10-30-2024, 10:44 PM
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#23381
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
Data from 2016 (or dear god 1936) isn't relevant to 2024 because early voting and voting by mail is more popular among Republicans now than it ever used to be.
Pollsters have to call like... 100 people?... to get one person willing to respond. Polls aren't irrelevant, but I'll be keeping a closer eye on the early vote tallies than the polls.
The only garbage I see floatin' around here is the electoral college!
No but seriously it's time that America got rid of that illegitimate system.
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The 1936 stuff was more of a joke from my read.
What you are saying is that there is no data available to support that the early voting split is representative of anything.
Also if you look at the voting split there was no pattern to the miss direction. The Democrats did not perform better in early voting in all scenarios like if your thesis was correct.
I had linked a previous article discussing the concept where they looked at the type of early voting and how it is introduced affecting who it benefits and that who it “benefits” changes from election to election.
If your goal is to be better than an average error of 4% early voting doesn’t appear to be the metric to use.
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10-30-2024, 10:45 PM
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#23382
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Lifetime Suspension
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10-30-2024, 11:18 PM
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#23383
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Our Jessica Fletcher
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts
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What am I missing here
Edit: that’s amazing
Last edited by The Fonz; 10-30-2024 at 11:27 PM.
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10-30-2024, 11:23 PM
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#23384
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
If your goal is to be better than an average error of 4% early voting doesn’t appear to be the metric to use.
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My goal is to get a general sense of who is going to win each state.
The polls have me confused. PA has gone back and forth, and while the polls in 2016 and 2020 heavily underestimated Trump's support, they've made aggressive adjustments to make up for that this time around. Who knows if they've over adjusted, under adjusted, or got it just right? It's honestly impossible to know.
It's also harder than ever to get people to answer the phone and answer the poll questions. So who knows about the accuracy even in the highest quality polls? Even the best pollsters have to phone a gazillion people just to get 1000 or 2000 people willing to pick up and answer.
And like you said, a single margin of error is the difference between a blowout for one side and a blowout for the other.
I'd rather look at actual votes from actual voters as an indicator of what might happen. While it's far from perfect, so are the polls.
PA for example, showing 58% to 32% lead for Democrats with over 1.5 million votes in. Is Trump going to overcome that to win the state? Maybe, but it seems like Harris has the inside track in that state. Just like Trump has it in TX and FL.
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Last edited by Mathgod; 10-30-2024 at 11:33 PM.
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10-31-2024, 12:16 AM
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#23385
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Not a casual user
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: A simple man leading a complicated life....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts
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He was riding in the wrong end of the dump trump. Should have been in back with the rest of the garbage.
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10-31-2024, 12:44 AM
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#23386
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: May 2004
Exp:  
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I think i couple people have gotten this right, definitely in the minority, in just the past few days here. Like polls or betting sites matter.
The poly and other new sites just want your data, which also confirms your bias. With the international money and Putin, NK and others being able to make bets it's useless in the USA.
I think this is like all the red wave talk, it was way more prevalent before though, on the Kansas and right wing sites I watch. The old republicans don't bother posting and it's way more of just tantrums and spam headlines from the russian bots their RT followers and their narratives and disinformation.
I think the women will save this election and by a wide margin, just like the midterms, and the other places that red has turned blue on abortion. In places like Kansas, where they ran against abortion and lost.
The campaign also wants to plant doubt in the election results. If you are on twitter and searching polls then you will get results that will reinforce that.
Either way, only a week left. I think Harris will win and do better in places that Democrats shouldn't.
Getting past the speaker of the house I am not sure, but if it is overwhelming enough, which i think it will be, then hopefully the speaker won't have a choice.
I base most of my opinion on the fact that 170 million votes or something were cast last election, and already over 55 million had been cast a day ago. That with trump's post about Pennsylvania already being rigged, that says early voting has Harris way ahead. As well as the turnout last night for the Harris rally that supposedly, no one was talking about. I picture them knocking on doors, after leaving and organizing.
Last edited by Sultan; 10-31-2024 at 01:46 AM.
Reason: Spelling, a few times
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10-31-2024, 03:12 AM
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#23387
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Thinking that you can use early voter party affiliation to predict the election in this election kind of requires you to make an assumption that none of the storylines or campaign strategies of either campaign are having notable effect on party affiliation.
For example, Harris has made a huge push to get Republican votes, doing events with Liz Cheney etc, and they've been doing that for so long and so consistently that it's very likely the polling data suggest this is worth a shot for them.
Meanwhile, there is a lot of data to suggest that notable amounts of black and latino men, who are quite often registered as Democrats, are moving towards Trump.
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10-31-2024, 04:20 AM
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#23388
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Helsinki, Finland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.
Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.
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I have to point out that someone who basically has "a believer in statistical analysis" as his nickname on this site, it actually somewhat ironic that you have so little faith in election data analysis
If you can see a simple, significant pattern in the way predictions are skewed compared to reality, then any quality pollster has also noticed it and it's now a part of their prediction model. That's just this works. After 2016 it was 50/50 whether the pollsters had overcorrected or undercorrected for the changes in voting behavior that Trump caused.
This year, it's also 50/50 which way the polls are going to be wrong. At this point, it's just as likely that the models are overcorrecting their numbers to look better for Trump than they actually are... but which ever way they are skewed, they are unlikely to be skewed for the same reasons as they were in 2016.
If you want to make a guess which way the polls are wrong, you should be looking at what are things that have significantly changed in electorate behavior. For example, if there's an even bigger wave of people voting against the overturn of Roe v. Wade than in 2022 (I think this is extremely plausible), then Harris will do better than predicted. Likewise, if "Trump shyness" has actually gone away for Harris over the years, that would mean Harris will do better than predicted.
It's also worth remembering that Trump has lost significant ground due to the demographic shift since 2016. His by far most reliable voting block of non-college-educated white men is just a smaller portion of the population than they used to be, and have been "replaced" by the college-educated and non-whites, both of which are much hard for him to reach.
One thing that makes me optimistic that I think an absolute Harris landslide is very much a possibility, but I don't see that being at all realistic for Trump. If Trump wins, it's almost certainly going to be a very thin margin and likely without winning the popular vote.
Trump has gambled massively on multiple risky proposotions, like getting young men to vote for him in significant numbers, and he's especially been targeting young men who just generally don't vote at all. He has also admitted to trying to fill the news with basically fake polls showing good numbers for him. He thinks he doesn't need a ground game to activate his voters which goes against traditional thinking in turnout elections like this, and he has spent massive amounts of resources trying to create uncertainty about the election results in order to steal it, instead of focusing on just winning it. When journalists go look at local pro-Trump election operations, they find that Trumps organization spends half their time on nonsense "poll watching" and bogus lawsuits instead of the actual election work. He has essentially completely destroyed the traditional GOP election organization.
All of the above could very well backfire on him spectacularly come election night. Or not. But I don't see similar massive risks in the Harris campaign.
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10-31-2024, 05:37 AM
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#23389
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
My goal is to get a general sense of who is going to win each state.
The polls have me confused. PA has gone back and forth, and while the polls in 2016 and 2020 heavily underestimated Trump's support, they've made aggressive adjustments to make up for that this time around. Who knows if they've over adjusted, under adjusted, or got it just right? It's honestly impossible to know.
It's also harder than ever to get people to answer the phone and answer the poll questions. So who knows about the accuracy even in the highest quality polls? Even the best pollsters have to phone a gazillion people just to get 1000 or 2000 people willing to pick up and answer.
And like you said, a single margin of error is the difference between a blowout for one side and a blowout for the other.
I'd rather look at actual votes from actual voters as an indicator of what might happen. While it's far from perfect, so are the polls.
PA for example, showing 58% to 32% lead for Democrats with over 1.5 million votes in. Is Trump going to overcome that to win the state? Maybe, but it seems like Harris has the inside track in that state. Just like Trump has it in TX and FL.
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Would you agree that final result in Pennsylvania will be within 3 points?
If so would a 52% - 38% Harris advantage in Pennsylvania early voting make you change your opinion on it. It’s still a very big spread that would lead one to make the same types of conclusions. Or put another way. What early voting advantage does Harris need in Pensylvania for it to suggest to you that she’s winning. I don’t think there is a basis to establish that number.
2020 with Trump suppressing early voting was 64-27-10 vs 57 - 33 - 10
Here’s all the data to play with
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v...-early-voting/
I agree with your assessment of the polling. Ultimately I don’t think you can get a general sense of who will win the 7 swing states with current data.
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10-31-2024, 05:43 AM
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#23390
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDutch
Buckle up. Followers of Trump listened and drank bleach. He has now told them these workers are all traitors working to suppress freedom. No security.
I am so praying I am wrong on what is about to happen. These workers are heros.
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The Trump Media sphere is basically "Trump is a lock to win and if he doesn't it was stolen", these hardcore zanies don't leave that bubble and now believe anyone who isn't with Trump is an enemy
The Trump team strategy to go after the uneducated typical nonvoter in 2016 worked brilliantly. The 2024 idea is target young men who are apolitical as well. His vast amount of podcast appearances over the last few months have been insane
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MMF is the tough as nails cop that "plays by his own rules". The force keeps suspending him when he crosses the line but he keeps coming back and then cracks a big case.
-JiriHrdina
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10-31-2024, 07:11 AM
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#23391
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: wearing raccoons for boots
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Well you gotta hand it to these folks
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...Adult-Websites
"We're targeting guys who don't find the last 12 years of anti-Trump messaging from Democrats particularly persuasive," said Wally Nowinski, co-founder of FTW PAC. "If anything, they like that he is problematic or brash. But they don't know what J.D. Vance and Trump's allies on Project 2025 are cooking up, and they might not be on board with that."
The campaign leverages high-traffic adult websites to deliver targeted messages to this crucial demographic through 10-second ads that run before adult videos. These ads feature an image of Donald Trump with the caption "Trump's Project 2025 Will Ban Porn. Enjoy while you can," and conclude with a call to action encouraging viewers to "Google Trump porn ban." The effectiveness of this approach is evidenced by a significant surge in related search queries nationally since the campaign's launch in mid-October, according to Google Trends data. This indicates that the message is resonating with viewers and prompting further engagement.
"This demographic has already heard all the traditional campaign messaging, and it hasn’t worked," Nowinski said. "We’re meeting voters where they are,
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10-31-2024, 08:12 AM
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#23392
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sylvan Lake
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I am going to be in the States on Jan 6 2025..........
A tiny part of my is concerned about it.
The place is really becoming a volatile #### hole.
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
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10-31-2024, 08:49 AM
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#23393
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by undercoverbrother
I am going to be in the States on Jan 6 2025..........
A tiny part of my is concerned about it.
The place is really becoming a volatile #### hole.
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Not sure where you are headed, but right now it's calm, quiet business as usual.
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10-31-2024, 08:53 AM
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#23394
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corporatejay
30-40% of non whites voted for trump and 40% of women. It's fun to demonize straight white men but 49% of the country is going to vote for Trump again and you guys act like they are some homogenous group of deplorables, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
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Fine, Trump supporters are a heterogenous mix of many varieties of deplorables and many varieties of morons.
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10-31-2024, 08:55 AM
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#23395
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Are gambling sites going to pay out when Trump contests the election for months and months?
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10-31-2024, 08:56 AM
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#23396
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: wearing raccoons for boots
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Looks like someone had a talk with the Lutnick guy that was all in on antivax RFK last night. Today he posted about how him and his family are all vaxxed up ...but he still wants wormbrain to have all the data about vaccines so he can test out the science (and continue to not understand it)
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10-31-2024, 08:57 AM
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#23397
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by undercoverbrother
I am going to be in the States on Jan 6 2025..........
A tiny part of my is concerned about it.
The place is really becoming a volatile #### hole.
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At least the sitting president isn’t going to hamstring security this time.
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10-31-2024, 09:02 AM
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#23398
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Montréal, QC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puffnstuff
Well you gotta hand it to these folks
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...Adult-Websites
"We're targeting guys who don't find the last 12 years of anti-Trump messaging from Democrats particularly persuasive," said Wally Nowinski, co-founder of FTW PAC. "If anything, they like that he is problematic or brash. But they don't know what J.D. Vance and Trump's allies on Project 2025 are cooking up, and they might not be on board with that."
The campaign leverages high-traffic adult websites to deliver targeted messages to this crucial demographic through 10-second ads that run before adult videos. These ads feature an image of Donald Trump with the caption "Trump's Project 2025 Will Ban Porn. Enjoy while you can," and conclude with a call to action encouraging viewers to "Google Trump porn ban." The effectiveness of this approach is evidenced by a significant surge in related search queries nationally since the campaign's launch in mid-October, according to Google Trends data. This indicates that the message is resonating with viewers and prompting further engagement.
"This demographic has already heard all the traditional campaign messaging, and it hasn’t worked," Nowinski said. "We’re meeting voters where they are,
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Based
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10-31-2024, 09:02 AM
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#23399
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Are gambling sites going to pay out when Trump contests the election for months and months?
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December 11 is the "safe harbor" deadline. All states must have any controversies or lawsuits resolved by this date.
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10-31-2024, 09:13 AM
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#23400
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: A small painted room
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Last time Trump was president we were lucky he mostly wanted to go golfing all the time and deny that covid existed. I'm worried about this term because he can barely walk and won't be golfing all that much.
Almost wondering if Trump's serious bout with covid during his term has accelerated his decline
Last edited by calumniate; 10-31-2024 at 09:15 AM.
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