Russia invades Ukraine

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigatio...s-sa-rcna18026

I’m getting Downfall vibes from that. If that meme wasn’t totally overdone this would be a good use for it

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigatio...s-sa-rcna18026

Two key points:

1. Putin has been becoming increasingly insulated and misinformed
2. Putin does not act like his usual self. Yet no signs of being mentally unstable

Could it mean that:

It's not Putin, but rather some part of his inner circle, that is behind this war? US Intel almost point blank says that Putin was misled into this catastrophic mistake and now appears to be mad about it. I by no mean try to justify Putin, who bears full responsibility and should be trialed. However, this Intel somewhat alter the conventional narrative that it's Putin's plan and his inner circle is horrified of it.

Another possible option. USA is beginning to spread a "Putin committed crimes, but he was horribly misled" as a kind of an off-ramp for Putin to get out if this mess.

[stang]

Ahh this lady is a nazi
https://youtu.be/dCjai-Zaq4Y

That 6 year old girl must be a nazi as well.

#### those guys

[Ozy_Flame]

I'm more of the believer that Putin wanted ideological goals in Ukraine, and his advisors are simply "yes men" for fear of reprisal by him or others who would silence the 'dissenter.'

Personally I think this was a bad idea that snowballed based on what happened in Grozny and Georgia and everyone was too scared to say Ukraine is a different beast.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Watching what is going on in Ukraine should really make it abundantly clear that everyone should have a plan for themselves and their loved ones to GTFO when things look like they're about to go sideways. The tough part is developing the resources but having a small amount of cash and a bugout bag can be a lifesaver.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Watching what is going on in Ukraine should really make it abundantly clear that everyone should have a plan for themselves and their loved ones to GTFO when things look like they're about to go sideways. The tough part is developing the resources but having a small amount of cash and a bugout bag can be a lifesaver.

I've been looking through ads to buy a small unit in Siberia in case I need to send my family away from Moscow.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Two key points:

1. Putin has been becoming increasingly insulated and misinformed
2. Putin does not act like his usual self. Yet no signs of being mentally unstable

Could it mean that:

It's not Putin, but rather some part of his inner circle, that is behind this war? US Intel almost point blank says that Putin was misled into this catastrophic mistake and now appears to be mad about it. I by no mean try to justify Putin, who bears full responsibility and should be trialed. However, this Intel somewhat alter the conventional narrative that it's Putin's plan and his inner circle is horrified of it.

Another possible option. USA is beginning to spread a "Putin committed crimes, but he was horribly misled" as a kind of an off-ramp for Putin to get out if this mess.

Warning...pure speculation now...Another article someone posted here mentioned he may be on steroids for back pain. You can see his face is more round, which can be a sign of prednisone or other steroids. For some, it can have a pretty heavy mental affect. I had to take it, and man, I was not myself at all. Quick to snap, made poor decisions, and generally was unpleasant to be around. It's possible some of his decisions and change in demeanor are related to this.

[Matata]

Putin is a prime target for manipulation, easy to agitate and easy to predict.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Two key points:

1. Putin has been becoming increasingly insulated and misinformed
2. Putin does not act like his usual self. Yet no signs of being mentally unstable

Could it mean that:

It's not Putin, but rather some part of his inner circle, that is behind this war? US Intel almost point blank says that Putin was misled into this catastrophic mistake and now appears to be mad about it. I by no mean try to justify Putin, who bears full responsibility and should be trialed. However, this Intel somewhat alter the conventional narrative that it's Putin's plan and his inner circle is horrified of it.

I wouldn't say so.

Leaders being misinformed is a problem dating back to at least to Stalins era in Russia, but they are also 100% responsible for it.

The misinformation is due to a tradition of punishing the messenger. If you get punished for telling there's a problem, or saying that something the leader wants is impossible or a bad idea, then you stop saying that and let the leader believe everything is fine. When you spread this attitude over a whole society, the country becomes impossible to lead effectively, as the difference between what people at the top think is the reality and the actual reality keeps growing.

After the Soviet Union ended and Finns provided them help intended to help build a modern democracy, Russian statisticians were often blown away by the idea that the statistics should not be affected by political desires.

Most likely this attack is Putin's plan, but no one can tell him the real reasons why the attack is failing and why Putin overestimated the capability of his forces, because that would mean people around him would have to start admitting they've been lying about a lot of things. (And been rewarded by Putin for those lies.)

[Trojan97]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498310065773809665

Interesting string of tweets here with a direct link to an archived copy of the article that was prematurely released (and subsequently removed) by Russian state owned news agency RIA Novosti highlighting reasons for why the invasion occurred.

The article translates fairly easily to english for those interested.

[FlameOn]

MOD update for the night. Russia's Southern MD and airborne grouping continues north and now have control up to Dneiper river south of Nikopol. Western and Center MD Grouping advances have stalled out due to heavy Ukrainian resistance w/ the western grouping's now employing heavy artillery against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv including hits to civilian areas. Russia still cannot gain air superiority.

On top of heavy resistance from Ukrainian military in populated areas, Russian forces entering cities have been reportedly meeting large Ukrainian civilian protests and appear to be using stun grenades to disperse protesting crowds along with their heavy artillery shelling.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498666642284425223

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498551511445553158

Area of control map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

[Vinny01]

I had not watched the Agents of Chaos HBO documentary but started it last night. For those who hadn’t heard of it is on Crave and discusses how Russian hackers and trolls helped in getting Trump elected and also how they stoked the flames of the left vs right battle that has heated up in North America over the past 10 years.

They go into detail on how this trolling operation started with Ukraine back in 2013 when they were on the verge of joining the EU. Putin paid off the President at the time and how he (Ukraine President) fled to Russia as protests broke out in Ukraine.

The Nazi propaganda has been put out there for a near decade and showed me how long this invasion has been in the works. With how easy they took Crimea and with many successful troll campaigns in the past I think Putin thought he would waltz into Ukraine and take it with ease while the west fought amongst themselves.

Putin has underestimated the fighting spirit of the Ukraine as well as how united NATO has become due to the increasing threat of Russian expansion West. I am truly concerned about the endgame here because I do not believe it has a chance to end the way Putin wants and with his back against the wall that I am scared of what he will do

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I hope we come to the realization that Twitter, TikTok, and viral memes aren’t reliable sources of information about this conflict.

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

None of those are sources. They’re platforms.

A reputable journalist on tv, in print or on twitter has the same accuracy.

I still never trust radio or TV.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498310065773809665

Interesting string of tweets here with a direct link to an archived copy of the article that was prematurely released (and subsequently removed) by Russian state owned news agency RIA Novosti highlighting reasons for why the invasion occurred.

The article translates fairly easily to english for those interested.

Very interesting. If legit, they expected to just roll over the Ukraine. In reality, this war is dragging and the Russians look not so competent. Against a more well equipped force, like France or Germany, it seems like the Russians would get creamed.

[Strange Brew]

So what would be a plausible off ramp for Putin that would result in a ceasefire?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Putin has underestimated the fighting spirit of the Ukraine as well as how united NATO has become due to the increasing threat of Russian expansion West. I am truly concerned about the endgame here because I do not believe it has a chance to end the way Putin wants and with his back against the wall that I am scared of what he will do

There is an increasing chance they will take the territory they wanted (although not as quickly as they like), get into the main cities (already happening), and then have to deal with an insurgency that continually adds to the body pile of dead Russian soldiers. But Putin's forces being physically in Kyiv will be the "victory" he sees, even if he's standing on a house of cards. Installation of a puppet regime - even if Zelensky's forces still fight - will be the moral victory he seeks, even if it's a pyrrhic victory.

I don't think there will ever be a ceasefire. Putin's demands are too egregious and Ukrainians won't accept a foreign occupation. Someone is going to fight and die as long as the Russians are there.

[burn_this_city]

They are bombing the TV tower in Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498685345197703175

[EldrickOnIce]

Monthly test of emergency early warning system sounding at 10am here this morning.

This made me incredibly sad

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So what would be a plausible off ramp for Putin that would result in a ceasefire?

1. Ukraine joins EU. Today Putin's spokesman confirmed that Russia has no problem with Ukraine joining EU.

2. NATO denies Ukraine entry. Some USA-Ukraine defensive pact still possible

3. Ukraine gets Donbass back

4. Russia keeps Crimea as the West officially rules 1954 USSR decree that transfer Crimea from Russia to Ukraine void. This allows west to recognize Crimea as Russian without accepting annexation.

5. Russia pay huge sum to Ukraine in return for gradually removing sanctions.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498310065773809665

Interesting string of tweets here with a direct link to an archived copy of the article that was prematurely released (and subsequently removed) by Russian state owned news agency RIA Novosti highlighting reasons for why the invasion occurred.

The article translates fairly easily to english for those interested.

Carefully crafted piece of writing there.

They are certainly well seasoned in the brainwashing business.

No way Putin backs down if this is their line of thinking.