Russia invades Ukraine

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by JoseCuervo

No I don’t, honestly. Yes the threat is real, but that’s why countries have them, the threat. He knows just as well that if he ever used one Russia would be destroyed by them. If there is any upside to nuclear weapons it’s mutual assured destruction.

When we say things like “there’s going to be nuclear holocaust”, or “WWIII will start if the west does that” we are helping Putin win by believing and capitulating to his threats.

The thing is though Putin is already unhinged. If the west attacks Russia proper and he sees the end is near, what stops him from trying to take everyone else out with him?

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Twitter tells me that Anonymous has taken down RT website (and replaced with Zelenskys plea to Russians) and the ministry of defense websites. Anybody able to confirm?

False. Both are online. RT site shows a DDOS guard and then let you in. Ministry of defense looks like usual

[calumniate]

i'm having a hard time focusing today.. it's too much

[karl262]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If the West started shelling the Russian mainland, you don't think he'd launch nukes? I'm certain he would.

maybe Russia would do a nuclear test or in a hail mary move use a single small one to EMP attack a localized area, get everyone to back away.

If NATO troops set foot in Russia...different story, but that's not very likely.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin's doesn't appear to be in a stable state of mind. His latest moves are also puzzling and have seemingly no rational explanation.

The points in this post are the most plausible answers I have seen so far. It's really a lot of the cold-war old guard and oligarchy determining that the path to maintaining their control, power, and wealth is to re-start Russian isolation and self-determinism in the face of the solid bloc of allies in the West (EU + America).

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...&postcount=725

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by JoseCuervo

Don’t be so dramatic. Putin isn’t dropping nukes on anyone, even if the west challenged him by military means.

It’s difficult to imagine a hot war between NATO and Russia not escalating to nuclear. I mean, that’s the reason why NATO and the Soviet Union never fought a war despite facing each other across borders bristling with weapons and troops for decades. Mutual assured destruction works.

[JoseCuervo]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The thing is though Putin is already unhinged. If the west attacks Russia proper and he sees the end is near, what stops him from trying to take everyone else out with him?

I agree with you he is unhinged. But he “loves” Russia more than anything. He is not going to risk it’s complete annihilation.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by peter12

I also wasn’t the only one expressing skepticism over a possible invasion. Anyway, reasonable people change their minds as new information becomes available.

I didn't think they would do it either.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by JoseCuervo

I agree with you he is unhinged. But he “loves” Russia more than anything. He is not going to risk it’s complete annihilation.

If the Russia he loves is at risk of annihilation through defeat at the hands at NATO, what, in your mind, would stop him?

Without nuclear, it's a war Russia stands no chance of winning. If he loves it, why would he give it up?

[afc wimbledon]

Putin's survival is dependant on not losing, he loses and its rope and a lamp post time ala Romania and he is well aware of this, he'd go nuclear to stay alive

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Twitter tells me that Anonymous has taken down RT website (and replaced with Zelenskys plea to Russians) and the ministry of defense websites. Anybody able to confirm?

Appears to be fine to me.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Putin's survival is dependant on not losing, he loses and its rope and a lamp post time ala Romania and he is well aware of this, he'd go nuclear to stay alive

I dont believe this. His legacy would forever be tainted knowing that he was the man who caused nuclear war to turn all of Russia into rubble (along with western cities as well). He would be the biggest source of shame for Russia, and that's an impressive list to top.

[PeteMoss]

I'm not sure the US will do the SWIFT ban as it could put at risk the USD status as the reserve currency and potentially strengthen the case of using China's currency.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

So at what point does Canada send troops then? Poland? Latvia? We'd be obligated to at that point... but then WW3 is started by then.

We are sending troops but at this point, its going to be pretty limited. I shudder to think how Canada's Military is going to do in a actual shooting war against a major power. We're tough and able, but equipment wise, we're far behind the pack.



This is a whole different level then fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, or even for example Saddams military in Iraq.


Because of our piss poor procurement, and allowing our forces to fall behind and rust out, we would not be much of a deterrence.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

We are sending troops but at this point, its going to be pretty limited. I shudder to think how Canada's Military is going to do in a actual shooting war against a major power. We're tough and able, but equipment wise, we're far behind the pack.



This is a whole different level then fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, or even for example Saddams military in Iraq.


Because of our piss poor procurement, and allowing our forces to fall behind and rust out, we would not be much of a deterrence.

Would the US give us better weapons if we were out there running around being out gunned? (Obviously not planes, but smaller arms)

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I dont believe this. His legacy would forever be tainted knowing that he was the man who caused nuclear war to turn all of Russia into rubble (along with western cities as well). He would be the biggest source of shame for Russia, and that's an impressive list to top.

Putin would take this over humiliation of being trialed and hanged in front of his own people. He will never accept a defeat, ever.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

The technological advances have negated the 3-1 ratio for attacking to defending troops, but as I said before I still hope a lot of body bags go home to The Motherland.

Urban fighting, if the defenders are totally committed, is one of the last areas where a small force can really bog down an attacker.

Yes sir, you're absolutely right, now that artillery is extremely accurate they don't need hundreds of guns or rocket artillery anymore, especially with battlefield integration, satellite's and drone technology. That can actually speed up a advance as your not waiting for massive artillery support. Russia also has excellent counter battery technology, so being an artillary soldier is a miserable experience in a modern battlefield.


Also modern battle tanks are extremely fast, their main cannon round has extreme range and accuracy. APC can fight in and out at high speed as well.


While a 3-1 advantage was a requirement in any Russian or Soviet battleplan, its not necessary now, but the Russian's still have a massive advantage in tanks, planes, helicopters, APC's, AFV's and men.


The terrible thing is that Ukraine is now encouraging their civillians to take up arms. So yeah, we'll have a building to building battle in major centers that will guarantee extreme civilian casualties.

[CroFlames]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...-says-liveblog

Russia’s drive to seize control of Ukraine has lost momentum amid stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, both on the ground and in the air, a senior US defence official says.

“Their momentum, particularly as it comes to Kyiv, has slowed over the last 24 hours,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing on condition of anonymity.

Russian forces have yet to seize any of Ukraine’s major cities, or achieve air superiority over the country, the official said.

“They have not achieved the progress that we believe they anticipated they would … [and] are meeting more resistance than they expected” the official added. “A good indicator of that is no population centers have been taken. None.”

This is something at least. I was worried we'd be reading about the fall of Kyiv this evening.

[Cappy]

I couldn't see Russia using nuclear weapons until Putin's life and power was threatened by outside forces.

I can't see him using nukes in a scenario similar to desert storm. Limited engagement to free Ukraine while stopping at the Russian Border.

It would also be unlikely if limited military barrages or bombings take place on military targets within Russia - although reprisal missions would certainly take place in NATO countries.

If NATO were to view the end game of intervention as unconditional surrender, then yes, Putin - perhaps fearing for his life - could raise the idea of nuclear retaliation. But in that case, i could not see China sitting on the fence.

I am also not even remotely qualified here. My poli sci degree is a distant memory lol. just my two cents

[nik-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

Familiar narratives.