American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It got heated, but about policy and done with respect.

The guy attacking your country every chance he gets and the people he is running against has a chance. Spewing lies about immigrants eating pets. How does one watch this clown and think that’s presidential.

His racism needs to stop now. Someone could get hurt and maybe worse. A country openly walking around with gun and anger and angry at coloured people.

This is revisionist history. The Dems/Left pull out this tired crap every election. Mitt Romney was vilified but now "he's a decent man".

In other words, a Republican governor did exactly what feminist groups want elected officials to do, but the internet exploded with condemnation and liberal commentators reacted to his phrase “binders full of women” like he was a character from “A Handmaid’s Tale.”

Then Daily Beast columnist Michael Tomasky called Romney a “race-mongering pyromaniac.” Why? Because he referred to Obamacare as — wait for it — “Obamacare” in a speech to the NAACP.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...kely-to-get-it

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs...cks-are-racist


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...ack-in-chains/

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

This is deranged. He's the same person he was before, the data just doesn't align with your ideology anymore so you're dismissing it.

Oh god, speaking of deranged

Nate runs a site funded by Peter Thiel and is a shareholder in a betting agency called polymarkets taking millions of dollars in election bets. If that is who you want to go to for unbiased analysis go for it but his numbers will prove to be inaccurate IMO.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

This is deranged. He's the same person he was before, the data just doesn't align with your ideology anymore so you're dismissing it.

Except this time around he's getting paid by crypto betting platform Polymarket, which currently has $1b staked in the Trump v Harris betting pool.

Nate has been compromised and nothing he says regarding the election (or really, anything he has the ability to manipulate the betting odds on) should be taken seriously.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

This is revisionist history. The Dems/Left pull out this tired crap every election. Mitt Romney was vilified but now "he's a decent man".




https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...kely-to-get-it

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs...cks-are-racist


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...ack-in-chains/

Romney and Trump...same same lol

Maybe the bar has been significantly lowered since the Orange god entered politics

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Nate has been compromised, I wouldn't trust anything he puts out

By who? What happened?

EDIT - I see it's been answered

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by activeStick

By who? What happened?

Nate runs a site funded by Peter Thiel and is a shareholder in a betting agency called polymarkets taking millions of dollars in election bets. If that is who you want to go to for unbiased analysis go for it but his numbers will prove to be inaccurate IMO.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by activeStick

By who? What happened?

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket

Exclusive: Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news

[dino7c]

Nate stands to earn a lot of money with a Trump loss...as do all the books

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Except this time around he's getting paid by crypto betting platform Polymarket, which currently has $1b staked in the Trump v Harris betting pool.

Nate has been compromised and nothing he says regarding the election (or really, anything he has the ability to manipulate the betting odds on) should be taken seriously.

Holy #### guys, you are now into Qanon territory.

Founders Fund is an investor in a lot of things, look at the portfolio. Your claims are baseless and conspiratorial.


https://foundersfund.com/portfolio/

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Holy #### guys, you are now into Qanon territory.

Founders Fund is an investor in a lot of things, look at the portfolio. Your claims are baseless and conspiratorial.


https://foundersfund.com/portfolio/

If you don't know that Thiel is an activist investor who uses his investments to push for his own benefits, and is a huge Trump supporter, I'm not sure what else their is to ask. Do you know where your cat is?

[Senator Clay Davis]

How much of a degenerate do you have to be to bet on elections lol. I guess there's still wrestling to bet on to be even lower.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Oh god, speaking of deranged

Nate runs a site funded by Peter Thiel and is a shareholder in a betting agency called polymarkets taking millions of dollars in election bets. If that is who you want to go to for unbiased analysis go for it but his numbers will prove to be inaccurate IMO.

Are you the guy that's posted on here and doesn't understand how statistics work? I can't remember, but your post would indicate you are.

Anyways, Nate is a stats nerd doing nerdy things.

To simplify this, what Nate does is quite simple.

He aggregates all the polls, but he adjusts or reduces the impact of that poll based on that pollsters history of accuracy.

So a poll from a pollster that is all over the map doesn't have much impact. A pollstar that is always left leaning or right leaning is adjusted. Pollsters that are pretty accurate have more impact because they have a history of good polling.

You may not understand what he does, but there's almost no analysis, just computations based on historical data and current data.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Holy #### guys, you are now into Qanon territory.

Founders Fund is an investor in a lot of things, look at the portfolio. Your claims are baseless and conspiratorial.


https://foundersfund.com/portfolio/

Oh the ironing...

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If you don't know that Thiel is an activist investor who uses his investments to push for his own benefits, and is a huge Trump supporter, I'm not sure what else their is to ask. Do you know where your cat is?

What governance rights does Founders Fund have in Nate Silver's business? How do they direct his business? Is Peter Thiel on the board or even involved in this investment? Do you have any evidence that Nate Silver is willing to falsify data and spread lies due to Founder's Fund's investment? Do you have evidence beyond the investment that suggests Peter Thiel is manipulating Nate Silver?

You guys are buying into a conspiracy theory.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Oh the ironing...

Of what?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

Are you the guy that's posted on here and doesn't understand how statistics work? I can't remember, but your post would indicate you are.

Anyways, Nate is a stats nerd doing nerdy things.

To simplify this, what Nate does is quite simple.

He aggregates all the polls, but he adjusts or reduces the impact of that poll based on that pollsters history of accuracy.

So a poll from a pollster that is all over the map doesn't have much impact. A pollstar that is always left leaning or right leaning is adjusted. Pollsters that are pretty accurate have more impact because they have a history of good polling.

You may not understand what he does, but there's almost no analysis, just computations based on historical data and current data.

Well that wasn't me and you are explaining the old Nate...he is heavily invested in Trump being perceived as the "favourite" The guy stands to gain MILLIONS of dollars from Trump being the betting favourite and losing. I would not be looking to him and his method right now.

We can see how it plays out but I think his numbers are inaccurate

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well that wasn't me and you are explaining the old Nate...he is heavily invested in Trump being perceived as the "favourite" The guy stands to gain MILLIONS of dollars from Trump being the betting favourite and losing. I would not be looking to him and his method right now.

We can see how it plays out but I think his numbers are inaccurate

Can you explain where this is coming from?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

What governance rights does Founders Fund have in Nate Silver's business? How do they direct his business? Is Peter Thiel on the board or even involved in this investment? Do you have any evidence that Nate Silver is willing to falsify data and spread lies due to Founder's Fund's investment? Do you have evidence beyond the investment that suggests Peter Thiel is manipulating Nate Silver?

You guys are buying into a conspiracy theory.

If you want to trust that an activist billionaire hiring a celebrity statistician for their betting site is just about that, and nothing else, well OK. Maybe you just haven't lost as much faith in humanity as I have, but I've come to understand that these guys don't do that sort of thing solely as a business transaction. My first inclination is to suspect malfeasance, and I don't think that's conspiracy theory thinking.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Can you explain where this is coming from?

I have already have, he is on the board at Polymarket

what is polymarket?

"Polymarket is the country’s largest prediction market — a system allowing users to buy shares of an outcome, effectively creating a stock market on odds for certain events. The site covers both political and non-political events."

There is at the very least an obvious conflict on interest here...I wouldn't take his model a face value personally.

His former site (before being wooed away for millions of dollars by a hardcore billionaire Trump supporter) predicts a strong Harris probability while his "new" model basically flips the numbers.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I have already have, he is on the board at Polymarket

what is polymarket?

"Polymarket is the country’s largest prediction market — a system allowing users to buy shares of an outcome, effectively creating a stock market on odds for certain events. The site covers both political and non-political events."

There is at the very least an obvious conflict on interest here...I wouldn't take his model a face value personally.

I don’t see the conflict

Polymarket wins by taking a Vig off the amount bet. Vegas doesn’t care who wins the Super Bowl.

And in the Polymarket case they don’t even have to set the line.