2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

BAD:
- Brouwer
- Neal
- Raymond

GOOD:
- Ryan
- Engelland
- Frolik
- Markstrom

MARGINAL:
- Hiller
- Czarnik
- Tanev?

It's not great, but it is also not that bad, either. What did I miss? (You will notice I am counting only multi-year deals )

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UFA signings are never going to be that great, since by default you're almost always overpaying for the benefit of getting someone on the open market. Even Engelland, who I agree was a good player for the club, was overpaid.

While it's too early to judge Markstrom and Tanev, I like the former but unfortunately see the latter as the next Brouwer quality signing.

Wasn't Stone technically signed as a UFA? That might be the worst contract Treliving has signed. Maybe second worst next to Neal.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Interestingly, The Athletic just released its top 100 players in the NHL. The Flames have 3 players on the list: Matthew Tkachuk (top-end all-star), Mark Giordano (bottom-end all-star) and Johnny Gaudreau (top-end top-line player).

There are first and second tier MVP level players (7 players), then first and second tier franchise level players (18 players), then first and second tier all-star players (25 players), then first, second and third top line players (50 players).

So, the Athletic believes the Flames have about their proportion of players in terms of numbers, but the Flames don't have any high, high-end players (top 25 players). But Tkachuk and Giordano are top 50, and Gaudreau is top 67.

Anyways, the reason I placed this here is that Pierre Luc Dubois is ranked in the top 67 with Gaudreau, so the Athletic thinks Pierre Luc Dubois is on the same level as Gaudreau. Also, Monahan didn't even make the list, so the Athletic thinks Pierre Luc Dubois is far superior to Monahan.

Anyways, I think this means the Flames should be willing to offer a slight sweetener to Gaudreau to get PLD because of age and position. But the sweetener should only be slight. However, the Flames should be willing to offer a significant sweetener to Monahan.

I think a 1st round pick would be significant.

I have to say, some of that list was pretty surprising... RNH ranked and not Monahan? Doesn't make sense to me. Petry ahead of Monahan makes absolutely no sense...I could go on: McDonagh, Muzzin, Fiala, etc... Counting stats may not be everything, but Monahan has been so much better than these players (I'm not including Muzzin in the counting stats, but there is no way he holds more value). Petry's best season was 46pts and 13 goals... I know I'm a bit biased but I can't figure that out.

Wow. Maybe a bit early because I overlooked Petry being a Dman ... but I still think Monhahn should be on any list that RNH is on.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah the list has some flaws for sure. Really though the problem is I feel like from 50-150 it’s hard to really break players apart for an exercise like this.

And really this is just based on Dom's model...then he got some feedback from people but you can tell the real driving factor his is his model.

Monahan is getting pretty underrated though. I've seen some other comments this week too about how all his goals are PP goals, which isn't true at all.

Since he joined the league he has 135 even strength goals, that ranks him 5th among Centers (as listed by NHL.com) and 13th overall. Maybe he isn't the most complete center but he still does the hardest thing to do in the NHL at an elite level - and that's score goals.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I have to say, some of that list was pretty surprising... RNH ranked and not Monahan? Doesn't make sense to me. Petry ahead of Monahan makes absolutely no sense...I could go on: McDonagh, Muzzin, Fiala, etc... Counting stats may not be everything, but Monahan has been so much better than these players (I'm not including Muzzin in the counting stats, but there is no way he holds more value). Petry's best season was 46pts and 13 goals... I know I'm a bit biased but I can't figure that out.

Wow. Maybe a bit early because I overlooked Petry being a Dman ... but I still think Monhahn should be on any list that RNH is on.

That's fair. I was also surprised not to see Lindholm there. To be fair, numerically speaking, there are 93 first line forwards in the NHL. And this list doesn't even have 93 forwards, so its not a huge insult not to be listed here. Its a pretty huge honor to be listed in the inner circle of the NHL's first line forwards. We have two of them.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Nelson

That's fair. I was also surprised not to see Lindholm there. To be fair, numerically speaking, there are 93 first line forwards in the NHL. And this list doesn't even have 93 forwards, so its not a huge insult not to be listed here. Its a pretty huge honor to be listed in the inner circle of the NHL's first line forwards. We have two of them.

Fair enough... not having Lindholm there is even more of a headscratcher for me... I didn't realize that. I'm just surprised at some of the names ahead of those guys... really trying to take my homer glasses of here... but these lists are usually headscratchers anyways, and this one appears very east (toronto) biased... How is Nylander that high up? I'd take Bo Horvat or Brady Tkachuk over him any day of the week.

[CliffFletcher]

Emerging #1 centers are the most valuable assets in the NHL. They’re rarely available in trades and never available in free agency. You pretty much have to draft them, and usually with a top-8 OA pick.

There will be multiple teams making serious offers for Dubois. CBJ will likely get back a front-line player plus a top prospect or first round pick.

[MrMike]

We’ve all talked about Monahan for PLD, but would anyone be interested if it took Lindholm instead?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Fair enough... not having Lindholm there is even more of a headscratcher for me... I didn't realize that. I'm just surprised at some of the names ahead of those guys... really trying to take my homer glasses of here... but these lists are usually headscratchers anyways, and this one appears very east (toronto) biased... How is Nylander that high up? I'd take Bo Horvat or Brady Tkachuk over him any day of the week.

I guess it depends what you value in how they would rank.

Often with these types of lists, it starts and almost stops with offensive production.

Nylander is a bigger producer than the other two while getting less ice time.

Im with you in that i would rather have either of the other guys on my team if i have to pick just one, but there are viable arguments to say Nylander is a better player.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by MrMike

We’ve all talked about Monahan for PLD, but would anyone be interested if it took Lindholm instead?

No.

Lindholm is our best all around player, is young and under contract for a few years still. He is also our only high end RHed forward.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by MrMike

We’ve all talked about Monahan for PLD, but would anyone be interested if it took Lindholm instead?

Its Monahan that needs to go. Hopefully the Jackets scouting staff hasnt pegged him as such a one dimensional player and keep looking at his stats. His age position and production have to be something the Jackets look at.

Build a deal around Monahan. Zary and draft picks can be in play. Kylington, Bennett, Hanifin are also players that should be considered if you need to build a multi player trade that interests Columbus. Youth with potential. I'm so sold on PLD I would consider Pelletier as the ultimate sweetener if Zary cant get it done.

Again players like Dubois DO NOT EVER come available in trade. We all know the Flames need a big shake up and acquiring a 22 year old center who is coming into his own is exactly the best this team could possibly do.

You need to give up to get. It's that simple. This is the type of player that makes your lineup so much better for years to come. Young, physical, skilled, 200 foot player. A player you build around for years to come.

The time has come to shake this team up. There isnt going to be a better player to throw your chips at. This Dubois situation totally reminds me of the Bruins trading Joe Thornton. I really hope the Flames can put together the package that makes the Jackets pull the trigger to put PLD in a Flames jersey.

We have the assets to do something without ripping our team apart. Make it happen Mr. Treliving. Now is the time.

[wretched34]

Below are 3 stat lines, one of which is Monahan's first 3 seasons, one is Dubois' first 3 seasons, and the other is Monahan's last 3 seasons:

G: 87 A: 107 PTS: 194 - GPG: 0.39 APG: 0.48 PPG: 0.87
G: 65 A: 93 PTS: 158 - GPG: 0.28 APG: 0.40 PPG: 0.68
G: 80 A: 79 PTS: 159 - GPG: 0.34 APG: 0.33 PPG: 0.67

From listening to some talk about Dubois, and how he's miles ahead of Monahan, it's obvious which stat line is his, right?

[SnipeShow]

How do people feel about a Johnny for PLD? May take Johnny and a 2nd due to position and UFA vs RFA at contracts end. If Columbus is willing to take that we would have some incredibly solid strength at center, could absorb an expansion loss of Backlund very easily plus freeing up his 5m salary, and have Tkachuk, Lindy, Mang, Dube as your top 6 wingers. As much as I like to think Johnny would resign here I think Mony is more likely to at a more palatable cap hit and plays the more important position.

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[Mass_nerder]

I think it's been pointed out a few times, but I think Columbus is going to need a centre in return.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by wretched34

Below are 3 stat lines, one of which is Monahan's first 3 seasons, one is Dubois' first 3 seasons, and the other is Monahan's last 3 seasons:

G: 87 A: 107 PTS: 194 - GPG: 0.39 APG: 0.48 PPG: 0.87
G: 65 A: 93 PTS: 158 - GPG: 0.28 APG: 0.40 PPG: 0.68
G: 80 A: 79 PTS: 159 - GPG: 0.34 APG: 0.33 PPG: 0.67

From listening to some talk about Dubois, and how he's miles ahead of Monahan, it's obvious which stat line is his, right?

If the argument was based on points alone, you'd be going somewhere.

But the argument is based on literally everything outside of point production, in which PLD is significantly ahead of Monahan on all fronts, and considering the two are equal in terms of point production over their first three years, I think you're making the opposite point you're intending to make.

[Monahammer]

I'd rather keep Mony than Johnny. If CLB is willing to trade Johnny for Dubois and deplete their centre stock then we should jump at it.

[Yrebmi]

Maybe CLB wants a clear of waivers Ryan included.
Monahan, Ryan, 2nd for Dubois?

[wretched34]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

If the argument was based on points alone, you'd be going somewhere.

But the argument is based on literally everything outside of point production, in which PLD is significantly ahead of Monahan on all fronts, and considering the two are equal in terms of point production over their first three years, I think you're making the opposite point you're intending to make.

What area's are those?
PLD's face off % = 44.6 - Monahan's Face off % = 52.6
Monahan had 43 takeaways, PLD had 27
Monahan had 36 Giveaways, PLD had 46
SAT% Monahan = 49.7% PLD = 51.1%

I'm not seeing a huge gap between these two players, especially one that would require a big add from the Flames...

I think as Flames fans, we see the worst in our players, while seeing the best in other teams. Would PLD solve the Flames problems if Monahan was gone, I don't think so. Would he be better? Maybe, a bit, but not enough to take us from pretender to contender.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Maybe CLB wants a clear of waivers Ryan included.
Monahan, Ryan, 2nd for Dubois?

Maybe I’m nuts but Monahan for Dubois 1 for 1 is about all I’d do. I have no idea why so many posters feel that we’d need to add in this deal. Monahan is still young and he’s proven. Dubois is younger but you’re gambling on him.

The guy had one monster game in the playoffs, but how quickly we forget that it was in response to being benched the game before.

No way we add. 1 for 1 is fair to me.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

If the argument was based on points alone, you'd be going somewhere.

But the argument is based on literally everything outside of point production, in which PLD is significantly ahead of Monahan on all fronts, and considering the two are equal in terms of point production over their first three years, I think you're making the opposite point you're intending to make.

Advanced stats actually show that Dubois isn't much better defensively. He's a little better but he's not a complete 200ft center yet.

Sure maybe he's a bit more physical. But people are making him out to be young Patrice Bergeron or Ryan O'Reilly...which he is not.

Last year for Dubois he had (Draft+4 season):

GP: 70
G: 18
A: 31
P: 49

GPG: 0.25
PPG: 0.7

And hockey viz isolated impact was +9.9% offense (more xG generated with him on the ice) and +6.0 (more xG given up with him on the ice).

At the same age (Draft+4 season) Monahan had:

GP: 82
G: 27
A: 31
P: 58

GPG: 0.33
PPG: 0.70

And his hockey viz isolated impact was +5.5% offense, and +6.6% defense. It's also not considering that the next two seasons saw a bit of a step up in Monahan's game, before a bit of a set back last year. So you're also selling low on Monahan, while hoping that Dubois actually continues in his development.

So really if you think you're not getting a player that substantially better defensively. You're just getting a Monahan that's 4 years younger, and bit more physical.

Originally Posted by wretched34

What area's are those?
PLD's face off % = 44.6 - Monahan's Face off % = 52.6
Monahan had 43 takeaways, PLD had 27
Monahan had 36 Giveaways, PLD had 46
SAT% Monahan = 49.7% PLD = 51.1%

I'm not seeing a huge gap between these two players, especially one that would require a big add from the Flames...

I think as Flames fans, we see the worst in our players, while seeing the best in other teams. Would PLD solve the Flames problems if Monahan was gone, I don't think so. Would he be better? Maybe, a bit, but not enough to take us from pretender to contender.

Originally Posted by N-E-B

Maybe I’m nuts but Monahan for Dubois 1 for 1 is about all I’d do. I have no idea why so many posters feel that we’d need to add in this deal. Monahan is still young and he’s proven. Dubois is younger but you’re gambling on him.

The guy had one monster game in the playoffs, but how quickly we forget that it was in response to being benched the game before.

No way we add. 1 for 1 is fair to me.

You have to add but not nearly as much as people here are making it seem like. You need to add mostly because Dubois is 4 years younger and has more years of team control left.

Monahan+1st for Dubois is probably what the deal would look like and would be a fair deal. And honestly that still feels like the Flames are giving away a really good asset for what might not actually be an upgrade on the ice.

That also doesn't consider that Dubois is the one that asked for a trade (generally reduces value), and doesn't seem to like playing in a more defensive system under Torts in Columbus. People focus on the one really good playoff game but Trots and Dubois didn't seem to see eye to eye about defensive responsibilities all year last year.

Honestly if Columbus is looking to make a trade I don't see a center available on the market that would be better than Monahan who also has a comparable cap hit.

[wretched34]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Monahan+1st for Dubois is probably what the deal would look like and would be a fair deal. And honestly that still feels like the Flames are giving away a really good asset for what might not actually be an upgrade on the ice.

That also doesn't consider that Dubois is the one that asked for a trade (generally reduces value), and doesn't seem to like playing in a more defensive system under Torts in Columbus. People focus on the one really good playoff game but Trots and Dubois didn't seem to see eye to eye about defensive responsibilities all year last year.

Honestly if Columbus is looking to make a trade I don't see a center available on the market that would be better than Monahan who also has a comparable cap hit.

There's no way I'd do Monahan + a First, especially now, leading into a shortened season.
You can't risk the chemistry Monahan has with the other forwards, and hope Dubois comes in, and immediately fits in as well or better.
Not to mention the quarantine issue, we could be without a 1C for the first few games.
If this is a move that could be done, it needs to be in the off season, when the Flames know their first rounder is in the 20-26 range, and there's a full offseason for Dubois to get reps in with the wingers. Even then, I'd be hesitant.