American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

You have to bet $25 to win $1 on Trump winning Florida. People that think Florida or Texas are in play are nuts.

Harris is bet $7 to win $1 in Virginia, for context.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Degenerate sports gambler? Of course
Degenerate horse race guy? The OG gambling degenerate
Degenerate casino guy? Casinos are fun
Degenerate bingo player? Once you're 65, I guess.

But degenerate political gambler? Never thought I'd see the day.

[chedder]

Don't know how much celebrity endorsements matter but Arnold wrote a beauty. Hard on both sides but scathing when it comes to another Trump presidency.

https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/la...ump-rcna178025

[Paulie Walnuts]

Sounds like RFK is going to go right after vaccines.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851802427852271914

[Cali Panthers Fan]

*sigh*

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24814559/

Abstract
There has been enormous debate regarding the possibility of a link between childhood vaccinations and the subsequent development of autism. This has in recent times become a major public health issue with vaccine preventable diseases increasing in the community due to the fear of a 'link' between vaccinations and autism. We performed a meta-analysis to summarise available evidence from case-control and cohort studies on this topic (MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar up to April, 2014). Eligible studies assessed the relationship between vaccine administration and the subsequent development of autism or autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Two reviewers extracted data on study characteristics, methods, and outcomes. Disagreement was resolved by consensus with another author. Five cohort studies involving 1,256,407 children, and five case-control studies involving 9,920 children were included in this analysis. The cohort data revealed no relationship between vaccination and autism (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.06) or ASD (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.20), nor was there a relationship between autism and MMR (OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70 to 1.01), or thimerosal (OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.77 to 1.31), or mercury (Hg) (OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.07). Similarly the case-control data found no evidence for increased risk of developing autism or ASD following MMR, Hg, or thimerosal exposure when grouped by condition (OR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.98; p=0.02) or grouped by exposure type (OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.95; p=0.01). Findings of this meta-analysis suggest that vaccinations are not associated with the development of autism or autism spectrum disorder. Furthermore, the components of the vaccines (thimerosal or mercury) or multiple vaccines (MMR) are not associated with the development of autism or autism spectrum disorder.

For context an Odds Ratio or OR near 1 means no relationship at all. No risk whatsoever. If the odds ratio is below 1, it means that there's less chance of exposure leading to autism.

for ####s sakes...why are we still discussing this well researched and fully debunked idea on national news. Get that #### off the airwaves.

[GGG]

For those looking at early vote data specifically the Republican versus democratic split here is an interesting article on how that measure performed previously

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-ear...liably-predict

The answer is it’s not predictive. Most of the article is paywalled but the summary is available.

The other important message around polling to get out in light of Trumps voter fraud campaign is that although this election is very close it also has a very high probability of being a landslide in terms of electoral college because of how many very close states there are and how correlated polling errors are state to state.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-har...y?id=115283593

A normal polling error either way will result in a blowout.

[Josh]

I'm going to have to peace out on this thread, too much doom scrolling for me and this isn't helping.

Good luck with the gambling on politics......

[Paulie Walnuts]

I’ve never really paid attention but what is a transition team ? And Trump refused to sign something last time regarding this right?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I’ve never really paid attention but what is a transition team ? And Trump refused to sign something last time regarding this right?

The transition team gets access to classified information early and sits in meetings with their counterparts so that there isn’t information loss as you go from one admin to the next.

I don’t remember what Trump did last time

[puffnstuff]

Trump actually thought the people working in the Obama WH would be staying.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GGG

The transition team gets access to classified information early and sits in meetings with their counterparts so that there isn’t information loss as you go from one admin to the next.

I don’t remember what Trump did last time

The GSA documents ? To release money I believe.

[SutterBrother]

Wow.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851814100264714284

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851814100264714284

The woman filming it was more annoying. Wow...wow ...wow...

[Paulie Walnuts]

Do they not have security? One angry man against a bunch of women.

Looked like he was actually going to beat her up

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Do they not have security? One angry man against a bunch of women.

Looked like he was actually going to beat her up

Buckle up. Followers of Trump listened and drank bleach. He has now told them these workers are all traitors working to suppress freedom. No security.

I am so praying I am wrong on what is about to happen. These workers are heros.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

For those looking at early vote data specifically the Republican versus democratic split here is an interesting article on how that measure performed previously

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-ear...liably-predict

The answer is it’s not predictive. Most of the article is paywalled but the summary is available.

Data from 2016 (or dear god 1936) isn't relevant to 2024 because early voting and voting by mail is more popular among Republicans now than it ever used to be.

Pollsters have to call like... 100 people?... to get one person willing to respond. Polls aren't irrelevant, but I'll be keeping a closer eye on the early vote tallies than the polls.

The other important message around polling to get out in light of Trumps voter fraud campaign is that although this election is very close it also has a very high probability of being a landslide in terms of electoral college because of how many very close states there are and how correlated polling errors are state to state.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-har...y?id=115283593

A normal polling error either way will result in a blowout.

The only garbage I see floatin' around here is the electoral college!

No but seriously it's time that America got rid of that illegitimate system.

[opendoor]

I think there's likely some "herding" going on, where pollsters are (either consciously or unconsciously) adjusting their weights to produce a desired result (a statistical tie in this case) that matches other pollsters.

Even if the swing state races were tied, you'd expect more randomness in the poll numbers, with some showing Harris with a 3-4 point lead and others showing Trump with a similar lead. But instead, nearly half the recent swing state polls are showing the race being +/- 1 point, which is more than double the rate you'd expect even in a truly tied race.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

5.7 million votes already cast in FL, with Rs having a 45% to 34% lead.

Doesn't look good for a Harris win there. I'm not saying it's impossible, but that's a very steep hill to climb.

45% registered republicans to 34% registered democrats isn't an 11 point lead for republican. Otherwise we wouldn't need an election, they could just give the office to the party with the most registrants.

Some registered Republicans will vote for Harris this year.