[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[bob-loblaw]

Trump said in one of his last spreader events in Minnesota that if he loses the state he's never going back there. Lucky Minnesotans!

[Enoch Root]

that is very clever, Minnie!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

While that is good news for Joe Biden (and for America honestly...) I think it’s the first unambiguously bad news for pollsters, some of whom had Biden ahead in Wisconsin by double digits. I expect the margin to be more in Michigan but it doesn’t seem likely to approach the 5-6 point lead Biden was supposed to have there either. Maybe weighting by education wasn’t the answer they needed.

[agulati]

Sureloss breaking all the news

[Acey]

Originally Posted by New Era

it looks like Joe Biden will win 270-268, which means this is going to the courts and Donald Trump will continue as the 45th president of the United States of America.

lol k

[krynski]

Originally Posted by New Era

So good news bad news stuff. I just finished running a model based on available data from NBC, which appears to be consistent across other media sources, and the math looks like this.

Biden will take Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump will hold onto his leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. There doesn't appear to be enough votes out there for Biden to catch up. Of course, these are based on statistical trends, so if a box of ballots that run way outside that trend happen to be found, that could skew the numbers. But having said all of that, it looks like Joe Biden will win 270-268, which means this is going to the courts and Donald Trump will continue as the 45th president of the United States of America.

Pennsylvania is a big one to look out for. There is about a ~500,000 difference between Biden & Trump. There are approx. 1.5 million outstanding ballots.

From early voting numbers, numbers are coming back at 78% Biden (source from ABC news). If that's the case, 3,034,722 for Trump becomes 3,364,722 for Trump, and 2,522,086 for Biden becomes 3,692,086. That could end up 47.7% Trump, 52.3% Biden.

Maybe 78% is too high to shoot for, but it could be that there more than 1.5 million votes to be counted. Anyway, Pennsylvania is still in the game for Biden.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Acey

lol k

You lol, but Al Gore literally had more votes than Bush in Florida in 2000 and they just shrugged their shoulders.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The failure of the democratic party to win convincingly does not fall on voters. It falls on the Democratic party. At some point they need to get in touch with what gets people excited about politics and quit the hollier than thow BS. the Trump is evil campaign is not enough. It rang hallow in 2016 it rang hollow for four years. Who cares how true it is, you need to convince people to vote FOR you, instead of against someone else.

I don't agree. Biden may end up with the most votes in American history.

There is a formidable rural monolith with uneven voting power, that no Democrat is going to win over.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by troutman

I don't agree. Biden may end up with the most votes in American history.

There is a formidable rural monolith with uneven voting power, that no Democrat is going to win over.

And Trump will be 2nd or 3rd all time...

[Acey]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

You lol, but Al Gore literally had more votes than Bush in Florida in 2000 and they just shrugged their shoulders.

The implication of that post seemed to be that because it's only a 2 EV win, that means Trump wins. The 20,000+ Dem wins in WI/MI are different than FL being a couple hundred votes apart.

[united]

Updating this recognizing things are moving fast. Added Nevada and Arizona.

Originally Posted by united

It's late so I may have botched this...but using the New York Times' metrics for votes cast at time of posting and expected final votes, here's what Biden needs:

Georgia (Unchanged)
410,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 63% of them.

Michigan
1,590,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 60% of them.
453,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 47% of them.

North Carolina (Unchanged)
287,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 64% of them.

Pennsylvania
1,870,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 69% of them.
1,500,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 68% of them.

Wisconsin (Biden may have already won)
650,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 60% of them.
102,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 40% of them.

Nevada
194,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 49% of them.

Arizona (Likely already won by Biden)
450,000 votes outstanding. Biden needs 40% of them.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The failure of the democratic party to win convincingly does not fall on voters. It falls on the Democratic party. At some point they need to get in touch with what gets people excited about politics and quit the hollier than thow BS. the Trump is evil campaign is not enough. It rang hallow in 2016 it rang hollow for four years. Who cares how true it is, you need to convince people to vote FOR you, instead of against someone else.

Three Thoughts from Peter12:

1) Voters of all stripes are not nearly as big on racial and sexual identity politics as Democrats/progressives like to think.
2) Going super negative on Trump - and his COVID pandemic response - probably drove a lot of voters underground. The secret Trump voter probably does exist!
3) Huge reservations regarding free trade still exist across the United States.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The failure of the democratic party to win convincingly does not fall on voters. It falls on the Democratic party. At some point they need to get in touch with what gets people excited about politics and quit the hollier than thow BS. the Trump is evil campaign is not enough. It rang hallow in 2016 it rang hollow for four years. Who cares how true it is, you need to convince people to vote FOR you, instead of against someone else.

I think there is truth in this, but there is also truth in the fact that the views that Trump holds and talks about openly, that many people consider to be ugly and offensive, are views that many Americans also hold.

They want their guns
They care first and foremost about the economy
They are scared about how the world is changing around them
And in some cases they are racist and sexist.

Oversimplifying but at some point America has to look in the mirror and acknowledge what they are and what they aren't.

It is a broken country.
And while the democrats should certainly reflect on why they weren't able to effectively spread their message, it isn't on them alone to fix something that seems to be rotten at the core.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by troutman

I don't agree. Biden may end up with the most votes in American history.

There is a formidable rural monolith with uneven voting power, that no Democrat is going to win over.

Again popular vote is meaningless if the USA stays as a country as it is. There will never be more power given to the big cities.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by troutman

I don't agree. Biden may end up with the most votes in American history.

There is a formidable rural monolith with uneven voting power, that no Democrat is going to win over.

He was running against Donald Trump. Imagine what this election would have looked like if the Republicans ran with a human?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by doozwimp

The fact that the dems dont have the senate is a dream scenario for them really. Perfect excuse for a "back to status quo" administration who arent actually interested in pursuing the interests of the progressive wing of the party. Could be disastrous in the future if we want to avoid trumpism 2.0

If McConnell has 52-53 Senators, as appears likely, I think any significant legislation on health care, the environment, immigration or court reform is DOA until 2023 — regardless of whether the Dems had any intent to follow through on the those parts of their campaign platform.

My bigger concern is that McConnell outmaneuvers Biden on economic relief and gets Biden to agree to crippling longterm austerity measures in exchange for short term stimulus. After all, the deficit only seems to matter when Dems are in the White House.

[GGG]

Huge polling miss for Wisconsin.

The 538 average was 8.3% and ended with a sub 1% win.

That makes Pennsylvania more interesting. Michigan by 8% and Nevada by 6% are also in the sub 1% range. It will be interesting to see final overall numbers.

Counting the Nevada mail in ballots remaining as solidly blue also may not be correct as Nevada sends everyone a mail in ballot so it will be less skewed than in other states.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Acey

The implication of that post seemed to be that because it's only a 2 EV win, that means Trump wins. The 20,000+ Dem wins in WI/MI are different than FL being a couple hundred votes apart.

It's different, of course. But it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that this election ends up in court because of how tight it is and because of all the mail in ballots. And if it ends up in the SC, it was just recently stacked with Trump loyalists.

I'd categorize it as highly unlikely, but it's also 2020 and anything can happen.

[EldrickOnIce]

There is zero chance we see, if it does end up that close, faithless electors.

Right???

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GGG

Huge polling miss for Wisconsin.

The 538 average was 8.3% and ended with a sub 1% win.

That makes Pennsylvania more interesting. Michigan by 8% and Nevada by 6% are also in the sub 1% range. It will be interesting to see final overall numbers.

Counting the Nevada mail in ballots remaining as solidly blue also may not be correct as Nevada sends everyone a mail in ballot so it will be less skewed than in other states.

That’s true but the majority of the outstanding votes are apparently in Clark and Washoe, and Biden leads in both.