[GT] Canada Election 2025

[Sylvanfan]

I expect it's a minority and initially Im not too excited about that. But with the NDP being pretty beat up, I imagine they may be more willing to go along with the Liberals so that they can rebuild themselves. If the Conservatives tried to force an election in 6 months I think it would go badly for them and result in a Liberal majority. So rather than empty what's left of the coffers for minimal upside, I think the NDP might try and buy themselves some time as they rebuild. Politically it might be best if they can say we didn't force an election that people didn't want. But everything the Liberals did was Liberal policy.

The country was looking for change, and they were the one party who appeared most like the one from the last election. The anti-incumbent sentiment is still there, and they found out the hard way.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I know a pretty diverse group of people... I've never met anyone who is truly an Alberta separatist.

Yet last night so much of the coverage was about separatists in Alberta.

Is separatism actually a thing here? We don't even have a separatist party like BQ.

https://www.thefp.com/p/meet-the-alb...eparatists-who

Polls show that over a third of Albertans support full independence from Canada, and 15 percent back American annexation—the highest level of support of any province in the nation.

Jeff Rath, a Canadian constitutional lawyer, rancher, and racehorse breeder who lives outside Calgary, wants his home province of Alberta to become independent and join the United States.

The 60-year-old said he will soon lead a delegation of like-minded Albertans to Washington, D.C., for meetings with senior figures in the Trump administration. He calls it a “fact-finding” mission to gauge whether Washington sees value in welcoming the resource-rich, right-leaning province into the fold. Although no date for the visit has been set and the White House did not return a request for comment about whether a meeting would take place, Rath told me he is certain he could make the case.

“Albertans are sick and tired of being overtaxed and overregulated by morons who believe that punitive taxes on working families will change the weather,” said Rath, who is an expert in indigenous rights and environmental law, and has led his own practice, Rath & Company, since 1995. “We’re more similar to people in Montana than people in Toronto and Montreal. Everybody wants to work hard, make their own money. They want to keep the government the hell out.”

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

The ball is also in the CPCs court too, they have the choice of blindly voting no to everything or actually working with the libs to get concessions for their constituents.

Not a chance this happens. It never does. If someone wants to break ranks with their party they'll just leave and sit independent or cross the floor.

The reality is that the CPC will not support LPC measures, and if the NDP and BQ are their crutch that's just inherently bad for this province. So much for the dream of any energy infrastructure getting through early in response to the Trump stupidity.

Originally Posted by CroFlames

With PP in charge, I see them sabotaging every Liberal proposal even if they cut off their own nose in the process.

PP cannot realistically remain leader after losing the biggest lead the CPC have had in many election cycles and losing his own riding. Also, if it's a minority, they don't necessarily have a full term to prepare for the next election, they need to get their candidate in front of people.

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I expect it's a minority and initially Im not too excited about that. But with the NDP being pretty beat up, I imagine they may be more willing to go along with the Liberals so that they can rebuild themselves.

I strongly doubt it. That kowtowing is what got the NDP in this mess to begin with and they're unlikely to repeat that strategy. They're not going to sign on to another election until they're sure they will improve their position from the last one but after this beatdown that's a pretty low bar.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I'm not very knowledgeable of the power players in the NDP but I think that Julien could be a good leader. He seems smart, likeable, reasonable and has been a strong voice in committees.

Heather McPherson will be the next NDP leader, she represents the Alberta faction, which we know can be mobilized if it uses more of the ANDP rhetoric.

[GirlySports]

It's pretty close to a majority and the Conservatives are wounded even though they got 140+ seats. No leader, no way PP is staying on, that would be death to the party if they are that stupid.

Therefore, there will be no appetite to topple the government for at least 2 years to get past whatever threats are coming from the US. Government needs to be unified, whoever the leader is. If the conservatives vote no to everything, they will just look stupid because it only takes a few NDP/Green/Bloc to vote yes.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I expect it's a minority and initially Im not too excited about that. But with the NDP being pretty beat up, I imagine they may be more willing to go along with the Liberals so that they can rebuild themselves. If the Conservatives tried to force an election in 6 months I think it would go badly for them and result in a Liberal majority. So rather than empty what's left of the coffers for minimal upside, I think the NDP might try and buy themselves some time as they rebuild. Politically it might be best if they can say we didn't force an election that people didn't want. But everything the Liberals did was Liberal policy.

The country was looking for change, and they were the one party who appeared most like the one from the last election. The anti-incumbent sentiment is still there, and they found out the hard way.

I think it would be political suicide for the NDP to go along with the liberals. They need to carve out a hill to die on.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It exists but it's pretty niche. Nothing to worry about IMO.

30% of Albertans:

https://angusreid.org/smith-shapiro-sovereignty/

New data from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute finds that while Manning is not wrong that Western separatism sentiment may increase if the Liberals win federally, Carney has the data in his favour. Indeed, if the Liberals were to form the next government, approximately three-in-10 in Alberta (30%) and Saskatchewan (33%) say they would vote to leave federation, whether to form their own country or to join the United States. While this is significant, the vast majority still say they would vote no in each province.

[Fuzz]

Alberta would have been far better off electing several Liberal MP's this time who could have worked with Carney for Alberta's interests. Instead, voters make the dumb choice to keep doing the same thing we do every election, with the same results.

[GirlySports]

30% of Albertans is all talk. Put a real vote in front of them and see if they have any balls.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by troutman

30% of Albertans:

https://angusreid.org/smith-shapiro-sovereignty/

That poll actually shows support waning from a year ago. And when the rubber hits the road the suppport will melt away.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by troutman

30% of Albertans:

https://angusreid.org/smith-shapiro-sovereignty/

To put those numbers in perspective 30% of Albertans is less than how many didn't vote for the CPC. So ultimately enough to win 3 seats. It isn't a politically significant number.

[Drak]

If it’s 30 percent that’s an interesting number. 30 percent also seems to be the number associated with Trump’s MAGA base.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Alberta would have been far better off electing several Liberal MP's this time who could have worked with Carney for Alberta's interests. Instead, voters make the dumb choice to keep doing the same thing we do every election, with the same results.

But they though PP would win. "THE LOST DECADE!".

Always backing the wrong horse.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Alberta would have been far better off electing several Liberal MP's this time who could have worked with Carney for Alberta's interests. Instead, voters make the dumb choice to keep doing the same thing we do every election, with the same results.

Yup. Liberal from Alberta is an almost surefire cabinet position.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Drak

If it’s 30 percent that’s an interesting number. 30 percent also seems to be the number associated with Trump’s MAGA base.

Sure but people vote Republican for many reasons, not just Trump.

However, a referendum is one question and you're not winning anything with 30% even if it's really that high.

[belsarius]

Surprised (in a good way) how close to proportional this ended up being. Seats compared to popular vote..

Liberal overperformed 5.5% (14.7% 2021)
CPC .6% (1.5%)
Bloc .3% (1.8%)
NDP -4.3% (-10.4%)
Green -.9% (-1.7%)

As usual the Liberals overperformed the most and the NDP underperformed the most, but compared to 2021 this is pretty much how parliament should look as per the popular vote.

[Drak]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure but people vote Republican for many reasons, not just Trump.

However, a referendum is one question and you're not winning anything with 30% even if it's really that high.

I’m referring to his baked in MAGA base.

[Drak]

Happy to see Stephanie McClean won in my riding. Two of us in our household voted for her.

[direwolf]

I think the big lesson for the CPC is that Canada is, and always has been a centre-left country, and that MAGA style politics is a huge turn-off for the majority of Canadians. If the Cons had ditched PP, elected a more serious candidate, and dropped the Maple MAGA bulls***, they could have easily won this election.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Surprised (in a good way) how close to proportional this ended up being. Seats compared to popular vote..

Liberal overperformed 5.5% (14.7% 2021)
CPC .6% (1.5%)
Bloc .3% (1.8%)
NDP -4.3% (-10.4%)
Green -.9% (-1.7%)

As usual the Liberals overperformed the most and the NDP underperformed the most, but compared to 2021 this is pretty much how parliament should look as per the popular vote.

The Conservatives received ~42% of the popular vote, and progressives won 51% across all parties. The CPC really needs to stare those numbers in the face if they wanto to govern. Especially against what looks like a centrist LPC formation.