Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[indes]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

So either right back where we were with a Liberal/NDP government or a liberal majority.

Was hoping for a liberal minority with conservatives holding enough seats they might actually work together to make the right policies and bring both parties more to the centre.

My fear is The worst thing happened and it’s going to be 4 years of leftist policy and just bitching and complaining from conservatives.

Maybe SW Ontario voting conservative will be enough to bring them to the centre more but probably not

Leftist policies like reducing taxes, increasing defense spending or is it prioritizing breaking down interprovincial trade barriers and focusing on getting our resources to new markets?

Or is it cutting GST on new home builds, increasing RCMP presence or investing in mineral harvesting?

JK I'm assuming its the real leftist policies like covering apprenticeship costs to increase participation in the trades or investing in a prefabricated home sector to help with the housing crisis.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by indes

Liberals are like the Dems and completely losing the social media battle. They need to up their game next time, I'm afraid the increase in seats means the CPC probably trends further right instead of back to the center. I think a liberal majority would've been better for the country going forward.

There will be a lot of people thinking that this result proves the CPC should move center etc. I would counter that, they got over 41% of the popular vote. That's more than any party has received since Brian Mulroney's 1988 win. Unless the NDP is essentially wiped out forever, the electoral math for the Tories will still be to keep the right unified, inclusive of that ~5-10% group that would otherwise vote PPC to prevent any cleaving of the right vote. This means you're going to continue to see the same kind of politics from them to keep that flank engaged.

The interesting thing is the Liberals, there's not many votes to the left of them unless the NDP is essentially done. It's important for them long-term to resist governing like Trudeau in a minority and essentially placate the rump that is the remaining NDP. It's more stable for them long term to push the CPC further to the right and reclaim the center and not depend on borrowing the former NDP vote to beat the CPC.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

There will be a lot of people thinking that this result proves the CPC should move center etc. I would counter that, they got over 41% of the popular vote. That's more than any party has received since Brian Mulroney's 1988 win. Unless the NDP is essentially wiped out forever, the electoral math for the Tories will still be to keep the right unified, inclusive of that ~5-10% group that would otherwise vote PPC to prevent any cleaving of the right vote. This means you're going to continue to see the same kind of politics from them to keep that flank engaged.

The interesting thing is the Liberals, there's not many votes to the left of them unless the NDP is essentially done. It's important for them long-term to resist governing like Trudeau in a minority and essentially placate the rump that is the remaining NDP. It's more stable for them long term to push the CPC further to the right and reclaim the center and not depend on borrowing the former NDP vote to beat the CPC.

I'm not sure you can ignore the fact that this is also a forth consecutive Liberal term and that's going to work strongly in the favour of Conservatives.



I also just found this graph which I really like. Makes it clear when the NDP is weak, the Liberals do well. When the Liberals are weak the NDP does well.

Spoiler!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...m_1867_to_2021

[indes]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

There will be a lot of people thinking that this result proves the CPC should move center etc. I would counter that, they got over 41% of the popular vote. That's more than any party has received since Brian Mulroney's 1988 win. Unless the NDP is essentially wiped out forever, the electoral math for the Tories will still be to keep the right unified, inclusive of that ~5-10% group that would otherwise vote PPC to prevent any cleaving of the right vote. This means you're going to continue to see the same kind of politics from them to keep that flank engaged.

The interesting thing is the Liberals, there's not many votes to the left of them unless the NDP is essentially done. It's important for them long-term to resist governing like Trudeau in a minority and essentially placate the rump that is the remaining NDP. It's more stable for them long term to push the CPC further to the right and reclaim the center and not depend on borrowing the NDP vote to beat the CPC.

I would agree with you. On the plus side I think this has shown the Libs they should be in the center. I have really high hopes for this Liberal government and agree with almost all of their very centrist platform - all the people pining for a fiscally responsible/socially progressive government should be ecstatic with where the Liberals say they are going.

Actions speak louder than words though, if Carney can execute his vision I honestly believe he'll end up with a lot of support from yesterday's CPC voters. Fingers crossed he can actually deliver on his promises.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

There will be a lot of people thinking that this result proves the CPC should move center etc. I would counter that, they got over 41% of the popular vote. That's more than any party has received since Brian Mulroney's 1988 win. Unless the NDP is essentially wiped out forever, the electoral math for the Tories will still be to keep the right unified, inclusive of that ~5-10% group that would otherwise vote PPC to prevent any cleaving of the right vote. This means you're going to continue to see the same kind of politics from them to keep that flank engaged.

The interesting thing is the Liberals, there's not many votes to the left of them unless the NDP is essentially done. It's important for them long-term to resist governing like Trudeau in a minority and essentially placate the rump that is the remaining NDP. It's more stable for them long term to push the CPC further to the right and reclaim the center and not depend on borrowing the former NDP vote to beat the CPC.

41% is less than the Liberals got this time around. And there’s more extra votes to the left of the Liberals with NDP and Green, and arguably Bloq, than right of the Cons, with the PPP getting destroyed.

Pushing the CPC to the right is not “reclaiming the centre”. The Liberals are firmly the centre. Arguably centre right.

[MacDaddy77]

Originally Posted by indes

Leftist policies like reducing taxes, increasing defense spending or is it prioritizing breaking down interprovincial trade barriers and focusing on getting our resources to new markets?

Or is it cutting GST on new home builds, increasing RCMP presence or investing in mineral harvesting?

JK I'm assuming its the real leftist policies like covering apprenticeship costs to increase participation in the trades or investing in a prefabricated home sector to help with the housing crisis.

Don't be an A$$hole there are 2 side to each party and you can't say with any honesty extreme left socialist views aren't a part of the Liberal agenda especially if they end up having to align with NDP.

I have hope that Carney can bring the liberal party more to the center but there is a large left extremist view in the LPC, this can not be denied. The same as there is a large extremist Right in the CPC.

Finding the middle to govern for all is what I hope Carney can and will do.

Where is the money coming from for the programs you mentioned? Most likely by an increasing debt which will result in more unaffordable living and higher costs. $8000 grant gets someone through school, where do they live after with the cost of living so high?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I'm not sure you can ignore the fact that this is also a forth consecutive Liberal term and that's going to work strongly in the favour of Conservatives.



I also just found this graph which I really like. Makes it clear when the NDP is weak, the Liberals do well. When the Liberals are weak the NDP does well.

Spoiler!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...m_1867_to_2021

Agree with this. If the NDP are going to make a comeback the CPC should simply run it back and they likely will win a majority in the next election. Due to the impact of Trump this is likely to be a very rough 4 years economically in Canada regardless of who is in power. Carney could do objectively a great job steering the country through rough waters but in any case 2028/2029 Canada has a high probability of feeling worse than 2024/25 Canada and for many voters the Liberals rightly or wrongly could wear that.

[Ped]

The Conservatives will likely look at their improvements in votes, vote share, and seats, and conclude that they are almost there and don't really need to change anything, but considering how they pretty much had this in the bag 6 months ago is major embarrassment. Whether they will acknowledge it, is probably too much to hope for.


But I think a lot of people just don't realize how far right many of these candidates are. COVID exposed a lot of them, but there's a reason that the party resists moving center, and it's not entirely due to the threat of losing the votes to the PPC. A lot of the, belleve that far-right crap. Harper succeeded in putting a muzzle on a lot of them, but Trump's victories have emboldened a lot of people to admit who or what they are.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

There will be a lot of people thinking that this result proves the CPC should move center etc. I would counter that, they got over 41% of the popular vote. That's more than any party has received since Brian Mulroney's 1988 win. Unless the NDP is essentially wiped out forever, the electoral math for the Tories will still be to keep the right unified, inclusive of that ~5-10% group that would otherwise vote PPC to prevent any cleaving of the right vote. This means you're going to continue to see the same kind of politics from them to keep that flank engaged.

I unfortunately agree with this. A lot of the conservatives I talk to are so far down the fake news, anti left wing media, conspiracy theory rabbit hole that I don't know if there's ever a way back towards moderate for them.
They exist only in cult mind now.

There are others who can articulate why they voted Conservative and actually exist in reality, but I wonder if the first group is too prevalent to ever go back.
Much like they voted Trump in a 2nd time, there is no lessons learned for them. They live in an alternate reality.

[PepsiFree]

Sorry let me just bask in the abridged version of my deadly accurate prediction and the very astute responses.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

As much as people here ranting and raving about the country being “held hostage” (lol) would absolutely lose their mind over it, it’s a strategy with a decent chance of success and the possibility of which PP is absolutely losing sleep over.

For the disaster they’re making the Liberals out to be, the Conservative polling numbers are actually worse than you’d expect. With the right winds shifting around before the election, they could drop right back down.

Of course Trudeau is the biggest obstacle there, but it’s a big reason why Conservatives and their supporters are obsessed with calling an election rather than anything to do with resigning.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think it’s be pretty hard to swing it back into the majority territory on the other side, but downgrading the Cons to a minority or even forcing more of the same is definitely in the realm of possibility.

Originally Posted by curves2000

I really don't know where on earth you get some of these things, it's over for Trudeau and the Liberals for the time being. You literally have every single opposition party saying it's over, political analysts and experts saying it's over, you have large volumes of Liberal team members publicly saying it's over, you have a lot of Liberals privately saying it's over, you have Canadian's across the board saying it's over, you have Trudeau's wife saying it's over.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Saying stuff like the Liberals aren’t well funded, or that it’s “selfish” for the elected party to rule until the next election, or that the Bloc wants to be the official opposition, is absurd. Yes, I get all the conservative fantasies these moments of turmoil inspire, but these fantasies don’t mean anything. You have to understand how long a year is in politics and public sentiment.

The country will have a say in new leadership… at the election. Last time they elected the Liberals, who are the leaders now. They want a majority, a minority, or at least opposition against a Conservative minority. Right now, they’re looking at opposition against a Conservative majority. So, how do they achieve something more preferential? Their best path forward is booting Trudeau and shaking up the party with a new leader and shuffling the cabinet. Say someone like Carney, sure. What does that do? It guarantees nothing, but probably puts option three back on the table if not option two (would require a huge change, but possible).

What does the NDP get out of letting this play out? Well for them, like the Bloc, official opposition is off the table. So their choices are letting the government fall and giving up all influence for 4+ years, or propping up the government, continuing influence for a year, and hoping that continues beyond that.

Originally Posted by Firebot

L O L

I don't know what's more fun, watching the complete total collapse of the Liberal party before our eyes in a matter of hours as they backstab each other live for all of us to see with a rogue leader refusing to step down, or PepsiFree and the usual crew in complete mental meltdown mode and on full damage control in vain attempts to control the narrative.

Originally Posted by Goriders

The liberals have zero chance of winning the next election. No matter what they do.

Originally Posted by Goriders

You’re as delusional as trudeau if you believe that.

The liberals are headed for a 1993 mulroney loss.

Trudeau is too much of a narcissist to step aside. He’s going down with the ship and taking the country with him. It’s not him. Everyone else is wrong.

Everybody clap.

[indes]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Don't be an A$$hole there are 2 side to each party and you can't say with any honesty extreme left socialist views aren't a part of the Liberal agenda especially if they end up having to align with NDP.

I have hope that Carney can bring the liberal party more to the center but there is a large left extremist view in the LPC, this can not be denied. The same as there is a large extremist Right in the CPC.

Finding the middle to govern for all is what I hope Carney can and will do.

Where is the money coming from for the programs you mentioned? Most likely by an increasing debt which will result in more unaffordable living and higher costs. $8000 grant gets someone through school, where do they live after with the cost of living so high?

I haven't seen anything in Carney's platform that would be considered extreme left socialist views. That being said I'm not trying to be an ####### and I would love to take a look at any articles/publications that have them going that route.

Edit: Just to respond to the rest of your post, the CPC had most of that stuff in their platform as well and were also planning on running a deficit. The CPC did say they would reduce the deficit with "future revenues" that weren't based on anything.

[PepsiFree]

OK one more because my farts smell great this morning.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s always funny to me when conservatives have such low self-confidence and lack of conviction that they look for every opportunity to blame everyone else for their own actions.

“Well, if you had just voted for O’Toole we wouldn’t have had to kick him out and then vote in PP!”

Or, you know, the Conservatives could have just kept O’Toole and let him continue to build trust with Canadians instead of kicking him out. Or chosen someone who wasn’t PP.

But darn, if only everyone else didn’t make them do it. Has anyone seen their spine?

Originally Posted by Jason14h

They chose the candidate who is going to win in a landslide.

I think the political party accomplished their goal of winning the next election just fine.

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Why would the party keep someone instead of replacing them with someone who is about to win in one of the largest landslides in Canadian history.

Can you imagine if the CPC ran someone who people actually liked! They may get every seat as opposed to only 65%!

[MacDaddy77]

Platform is just to get elected, I don't have enough time to list the things JT said he would implement that got swept under the rug once in power.

elections over, time for the Rubber to hit the road. I'd love to see this country pull together, having the threat of trump will help with this I hope.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Don't be an A$$hole there are 2 side to each party and you can't say with any honesty extreme left socialist views aren't a part of the Liberal agenda especially if they end up having to align with NDP.

I have hope that Carney can bring the liberal party more to the center but there is a large left extremist view in the LPC, this can not be denied. The same as there is a large extremist Right in the CPC.

Finding the middle to govern for all is what I hope Carney can and will do.

Where is the money coming from for the programs you mentioned? Most likely by an increasing debt which will result in more unaffordable living and higher costs. $8000 grant gets someone through school, where do they live after with the cost of living so high?

Money comes through debt and taxes BUT...
Carney may be able to stimulate the economy enough that it grows and there's more meat on the bone to work with.

The idea is just cutting everything and providing nothing to people isn't a great option.
Taxing like crazy and not boosting the economy isn't either.

Carney is positioning himself as someone who can provide BOTH a strong economy and valuable services; so let's hope he can. Shouldn't that be what Canadians want?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Sorry let me just bask in the abridged version of my deadly accurate prediction and the very astute responses.

Everybody clap.

Yes, we all had those moments...

Originally Posted by Goriders

Guess if you put any faith in the polls there are a lot of idiots in canada. Because the seat totals are going to be in the 245 range for PP and 6 for the Liberals.

Thank god for idiots.

which led to....

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Just so you're brain doesn't short circuit when election results come out, you do realize polls are a snapshot of voter sentiment at a point in time, right? And that these sentiments can quickly change as situations change, because not every voter who may have answered yes to PP in December 2024 is going to vote that way? I understand it's a tough concept for single party simpleton voters to grasp, but in short, things change. Not everyone is a locked in idiot, so your thanking of God for that is very premature.

And thanks to Firebot for caping that conversation off.

Originally Posted by Firebot

Geez someone pissed in your cheerios this morning? Did that post deserve such a trashy reply?

You are totally right.It will likely get far worse for the Liberal / NDP based on current trajectories.

What are your expectations here exactly? That Canadians will read hundreds of CP posts from yourself and the likes about Poilievre being bad and 'not serious', and suddenly get an epiphany and forget everything that occured under the governing party? I want to hear your train of thought on what you think will change in Canadian mindsets and why you think they would change on a dime today. Have your own thoughts changed in the past month?

Frankly, sounds like you are just unhappy Canadians are largely not siding with your political views and voting intent right now.

Ya... things happened.

Anyone do a wellness check on Goriders?

[indes]

Originally Posted by MacDaddy77

Platform is just to get elected, I don't have enough time to list the things JT said he would implement that got swept under the rug once in power.

elections over, time for the Rubber to hit the road. I'd love to see this country pull together, having the threat of trump will help with this I hope.

Couldn't agree more and hopefully everyone can adopt this attitude, this is the government we've got and fingers crossed they can get some #### done.

[Looch City]

All Conservatives have to do is shut out the far right and they'll have a majority government for like the next 5 decades.

That's all they have to do.

Now are they actually brave enough to do it?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Looch City

All Conservatives have to do is shut out the far right and they'll have a majority government for like the next 5 decades.

That's all they have to do.

Now are they actually brave enough to do it?

Clearly not, all they have done is fan the flames of the far right.

CPC needs to be blown up.

[undercoverbrother]

Shouts of Stolen Election in 3----2------

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Shouts of Stolen Election in 3----2------

I think that was one of the good thing that came out from PP. He did not dismiss the results and championed democracy.