American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I was under the understanding that third trimester abortions were also illegal already, barring mortality issues for the mother.

Fascist propaganda isn't about truth, it's about anger.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Twitter is worthwhile just for people such as Daniel Dale. I’d call him an American hero but he’s Canadian.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1836771363282948369

I like the phrasing of these. The word lies has been overused as it’s been applied to politicians as everything that is not 100% true. It lacks the nuance of the extent of the lie. I enjoy the term vivid tales with no basis in reality for things like the eating cats trope.

[dino7c]

Honestly its time to stop repeating his nonsense...nobody is changing their mind

Get the vote out

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

OK I'm starting to side with the people who say polling is worthless... most of these are even from the same day.

Last 2 polls from Wisconsin? Trump +2, Harris +6.

North Carolina? Trump +4, Even, Harris +2.

Michigan? Harris +1, Harris +8.

PA? Even, Harris +5.

WHAT AM I TO BELIEVE

That polling has a +/- 3% statistical bias and probable a 2-3% systemic sample methodology bias leading to +/- 5% bias on any single poll.

Even just looking at statistical bias of +/- 3 that allows for a six point swing which all but the Wisconsin poll falls into. And even then the +/- 3 is 19/20 times so having the odd poll +/-4.5 is a reasonable outcome.

In a close race polling can only tell you it’s a close race

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Francis's Hairpiece

Does he type in all caps because he doesn't understand grammar?

He’s out of ketchup.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The first step in handing the election to Trump regardless of the vote has been made

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/geo...st-2024-09-20/

If he becomes president, that’s the likely route. Thank God for Marc Elias and his team. Elias says he’s got this.

[MoneyGuy]

Trump the coward is refusing a second debate. If you win a debate handily as he claims, you want another. They should go ahead anyway with Kamala and a blank podium where Trump should be. She takes moderator questions. That could be the final nail in Trump’s coffin.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Francis's Hairpiece

Does he type in all caps because he doesn't understand grammar?

Yes. Trump communicates at a 3rd grade level. He is not a smart person and never was, regardless of what Peter12 thought on the issue. His father bought him into Wharton, and his contributions kept his son from flunking out. It doesn't take a ####ing economist to figure out that someone with a real Wharton degree would understand the impact of tariffs on the consumer, and just how bad they are for inflation, and not make them central to the policy structure of their presidency. Trump has no concept of civics or how the constitution works because they are beyond his capacity to comprehend such matters. This is a man who has gone bankrupt six times. He clearly is a moron at all levels and not qualified for the position. Only the cult of personality keeps him in the mix.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Titan2

Where on earth did this post term abortion idea come from? I am sure he heard something at some point. Maybe a sick baby that died?

It's all from when Governor Northam was VA governor. He is a pediatric neurologist and was uniquely qualified to weigh in on a debate about loosening VA abortion rules. He had a good answer, but Republicans have pounced on it as supporting infantcide.

Northam brought up a hypothetical situation of providing palliative care in cases where a fetus has severe deformities or is non-viable.

“When we talk about third-trimester abortions, these are done with the consent of, obviously, the mother, with the consent of the physicians — more than one physician, by the way — and it’s done in cases where there may be severe deformities, there may be a fetus that’s nonviable,” Northam said then.

“So, in this particular example, if a mother’s in labor, I can tell you exactly what would happen,” Northam continued. “The infant would be delivered. The infant would be kept comfortable. The infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.”

Northam and Del. Tran’s comments were met with backlash from Republicans, who claimed Northam suggested support for infanticide.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Trump the coward is refusing a second debate. If you win a debate handily as he claims, you want another. They should go ahead anyway with Kamala and a blank podium where Trump should be. She takes moderator questions. That could be the final nail in Trump’s coffin.

No that would backfire. Kamala talking about policy leaves people the ability to attack the specific policy compared with Trump who has said nothing about he would do it.

An hour of a moderator asking for plans on immigration would not go well for any candidate because there aren’t solution only nuanced approaches to make things better. The electorate doesn’t here nuance.

An empty podium debate would just enhance republicans biggest advantage the ability to not commit to policy while people argue over democratic policy.

[SutterBrother]

Neither side wants a second debate.

Trumps handlers watched him get worked.

Harris’s knew Trump would never agree to a second, so could play the “coward” card.

She scored a 9/10 on the test. You don’t re-take it shooting for perfection.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Trump the coward is refusing a second debate. If you win a debate handily as he claims, you want another. They should go ahead anyway with Kamala and a blank podium where Trump should be. She takes moderator questions. That could be the final nail in Trump’s coffin.

I actually disagree on the bolded. And I said the same thing after Biden got destroyed in the 1st debate - that is, that Trump should not under any circumstance debate Biden again if he wanted to be strategic. Just let that 1st debate stand as the last one anyone can reference and do not let Biden redeem himself in a 2nd one. In this case, given how Trump lives in his own world, I don't have much doubt that he again feels he won the 1st debate against Harris, despite how most other people see it.

And similarly, on the flip side, I don't think Kamala should give Trump a chance to redeem himself. Leave the clips of Trump saying crap like, "they're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats, they're eating the pets", circulating. Trump can't do any worse, don't give him a chance to do better.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I actually disagree on the bolded. And I said the same thing after Biden got destroyed in the 1st debate - that is, that Trump should not under any circumstance debate Biden again if he wanted to be strategic. Just let that 1st debate stand as the last one anyone can reference and do not let Biden redeem himself in a 2nd one. In this case, given how Trump lives in his own world, I don't have much doubt that he again feels he won the 1st debate against Harris, despite how most other people see it.

And similarly, on the flip side, I don't think Kamala should give Trump a chance to redeem himself. Leave the clips of Trump saying crap like, "they're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats, they're eating the pets", circulating. Trump can't do any worse, don't give him a chance to do better.

You make good points and may be correct. I just think he’d spout more nonsense and Harris would have another strong performance.

[Itse]

I think there's a real chance Trump could have a serious meltdown if he started to feel like he was losing again in a debate.

I also agree that the optics of a similar performance would really hurt Trump, and would solidify the idea of Harris dominating Trump intellectually. Trumps image can handle one loss like this, but losing a rematch would be a different thing.

That said, ithe benefits are probably not likelu enough to be worth the risks.

[puffnstuff]

43 days till election, 'Black Nazi' Robinson's campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, finance director, and senior advisor have all resigned.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Party of pro-life everyone

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/rcna171631

The number of women in Texas who died while pregnant, during labor or soon after childbirth skyrocketed following the state’s 2021 ban on abortion care — far outpacing a slower rise in maternal mortality across the nation, a new investigation of federal public health data finds.

From 2019 to 2022, the rate of maternal mortality cases in Texas rose by 56%, compared with just 11% nationwide during the same time period, according to an analysis by the Gender Equity Policy Institute. The nonprofit research group scoured publicly available reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and shared the analysis exclusively with NBC News.

[getbak]

The worse part of that story is it makes an 11% nationwide rise is maternal mortality look like a positive.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by getbak

The worse part of that story is it makes an 11% nationwide rise is maternal mortality look like a positive.

I wonder if some of that is covid related, given the time period?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by getbak

The worse part of that story is it makes an 11% nationwide rise is maternal mortality look like a positive.

I think you need to be really careful with maternal mortality over this time period as the record keeping and documentation has changed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts...-data/679367/#

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/maternal-mo...%20certificate.

Now this checkbox should have been fully rolled out in all states by 2018 and no longer cause an affect but I do wonder when Texas had it fully implemented. Also does other state data in anti-abortion care states match these results?

This is interesting in 2019 they recieved funding to enhance the surveillance of maternal deaths

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/maternal-...view-committee

Later in 2019, the Texas Department of State Health Services and MMMRC were awarded a Center for Disease Control and Prevention funding for the for the Enhancing Reviews and Surveillance to Eliminate Maternal Mortality (ERASE MM) Program.  

This information may be correct, it also may have large data issues for this comparison.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/maternal-mo...e-Data-508.pdf

The above is the 2018 data. Does it make sense that Texas as a below US average maternal death rate given its Obesity rates and the general lower health care outcomes of red states?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I wonder if some of that is covid related, given the time period?

Trumpers will say they all died from the vaccine