American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

https://thecycle.substack.com/p/what...-if-trump-wins




A must-read.

Yeah I mean…. I’ve known this since Grade 7 and I wasn’t even a good student. This #### has been spoon fed to all of us our entire lives, and it’s still happening….

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Can we trust anything that Musk says or does?

This includes his PAC, the illegal attempts to sway the election, etc?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849623155586875897

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849641137461395922

No, they should investigate.

You don't just "lock him up".

Keith Olbermann is a ####ing tool. He's as stupid as any right wing propagandist.

[photon]

A government contractor (Musk) also running the ground game for a presidential candidate and giving $1M a day to registered voters in swing states. What a timeline.

Probably the only thing that still makes me think the reality is more towards Harris is the huge disparity between the money and effects of the money differences. Harris has vastly out-raised Trump, and Harris has huge income from individual small donors while Trump's small donors have dried up and he's depending on rich donors like Musk.

As a result Trump's ground game almost doesn't exist and he's outsourced it to PACs now that PACs can coordinate with campaigns in that regard, and reports are that that isn't going all that well. The PACs started late and aren't well trained and the people are paid while Harris has a large well trained mass of volunteers.

Just flip the darn coin already!

[MrButtons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...town-hall/amp/

And people are attacking Harris for not being able to “think on her feet”. This man is running for president and is genuinely an idiot

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

No, they should investigate.

You don't just "lock him up".

Keith Olbermann is a ####ing tool. He's as stupid as any right wing propagandist.

He probably also harps on authoritarianism and how Trump would lead America down that path at the same time, not realizing what he's calling for!

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

That’s like saying in a coin flipping contest if you win you aren’t lucky.

I do not understand your fascination with polling if all it ultimately is is a coin flip

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well I'm going against the polls so lets see what is worth what in a couple weeks
Hillary had a major scandal right before the election and had over confident supporters...this is not 2016

How are you going against the polls? Are you predicting a 7 point Harris win?

The last two elections Trump did meaningfully better in PA than he did nationally. If that happens again, it seems likely he wins.

There are some reasons to think that might not repeat, but I really don't think you've hit on them.

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I do not understand your fascination with polling if all it ultimately is is a coin flip

Doom scrolling?

[calumniate]

I think Kamala calling Trump a fascist was warranted. But she didn't go about it the right way in my opinion.
How I think she should have approached the question is that yes, his campaign does show traits of fascism and run through all of the reasons why. The holocaust museum has something to that effect, noted in this article:
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/0...ns-of-fascism/

This way she could have demonstrated why he might be a fascist, without directly calling him one and then going on to talk about working families, etc.

[activeStick]

I think a lot of what Harris is doing and has been doing, are responses to Trump and what he's doing. Their campaign has decided that instead of holding themselves to a higher standard like they've done before, they'll lower themselves to Trump's level and go at it punch for punch. Michelle Obama alluded to this change in strategy when she spoke at the DNC. Trump was the first person to start calling her a communist and "Komrade Kamala", so Harris is responding back in kind by calling Trump a fascist. I personally don't support this approach, but we'll see if it works in a few weeks!

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by GGG

I read that and said I resemble the first person of not being concerned before it’s too late.

But I think the second sentence is what is important. That it is only society’s belief in the norms of democracy that upholds democracy. My contention is exactly that. The US norms around democracy are such that Trump will be unable to hold onto to power beyond this term. If you note in my comments all I said was that the complete dismantling into a dictatorship would take longer than Trumps term. I did not say the US would continue to have free and fair elections. (Though I think it is more likely than not that an election which the republicans could lose will still occur, the oligarchy benefits from the two party system)

I also think what the article doesn’t recognize is the number of times when a person with autocratic tendencies took power and was unable to seize power because of the said norms. The Prime example being Trump last time.

Ultimately to sieze power people will need to be willing to throw people out windows until resistance stops. I don’t think we are there yet.

This makes more sense, thank you. Glad to see your acknowledgment of the situation. I do agree with you that it’s possible that the deterioration of US norms and people following democracy might take longer than a Trump presidency, but that’s the definitive direction and we’ll get there soon enough.

Also I think Musk is flirting with being detained, it’s possible that he is a massive security risk if he’s meeting with Putin given his power and influence. I would imagine that you could find a way to charge him for treason. They used to hang people for this kind of thing didn’t they? He should be afforded protection obviously under existing laws but personally if I was American I’d want that “investigation” to be conducted RFN and super ####ing quickly.

[Fuzz]

What a world, where you can't even point out facts. Oh no, you have to temper that for the people who don't deal in facts. It's fine if the other side lies in such a steady stream it's impossible to fact check, but if you want to be above board, you have to not tell the whole truth? Because that's bad...for reasons.

[ResAlien]

Doesn’t take much to read the tea leaves and see in the states it seems people think Trump will win. Multiple major newspapers refusing to endorse a candidate because they’re terrified of retribution post election, tv outlets both sidesing everything, all coverage heavily slanted towards why Kamala is terrible under the auspices of “holding everyone accountable”.

Wouldn’t be a bad idea to steel yourself for what would seem to be an unbelievable outcome because hoo boy does it feel like we are in for a ride

[Strange Brew]

A couple of major high quality polls aren't great for Harris.

Trump with a 2 point lead in an Emerson poll in PA
Trump with a 1 point lead nationally in an NYT poll.

Both tossups and within MOE, but it's the direction of the movement.

[activeStick]

Getting major second hand embarrassment vibes from Kevin O'Leary here. Boy, he really annoys me and moreso every time he points out he's Canadian. You can see him resort to trying to talk over Abby Phillips when she responds to his take with facts.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849820703156994307

[ResAlien]

The post above is a good example of what I mean. It feels like every time that person links something in here it’s one of those “wow look how silly this is” posts but it seems to most often be slamming Kamala or Dems. Amplifying a message is an interesting way of combating it

[Senator Clay Davis]

Trump landslide looks likely at this point, decent chance he even wins a surprise state (Minnesota?). Can see this is getting priced in more too around the world. It would be nice if the pain of this could be limited to only Americans, but it's gonna be ugly globally.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Trump landslide looks likely at this point, decent chance he even wins a surprise state (Minnesota?). Can see this is getting priced in more too around the world. It would be nice if the pain of this could be limited to only Americans, but it's gonna be ugly globally.

Yeah, it's very concerning for sure. Good for Russia I guess

[Senator Clay Davis]

Not sure a global depression would be good for anyone, even Russia. Other than all our economies will be as #### as theirs.

[direwolf]

If Harris wins, it’ll be women who get her there. And from what I’ve been reading, women have been coming out in huge numbers in early voting. I still have a tiny shred of faith that this will turn out well for the Dems. We shall see.