American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Have you not faced adversity in your life before? I can't believe people would be seriously consider packing it in and bailing out of their country because of Trump's hot air bargaining.

I think people who have faced adversity are the exact ones who are aware of how fast their world can change, how bad things can - and do - happen, and how nobody and no institution will look out for you, so you need to look after yourself proactively and before you're in a situation where it's too late to do anything.

Taking some preliminary steps now to keep future doors open is the literal exact opposite of panicking. It'd be time to panic if you didn't prepare for some crazy outcomes (no matter how unlikely in your opinion). People panic when cornered and out of options. Nobody here is panicking. Sounds like they're being rational and prudent.

[PsYcNeT]

I for one will be buying as many prepper buckets as possible. Sadly most are Made In The USA

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It's not hot air bargaining. How many people have to tell you this before you believe it?

He's serious. Whether enough people will go along with him or not is what is in question.

Personally, my kids and wife have swiss citizenship and we launched the process to secure their swiss passports in december.

Everything he says is an angle on something and he says the most inflammatory thing to get an emotional reaction to throw his counterparty off balance. His ramblings on Canada were among a lot of ramblings on a lot of other things too.

IE He also talked about 'redeveloping gaza' in that same presser on AF1. Is the US actually going to 'redevelop' Gaza? Or is he really trying to invoke the image of the US parachuting into Gaza to try an leverage neighboring countries into taking refugees?

On Canada, it's clearly two asks:

1. That Canada pay the cost of it's national defense, when Trump uses the $200Billion+ figure on the Trade deficit and many folks point out it's 'actually only $60Billion', the difference is he's including a made up number for the cost of continental defense or some approximation of what it 'should' contribute to NATO (he throw around 5% of GDP at some point in the past few weeks when speaking of NATO allies generally, Canada has long committed to 2% and is actually at 1.4%)

2. Clearly he has ambitions to aggressively renegotiate NAFTA/USMCA on a number of areas and these would likely be % of North American sourced components in Cars to be designated "North American", access to Canadian & Mexican markets that are asymmetrically 'tariffed' or 'restricted' on the agreement - such as Supply Management, banking, foreign ownership restrictions on telecom, airlines, etc.

As for what Canada should do:

Contributing to 2% of GDP per NATO commitment ASAP (IE not 2030 et al) should be a no brainer for Canada. Building ships for the arctic, etc. will be a way to keep steel plants and other industries caught up in the trade war running while also bolstering the Canadian forces at a time when the US is musing that it wouldn't necessarily defend Canada is a sound idea as well. Going up to an inflated number pulled out of Trump's behind would be where they would want to negotiate against.

The rest is difficult, as a country dealing with a hostile trading partner it wouldn't want to sign an agreement that would essentially allow it's critical industries to be hollowed out by larger American rivals. Yes Supply Management is inefficient, yes Canadians pay more for less, but essentially allowing Wisconsin to take out the Canadian dairy industry would not be very strategic in a world where the US views Canada as a transactional counterparty rather than friendly neighbor with shared values. The best play here is probably to do some strategic things like axe interprovincial barriers, set up P3's to fund an oil pipeline west to east to remove Eastern Canada's dependance on Line 5 and give greater export capacity to the sector and potentially build LNG plants to generate more from exports to offset the resulting higher tariffs that are sure to come when Canada doesn't sacrifice it's protected industries.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I for one will be buying as many prepper buckets as possible. Sadly most are Made In The USA

If you want Canadian you'll need to track down a Beaver Bucket or a Bison Bag.

[WideReceiver]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Canada as a single state would have as many electoral college votes as California, and essentially render the swing state races irrelevant.

You'd have republican candidates working and pining for Canada's favor for the foreseeable future as the it would all but certainly ensure democratic victories for as long as the nation willed it.

Trump should've specified territory instead of state, because as a state of the US it would #### his party indefinitely.

Like with many things in this world, gaining geopolitical dominion over all of our abundant and glorious resources comes with a cost.

And that's why you kindly #### off, be a nice neighbour and respect the trade partnership that's been established and which many US citizens and businesses benefit from.

He’d make Canada a territory like Puerto Rica so we can’t vote.

[BigThief]

Yeah, that's exactly it. They aren't playing by the rules now what makes any of you think they'd enact this without still securing their future.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

He’d make Canada a territory like Puerto Rica so we can’t vote.

I'll gladly join the US if they gave us 40 electoral votes.

[Drak]

Why are “Canadian” private citizens like Kevin O’Leary and Jordan Peterson allowed to conduct foreign policy with Trump regarding our sovereignty? Why is Alberta’s premiere allowed to do the same? It’s treasonous.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Sliver

I think people who have faced adversity are the exact ones who are aware of how fast their world can change, how bad things can - and do - happen, and how nobody and no institution will look out for you, so you need to look after yourself proactively and before you're in a situation where it's too late to do anything.

Taking some preliminary steps now to keep future doors open is the literal exact opposite of panicking. It'd be time to panic if you didn't prepare for some crazy outcomes (no matter how unlikely in your opinion). People panic when cornered and out of options. Nobody here is panicking. Sounds like they're being rational and prudent.

Huh, seems exactly like what Albertans (and Saskers) have been saying for the last decade with respect to diversifying their markets for energy, and just getting the middle finger from the rest of the country and being told there's no reason for it.

So you're saying we have been the rational and prudent thinkers in the country over the last decade?

[WideReceiver]

Because none are officially representing our government. Smith is “representing” Alberta, as disgusting as it is. The others are private citizens, who can do whatever they want. None are negotiating anything.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sliver

I think people who have faced adversity are the exact ones who are aware of how fast their world can change, how bad things can - and do - happen, and how nobody and no institution will look out for you, so you need to look after yourself proactively and before you're in a situation where it's too late to do anything.

Taking some preliminary steps now to keep future doors open is the literal exact opposite of panicking. It'd be time to panic if you didn't prepare for some crazy outcomes (no matter how unlikely in your opinion). People panic when cornered and out of options. Nobody here is panicking. Sounds like they're being rational and prudent.

Preliminary steps on what? The sky is falling? This annex stuff is pure nonsense.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

1. That Canada pay the cost of it's national defense, when Trump uses the $200Billion+ figure on the Trade deficit and many folks point out it's 'actually only $60Billion', the difference is he's including a made up number for the cost of continental defense or some approximation of what it 'should' contribute to NATO (he throw around 5% of GDP at some point in the past few weeks when speaking of NATO allies generally, Canada has long committed to 2% and is actually at 1.4%)

When you factor in services, that $60 billion number shrinks even more to about $30 billion.

When you consider that the U.S. is a richer country with 10x the population of Canada, it's surprising that they are only $30 billion in the red. No one should expect a country with 1/10th the population to buy the same amount of stuff, especially energy.

If Trump is factoring in defense costs or other abstract costs, he should demonstrate where he gets those numbers. In theory, we count on the U.S. for defense, but we are also a target for hostile forces mainly because we are aligned with the U.S. and feed them resources. I also can't think of any time in history that the U.S. has defended Canada. The U.S. is the only NATO country to date that has ever invoked NATO Article 5 which Canada answered to. Canadians literally died defending America. It has yet to be shown that they would do the same. I mean, they probably would, but until then it is all talk. With Trump in power, I am not 100% sure they would.

[scotty2hotty]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Preliminary steps on what? The sky is falling? This annex stuff is pure nonsense.

... said Austria in 1937.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Preliminary steps on what? The sky is falling? This annex stuff is pure nonsense.

So I assume you don't have any fire/flood insurance on your house? Why take any steps to mitigate a situation that is so unlikely to happen?

[BigThief]

Maybe it's nonsesne but taking it as such is stupid.

[scotty2hotty]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

So I assume you don't have any fire/flood insurance on your house? Why take any steps to mitigate a situation that is so unlikely to happen?

Exactly. I haven't read one person panicking on this thread.

Having options at hand if Canada gets driven into a deep and prolonged recession just gives me peace of mind.

Hopefully all of these shenanigans just serve to bring Canada closer together and come out stronger. I'm doing what little I can to work towards that outcome myself. If that's all that happens (which is my #1 hope) then I guess I've just 'wasted' $150. No biggie.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

So I assume you don't have any fire/flood insurance on your house? Why take any steps to mitigate a situation that is so unlikely to happen?

I don't think Canada is going to flood. What do you all think is going to happen? Really? Even if it were to happen it's not like we are going to get sent to concentration camps.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

I'll gladly join the US if they gave us 40 electoral votes.

No thanks.

[scotty2hotty]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't think Canada is going to flood. What do you all think is going to happen? Really? Even if it were to happen it's not like we are going to get sent to concentration camps.

I agree.

The outcome that I believe is worth planning for, however, is a long and painful recession where my wife and I cannot afford our mortgage.

Still very unlikely …but why do you care if I have a plan in place for that worst case scenario?

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Slava

No thanks.

we are taking it to save the world! we are going to be heroes! lol

Well you guys are. I'll be in Hong Kong. haha