GT: Canadian Federal Election 2019

[GioforPM]

Is Nenshi even a UPC (or UPC friendly)? Then again, people figured Klein was a Liberal before he ran provincially.

I actually think Nenshi has gone as high as he can go.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Only the circlejerking () that a bunch of these organization did when Scheer was elected as leader.


RightNow sold thousands of memberships throughout the leadership campaign, encouraging pro-life voters to fully rank their ballot with all 10 candidates

Well I'm certainly not convinced that was the deciding factor. Thousands of memberships sounds like a lot but it makes a bigger difference where they were sold. A thousand memberships in Alberta is a drop in the bucket, a thousand memberships in Quebec or Atlantic Canada is a huge amount. The voting system needs to be reformed for leaderships, ranked ballots produce nothing but terrible compromise candidates. Scheer, Dion, Redford, Stelmach, etc etc, they all suck.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Is Nenshi even a UPC (or UPC friendly)? Then again, people figured Klein was a Liberal before he ran provincially.

I actually think Nenshi has gone as high as he can go.

Certainly possible he has nowhere to go.

I believe Nenshi would land somewhere center-right on the spectrum. Not positive though.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Is Nenshi even a UPC (or UPC friendly)? Then again, people figured Klein was a Liberal before he ran provincially.

I actually think Nenshi has gone as high as he can go.

He cut operational cost at the city
He held the operations budget to pop growth plus inflation (city inflation not CPI)
He comes from a conservative religious background
He is pro-pipeline and pro-development

He spend a ton on capital projects borrowing from the future to do it
He switched city to green power
He is clearly part of the “liberal elite”

I think he would be suited as a classic red Tory or Blue Liberal. He is left of where the party is now but sits in my opinion where the party I want to vote for is. Right of the liberals and without the socially regressive baggage.

[GioforPM]

Dp

[GioforPM]

Nenshi did speak French once (I don't know how well):

https://www.iheartradio.ca/cjad/news...ench-1.8622007

video:

https://notablelife.com/calgary-mayo...rite-his-will/

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It didn't work well in the past. Are you saying that wing is dying out (maybe literally)?

Letting local candidates run their mouths has gotten Scheer into trouble already. And free votes tend to make leaders look like they are only paying lip service to hot button issues and hiding their true agenda. Note I said "look like".

Both that they are dying out and not a big enough block actually take away seats - especially in a 'strategic voting' situation. If the last two elections have shown anything, it's that hatred for/fear of the other side is stronger than passion for your own side.

You're right about the local candidates, but I think it's more because of Scheer's weakness - IMO a stronger leader (e.g. Bernier) could denounce those views without alienating them - state strongly that these [regressive views] are absolutely not part of the party platform, are not personally shared by the leader (again, only possible with someone like Bernier), but that the party will not exclude people based on deeply held beliefs (of course, there would still have to be a line in the sand, but it would be closer to attending neo-nazi rallies than attending a regressive church).

It's actually not that crazy of a position to defend - the analogy being that we all have family members who hold beliefs we disagree with. It doesn't mean we exile them from the family, it doesn't mean we skip family gatherings to avoid them, and it doesn't mean that we argue with them every single time they say something we think is wrong...we may attempt to engage the topic at times and share with them a different perspective, but we know that we cannot expect them to change overnight.

Essentially I'm saying a soft, Canadian populism would almost certainly have worked. I suspect this is closer to where Bernier was pre-PPC, though it's tough to retain much respect for him since he went all-in on cranking it to 11 (I think he thought he could play a Jordan Peterson/Doug Ford, but he struggled to relinquish his common sense entirely).


This isn't to say there wouldn't have been scary and troubling things about a Bernier-led campaign, but I think it would actually have been far easier for people to stomach.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by kermitology

When will the Conservatives learn to stop with the social conservative bull####? How about coming up with a platform earlier, and something that isn’t based entirely on cutting the living hell out of all social services?

I’m also kind of laughing at this notion that the conservatives would actually do anything for Alberta. They don’t give a #### about us, they take us for granted.

Completely on point.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Both that they are dying out and not a big enough block actually take away seats - especially in a 'strategic voting' situation. If the last two elections have shown anything, it's that hatred for/fear of the other side is stronger than passion for your own side.

You're right about the local candidates, but I think it's more because of Scheer's weakness - IMO a stronger leader (e.g. Bernier) could denounce those views without alienating them - state strongly that these [regressive views] are absolutely not part of the party platform, are not personally shared by the leader (again, only possible with someone like Bernier), but that the party will not exclude people based on deeply held beliefs (of course, there would still have to be a line in the sand, but it would be closer to attending neo-nazi rallies than attending a regressive church).

It's actually not that crazy of a position to defend - the analogy being that we all have family members who hold beliefs we disagree with. It doesn't mean we exile them from the family, it doesn't mean we skip family gatherings to avoid them, and it doesn't mean that we argue with them every single time they say something we think is wrong...we may attempt to engage the topic at times and share with them a different perspective, but we know that we cannot expect them to change overnight.

Essentially I'm saying a soft, Canadian populism would almost certainly have worked. I suspect this is closer to where Bernier was pre-PPC, though it's tough to retain much respect for him since he went all-in on cranking it to 11 (I think he thought he could play a Jordan Peterson/Doug Ford, but he struggled to relinquish his common sense entirely).


This isn't to say there wouldn't have been scary and troubling things about a Bernier-led campaign, but I think it would actually have been far easier for people to stomach.

It didn't help that Scheer's CM turned out to be from Rebel Media. And he got tagged with the Faith Goldy/yellow vest thing. Or fibbing about the UN migration pact. These are self-inflicted wounds. It's true that a stronger leader avoids these mistakes. If they want to. I'm not convinced Scheer wanted to.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Completely on point.

Partially on point.

Would the CPC do much for us? Probably not. But all they had to do was get the god damned pipeline built and they would have done more for us with that one act than the Liberals have in 80 years.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Partially on point.

Would the CPC do much for us? Probably not. But all they had to do was get the god damned pipeline built and they would have done more for us with that one act than the Liberals have in 80 years.

There's an interesting test afoot with this happening right now: a smart tack for the Cons to take right now would be to offer unconditional and constructive support for continued Liberal steps toward pipelines and other energy programs.

There's common ground there, and the Conservatives should be taking it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

There's an interesting test afoot with this happening right now: a smart tack for the Cons to take right now would be to offer unconditional and constructive support for continued Liberal steps toward pipelines and other energy programs.

There's common ground there, and the Conservatives should be taking it.

There's almost no chance the UCP will do anything leading to a Liberal success on the pipeline. At best they will be vaguely supportive but critical at the same time "you're doing it all wrong".

[Oling_Roachinen]

The CPC isn't pro-pipeline though. It's an act. Sure they approved Northern Gateway but all they had to do was declare it in the National Interest and it wouldn't have had to gone through courts and would have been constructed instead of being left to die for years on end. At least that's what I've been told about Trans Mountain.

[Flash Walken]

It will be interesting to see what party disruptions occur when Kenney inevitably takes over the federal leadership.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think it's time for the CPC to move to a full center/right stance. And let the social conservatives restart the Reform party (or whatever they want).

How did that work out for conservatives in Alberta, especially in 2015?

Let's face it, support for economic conservatism isn't as strong nation-wide as some are trying to make it out to be. Last night, 64% of voters voted for a party that is to the left of the Conservatives. This, even with a Liberal leader who had the blackface/SNC scandals hanging over him. Even in 2011, the tories couldn't crack the 40% mark in national support.

If conservatives ever plan to form government in this country, they can't afford any vote splits. The history of the country is filled with failed examples of conservatives trying to rise in popularity by separating themselves from socially conservative bigots - it never works out.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It will be interesting to see what party disruptions occur when Kenney inevitably takes over the federal leadership.

Did you know that a provincial premier has never gone on to become prime minister?

If Kenney has ambitions of being PM, he’s got a strange way of going about it.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Did you know that a provincial premier has never gone on to become prime minister?

If Kenney has ambitions of being PM, he’s got a strange way of going about it.

He's due!

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

How did that work out for conservatives in Alberta, especially in 2015?



Let's face it, support for economic conservatism isn't as strong nation-wide as some are trying to make it out to be.

Ah yes, the 2015 Harper Conservatives. Definitely no socially regressive baggage on that bus.

[GGG]

Why do people believe the left is gaining support?
2000 liberal / alliance total - 66%
2004 liberal conservative total - 66%
2006 Liberal Conservative Total - 66%
2008 Conservative / Liberal total - 66%
2011 Conservative / Liberal 58% - Liberal support went to Layton.
2015 Conservative / Liberal 70%
2019 Conservative / Liberal 67%

What you see is that the conservatives and Liberals have about a 30% floor and then fight over 5-10% of the population while 30-35% vote for others. Of the Liberals decline in support the Conservatives picked up about half and the others picked up about half.

What does this tell you about the electorate? I think it shows you have four distinct camps of right / left / center and Bloc. With the right and Center representing about 30% and the left about 20%. The Bloc is somewhere between 5 and 10. The remaining 15% is fluid between two groups. So conservatives are successful when they can shift 5-10 pts of liberals into the conservative camp. The liberals are successful when they can get a total of 10pts between the two sides. If you look at why Liberals have a minority instead of a majority is they bled of 4 % to the cons and 4% to the left.

The contests have been the same since 2000. Scheer didn’t win because he couldn’t get Ontario red/blue voters to shift. Trudeau didn’t win a majority because he failed to get Maritime,BC,SK, and AB Red / Blue and orange red voters to shift.

The over all politics of the country appear relatively unchanged.

[Flamenspiel]

It’s been understated here, but certainly covered by the pollsters. Doug Ford’s problems really weighed heavily on the Ontario vote. It was the major factor.