American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don’t see the conflict

Polymarket wins by taking a Vig off the amount bet. Vegas doesn’t care who wins the Super Bowl.

And in the Polymarket case they don’t even have to set the line.

yes they certainly do

His new model and his old model are very different right now...lets see who is more accurate next month

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well that wasn't me and you are explaining the old Nate...he is heavily invested in Trump being perceived as the "favourite" The guy stands to gain MILLIONS of dollars from Trump being the betting favourite and losing. I would not be looking to him and his method right now.

We can see how it plays out but I think his numbers are inaccurate

I've listened to Nate and read his books and blog posts for 10+ years, he seems the same as ever.

He has also clearly described how his model is the one from 538 and why there has been a widening difference in predictions.

Nates model is largely polls based.

538 has a new model that they created, and it assigns a large weighting to fundamentals. This means it's discounting actual polls to favour of things that are more opinions.

Personally, i don't think fundamentals are going to play as big of a factor this year due to the rhetoric and misinformation campaigns, so I would favour the polls based approach that Nate is following.

Finally, Nate just said on the Rest is POlitics podcast that he wouldn't be on a 50:50 race as it's a coin flip. 50:50 is what his model says the race is now, as well as betting sites like polymarket are saying.

Where he said it makes sense to bet is where the markets are quite different from his model (for example 2016, when convention had Clinton at 95%+, and Nate had her around 70%).

In addition he said he could bet based on early results, as his model will identify trends that will not be apparent.

Anyways, maybe I'm wrong and this is all a very elaborate con game that will cost Nate his future as a political pundit. If this is a con game, then the worst case is that more people get out to vote for Harris.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

yes they certainly do

His new model and his old model are very different right now...lets see who is more accurate next month

Go read how poly market makes money. Then come back here. What is the basis that you state they make money on a trump loss?

Also when you refer to his old model which model are you referring to?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

I've listened to Nate and read his books and blog posts for 10+ years, he seems the same as ever.

He has also clearly described how his model is the one from 538 and why there has been a widening difference in predictions.

Nates model is largely polls based.

538 has a new model that they created, and it assigns a large weighting to fundamentals. This means it's discounting actual polls to favour of things that are more opinions.

Personally, i don't think fundamentals are going to play as big of a factor this year due to the rhetoric and misinformation campaigns, so I would favour the polls based approach that Nate is following.

Finally, Nate just said on the Rest is POlitics podcast that he wouldn't be on a 50:50 race as it's a coin flip. 50:50 is what his model says the race is now, as well as betting sites like polymarket are saying.

Where he said it makes sense to bet is where the markets are quite different from his model (for example 2016, when convention had Clinton at 95%+, and Nate had her around 70%).

In addition he said he could bet based on early results, as his model will identify trends that will not be apparent.

Anyways, maybe I'm wrong and this is all a very elaborate con game that will cost Nate his future as a political pundit. If this is a con game, then the worst case is that more people get out to vote for Harris.

You might say you are a fan of his...

his is obviously influencing opinion while being on the board of the biggest election betting platform.

he stands to gain more from a Trump loss...ideally after pushing more betters that direction as he already has.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

Go read how poly market makes money. Then come back here.

Also when you refer to his old model which model are you referring to?

538
and its a conflict of interest, you can dress it up however you like. Polymarket is paying him as an advisor even though they "make money either way"

like I said take his model however you like, I think it is way off...we find out soon.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

538
and its a conflict of interest, you can dress it up however you like. Polymarket is paying him

You are aware that the current 538 model is Not the historical 538 model. Nate Silver owned the legacy 538 model IP and the new 538 model is a model by a different person. So what is your method for comparing old Nate model to new Nate model? What is the difference between old 538 and current Nate?

Secondly How does poly market make money? How do they profit off a Trump win. They charge fees based on bets. They are collecting an Ante in the poker game.

Finally how will we find out soon? We are looking a a statistical model for a single event. Which model is better is not which model produces a more accurate result in one instance. It’s which model produces a more accurate result over time.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

How much of a degenerate do you have to be to bet on elections lol. I guess there's still wrestling to bet on to be even lower.

I hope FanDuel sponors Trump and Bet365.com Harris with the ads on their suits.

Live betting odds with special guest Cabbie.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

How much of a degenerate do you have to be to bet on elections lol. I guess there's still wrestling to bet on to be even lower.

I have a bet on this election.

[GGG]

Also are you really objecting to the difference between Silvers current 50/50 to 538s 60/40. Those are the same prediction.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

You are aware that the current 538 model is Not the historical 538 model. Nate Silver owned the legacy 538 model IP and the new 538 model is a model by a different person. So what is your method for comparing old Nate model to new Nate model?

Secondly How does poly market make money? How do they profit off a Trump win. They charge fees based on bets. They are collecting an Ante in the poker game.

Finally how will we find out soon? We are looking a a statistical model for a single event. Which model is better is not which model produces a more accurate result in one instance. It’s which model produces a more accurate result over time.

TRUMP LOSS as I have said many times

There is more money coming in on Trump...from Trumpers.
odd, its almost like its easier to gift them out of their money.

We can look at demographics of gamblers if you like...

age: Skews older
gender: Skews Male
economics: Skews Poor
Education: Skews no post secondary

Sounds like someone I know's voter demographics

Now if Trumpers are more likely to bet on my betting site do I want it to seem like his is going to win or lose?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

This is revisionist history. The Dems/Left pull out this tired crap every election. Mitt Romney was vilified but now "he's a decent man".




https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...kely-to-get-it

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs...cks-are-racist


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...ack-in-chains/

This is a bit different I think we can agree? Did they talk about pets being eaten? Flat our racism? Threatening WW3?

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Holy #### guys, you are now into Qanon territory.

Founders Fund is an investor in a lot of things, look at the portfolio. Your claims are baseless and conspiratorial.


https://foundersfund.com/portfolio/

He was literally hired as an Advisor and works internally within Polymarket since July you waterhead.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If you want to trust that an activist billionaire hiring a celebrity statistician for their betting site is just about that, and nothing else, well OK. Maybe you just haven't lost as much faith in humanity as I have, but I've come to understand that these guys don't do that sort of thing solely as a business transaction. My first inclination is to suspect malfeasance, and I don't think that's conspiracy theory thinking.

Well you have no evidence so in fact, it's 100% conspiracy theory thinking.

Peter Thiel is an investor in Polymarket, he didn't "hire" Nate Silver as an advisor, the founders of Polymarket did, and they probably see it as good business to make money. Do you have any evidence that Nate Silver makes more or less money on his predictions?

You still haven't explained why Nate Silver would agree to be manipulated.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

He was literally hired as an Advisor and works internally within Polymarket since July you waterhead.

You still haven't presented any evidence that this has impacted his models. Have his models changed a lot since July? Was the data before July good data and since his hiring as an advisor there has been a marked departure from his models?

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by dino7c

TRUMP LOSS as I have said many times

There is more money coming in on Trump...from Trumpers.
odd, its almost like its easier to gift them out of their money.

We can look at demographics of gamblers if you like...

age: Skews older
gender: Skews Male
economics: Skews Poor
Education: Skews no post secondary

Sounds like someone I know's voter demographics

Now if Trumpers are more likely to bet on my betting site do I want it to seem like his is going to win or lose?

Polymarket can't take bets from Americans.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Well you have no evidence so in fact, it's 100% conspiracy theory thinking.

Peter Thiel is an investor in Polymarket, he didn't "hire" Nate Silver as an advisor, the founders of Polymarket did, and they probably see it as good business to make money. Do you have any evidence that Nate Silver makes more or less money on his predictions?

You still haven't explained why Nate Silver would agree to be manipulated.

Money? Does this need to be said? Everything is being done for money or power, or both. You don't need a wall sized flow chart to puzzle this out.


And it's not conspiracy level thinking, it's observing the world around me and recognizing exactly how these people work, and how few scruples they have. Plenty of evidence for that, if you care to look. Is Nate one of those? No idea, but Peter is. And being Peter adjacent is at least enough to raise eyebrows. Or should be, anyway.

[devo22]

part of why I like Allan Lichtman (even though I think his model is severely outdated in 2024) is that he seemingly HATES Nate Silver lol. There seems to be a genuine dislike for each other.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Polymarket can't take bets from Americans.

And? I mean I saw two Maga hats in Calgary just today

Demographics on gamblers are what they are...here we are on a Calgary hockey website discussing the election.

Which model do you think is more accurate? Nate or 538?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Polymarket can't take bets from Americans.

And yet...


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...election-bets/

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You might say you are a fan of his...

his is obviously influencing opinion while being on the board of the biggest election betting platform.

he stands to gain more from a Trump loss...ideally after pushing more betters that direction as he already has.

He's influencing opinion to think Trump is going to win, but influencing the election to go Harris's way?