Can't remember if it was posted here, but sort of along the same lines as Arnold's endorsement, here's Bautista taking down Trump's "masculinity" on Kimmel, pretty hilarious.
I do think it does something to have these big strong dudes from hyper-masculine backgrounds make a point about voting for Harris.
Bob is not a deplorable. He's not a Trumpist. He leans Republican at the best of times because its good for the economy (he tells himself). Bob does not work in Coal or Oil and Gas. He's got a good job. He's "middle class"
To vote for Trump over Harris, Bob has to further ignore:
- the record growth in the USA over the last 4 years of Biden/Harris
- the recent news of a potential soft economic landing
- Global inflation rates and the USA coming out as one of the better countries in this regard.
I'll answer my own question. It's not rational. it's actually insane. there is no other reason.
But how does someone like Bob do it? How is this race THAT close.
Bob doesn't follow politics.
He doesn't care about record growth, and doesn't care about Global inflation rates vs the US rates.
He cares that everything at the store is more expensive. He cares that the price of gas has gone up. That's it. That's all.
He doesn't care about the reasons behind those increases. He just knows they were less under Trump.
10 years ago he watched a few episodes of the Apprentice, and thinks it's good to have a successful businessman "outsider" in charge of government.
His buddies (all white straight men) who watch Fox News are all in on Trump and Bob doesn't see a reason to go against the grain. They say some crazy stuff about Harris and drag queens, but he's not dipping a toe in those waters.
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He doesn't care about record growth, and doesn't care about Global inflation rates vs the US rates.
He cares that everything at the store is more expensive. He cares that the price of gas has gone up. That's it. That's all.
He doesn't care about the reasons behind those increases. He just knows they were less under Trump.
10 years ago he watched a few episodes of the Apprentice, and thinks it's good to have a successful businessman "outsider" in charge of government.
His buddies (all white straight men) who watch Fox News are all in on Trump and Bob doesn't see a reason to go against the grain. They say some crazy stuff about Harris and drag queens, but he's not dipping a toe in those waters.
30-40% of non whites voted for trump and 40% of women. It's fun to demonize straight white men but 49% of the country is going to vote for Trump again and you guys act like they are some homogenous group of deplorables, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
30-40% of non whites voted for trump and 40% of women. It's fun to demonize straight white men but 49% of the country is going to vote for Trump again and you guys act like they are some homogenous group of deplorables, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
30-40% of non whites voted for trump and 40% of women. It's fun to demonize straight white men but 49% of the country is going to vote for Trump again and you guys act like they are some homogenous group of deplorables, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
Sure, you can look at previous voting stats and see it's also old, rural, evangelical, and those with little education who favour Trump. Lots of nuance available.
Both sites have trump with a marginally higher probability of winning Pennsylvania. The 538 model and your projection are saying the same thing. There is no difference between saying Harris buy a fraction of a point and saying a 52% prob of Trump winning and a 48% chnace of Harris winning.
So you actually agree with the models and polling within the accuracy of the data.
Everyone knows it's going to be close. What we're trying to sort out is who is actually going to win the state. Almost all of the recent polls (Oct. 20 and onward) have Trump winning or a tied result. Only one poll has Harris by 1.
On the other hand, the early vote shows Dems with a big lead in PA. Obviously that lead will shrink as more of the vote comes in, but it doesn't seem likely that the state swings to Trump.
Trump has the best chance based on polling numbers. You would have to ignore all of the data out there to think he is not the clear leader at the moment and recognize that a large percentage of the United States population is dumb as a post and will let their social media guide their lives. Trump and his followers own social media right now, so they have a massive advantage there. For that reason I think Trump has the inside track to 270, with probably 302 being the final count.
Having said all of that, there could be some problems brewing for Trump that could dramatically shift the needle. Number one, Trump is already laying the groundwork for a challenge in Pennsylvania, so they must have some inside data that shows them trailing there and likely to lose. Number two, the Puerto Rican vote becomes important. Florida has a big population of Puerto Rican voters, as does Pennsylvania, which could swing this vote in close Florida and Pennsylvania races. We already know Pennsylvania is in play, but it appears that Florida may have just been dragged into the mix as a state up for grabs. If Florida and Pennsylvania fall off the Trump train, Harris will win unless she collapses in Wisconsin and Michigan.
That's a lot of things that have to fall in Harris' favor. It is possible, but I still think Trump is going win by an electoral college edge and lose ugly in popular vote.
This is wrong...data shows the race as even
early voting shows independants breaking for Harris big time
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Trump has the best chance based on polling numbers. You would have to ignore all of the data out there to think he is not the clear leader at the moment and recognize that a large percentage of the United States population is dumb as a post and will let their social media guide their lives. Trump and his followers own social media right now, so they have a massive advantage there. For that reason I think Trump has the inside track to 270, with probably 302 being the final count.
Having said all of that, there could be some problems brewing for Trump that could dramatically shift the needle. Number one, Trump is already laying the groundwork for a challenge in Pennsylvania, so they must have some inside data that shows them trailing there and likely to lose. Number two, the Puerto Rican vote becomes important. Florida has a big population of Puerto Rican voters, as does Pennsylvania, which could swing this vote in close Florida and Pennsylvania races. We already know Pennsylvania is in play, but it appears that Florida may have just been dragged into the mix as a state up for grabs. If Florida and Pennsylvania fall off the Trump train, Harris will win unless she collapses in Wisconsin and Michigan.
That's a lot of things that have to fall in Harris' favor. It is possible, but I still think Trump is going win by an electoral college edge and lose ugly in popular vote.
You probably have a better sense of the "pulse" in the US, but I hope you are wrong. Maybe me trying to be positive. I think the Dems win and Harris makes history.
It also shows how MAGA supporters are bigger snowflakes if they are all up in arms about it.
I think it's more they're looking for any reason to fight.
In Ray Dalio's book The Changing World Order he touches on how at the end of a Dominant Powers cycle they turn to Populist Leaders who say they'll fight because at that point they think the system isn't working and they'd rather fight than collaborate to fix it.
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The only two questions that really matter for this election are
1) Who will turn out. Trump is going hard after low propensity voters, it's a big risk.
2) Who will have more cross party voters. Harris feels she's lost a portion of traditionally union traditionally dem voters (white working class), so she has pivoted hard towards lost republicans. It's a risky strategy.
The other 92% of the electorate is locked in, It's the 8% above.
Given that early turnout numbers do a bad job of telling you if Trumps bet paid off, and a horrible job of telling you if Harris' bet paid off, they are particularly un-meaningful at this time.
Just because the campaigns are making plays for those voters, doesn't mean the election will necessarily come down to those voters. And even if one campaign or the other (or both) get the voters they're trying to court, it doesn't necessarily mean they'll win the election.
Maybe the cake is already baked. Maybe one team already has the support they need to win and the other is screwed. Or maybe not. We don't know.
And I don't think Harris is solely campaigning for moderate republicans. There's quite a bit in her policy platform (and her speeches) for progressives and liberals to like.
I think it's wrong to dismiss the early vote. I don't think the election boils down to just the groups you mentioned. For instance the female vote, angered by the overturning of Roe, is a big X factor. We don't know how many Harris votes that will translate to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
No I absolutely disagree. Early voting is not a representative sample and therefore on its own, is nowhere near as indicative as a high quality poll.
That's great that more registered Republicans are voting early but unless you compare to previous trends, it's not telling you anything. What do you think bigger early voting numbers in Texas are telling you?
How is early voting not a representative sample?
The argument of "early vote skews Democratic due to reasons x, y, and z" doesn't seem to apply this year. There's no apparent skew to the Democrats when you look at the numbers. If anything, there might be a Republican skew when you look at Texas for example.
He doesn't care about record growth, and doesn't care about Global inflation rates vs the US rates.
He cares that everything at the store is more expensive. He cares that the price of gas has gone up. That's it. That's all.
He doesn't care about the reasons behind those increases. He just knows they were less under Trump.
10 years ago he watched a few episodes of the Apprentice, and thinks it's good to have a successful businessman "outsider" in charge of government.
His buddies (all white straight men) who watch Fox News are all in on Trump and Bob doesn't see a reason to go against the grain. They say some crazy stuff about Harris and drag queens, but he's not dipping a toe in those waters.
Are people just going to completely ignore that real median wage growth in the US grew faster under Trump than any other President in the last 50 years?
I'm not a Trumper at all - I think there's no way you can vote for him based on everything he's done and what he's said he's going to do. But to completely ignore that his economic record was actually pretty good for a lot of people is quite dumb.
All hope lies with women voters. They need to get out and vote in massive numbers like their lives depend on it. If that happens, Kamala wins.
Oddly, Harris's margin with women voters isn't as good as you'd think. She still leads among women by a lot but it is not as wide a margin as Biden had in 2020.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Are people just going to completely ignore that real median wage growth in the US grew faster under Trump than any other President in the last 50 years?
I'm not a Trumper at all - I think there's no way you can vote for him based on everything he's done and what he's said he's going to do. But to completely ignore that his economic record was actually pretty good for a lot of people is quite dumb.
Thanks to 8 years of Obama
This is the irony of politics...it takes years for policy to make a difference. Its like being an NHL GM for the bad years, drafting all the prospects, and then getting fired for the guy who is allowed to trade a first for a rental and win the cup.
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