[PGT] Flames lose 3-2, playoff hopes extinguished

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Wasn't the team 32nd in royal road attempts this season?

The fact that they are told to play such hard nosed north-south hockey tells me that coaching is having an impact on these numbers and it's kind of hiding how poor of a team they really are.

Cross ice passes just weren't part of the team's strategy this year.

It's really tough to say IMO. I think they are a playoff roster. I think coaching helped them in some ways in terms of maintaining possession, but I do think that coaching was meant to be very risk averse and it hurt them in terms of generating quality.

I'd love to see a similar roster roster (get rid of 4th line vets, play Pelletier, Ruzicka, Zary, Coronato) with a different coach...but I'm not sure that's smart with 6 upcoming UFAS that you need to make decisions on this summer.

And yeah Meghan Chayka posted a great chart showing some Year over year changes ...the inability/lack of attempts to make cross ice passes in the o-zone stands out. The odd-man rushes against change YoY stands out.

And so does the save percentage IMO. That save percentage on shots through traffic is abysmal, and it's something that was noticeable all year. Markstrom was terrible at fighting through traffic this year. Pretty much top 10 in goaltending by every metric last season, and this season bottom 6 in pretty much every metric. Just cratered the team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Wasn't the team 32nd in royal road attempts this season?

The fact that they are told to play such hard nosed north-south hockey tells me that coaching is having an impact on these numbers and it's kind of hiding how poor of a team they really are.

Cross ice passes just weren't part of the team's strategy this year.

Whenever a coach gets blames for something I always suggest asking yourself if it's likely he'd actually coach that way?

Can we think of any reason why Sutter would say "don't do any across the slot passes this year! None!" when his team scored a lot of goals doing exactly that the season before?

I can't see it.

Just like I couldn't see Bill Peters telling his team to back in on his goaltenders against the Avalanche in the playoffs.

Why?

I think to some degree the team doesn't have the mix that creates the chances that result in cross slot passing.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Whenever a coach gets blames for something I always suggest asking yourself if it's likely he'd actually coach that way?

Can we think of any reason why Sutter would say "don't do any across the slot passes this year! None!" when his team scored a lot of goals doing exactly that the season before?

I can't see it.

Just like I couldn't see Bill Peters telling his team to back in on his goaltenders against the Avalanche in the playoffs.

Why?

I think to some degree the team doesn't have the mix that creates the chances that result in cross slot passing.

I think there can be something to it being coaching for sure. Part of it might be a lack of passing talent for sure, but I do think strategy plays a huge role too.

If the coach is saying "Shot Volume, Shot Volume, Shot Volume". And if every time you make an offensive zone giveaway you are getting chastised for it, then you're going to be less likely to make those plays.

The coach has harped on shot volume, and limiting giveaways inside the other teams blueline all season...how doesn't that impact the team taking more risks to make some of those cross ice passes?

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Treliving's contract is done. He either gets multiple years or none. Hopefully Sutter resigns/retires though I think that's wishful thinking and he'll be back.

Hello again GM Darryl Sutter! What is Mike Keenan up to?

Can you imagine?? ugh

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Whenever a coach gets blames for something I always suggest asking yourself if it's likely he'd actually coach that way?

Can we think of any reason why Sutter would say "don't do any across the slot passes this year! None!" when his team scored a lot of goals doing exactly that the season before?

I can't see it.

Just like I couldn't see Bill Peters telling his team to back in on his goaltenders against the Avalanche in the playoffs.

Why?

I think to some degree the team doesn't have the mix that creates the chances that result in cross slot passing.

I don't think Sutter is telling them to avoid cross ice passes, but I do think he's telling them to get pucks towards the net above all, which I think correlates to the Flames being 1st in shot assists as per the graphic posted by SM18.

But also, I agree above all with you that the team's mix of players is wrong. I'm not sure another coach gets better results with this roster than Darryl (and I would bet against it). Just that I think some of these metrics are making the team look better than the results will show on paper.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

Hello again GM Darryl Sutter! What is Mike Keenan up to?

Can you imagine?? ugh

Yes. Yes, I can.

But instead of Mike Keenan, we'll get a budget Brent Sutter instead and his famous 5 defensmen powerplay.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

How are we first in the league in rush shots for? I would have believed it last year, but this year? The only explanation is that this is rush shot attempts, in which case 85% of them were probably high and wide.

Those goaltending numbers are just gruesome.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah sometimes you need to take a step back and wonder if the team is actually bad or if it's just a bad season.

I still don't think this is a bad roster TBH. They lacked chemistry and execution. Some questionable coaching decisions. Poor goaltending. And in the end the percentages caught up to them.

30 one goal losses

7-17 in overtime/SOs (pretty remarkable TBH - even 12-12 and they are easily in the playoffs)

Led the league in posts/crossbars hit

32nd ranked shooting percentage (8.8%)

27th ranked save percentage (.889%)

They finished 3rd in expected goals for at 55.1% in all situations.

Looking back at the past 10 seasons and these Flames are the first team I can see that finished with a 55%+ xGF and missed the playoffs. Only one other team finished top 3 in the league and missed the playoffs (17-18 Carolina Hurricanes).

Now maybe that's not indicative of the true talent of the roster, or maybe it is, but really going back to that Oilers series this team has been cursed. The team actually worked pretty hard all season, but got absolutely no reward for it, and I think that's why that entire team is so frustrated right now.

Darryl Sutter

2014-15 - Kings were 5th in xGF%. Missed the playoffs.
2016-17 - Kings were 3rd in xGF%. Missed the playoffs.
2020-21 - Flames were 3rd in xGF% under Sutter. 15-15 record. Missed Playoffs.
2022-23 - Flames were 3rd in xGF%. Missed the playoffs.

At what point do these results stop becoming about "bad luck" and start becoming a reflection of the system and coach in place? His teams are always analytically "elite" and while that's nice to point at on paper the results speaks for themselves in recent memory. That's 4 missed playoffs in his past 6 seasons as an NHL coach, with just 6 playoff wins total. That's not good enough.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think there can be something to it being coaching for sure. Part of it might be a lack of passing talent for sure, but I do think strategy plays a huge role too.

If the coach is saying "Shot Volume, Shot Volume, Shot Volume". And if every time you make an offensive zone giveaway you are getting chastised for it, then you're going to be less likely to make those plays.

The coach has harped on shot volume, and limiting giveaways inside the other teams blueline all season...how doesn't that impact the team taking more risks to make some of those cross ice passes?

Huberdeau was making cross ice passes in Florida why would he all of sudden just stop in Calgary?

It has to be making the safe play that is coached into them.

Chances for cross ice passes being tipped and turnovers are higher than ringing it along the boards and grinding back for the puck.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

Hello again GM Darryl Sutter!

Hopefully the talk that he has no interest in being GM again is true.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Yes. Yes, I can.

But instead of Mike Keenan, we'll get a budget Brent Sutter instead and his famous 5 defensmen powerplay.

Not to fearmonger but if Sutter isn't going to be the coach (and winds up as GM) he'll probably pick up a guy that he mentored to an extent a few years ago that is about to be on the scrap heap.

Dallas Eakins

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think there can be something to it being coaching for sure. Part of it might be a lack of passing talent for sure, but I do think strategy plays a huge role too.

If the coach is saying "Shot Volume, Shot Volume, Shot Volume". And if every time you make an offensive zone giveaway you are getting chastised for it, then you're going to be less likely to make those plays.

The coach has harped on shot volume, and limiting giveaways inside the other teams blueline all season...how doesn't that impact the team taking more risks to make some of those cross ice passes?

If that's the case sure.

But every team turns over the puck every time in the opposition zone unless they score.

Most coaches have a grey zone turnover rule (3 feet on either side of both bluelines) and taking the puck back to the line and losing it would be a huge issue for any coach.

But is he saying don't try a pass and just put it on net? If so for sure a coaching issue. But if it's put it on net if you don't have a play and the player doesn't see other options it could be a lack of vision from either/both of the guy with the puck and the guy not getting open.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

How are we first in the league in rush shots for? I would have believed it last year, but this year? The only explanation is that this is rush shot attempts, in which case 85% of them were probably high and wide.

Those goaltending numbers are just gruesome.

I dunno. They skate up ice, put a shot on net on a solo effort, for a one and done. It was practically Kadri's game mode for the second half of the season. You got a lot of that with guys like Dube and Mangiapane as well.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Huberdeau was making cross ice passes in Florida why would he all of sudden just stop in Calgary?

It has to be making the safe play that is coached into them.

Chances for cross ice passes being tipped and turnovers are higher than ringing it along the boards and grinding back for the puck.

It actually doesn't have to be anything.

It certainly could be.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

How are we first in the league in rush shots for? I would have believed it last year, but this year? The only explanation is that this is rush shot attempts, in which case 85% of them were probably high and wide.

Those goaltending numbers are just gruesome.

I think the number makes sense with the shoot from any angle with the rush shots per game.

The rush shots are high the rush chances and inner slot passes are low which confirms what we saw this year. Rush in and shoot, instead of holding the puck and making the extra play.

Also 31st in ozone cross ice passes.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by BigFlameDog

I get what you are saying but I bet none of us would score lol. Not even if we had gone 1090 in a row.

Hahah this reminds me of when a basketball blogger was claiming that most good rec players would average 6 points a game in the NBA and actual NBA players were like "no, rec level players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off".

I remember one summer when I was just out of Junior B and David Marcoux was looking for shooters for a bit of off-season work with Kipper and I was hoping I could help out. Lol turns out it was out of the question because my mediocre shooting ability didn't actually qualify as practice for an NHL goalie (I felt a bit insulted at the time but looking back, obviously they wanted pro or at least university level players).

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If that's the case sure.

But every team turns over the puck every time in the opposition zone unless they score.

Most coaches have a grey zone turnover rule (3 feet on either side of both bluelines) and taking the puck back to the line and losing it would be a huge issue for any coach.

But is he saying don't try a pass and just put it on net? If so for sure a coaching issue. But if it's put it on net if you don't have a play and the player doesn't see other options it could be a lack of vision from either/both of the guy with the puck and the guy not getting open.

He has literally said (paraphrasing) "We don't have the talent to make those plays, so we need to get shot volume on net".

I do think he is telling them just put it on net.

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Didn't he say you "would" be wrong? Not you were wrong?

No, he was inferring I was incorrect in saying I predicted this months ago.

Originally Posted by Bingo

So now we can't look at the big picture because we don't see it like you? There's another step. So patting yourself on the back and now only you have correct vision!

Sort of, ya! What I'm saying is your big picture view is incorrect. My opinion is the big picture is bleak and has been for decades. The difference is my opinion has facts/statistics to back it.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He has literally said (paraphrasing) "We don't have the talent to make those plays, so we need to get shot volume on net".

I do think he is telling them just put it on net.

The numbers reflect that.

1st in rush shots 31st in cross ice passes and 19th in inner slot passes and 17th in rush chances.

Pretty much tells you they rush in and just blast away, a team with no talent would benefit with that style of play.

[DeluxeMoustache]

That data all checks out

I don’t think Sutter is straight up telling them not to pass cross crease

I do think Sutter is telling them to work the puck around the zone, get it back to the D, get shots on net and traffic in front

As mentioned above, shot assists support this
Cross ice passes and passes to the slot data supports what I saw all year

There is something to the idea that the coaches believe they need to ‘just get pucks on net’
Rush shots are high but rush scoring chances are mid-low

On the D side, they allow too many odd man rushes. Better at suppressing shots than at suppressing scoring chances