CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

If Lego Man is host, I think this post might be one to look at:

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I highly suggest we lay off GirlySports, and investigate Oiling overnight. If Oling is town, I also buy GirlySports defence too.

Had GirlySports been host or turned, it really makes sense why a noobie Host Lego Man would say this.

But now that we know GirlySports is town, where does the logic come from? If he's host, why would he care about who got investigated? More specifically why would he be arguing against GirlySports - a passenger - being investigated?

But if he's town why would me being investigated make GirlySports claim be true, especially when it would be confirmed that she received the spore and got a 50/50 chance of being turned...? And this ignores that me being investigated wouldn't prove I was town, just not turned.

My only guess is, if he was host, on Day 3 we couldn't confirm if GirlySports was telling the truth or not about who she sent the spore to

When asked he quickly goes to his "I think GirlySports is town but subsequently votes for her anyways" post.

Lego Man, mind fleshing out your thinking in this post a bit more?

I'm out for the day,, so can't give a real list. But ai will say again, there's something about HG that gets my hackles up. I read through some of Timbo's posts this am and didn't get the same feeling, so I'm not sure why somepeople are so anti-Timbo.
I kind of wish I had been scum the last game so I would have an idea how they play and get into the minds of them.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

All is not lost, we still have the numbers. As for someone telling us they passed the spore on, if they are infected why would they do that? Their end game goal will now be different. If they were not infected and told us how could we trust that they are being honest? Things are gonna get dicey, that's for sure.

This was Diss' first post of Day 2. It stands out to me because we had already talked in depth about spore reveal scenarios on day 1. I'm not sure why he wanted to clarify this stuff again?

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So do we start taking a harder look at how the voting went there? You would have to think at least one scum voted for Activestick. Maybe had the others vote elsewhere so they are not all grouped together? Still damn hard at this stage to get a read though.

A few minutes after that first post he asks if we want to look at the first vote now. He does no analysis of the first vote ever, and I believe this is his only mention of it.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I can't see why we would not lynch GS knowing she carries the spore. It prevents the passing of it for a whole day and buys us some time. If we don't she will continue to claim she was never turned and if she did that is another person manipulating and voting with the scum. We could investigate Oling but what is the point? I feel he is either a host or an unturned passenger, I believe the latter. If he is a host it will be a waste because the GA will get a false reading right? I say we lynch GS and investigate someone else, my recommendation there would be Timbo as the way he is playing is throwing up some serious red flags for me.

Diss then has this post, but it's flawed logic. The flaw is when he says if we don't lynch her she will continue to claim she was never turned. He says we can investigate Oling but what's the point? He never talks about investigating Girly, which would either kill her or clear her of being infected. He then suggests we investigate Timbo, but what would be the point of that since none of us suspect Timbo of being infected??

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I see zero logic in not voting for GirlySports

Vote:GirlySports

He votes for Girly and says there is no logic in not voting for her. That isn't true, we talked about the different logic for a long time and never once did we come to the conclusion that there was no logic in voting for someone else. It came down to what you thought was more likely, but even if you thought Girly was a host/infected there was still logic to leaving her alive to investigate instead of lynching her.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Because she is the best known target for this lynch. We know she has the spore, she could be a host, she is probably turned given the way she posted. Even if she hasn't turned we get a spore free night as a worst case scenario. If we lynch someone else and they end up being a passenger which odds are they will be and we leave GS in play that is a huge win for the scum.

Again he is ignoring the fact that we can investigate her and she will be killed if she is turned. GGG calls this statement false because the agent can investigate her if we don't lynch her but Diss never comments on that.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So we still will never know if GS actually had the spore? Assuming she did that now gives us a spore free day. What about Oling now, where is he? We need to work hard to figure out a host, won't be easy.

This is Diss' first post from today. Again he asks the question we have already discussed for how long the day before? He also ends with a similar comment to the previous day. It's weird to me how similar this post and his first post from the previous day are. Ask a question that has already been answered, make a comment about how hard the game is.

He accused me of pointing the spotlight everywhere but on me, but looking at his posts it's almost like he is doing the same thing. It's like he wants to get us back onto topics we have already covered, maybe that's to keep the scent off the hosts? I'm leaning towards Diss being a host at the moment.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If Lego Man is host, I think this post might be one to look at:


Had GirlySports been host or turned, it really makes sense why a noobie Host Lego Man would say this.

But now that we know GirlySports is town, where does the logic come from? If he's host, why would he care about who got investigated? More specifically why would he be arguing against GirlySports - a passenger - being investigated?

But if he's town why would me being investigated make GirlySports claim be true, especially when it would be confirmed that she received the spore and got a 50/50 chance of being turned...? And this ignores that me being investigated wouldn't prove I was town, just not turned.

My only guess is, if he was host, on Day 3 we couldn't confirm if GirlySports was telling the truth or not about who she sent the spore to

When asked he quickly goes to his "I think GirlySports is town but subsequently votes for her anyways" post.

Lego Man, mind fleshing out your thinking in this post a bit more?

This was my thought process:

I read and reread all the posts GirlySports posted to defend her self and convince everyone she was not scum or turned - and I was convinced. Imagine that... we all asked her to explain herself... and I used that information to make a decision about her loyalty.

The reason I thought it would be a good idea to investigate Oling was because I assumed Girly was telling the truth and she was not turned - meaning that 1) Oling passed it to her and she survived, or 2) Oling is scum and behind some sinister scum plot that would probably need a ton more information to figure out. I thought that it would be a good idea to have someone confirmed town, and Oling is a good place to start.

As it stands, only puxlut is confirmed... and maybe Oling... just because Girly was town doesn't mean she ever got the spore in the first place.

Lot's of assumptions taking place here. But, generally... I do subscribe to the notion that Oling is town. But... Oling could be scum and it wouldn't even be hard for him to pull that off with a bit of scum planning.

On the other hand, I read and reread a lot of Hockeyguys posts and the arguments against GirlySports was quite convincing... if not aggressive and persistent. I was confident that Girly was town, but not as confident as everyone else...and I suppose I have to admit the town conversation convinced me to vote Girly.

I'm more suspicious of Hockeyguy at this point in the game than anyone else. In my opinion, hockeyguy has WAY too much influence on the town and is quite the dangerous player right now. His record is worse than most of us. If anything he has been a detriment to the towns chances.




Timbo has been alot more careful with his responses in Day 2.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote results:


I think it's less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes. If that is true then you can take out squiggs, bizaro, Timbo, devo, and ECF.

The leaves Oling, GGG, diss, Lego Man, Peanut as people who voted for 1 of the passengers.

I do have to whole heartedly disagree with you on the both vote=not scum theory. I think the chances are higher that scum votes both times this early in the game. Still really easy to cover your tracks.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

This was my thought process:

I read and reread all the posts GirlySports posted to defend her self and convince everyone she was not scum or turned - and I was convinced. Imagine that... we all asked her to explain herself... and I used that information to make a decision about her loyalty.

That's not what I'm talking about. I mean the if statement about me being town somehow positively affecting you're thoughts on GirlySports.

Originally Posted by Lego Man

If Oling is town, I also buy GirlySports defence too.

It seemed to me that you were qualifying her defense based on me being town. But if I'm town, how would that affect you're feelings positively on GirlySports? Should it have not been the opposite, that if I was host/turned you would be more inclined to believe her..?

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

That's not what I'm talking about. I mean the if statement about me being town somehow positively affecting you're thoughts on GirlySports.


It seemed to me that you were qualifying her defense based on me being town. But if I'm town, how would that affect you're feelings positively on GirlySports? Should it have not been the opposite, that if I was host/turned you would be more inclined to believe her..?

Ahh, I see what you mean. To me, since I already believed her to be town and not turned, you proving to be town would reinforce my opinion that Girly is also town and had been telling the truth - meaning I have (including myself) 3 townmembers to play with when going back to study posts. Had she turned, her defence would have been altogether different and who knows what I would have been thinking. Either way, it's not purely and IF statement, but more of a change from 65% to 90% confirmed town for Girly IF you prove town.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So are we just assuming the spore carrier will know he infected or did I miss something?

Diss' first post of the game. Asking a question with the answer being in the game write up from Mazrim.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Sorry, I am tired. So, we should assume then that if the spore carrier is infected they won't reveal as now their victory condition has changed. How does it work though? What I am wondering is let's say the coin flip comes up not to infect, does Mazrim then have to tell the target they were even targeted if there is no infection?

His second post, again asking a question we have already established the answer to (if infected don't expect a reveal). He then asks if they will find out if they will find out if not infected, and guess what we had already been talking about this.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok. This game is gonna be a tough one.

Day 1, game is tough comment to go along with day 2 and 3 game is tough comment.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So from what I have read many posters think the spore carrier if not infected should reveal themselves, correct? How long are we waiting because if they were infected then they are not going to reveal right?

More re-hashing of things we have already talked about.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

There in lies the problem. The agent is basically our cop, we need to give him time to do some investigating before he outs himself and becomes an instant target for the scum.

The agent doesn't need to out themselves this game. They cannot detect hosts, and they autokill infected. They really have nothing to announce.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So far my biggest suspect is HG15. He seems to be trying to put attention on others or anything but himself. Kind of reminds me of last game and we saw how that turned out.
Also Timbo, I am not being meek, I am still feeling this one out.

I still don't understand how someone can put attention on everything but themselves. By trying to put attention on everything wouldn't that bring attention directly at me?

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Still suspicious of HG, just seems to me he is trying to put attention elsewhere. SebC's weird posts are concerning too. Not sure where to place my vote yet.

Still suspicious of me, but not enough to make a vote or provide any back up with quotes. More of a "I'm still here, but don't pay any attention to me because I'm not rocking the boat." post.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ugg, two votes already? Guys, I am not scum, you are sniffing up the wrong tree here. Every game I have played I have been on the towns side and have been upfront about it. This time is no different. I have made it to the end of every mafia game we have done so far which gives me a wack of experience. Have faith in me and let's try and pick off one of the bad guys early this time. I am not sure why my posts have been suspicious, they are similar to the other games I have been in.

Starts to feel the heat with 2 votes on him. He mentions how every time he plays he has been on the town and is upfront about it. It's odd he says that though when none of his prior posts so far have mentioned him being town? This just really seems like he is trying to put out a false sense of security.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok, so like I said before, HG15 seems most suspect to me. He is participating in the game yet trying to steer attention anywhere but himself. The facts are it is early so it is super hard to get a read on anything. Oling played a brilliant game last time yet turned out to be scum but something tells me he is on the straight and narrow this time, gut feeling. SebC's posts are strange but maybe that is just the way he plays. Same with squiggs, coming out early with his vanilla comment but what to make of it? It is basically a crapshoot at this point and we still have time to figure out the voting which is why I have not voted yet. If I did it would be HG15 right now unless something changes. Or do we vote for someone not participating and lurking? Anyhow, if I was scum I would not be calling attention to myself and I would rather we not waste votes on me and hurt the passengers early on when it would be in my best interest to try and sniff out one of the bad guys.

Makes the same comment about me, but again doesn't back it up and doesn't vote for me. Calls out squiggs for his vanilla comment, but remember Diss is always upfront about being town as well. This is a very noncommittal post. Hints that voting for him would hurt the town so look elsewhere, trying to hint he is a power role maybe? 2 of the 3 roles have been revealed already.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

As I said before, at this point it is a crap shoot. I guess I just go with the gut as we are all putting in a vote.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

Finally a vote, even if it really isn't that convincing.

Just seems like he is trying to coast along and not really be noticeable.

Vote: dissentowner

[Timbo]

Glad I'm not the only player to see dissentowner's posting being off and deflective.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I do have to whole heartedly disagree with you on the both vote=not scum theory. I think the chances are higher that scum votes both times this early in the game. Still really easy to cover your tracks.

disagree. Obviously we who voted for both activeStick and GirlySports shouldn't get a free pass, but I think it's way too risky for scum to do that early in the game. Just look at what mrkajz44 has been doing, he has already tried hard to put focus on the first vote. I also remember that when I played mafia, we tried to avoid helping with the lynch early in the game. It's just to risky ... if you're scum, it's probably better to vote for somebody else early and use those votes against the town". It's not a bad strategy and that's also why mrkajz is still very high on my list of suspects. He is the only one to vote for the runner-up in both votes, which would be a good strategy for scum early in the game ... not going with obscure choices, but also not going with the one who is eventually lynched. You can't hide any better than that.

Glad that Puxlut revealed. Wasn't sure if it's a good idea to do it that early in the game, but I'm glad that we have a confirmed townie now (unless you're lying, of course ...) and I hope we can use this to our advantage.

I somehow also fear that one of the stronger players is scum and is doing a very good job leading us around. HG, bizaro, GGG and Oling are all very good and experienced players and the notion of one of them leading us up the garden path scares the crap out of me.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by devo22

disagree. Obviously we who voted for both activeStick and GirlySports shouldn't get a free pass, but I think it's way too risky for scum to do that early in the game. Just look at what mrkajz44 has been doing, he has already tried hard to put focus on the first vote. I also remember that when I played mafia, we tried to avoid helping with the lynch early in the game. It's just to risky ... if you're scum, it's probably better to vote for somebody else early and use those votes against the town". It's not a bad strategy and that's also why mrkajz is still very high on my list of suspects. He is the only one to vote for the runner-up in both votes, which would be a good strategy for scum early in the game ... not going with obscure choices, but also not going with the one who is eventually lynched. You can't hide any better than that.

Glad that Puxlut revealed. Wasn't sure if it's a good idea to do it that early in the game, but I'm glad that we have a confirmed townie now (unless you're lying, of course ...) and I hope we can use this to our advantage.

I somehow also fear that one of the stronger players is scum and is doing a very good job leading us around. HG, bizaro, GGG and Oling are all very good and experienced players and the notion of one of them leading us up the garden path scares the crap out of me.

To be completely honest, i have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind that either GGG or more likely HG is scum. Something just feels off going through this thread. I doubt Oling... but am weary too. Bizaro hasn't really stood out for me... which makes wonder why.

[dissentowner]

This is an easy vote for me, I should have stuck with my original instincts. Puxlut has the same suspicions, HG is directing the game and I believe he is a host for sure. I am also suspicious of Timbo. Notice both are after me because they know I am an experienced player and therefore a threat to the scum. Go back and look at the way HG has manipulated the votes and play. Hell, he even got me caught up in it in the last vote when he assured us all GS was a host. He also has to say "since I know I am town" constantly to try and get that to stick in everyone's head.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

How is a non-vote the same as a vote for the leader in any way. A non vote is hiding like a coward especially when you also refuse to provide your opinion on anything. I have not seen more cowardly selfish play.

You explained how yourself, by including me in the "quietly lynched GirlySports" category. As for your personal attack, what would be "cowardly and selfish" is playing the game in a way that I believe would be deterimental to the town just to avoid heat.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This is an easy vote for me, I should have stuck with my original instincts. Puxlut has the same suspicions, HG is directing the game and I believe he is a host for sure. I am also suspicious of Timbo. Notice both are after me because they know I am an experienced player and therefore a threat to the scum. Go back and look at the way HG has manipulated the votes and play. Hell, he even got me caught up in it in the last vote when he assured us all GS was a host. He also has to say "since I know I am town" constantly to try and get that to stick in everyone's head.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

Now your using puxs confirmed townie status to shelter your attack on HG. Remember that being confirm town doesnt make you right but it sure provides a convenient excuse for others to use to defend town lynches.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Ideally, for me, we would discuss the vote for a couple days and narrow it down to 3 people. Get 5 votes on each and let Puxlut decide the 6th and lynching vote at the deadline.

Might scare the scum letting a confirmed townie have the final say, get them more involved.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

Now your using puxs confirmed townie status to shelter your attack on HG. Remember that being confirm town doesnt make you right but it sure provides a convenient excuse for others to use to defend town lynches.

No I am not, I am pointing out the obvious here. I want us to succeed in weeding out the scum and for me that points to who is controlling the game here. I am a passenger, if I am not let me forever be known on CP as a lying dirty Canuck fan!

That's the thing... I may be town, but I may not necessarily be right.

[Mazrim]

For those who care, the Day 3 post has been updated with the flavour.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This is an easy vote for me, I should have stuck with my original instincts. Puxlut has the same suspicions, HG is directing the game and I believe he is a host for sure. I am also suspicious of Timbo. Notice both are after me because they know I am an experienced player and therefore a threat to the scum. Go back and look at the way HG has manipulated the votes and play. Hell, he even got me caught up in it in the last vote when he assured us all GS was a host. He also has to say "since I know I am town" constantly to try and get that to stick in everyone's head.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

Except the way you are playing isn't a threat to the hosts, you're playing under the radar.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He also has to say "since I know I am town" constantly to try and get that to stick in everyone's head.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I am a passenger, if I am not let me forever be known on CP as a lying dirty Canuck fan!

You don't say? Weird how you would call me out for that and then do it right after.