CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

A summary of what we currently know:

Oling presuming our agent isn't stupid is either town or host.

If Oling is town we know the spore is out of play today
If Oling is host there could be two turned right now.

If anyone passed the spore last night let the town know and we can lynch oling. This is unlikely.

SebC still waiting for your thoughts on yesterday as you failed to post them before the end of the day. I think your play like no scum would strategy is fooling people.

Since Girly was town I suspect one scum was mixing it up yesterday trying to lynch her and the others likely stayed on the sidelines

Pushing to lynch Girly
Oling - switched late
HG
Diss
Timbo
Bizaro86
Devo - I put devo and squigs in active but they were less vocal than others on this lid
Squiggs

Quietly lynched girly
Lego
Peanut
GGG - I include myself here as by the end of the day I was ready to vote her out based on me believing she was more likely scum then unturned. Feel free to move me to actively against if you'd like
ECF
SebC - voted to lynch her, unvoted then actively lurked the rest of the day

Actively Against -
Oling - at the end
GGG - at the start
MrKacjz
Party - less active than others
Pux - less active than others

I want to lynch someone on the quietly for lynch. These are the skaters. There is at least 1 sum in that group. I want to turn up the heat on. SebC.

vote sebC

[squiggs96]

8 posts since the game started.

Vote LegoMan

[GirlySports]

---- Death Post ----

It was fun being on this spaceship. I got to see space!!!!!
Hope y'all make it back as your normal selves

[dissentowner]

So we still will never know if GS actually had the spore? Assuming she did that now gives us a spore free day. What about Oling now, where is he? We need to work hard to figure out a host, won't be easy.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Well that was absolutely useless.
So did she send the spore to Timbo because he was runner up for votes? Or did she even have the spore in the first place?

If we're relying on an unturned passenger passing it on and reporting it honestly we still won't hear where it is until day 5. That's if girly had it and it's now with the captain. If girly didn't have it we could possibly hear from an unturned passenger today or tomorrow about who they passed it to. If that happens it pretty much guarantees oling to be scum.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

If we're relying on an unturned passenger passing it on and reporting it honestly we still won't hear where it is until day 5. That's if girly had it and it's now with the captain. If girly didn't have it we could possibly hear from an unturned passenger today or tomorrow about who they passed it to. If that happens it pretty much guarantees oling to be scum.

And all that is assuming the best case scenario that whoever gets the spore goes unturned. It could be a long time before we hear a reliable lead on the spore.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by GGG

A summary of what we currently know:

Oling presuming our agent isn't stupid is either town or host.

If Oling is town we know the spore is out of play today
If Oling is host there could be two turned right now.

If anyone passed the spore last night let the town know and we can lynch oling. This is unlikely.

SebC still waiting for your thoughts on yesterday as you failed to post them before the end of the day. I think your play like no scum would strategy is fooling people.

Since Girly was town I suspect one scum was mixing it up yesterday trying to lynch her and the others likely stayed on the sidelines

Pushing to lynch Girly
Oling - switched late
HG
Diss
Timbo
Bizaro86
Devo - I put devo and squigs in active but they were less vocal than others on this lid
Squiggs

Quietly lynched girly
Lego
Peanut
GGG - I include myself here as by the end of the day I was ready to vote her out based on me believing she was more likely scum then unturned. Feel free to move me to actively against if you'd like
ECF
SebC - voted to lynch her, unvoted then actively lurked the rest of the day

Actively Against -
Oling - at the end
GGG - at the start
MrKacjz
Party - less active than others
Pux - less active than others

I want to lynch someone on the quietly for lynch. These are the skaters. There is at least 1 sum in that group. I want to turn up the heat on. SebC.

vote sebC

Why do you throw that "less active than others" tag next to my name? Pretty much every post I wrote in that round was against taking oling's word about the spore!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So we still will never know if GS actually had the spore? Assuming she did that now gives us a spore free day. What about Oling now, where is he? We need to work hard to figure out a host, won't be easy.

This is a scummy post

It has lamenting the past day

A veiled but indirect attempt at creating a target

A generic time to role up ours leaves comment.

It's a useless post designed to appear town.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

8 posts since the game started.

Vote LegoMan

Crazy good contribution squiggs96!

I'm going to post my thoughts when I get home from work, but let's not forget the point of the game... weed out the scum, not less active town memebers.

I told you all not to vote for GirlySports, I even highly suggested it! But noooo, we had to go full 360 with the same conversation 90 times before you guys were willing to concider something else. Whomever was fanning that conversation deserves to have the spotlight on them.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

SebC still waiting for your thoughts on yesterday as you failed to post them before the end of the day.

[...]

Quietly lynched girly
SebC - voted to lynch her, unvoted then actively lurked the rest of the day

So it appears that my position was clear to you, yet you ask me for my thoughts.

For what it's worth, you're totally right. I wanted to lynch GirlySports, but I didn't want to hasten the end of the day. A non-vote is the same as a vote for the leader. So why did I need to spell that out for you?

[Oling_Roachinen]

So I gave GirlySports the spore and, like I said, I did think she had potential to be host but it also gave us the ability to look at the first day as whether it 'mattered' to the host. It ended up being town vs town, although a late reveal town power. So the additional information was the main reason I gave it over her compared to Timbo.

Of course if GirlySports was host with the spore, I thought we might have seen some more pushback with who I thought may have been working with her. The host still would have preferred a passenger lynch and spore staying in the night, but if she was just passenger there was some reason to sacrifice her, maybe a little bit less so if she was turned+spore carrier. Without that pushback and her last post (prior to me unvoting) being very much aligned with how I was feeling I thought she was town.

I think Timbo's our best bet. I think there's potential for mrkajz44's and his accusations against one another to be feigned and if either was host, I would instantly vote for the other. A Timbo host reveal would also allow us to see if people like Squiggs96 went after GirlySports because of the reasons they said they did or to stop any potential shift.

Dissentowner is still posting very inconspicuously in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I told you all not to vote for GirlySports, I even highly suggested it!

Yeah, and then all of 5 minutes later you were voting for her...

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Crazy good contribution squiggs96!

In comparison to your contribution so far, yeah, it is. All you do is sit back and play the "post count doesn't mean a thing" card, and now after declaring "I told you so" (although you voted for GS yourself), we probably won't hear from you for a while again. Just try to be an asset to the town and help us.

So if Oling told the truth, there are no turned players right now. If he played all of us, then there could possibly be two turned players. I think the latter is unrealistic because he'd be outed/under pressure soon if they lost a coin flip. Still don't really understand Olings late unvote after pushing for the lynch for the majority of the day.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

So it appears that my position was clear to you, yet you ask me for my thoughts.

For what it's worth, you're totally right. I wanted to lynch GirlySports, but I didn't want to hasten the end of the day. A non-vote is the same as a vote for the leader. So why did I need to spell that out for you?

There is a significant difference between you stating your position and me assuming your position.

How is a non-vote the same as a vote for the leader in any way. A non vote is hiding like a coward especially when you also refuse to provide your opinion on anything. I have not seen more cowardly selfish play.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by devo22

Still don't really understand Olings late unvote after pushing for the lynch for the majority of the day.

I gave her the spore leading to her lynch, there's no real way to escape blame for her death.

However, I had considered multiple options throughout the 'day' and the only reason my unvote was 'late' was the quick votes by Squiggs96 and hammer by Peanut. Otherwise, the day 2 deadline still wouldn't have passed yet...

But here's a better breakdown of the logic outside of my other posts on it, of course being completely moot now.

If GirlySports was host, then the first day it would have been a close vote between a host and smuggler. The host probably would try to save GirlySports by cushioning the votes on ActiveStick and the last 6 votes for him were:
Hockeyguy15, Timbo, devo22, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, East Coast Flame

My thinking was that if she was a host, likely one of those people was her partner. And if they were they wouldn't be passive in this lynch as it would mean losing the spore and a host.

I knew I wasn't trying to protect GirlySports.
Hockeyguy15 was very pro-lynching GirlySports.
East Coast Flame was very quick to vote GirlySports.
devo22 didn't actively oppose the lynch and neither did Timbo.

So that just left GGG. Initially, had GirlySports been revealed host, he would have been my next target. But as the day went on, even when GirlySports' fate wasn't looking great, he still stuck with what he was saying and I no longer believed he was working with GirlySports.

So following GGG's logic, I went for the person I believe was most likely host as the Government Agent would have been able to clean up GirlySports if needed.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

From my perspective - I'm very confident that Girly is town, so once you are investigated and proven town... well that's 3 town members proven if everyone includes themselves. Not to mention lynching someone else. Just my opinion though.

The tone of Girlys posts since she found out she had the spore passed really give me the town vibe.

But, I don't disagree (and can't really argue) with the logic of voting for GirlySports (I just don't believe she turned) - so i'll go along with you guys for this day

unvote

Vote: GirlySports

The reason we had that conversation over and over again was you voted for her on bad logic. If you thought she was town you shouldn't have voted for her. Voting and going inactive then claiming you didn't want to lynch her is anti town.


I'm good with Lego, Seb, and probably Diss today. I need to go through and make a Diss case though. He had that wierd reaction to two votes day one and his first post day 3 was scummy as well. He also ignored the logic that should have been used to make the girly decision and latched onto the stop the spore thing with Lego. Was there scum discussion to vote out girly because they wanted to stop the spore as it was a safe position for everybody to take?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Crazy good contribution squiggs96!

I'm going to post my thoughts when I get home from work, but let's not forget the point of the game... weed out the scum, not less active town memebers.

I told you all not to vote for GirlySports, I even highly suggested it! But noooo, we had to go full 360 with the same conversation 90 times before you guys were willing to concider something else. Whomever was fanning that conversation deserves to have the spotlight on them.

Thank you. I appreciate the admiration.

So you told us all not to vote Girly and then still voted for her yourself. Maybe if you didn't have a mixed message in that post, or you were actively involved in the discussion things would have gone differently. By saying not to vote, yet voting, you are covering both sides to appear blameless. I agree we should all be hunting for, and voting out, hosts. There are going to be town casualties, so when those happen I'd prefer they were players that aren't helping or contributing. You are doing neither of these things at this point.

[mrkajz44]

While Seb has been a very different player the whole game, the lack of voting doesn't sit great with me. I suppose I could see his side that he was going to vote Girly, and thus a non-vote means you support the leading vote person, but it just seems like a sneaky way around it. Easy to say in the posts now that he supported the vote, but 10 pages later when someone is running through vote patterns, his "support" against Girly won't be as easy to document.

I don't mind Lego's low post count, he does seem to to have pretty well thought out posts, that have good quality. I do not like him saying "well I don't think we should vote out Girly, but here's my vote!" Seems like a solid way to play both sides of the fence. I don't quite know where I stand on Lego after that move - moving up on my radar for sure.

Timbo has not moved off my top spot for now though. He was the third vote on Girly, after being the fourth vote for Active - nice and in the middle. His reason for voting Girly was a somewhat reasonable one - he wanted to stop the spore. I personally don't agree with that reasoning, but there were a number of people in town that obviously agreed, so I can't single him out for that specifically.

TL;dr - Timbo is top of my list, but I didn't like how Lego and Seb played yesterday, especially around the voting.

[East Coast Flame]

I too have bad feelings about Lego and Seb. I don't feel great about Timbo, but he isn't as high on my list as some of you have him.

I would like to add Puxlut to my suspicious list. Just seems like she's trying to blend in and not make any waves. Didn't vote for Girly, but I suspect the plan was to not have all scum vote for Girly as they could see the way the vote was going pretty early.

[bizaro86]

@GGG: SecB is playing a strategy that is practically designed to draw negative attention to himself. Also, he hasn't really changed his strategy since it became obvious it was drawing negative attention to himself. If he was host, he'd have two other hosts in the scum thread screaming at him to just apologize for being cryptic and play like a regular player. He has enough good ideas that it would be easy for him to be seen as a contributing town player. If he was host I'm nearly 100% sure that's how he'd play it. I say again I'm more sure SebC is town than anyone else in the game other than myself, so I won't vote for him. I realize this puts me at risk for being lynched if voting for him takes off and he flips scum, but I'm confident enough in my judgement to take that risk.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

@GGG: SecB is playing a strategy that is practically designed to draw negative attention to himself. Also, he hasn't really changed his strategy since it became obvious it was drawing negative attention to himself. If he was host, he'd have two other hosts in the scum thread screaming at him to just apologize for being cryptic and play like a regular player. He has enough good ideas that it would be easy for him to be seen as a contributing town player. If he was host I'm nearly 100% sure that's how he'd play it. I say again I'm more sure SebC is town than anyone else in the game other than myself, so I won't vote for him. I realize this puts me at risk for being lynched if voting for him takes off and he flips scum, but I'm confident enough in my judgement to take that risk.

I think you're really giving him too much credit for doing nothing