I think the pollsters have made some aggressive adjustments in their tabulation methods in response to being off in 2016 and 2020. While the polls look good for Trump at the moment, I think it's unwise to take these polls with anything more than a grain of salt. This is still very much a coinflip race.
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I kinda think Polievere wants Trump to lose? Canadian election is not till next October and Canadians still mostly despise Trump. Polievere will be on his knees for the Orange King, which will probably drive people away from him in Ontario and Quebec.
CBC actually speculated yesterday that Trudeau was trying to forestall his caucus rebellion, hoping a Trump win would finally turn things around for him.
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Trump having control of nukes was terrifying the first time, but at least there were guardrails still in place and a few sane individuals in the WH who kept him in check. That won't be the case this time, as his entire administration will no doubt be filled with loyal MAGA lunatics. The world will be in for a rough ride if he gets back into power, with Canada likely getting the worst of it.
I've been meaning to look up how long it took for Hitler to annex Austria. Just so I can set my watch and get my bug out kit ready.
Doesn’t take much to read the tea leaves and see in the states it seems people think Trump will win. Multiple major newspapers refusing to endorse a candidate because they’re terrified of retribution post election, tv outlets both sidesing everything, all coverage heavily slanted towards why Kamala is terrible under the auspices of “holding everyone accountable”.
Wouldn’t be a bad idea to steel yourself for what would seem to be an unbelievable outcome because hoo boy does it feel like we are in for a ride
This thread is the only place I am reading stuff like this. Plenty on reddit seem hopeful, this thread is unique in it's pessimism.
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I read that and said I resemble the first person of not being concerned before it’s too late.
But I think the second sentence is what is important. That it is only society’s belief in the norms of democracy that upholds democracy. My contention is exactly that. The US norms around democracy are such that Trump will be unable to hold onto to power beyond this term.
Ok, if Trump wins 2024, let's assume for the sake of argument he won't be able to stay in office beyond 2028.
Does that make the danger of Trump and his movement any less threatening? I'd argue it doesn't.
Trump's ability to suppress/shut down media outlets and voices that do anything other than lick his boots, is far greater now than it was in 2017. He's got the Supreme Court in his pocket, and a plan to replace the staff of all government agencies (including FBI, CIA, DOJ, FCC, NSA) with hardline loyalists and fascists. Once the agencies have been re-staffed, Trump will have sweeping powers to shut down unfriendly outlets by simply declaring them a threat to the country.
He's already said that he wants to silence everyone from CBS to MSNBC to late night comedy hosts.
So by 2028, the media in America will be similar to the media in Russia. Trump will have massive majority support simply because dissenting voices won't be heard by the public.
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If you note in my comments all I said was that the complete dismantling into a dictatorship would take longer than Trumps term. I did not say the US would continue to have free and fair elections. (Though I think it is more likely than not that an election which the republicans could lose will still occur, the oligarchy benefits from the two party system)
I'd argue that a country that has "elections" where only one party has any chance of winning (due to an authoritarian crackdown on political opposition) is functionally not that different from a dictatorship (or just simply is one). As for the US oligarchy, I think you'll find they're largely backing Trump.
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I also think what the article doesn’t recognize is the number of times when a person with autocratic tendencies took power and was unable to seize power because of the said norms. The Prime example being Trump last time.
This is reductive. Trump didn't try to seize power last time until the very last minute when he realize he had just lost the election. He flailed and tried everything he could to maintain his hold on the presidency, but due to lack of preparation his efforts failed. This time around, he and his people have had 4 years to prepare a much more well thought out plan for turning America into a fascist dictatorship. Project 2025 is a big part of that.
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Ultimately to sieze power people will need to be willing to throw people out windows until resistance stops. I don’t think we are there yet.
I don't think this is the case. Who needs to be thrown out a window for Trump to implement schedule F and silence his political opponents?
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Last edited by Mathgod; 10-25-2024 at 05:03 PM.
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Trump is an hour late for his hate rally in Michigan but sent a video from the plane explaining...that he will actually be 3 hours late.
And his sheeple have started heading for the exits, their little tummies empty of their new ball of hate
Trump had 4 years to fix the border problem when he was President and did nothing. Claimed he was going to build a wall and Mexico was going to pay for it. Never got finished and Mexico didn't pay a dime.
Trump had 4 years to fix the border problem when he was President and did nothing. Claimed he was going to build a wall and Mexico was going to pay for it. Never got finished and Mexico didn't pay a dime.
Now he claims he's going to cancel all income tax and China will pay for it, same bull#### story, same grifting turd
I do not understand your fascination with polling if all it ultimately is is a coin flip
Polling determines that it is a coin flip.
As to why I think that polling tells you what is going on in a race on a relative basis when there is movement outside the accuracy of the poll.
It’s also interesting to think about that an election is just a very large poll. It’s just the one that counts. You could hold the election on different days and in the right races we have recently had it could change the results. (Less likely with mail ins and early voting). But an election still isn’t a perfect sample of the will of the electorate.
I also like the nature of the problem. People have an opinion but you need to figure out how to get a representative sample. So in theory the information to know who is going to win is available however it’s nots possible to acquire.
The answer of it’s a coin flip is satisfying and shouldn’t be looked at as a failure. Recognizing that this election is not predicable in foresight but will be very predicable with hindsight once we know which markets matter this time is part of what polling gives us.
I also like the concept that you can guess right but that doesn’t make you good a predicting elections.
