picks this year and we might have a successful rebuild sooner then later.

I'd really like us to come out of this draft with some good defensive prospects. I think right now we are lacking top pairing talent most.

Tinordi · 03-10-2014, 04:52 AM

A useful exercise is to take a list of the top 15 prospects in the organization and then decide which 9 prospects will not make it. Those are the generous odds.

Vulcan · 03-10-2014, 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tinordi

A useful exercise is to take a list of the top 15 prospects in the organization and then decide which 9 prospects will not make it. Those are the generous odds.

You made me start looking around for our top 15.

Seemingly, the top 15 prospects are not the end all as young players can surprise. Here's CPs list from last summer.

Quote:

Journey17 · 03-10-2014, 06:08 AM

Okay Tinordi - let's look at the "Fall" or "Summer" top prospects and I think you're right that we have to realistically expect that some players will either end up being tweeners or not make it at all. Reality is that Horak looks like he was an obvious example of a player that we thought either had made it or would make it. He has already been traded and even with the pathetic lack of talent on the oilers bottom 6, he hasn't gotten even a cup of coffee. So that's one down...

Cundari essentially same story. Has likely played his way out of the organization.

Brossoit is gone. I'm not convinced he will make it to the NHL even (technically 17 but think that top 20 is probably more realistic to evaluate as we have a bunch of roughly equal players from 15 to 20).

Everyone knows that both Jankowski and Gaudreau are risky. Let's presume at least one of them is a fail.

Either Knight, Reinhart or Arnold likely isn't going to make it with the flames is likely scenario as chances of three bottom 6 players making it are slim. I think that all three will at least get to tweener status.

Berra is already traded so we didn't think he was a #1 goalie. Likely will be a #2 though.

Ramage is having trouble breaking into the heat lineup so chances are that he won't make it to the NHL as a more than tweener.

Based on what's happening, I think we've seen Burke make the call that some of our "prospects" aren't going to make it and has shipped out the "deadwood" quickly while it still had value or to open slots for someone else (e.g. Ortio).

What will be interesting is whether we can continue to find 2 or 3 prospects with a good chance of making it in each draft. Extra picks in rounds 1 and 2 will help our chances dramatically. Plus we need a couple of late round picks to out-perform (e.g. Brodie).

foshizzle11 · 03-10-2014, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vulcan

You made me start looking around for our top 15.

Seemingly, the top 15 prospects are not the end all as young players can surprise. Here's CPs list from last summer.

I would say this list has drastically changed. Here is what I would do now for the top 15. No need to rank the rest, some might pan out, some might not. I think our top 15 have legitimate chances of being regular NHL players. The top 10 of legit chances of being the core of the flames in the future.

Our future is bright and a lot of those names had Feaster & Co's name on them.

1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Bouma
7. Gillies
8. Sieloff
9. Wotherspoon
10. Poirier
11. Klimchuck
12. Jankowski
13. Knight
14. Reinhart
15. Ramage

PeteMoss · 03-10-2014, 10:23 AM

Based on what we've seen so far:
Monahan - top six guy
Colborne - still needs to develop, but I think a 3rd line winger is likely. You can't teach being 6'5
Granlund - he's been impressive, particularly away from the puck. Need more time, but all signs point to him being a keeper.
Reinhart - still strikes me as just a guy, he's shown improvement at the AHL level so perhaps he just needs time to turn into a 3rd line guy at the NHL level but right now he doesn't show much more than a 4th line Ben Street type guy.
Knight/Hanowski - AHL level
Wotherspoon - he's been fine, haven't seen enough to really judge.

CaptainCrunch · 03-10-2014, 11:09 AM

The Reality is that I had no expectations for this year. I wasn't sure where this team would sit or how they'd play. At the end of the day, they're slightly higher then I thought they would be, but I've loved how they've played.

If year one of a rebuild is about establishing culture, then the Flames have accomplished that.

Now I always said that my expectations for next year are when reality kicks in. this team will be worse no matter what the effort level is. But the second year when you cast aside veterans and wrap what's left in a cocoon of Silk and wait a year for a butterfly to emerge can be tough. You need to keep the culture of had work that you established in the first year going. Because if you can't, well look a few hundred KM's up the road and you can see the price for having no culture.

We've been fortunate this year, whether through drafting or through fluke, the prospects in our pool for the most part have shown growth that I didn't think would happen.

We know that the kids can't run on the batteries that they're running on now, next year is going to test them, and half of the prospects that we're talking about now will probably fail.

But there's not much we can do.

Being a hockey fan is like dating a hot chick. You know that at some point she's either going to cheat, or clean out your bank or and pee on your comic collection and take your car, if you go in with low expectations the reality won't kick you in the nads.

ramizle · 03-10-2014, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nik-

It's been a fun year in some respects, but I still think next year is going to be worse than this one as far as standings go. As far of the kids, I'm still unhappy with the first benching of Baertschi which I still believe was unwarranted and seemed to derail his season.

I'm worried about people turning on Monahan like they seemed to turn on Sven if he has a sophomore slump too.

Also, as much as Bouma is a warrior, I'm worried his career won't last long enough for him to be here for the upswing if he keeps playing like this.

Granlund, massively surprised, I didn't expect him to turn into much, and he's already torpedoed a lot of my expectations.

We still need two elite pieces to make us a legit contender down the line IMO. One on D and hopefully an elite center. It's annoying to have a crappy season and still have the loser franchise squad swoop in at the end of the year and scoop all the cream from the top of the draft.

I believe that the demotion of Beartschi to the AHL is a better move for himself and the team in the long run. Letting Beartschi feel entitled to be in the NHL to me feels a lot like Oiler development. He will come around.

I believe that Granlund learning from Troy Ward of what is expected of him very much helped him play well in the NHL and more importantly within our system. Granlund plays very well on both sides of the puck. His defensive play out there was very visible.

Parallex · 03-10-2014, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Lots of good secondary players. We still need a player possibly two though that are equal or better than Monahan

That's close to my feeling as well. I feel like the team has plenty of talent that can be of the level that is usually labelled "complementary" (Lee Stempniak types) in the NHL but it needs at least 1 more forward who I can comfortable put into the future "star" catagory and 1 more defenseman for that catagory as well (that's operating under the hope that one of Baertschi, Gaudreau, Poirer reaches that level).

ramizle · 03-10-2014, 11:22 AM

I think it is great that we are developing great secondary players as the bottom 6 have seemed to be our problem the last few years. We can always acquire top 6 talent from free agency. Correct me if I'm wrong but if my memory serves me right, our bottom 6 free agency signings have been mediocre at best.

Flames Draft Watcher · 03-10-2014, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by foshizzle11

1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Bouma
7. Gillies
8. Sieloff
9. Wotherspoon
10. Poirier
11. Klimchuck
12. Jankowski
13. Knight
14. Reinhart
15. Ramage

Monahan and Bouma are NHLers IMO so I'm leaving them off. Ramage is not doing well in the AHL this year, healthy scratch recently. Given his age he's looking like more of a suspect than a prospect. I'd have Poirier higher. Ferland and Arnold deserve some consideration IMO. Here's my attempt

1. Gaudreau
2. Baertschi
3. Poirier
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Jankowksi
7. Klimchuk
8. Gillies
9. Reinhart
10. Sieloff
11. Wotherspoon
12. Ferland
13. Knight
14. Arnold
15. Hanowski/Kulak/Culkin/Kanzig (haven't seen enough of them to judge)

jg13 · 03-10-2014, 11:48 AM

1. Gaudreau
2. Granlund
3. Baertschi
4. Poirier
5. Ortio
6. Jankowski
7. Gillies
8. Klimchuk
9. Reinhart
10. Wotherspoon
11. Knight
12. Sieloff
13. Ferland
14. Arnold
15. Kulak

lots of these guys have potential to be players in the NHL, it's amazing to see how deep our prospect pool is after just a year or two.