Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Point of order, there are no "PC"s anymore. The CPC is not the PC party, it is mostly a continuation of the alliance. Certainly their current policy slate is a pretty wide departure from typical PC policy of the past. Also, the people involved are all alliance people and not old PC people.

PC is an old term and does not accurately describe, in any way, the Canadian Conservative Party of Pierre Poilievre.

I would love to have the PCs back. The liberals needed their foil for just these occasions. The CPC does not fill that void. A viable centre right alternative.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

I guess you made your choice…..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1439772089771335681

Now you have to dill with it.

Who won? Blackface Mr. Dressup was terrible. Whats your point?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ahahaa. Some good stuff from the memory banks.

Interestingly, there's a new Leger poll showing the race being tied if Carney was the Liberal leader:

CPC: 37%
LPC: 37%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 6%
GPC: 5%
PPC: 2%

CPC still having a strong showing percentage wise, but it looks like with Carney, the Liberals seem to be able to pull some moderate support from the CPC while decimating the NDP. But because of voting efficiency, the above result would likely be a Liberal majority. As always, you can only glean so much from polls, but this at least is a top-rated pollster, rather than a firm like EKOS.

[Fuzz]

Do you know how I voted in that election? Reality is, it doesn't matter because Alberta voters are rubber stampers.

[Monahammer]

Poilievre is in a really challenging position. He now needs to create separation between him and trump to win, and the party beneath him seems absolutely paralyzed on how to do that. I attended a town hall with some CPC MPs last week and it was almost hysterical double speak coming from them- on one hand, trump is absolutely right, we need to spend way more on the border and this horrific fentanyl crisis, on the other, he's absolutely insane and these tariffs have no basis in reality or justification.

He has to differentiate from Trump but the base he's courted are part of the cult. He doesn't seem to have any idea about how to serve both (I am not sure it is possible.) IMO he's already gone too far right to capture those people to make a credible dart back to center pre election.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Interestingly, there's a new Leger poll showing the race being tied if Carney was the Liberal leader:

CPC: 37%
LPC: 37%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 6%
GPC: 5%
PPC: 2%

CPC still having a strong showing percentage wise, but it looks like with Carney, the Liberals seem to be able to pull some moderate support from the CPC while decimating the NDP. But because of voting efficiency, the above result would likely be a Liberal majority. As always, you can only glean so much from polls, but this at least is a top-rated pollster, rather than a firm like EKOS.

Oh if Quebec is anything like the polls say with Carney it will be a Liberal majority.

remember when the con supporters were trotting out numbers like 98% change of Con Majority and 280 seats minimum? .... Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Interestingly, there's a new Leger poll showing the race being tied if Carney was the Liberal leader:

CPC: 37%
LPC: 37%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 6%
GPC: 5%
PPC: 2%

CPC still having a strong showing percentage wise, but it looks like with Carney, the Liberals seem to be able to pull some moderate support from the CPC while decimating the NDP. But because of voting efficiency, the above result would likely be a Liberal majority. As always, you can only glean so much from polls, but this at least is a top-rated pollster, rather than a firm like EKOS.

As a pretty staunch NDP voter I would vote Carney right now, no questions.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do you know how I voted in that election? Reality is, it doesn't matter because Alberta voters are rubber stampers.

You don’t remember? Or maybe you just remember it differently.

[Monahammer]

To be reasonable, the polling pre trump and even post trump pre trudeau walk in the snow was apocalyptic. This is a major inverse of fortunes on a ridiculous time scale.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

You don’t remember? Or maybe you just remember it differently.

You don't get the right to ask anyone on here who they voted for since you can't answer a single damn question about PP.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

To be reasonable, the polling pre trump and even post trump pre trudeau walk in the snow was apocalyptic. This is a major inverse of fortunes on a ridiculous time scale.

But come on. Even if Trudeau didn't step down the Cons were hard press even to win a minority with Pierre Pomeranian in charge. The dude is just a scumbag.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

To be reasonable, the polling pre trump and even post trump pre trudeau walk in the snow was apocalyptic. This is a major inverse of fortunes on a ridiculous time scale.

I think it really shows that the CPC vote was based entirely on being not Trudeau. Now that there seems to be a viable alternative, voters are flocking to it instead of holding their nose and voting Anyone but JT.

It also seems to point that the messaging has working in that JT has taken all of the blame, the downside is that the LPC is not taking that hit.

[Torture]

The one thing polling always showed is that while the Conservatives were running away with vote intention, people just frankly do not like Polievre. They liked him more than they disliked Trudeau, but they didn't like him and didn't trust him. Combined with Trump changing the ballot question, I am not entirely surprised to see a shift in vote intentions.

Still need to bring it home (hah!) but it looks like the Liberals have a chance under Carney.

[Monahammer]

If Trudeau had never stepped down, the CPC would still have a commanding lead. We'd probably have a bloc opposition and the NDP may have been spared.

Now, it looks like the NDP will be almost eradicated as voters flock to a reasonable alternative (as torture and belsarius have pointed out.)

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

If Trudeau had never stepped down, the CPC would still have a commanding lead. We'd probably have a bloc opposition and the NDP may have been spared.

Now, it looks like the NDP will be almost eradicated as voters flock to a reasonable alternative (as torture and belsarius have pointed out.)

But that would have been before the Lib attack ads linking PP to Danielle Smith and Trump. As soon as those are released it would have turned the poll numbers around.

[Gordon Bombay]

"Here in Canada we understand the laws of economics."

"We are in an economic crisis, not of our own making. We are under attack by the United States."

Just a couple gem quotes I just watched Carbon Tax Carney make in interview. This guy might be dumber and worse than Trudeau. Our country is a freaking circus.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Gordon Bombay

"Here in Canada we understand the laws of economics."

"We are in an economic crisis, not of our own making. We are under attack by the United States."

Just a couple gem quotes I just watched Carbon Tax Carney make in interview. This guy might be dumber and worse than Trudeau. Our country is a freaking circus.

hyahahahah what a whiner post and sooo bitter!!

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Interestingly, there's a new Leger poll showing the race being tied if Carney was the Liberal leader:

CPC: 37%
LPC: 37%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 6%
GPC: 5%
PPC: 2%

CPC still having a strong showing percentage wise, but it looks like with Carney, the Liberals seem to be able to pull some moderate support from the CPC while decimating the NDP. But because of voting efficiency, the above result would likely be a Liberal majority. As always, you can only glean so much from polls, but this at least is a top-rated pollster, rather than a firm like EKOS.

Poilievre made his bed by favouring the social right message and not heavily denouncing MAGA and the US the instant it became apparent their annexation motive and attack on Canada, while also not denouncing Smith who is running her fiefdom. With Carney at least on the surface campaigning to the radical center, and Poilievre still stuck on the Just Like Trudeau campaign, it's a total disaster for the CPC. He's not shifting fast enough. Canadians really don't care about the carbon tax right now when their identity as a Canadian is directly under threat.

I think Poilievre easily survives a 2016 Trump, not this version.

There's of course a lot of recency bias with everything positive in terms of Liberals in the limelight. Harris had a substantial honeymoon phase for a few months where it seemed all but assured Democrats would win. This was until it was realized it was the same old Democrats.

In the end, most Canadians are indeed angry at the Liberals and NDP, but they are now united in hating Americans while we see pictures of Danielle Smith with O'Leary and Trump and see Carney as the most competent option to protect Canadian interests.

[Gordon Bombay]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

hyahahahah what a whiner post and sooo bitter!!

Lol really? I assume you've added to the million plus whining posts about PP and Trump. Just a guess.

[BigThief]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

I guess you made your choice…..

https://twitter.com/user/status/1439772089771335681

Now you have to dill with it.

You posted a four year old tweet that didn't address anything you replied to. Good job?