[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by btimbit

For sure. I think Harris actually hurt Biden for this, too far to the left for a lot of undecided voters

???

Harris is not nearly as liberal as people would believe. She's just as moderate as Biden is and has a few issues that she skews liberal on.

[Azure]

Always found it interesting that a race this close where 4 more electoral votes could win it, and states like Alaska or Maine are never looked at as being important but could easily swing the race.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They lost Florida because Biden was a "socialist" Bernie ect. would have been slaughtered

To be fair, I think Ohio and Florida are now red states no matter what the Democrats do. It used to be that they decided elections but not anymore as the Democrats now have roots in Virginia, Arizona, and even Georgia.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Acey

As I said, I am dismissive of you phrasing it as if a 100% Trump victory occurs in a Biden 270-268 regardless of the conditions that resulted in that score.

You misread my post then. I said Donald J. Trump will continue along as the 45th President of the United States until the legal challenges are completed and a winner determined.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by btimbit

For sure. I think Harris actually hurt Biden for this, too far to the left for a lot of undecided voters

Makes me wonder if his running mate was Abrams would Georgia be called for Biden now?

I mean, maybe not, I don't know. But she would have fared well against Pence in the debate, maybe come off as less condescending as Harris can seem. Wouldn't have the "She should have run as a Republican" while simultaneously having the "Most radical left wing Senator in Congress" baggage.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I actually agree with 2/3 of those things. The wine cave Dems screaming about SC nominations while there are millions of people out of jobs and wondering how they're going to pay rent was just a perfect encapsulation of how out of the touch the Demcoratic elite is with average Americans.

And passing a second round of stimulus payments in the spring! What were they thinking??

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Azure

Always found it interesting that a race this close where 4 more electoral votes could win it, and states like Alaska or Maine are never looked at as being important but could easily swing the race.

Consider what would happen if Puerto Rico had statehood or at least electoral college votes.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It's not really left vs right, but more the Democrats not resonating with the working class like they used to. I mean, there's a reason that Trump can win Florida on the same ballot where a $15 minimum wage passed by over 20 points.

Yeah you're not going to get an argument from me that the Democrats are terrible with messaging and their traditional base.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

A further left Democrat would have gotten dummied.

The US isn't going to lurch to the left.

Where was the great coalition that was promised by Biden? It's too early to tell without the full numbers but so far it sounds like he lost the senior vote he was supposed to bring in, bled a massive amount of support among PoCs, and didn't deliver the huge suburban college-educated white vote share he was supposed to.

It also looks like he probably underperformed with independents. On what basis are you saying a progressive candidate would have done worse?

I'm not saying a progressive candidate would have fared better, but it's hard for me to see them doing much worse, and you would have had way higher voter enthusiasm metrics for one.

FTR, I'm not saying Bernie is or was that candidate, but the DNC needs to do some soul-searching after this.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I actually agree with 2/3 of those things. The wine cave Dems screaming about SC nominations while there are millions of people out of jobs and wondering how they're going to pay rent was just a perfect encapsulation of how out of the touch the Demcoratic elite is with average Americans.

You think they messed up courting moderate Republicans but also went too far left?

That's a thin needle to thread, you can't honestly believe both those things are true can you?

[ResAlien]

Regardless of how his turns out we can take solace in the fact that Democrats retained their title as kings of punching themselves in the dick.

[dino7c]

Biden winning means a lot. He will put decent people in charge of their respective departments and there will actually be a decent human being in the White House which is massive. If Trump won again he would have nothing to lose for the next four years which is terrifying.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Where was the great coalition that was promised by Biden? It's too early to tell without the full numbers but so far it sounds like he lost the senior vote he was supposed to bring in, bled a massive amount of support among PoCs, and didn't deliver the huge suburban college-educated white vote share he was supposed to.

It also looks like he probably underperformed with independents. On what basis are you saying a progressive candidate would have done worse?

I'm not saying a progressive candidate would have fared better, but it's hard for me to see them doing much worse, and you would have had way higher voter enthusiasm metrics for one.

FTR, I'm not saying Bernie is or was that candidate, but the DNC needs to do some soul-searching after this.

On the basis that clearly "socialist!" is still an effective strategy. If it could be used on someone who is even further left it would have been even more effective. Thus, they would have got dummied.

The US isn't ready for someone even approaching Bernie yet, let alone Bernie. If it happens it will be incremental.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by rubecube

FTR, I'm not saying Bernie is or was that candidate, but America needs to do some soul-searching after this.

Would change to that.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

You think they messed up courting moderate Republicans but also went too far left?

That's a thin needle to thread, you can't honestly believe both those things are true can you?

Typo. I think they went too hard on the (empty) identity politics and the "cancel culture" stuff. That said, with the cancel culture thing, I'm more referring to the Democrats constantly flogging the "decency and decorum/back to normal" stuff.

[Flashpoint]

A few thoughts after watching like 27 hours of election coverage:

The Trump campaign plan all along was to deceive, obfuscate, and invagle. He tanked the US Postal Service (and it may have worked in Florida), because he knew Democrats mostly vote by mail. USPS was hamstrung by lack of personnel and 300K legit votes weren't delivered and can no longer count (majority Dem).

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politi...elayed-ballots

The Trump team worked very hard for the past 5 years in Florida to convince Hispanic voters that Joe Biden and the Democrats are straight up communists, and that he will turn the US into Cuba or Venezuela. Their misinformation campaign worked like a charm.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...e-latinos-cuba

The Trump campaign knew there would be a Red mirage (Republican in person voters) followed by a Blue shift. We're seeing that now. Trump wanted to claim victory on election night and encourage his voters to "storm" the polls where votes were still being counted (like they did in Florida in 2000).

Fox News (!) calling Arizona for Biden early, took a lot of that steam out of the Trump sails. He tried to do it anyway... but it lacks the gravitas it would have if he was still rolling with the states he had in 2016.

The media actually did it's job - constantly harping on the fact the votes would take days to count, and that the outstanding ballots in Penn/NC/Georgia were all from heavily Democratic leaning areas (that's the blue shift).

Keep in mind - the reason Penn is so far behind is because the Republican state senate refused to make changes that would have allowed counting before election day. They too wanted to give Trump his red mirage.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/93113...rough-the-week

The hope of taking Texas remains just that - a hope. The progressives are closer than ever before, but still - to the winner goes ALL the spoils.

Arizona flipping is a BIG deal. It'll likely never go back Red, and you can add it to the "Left Coast" that defaults to Democrats. The Hispanics there are not Cubans or Venezuelans, and the demographic shift has been coming for some time.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/u...y-mcsally.html

Finally - Racheal Bitecofer was the pollster who predicted the 2018 blue wave in the midterms. Her theory is that the angrier you base is, the more likely you win. Regardless of that (both bases seem angrier than every before), her new position is that basically it's now Urban vs Rural across the US... and basically you can chalk it up to education.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...361704960.html

And education is the mitigating agent or "the cure"[sic] to populism. When you look at the results last night- the places that surged & held the line, it's due to education. That's why you see the urban/suburban divide, education rates are higher in the population centers (bc that's where jobs are!)

FWIW - Fox News saves the day, it's not as close as it looked but for shenanigans by the GOP, and there is no legal path to SCOTUS currently to contest.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I actually agree with 2/3 of those things. The wine cave Dems screaming about SC nominations while there are millions of people out of jobs and wondering how they're going to pay rent was just a perfect encapsulation of how out of the touch the Demcoratic elite is with average Americans.

As opposed to Moscow Mitch and the Republicans who rammed through the ACB nomination but ended the senate session without even debating the House's COVID relief bill that would have immediately put stimulus money in the hands of out-of-work people. The GOP totally is in-touch with the average American, right fellas?

[Matty81]

200,000 mail in ballots and 40-50,000 early votes to be counted in Georgia, will be tallied by end of day. Margin is down to an 87,000 vote Trump lead. Wow are some of these races ever close. Fascinating day.

Wish the accusations of "cheating" would stop though, long run undermining confidence in the system is bad for everybody, I think including us in Canada.

[dino7c]

Dems are going to get 4M+ more votes this election and the talk is how poorly they are doing...seems the system is flawed.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They lost Florida because Biden was a "socialist". Bernie ect. would have been slaughtered

FL might not be lost if they actually count the missing 27% of mail in ballots that the USPS is witholding.