I realize this is small change as far as sanctions go, but I love the piling on where ever possible.
IIHF has suspended both Russia and Belarus from ALL international competition until further notice. Effects not only the upcoming World Juniors but several other tournaments, and also Russia hosting next years event.
list of events affected:
2022 IIHF Continental Cup (4-6 March 2022)
-Belarus club team HK Gomel would not participate
2022 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship (21 April-01 May 2022)
-Russia and Belarus men’s U18 teams would not participate
2022 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship (13-29 May 2022)
-ROC and Belarus men’s national teams would not participate
2022 IIHF Ice Hockey U18 Women’s World Championship (Dates TBD)
-Russia women’s U18 national team would not participate
2022 IIHF World Junior Championship (Dates TBD)
-Russia men’s U20 national team would not participate
2022 IIHF Ice Hockey Women’s World Championship (26 August-4 September 2022)
-ROC women’s national team would not participate
Interesting string of tweets here with a direct link to an archived copy of the article that was prematurely released (and subsequently removed) by Russian state owned news agency RIA Novosti highlighting reasons for why the invasion occurred.
The article translates fairly easily to english for those interested.
Can't they do something to make the road that the convoy is on impassable? Like, take out large sections of the road all along the route into the city?
The longer the thing takes to get anywhere the more likely a bunch of it runs out of fuel. Its cold in Ukraine right now.. so unlikely they are able to shut down engines for a lot of it.
So what would be a plausible off ramp for Putin that would result in a ceasefire?
Smart move if that is what it is, I know everyone wants to see Putin pay for what he's done, but this is an actual feasible strategy to stop the suffering.
Things have taken a turn for the worse. There is now fighting within her village with Russian soldiers shootings at residence. Today some brave piece of #### Russian soldier decided to shoot her 25 year old female friend for reasons unknown. Such a brave act. ####ers. There is a large shell/mortar crater hole a couple meters from her apartment.
They now have a 7th person in their single room apartment, as her step-dad's daughter showed up. Last night my wife slept on the floor by the door, as it was away from the windows and a small place of refuge. She cannot even fathom leaving the country, making her way to Poland where I am, or moving to Canada like we are supposed to do in 2 months. All she can think of is survival. 100% of her attention is focused on that. She has stopped crying. She has run out of tears and says she is physically unable to do so. She needs all her attention focused on living from hour to hour. I told her I will cry for her instead (which I occasionally do, and I am NOT a crier), and to save her power.
In my first OP I had mentioned how I was completely against this trip months ago, as the build up was ongoing since November and things escalating by the week. After days and nights of arguing with each other as her departure day approached, it was her parent's who kind of tipped her over the edge to come visit. They would send her texts of the Russian propaganda news, such as the troops are being withdrawn, Putin doesn't want to invade, all western hysteria, etc. I would counter with news sources showing the opposite. Propaganda is a real thing. And it worked in much of Ukraine.
Today she told me that her Mom apologized to me and showed so much remorse and guilt over asking my wife to come. She cries everyday about it. I'll admit, when this first started I was upset at her parents for ignoring the warning signs and not telling her to not risk it. All they had to do was say now is not a safe time to come. But they are such a close-nit family. I told her Mom that it's in the past and I forgive her. Feeling shame and guilt about it only takes away from your strength reserves and you will need it to get past this. Don't torture yourself. I know why you did it. It was for love and if you had truly known this would happen, you would have prevented it.
Kharkov is being destroyed as we speak. Bombs and gunfire are now happening in her village. These truly are the most terrifying days for her and her family. They are praying they live to see another day. Wife and I told each other we will do our best to avoid the news today. We agreed we don't need the news, since she is living the news right now.
I can't imagine how scary it is is for you and your family. I am not downplaying the danger, but try to keep it in the back of your mind that most people will survive. The odds are that they make it through it.
I know that isn't necessarily helpful, but don't lose hope. One day she will be back at home with you and you will be able to tell jokes about how she will do anything to get out of a dentist appointment!
(I hope the joke isn't offensive)
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Warning...pure speculation now...Another article someone posted here mentioned he may be on steroids for back pain. You can see his face is more round, which can be a sign of prednisone or other steroids. For some, it can have a pretty heavy mental affect. I had to take it, and man, I was not myself at all. Quick to snap, made poor decisions, and generally was unpleasant to be around. It's possible some of his decisions and change in demeanor are related to this.
Plus, when I had to take it, I could not sleep, would be up 72 hours at a time and even then, could only sleep an hour or two...horrible medication.
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This is the original link of where the story was which shows on wayback machine. You can read the full story as written
Wayback machine is an internet archive that automatically takes imprints of all sites on the internet over time. That the site is linked there means it was active at the time wayback machine crawled on their page.
Wayback machine isn't some obscure western propaganda tool that would fake russian site stories to show that Russia had preplanned the invasion and had already written victory stories to be released 2 days after the invasion.
At some point, it must come to light that Russian propaganda really is what it is.
It also shows that Putin truly vastly underestimated Ukraine's resistance (he genuinely expected an Afghanistan level submission), and vastly overestimated his own forces ability.
Last edited by Firebot; 03-01-2022 at 09:55 AM.
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So what would be a plausible off ramp for Putin that would result in a ceasefire?
There literally is none. He would want a major victory. Either a promise of permanent neutrality by Ukraine with demilitarization. Or a resignation of Ukraine's government with a promise of "elections".
There's a whole lot of towed artillery in that column. Putin is going to up the pressure on the civilian population. With bombardment and in city fighting.
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You might notice from that map that there appears to be Russian forces moving into Moldova as part of this map (specifically Transnistria, where Russian is spoke quite commonly).
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You might notice from that map that there appears to be Russian forces moving into Moldova as part of this map (specifically Transnistria, where Russian is spoke quite commonly).
Pretty sure I remember seeing maps with Russian troops in Transnistria before the attack.
I've been looking through ads to buy a small unit in Siberia in case I need to send my family away from Moscow.
My wife is in Novosibirsk and so relaxed. I mean, she’s been through a lot in her life being born there, but she’s not panicking. She’s not seeing the long lines at banks like has been reported in Moscow and St. Petersburg and was able to withdraw a large chunk of cash two days in a row.
I guess it just hasn’t hit Siberia yet.
Her flight out to Kazakhstan is on the 6th. She could have gotten an earlier flight but refuses to go to Moscow. I guess a few more days in Siberia is safer than any time in Moscow, especially when dragging a two year old along for the ride.
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What's nuts about it? This is pretty much bang on the security reports I have read. I even made a suggestion on thursday that Ukraine could find itself as a rump state around Lviv as a potential offramp, and it looks like the Russians agree. Without western intervention it is hard to imagine a better scenario for Ukraine. As valiant as their efforts have been, they are fighting a much larger foe, and Putin seems to be taking measures to insulate himself from assassination.
So what would be a plausible off ramp for Putin that would result in a ceasefire?
No doubt that Putin is distancing himself from everyone right now, but I think the most plausible route for a ceasefire is a coup if Ukraine can hold out long enough. With the oligarchs losing more wealth everyday, I believe it is only a matter of time that they put a price on his removal and someone takes them up on it.
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