[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[burn_this_city]

This election showed the power of incumbency for the President, despite being deeply unpopular and with a pandemic raging. Dominating the news cycle constantly and barn storming with Air Force 1 to every medium sized town and city in these states has an effect.

The warning sign things were tightening were the approval polls in the week before the election. Trump bounced from low 40s to mid 40s in the final week.

[CliffFletcher]

Half of the states in the union would secede before they’d accept an amendment to the constitution that did away with the electoral college.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

New Era - you seem to be well-versed in American politics and how voting is run/conducted.

Do you get much of a sense for electoral reform in the U.S.? Are the people/politicians pleased with the current setup or do you see a demand for changing the system?

I think it is like in Canada where there is not much incentive for the established parties to change the system. Any type of major electoral reform would likely make third parties more viable.

[Parallex]

Yeah, looks like Biden will eek out a victory here. If so I'll be interested in seeing what happens to the GOP afterwards... will Trump seek a 2nd act for 2024? Don Jr? will a more conventional Republican win or is Trumpism going to remain the dominant strain in the Republican party?

Some encouraging future signs for Democrats... Arizona flipping, Nevada holding and Texas getting closer (scary demographic changes for the GOP). Some discouraging future signs for democrats... Sequential election weakness in the Rust Belt and losing ground in Miami-Dade (more outreach needed for Working Class white voters and Cuban-Americans.

[djsFlames]

I knew MI would flip.

What a beautiful thing to see that he won't need GA, PA or NC.

But he might want one or two of those to flip his way just to make this less close. Trump is going to go full Karen to the court.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, looks like Biden will eek out a victory here. If so I'll be interested in seeing what happens to the GOP afterwards... will Trump seek a 2nd act for 2024? Don Jr? will a more conventional Republican win or is Trumpism going to remain the dominant strain in the Republican party?

Some encouraging future signs for Democrats... Arizona flipping, Nevada holding and Texas getting closer (scary demographic changes for the GOP). Some discouraging future signs for democrats... Sequential election weakness in the Rust Belt and losing ground in Miami-Dade (more outreach needed for Working Class white voters and Cuban-Americans.

Nothing happens to the GOP. He's been a terrible president and totally botched Covid and it's still close. They can hang this on the pandemic, pretend the next guy will handle it different and continue their behaviour. Even with a Biden win this is a confirmation of the GOP behaviour being effective.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think it is like in Canada where there is not much incentive for the established parties to change the system. Any type of major electoral reform would likely make third parties more viable.

Not only that, just look at the map and whats red and whats blue. A lot of the country isn't going to accept giving more power to Cali and NY.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

If Trump wins then they can say that he was at a 10% probability and it can happen.

That's how probability works.

[Nyah]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324015887628836875

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, looks like Biden will eek out a victory here. If so I'll be interested in seeing what happens to the GOP afterwards... will Trump seek a 2nd act for 2024? Don Jr? will a more conventional Republican win or is Trumpism going to remain the dominant strain in the Republican party?

Some encouraging future signs for Democrats... Arizona flipping, Nevada holding and Texas getting closer (scary demographic changes for the GOP). Some discouraging future signs for democrats... Sequential election weakness in the Rust Belt and losing ground in Miami-Dade (more outreach needed for Working Class white voters and Cuban-Americans.

The Republicans almost won this election - and in fact held the Senate - with Donald effing Trump as their candidate. They are not going to throw in the towel and start navel-gazing from this at all.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, looks like Biden will eek out a victory here. If so I'll be interested in seeing what happens to the GOP afterwards... will Trump seek a 2nd act for 2024? Don Jr? will a more conventional Republican win or is Trumpism going to remain the dominant strain in the Republican party?

Even if/when Biden wins this is a loss for American Democracy. They needed a resounding victory against Trumpism and barely eeked it out. In the polling I've seen most GOP voters support Trump's policies but don't particularly like him on a personal level. I suspect what we'll see going forward from the GOP is a more polished, clean version of Trump that still panders to the worst of people but doesn't sleep with pornstars or assault women. It will probably be an Evangelical version of Trump but with more personality and chutzpah than Pence.

Some encouraging future signs for Democrats...

I don't find it encouraging at all. There really are no red states or blue states but the divide is mostly urban vs. rural and educated vs. uneducated. A lot of GOP voters are single issue voters: abortion, fracking, Cuba, etc. This isn't surprising as America is, at it's heart, a nation that celebrates individualism and sees any form of collectivism as weak. The American culture is on fully display and it's clear to all that it's ####ed up!

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Not only that, just look at the map and whats red and whats blue. A lot of the country isn't going to accept giving more power to Cali and NY.

Yup, could really turn into the coasts vs the interior. Outside of something crazy, I doubt electoral reform is on the table. Trudeau promised it here, balked on it, and then got elected again. A lot of people don't care about it at the end of the day.

[Bonded]

So Senate is pretty much out for the Democrats unless they win the runoff and flip NC or GA, am I understanding that right?

[doozwimp]

The fact that the dems dont have the senate is a dream scenario for them really. Perfect excuse for a "back to status quo" administration who arent actually interested in pursuing the interests of the progressive wing of the party. Could be disastrous in the future if we want to avoid trumpism 2.0

[Enoch Root]

Assuming 86% counted in Arizona...

There are approximately 375k more votes, and the lead is currently 93k votes. So Trump needs to get 63% of the remaining vote in order to flip it back.

Very unlikely, but not impossible. Lots more nail-biting to go.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, looks like Biden will eek out a victory here. If so I'll be interested in seeing what happens to the GOP afterwards... will Trump seek a 2nd act for 2024?

I'd be shocked if Trump doesn't run again. God help us.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yup, could really turn into the coasts vs the interior. Outside of something crazy, I doubt electoral reform is on the table. Trudeau promised it here, balked on it, and then got elected again. A lot of people don't care about it at the end of the day.

I mean really I think people don't have the appetite because a Party (in Canada or USA) is going to change a voting system while they are in power that will certainly benefit themselves the most. That really kills the support I think.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by gargamel

I'd be shocked if Trump doesn't run again. God help us.

If Joe Biden is actually President at 12:01pm on January 20th 2021, Trump will be filling to run again at 12:02pm.

[Fuzz]

Why is Nevada stopping counting until Thursday?

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If Joe Biden is actually President at 12:01pm on January 20th 2021, Trump will be filling to run again at 12:02pm.

So I have to go back to praying for death?