GT: Canadian Federal Election 2019

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's all true, but another way to look at it is:

Popular vote:
Liberal: 33.1 (157 seats)
NDP: 15.9 (24 seats)
Green: 6.5 (2 seats)

Tories: 34.4 (121 seats)
PPCs: 1.6 (0 seats)

Bloc: 7.7% (32 seats)

So 55.5% for the left/center left
36% for the right/center right
and 7.7% for the Bloc, whatever they identify as these days - labour left/immigration right/etc.

This is just wrong.

Yes, all the other parties are left of the Conservatives, but that doesn't make them left of center. And to those arguing that the Liberals have shifted a bit left of center recently, even if true (debatable), that doesn't mean that all who voted for them have.

There are lots of people who are right of center that vote for the Liberals (especially with a social conservative like Scheer leading the CPC). So categorizing all LPC votes as center or left/center is simply not accurate.

[Tyler]

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said today he has no plans to resign, and vowed instead to stay at the helm of his party and take another swing at defeating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the next election.

Best news of the day!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is just wrong.

Yes, all the other parties are left of the Conservatives, but that doesn't make them left of center. And to those arguing that the Liberals have shifted a bit left of center recently, even if true (debatable), that doesn't mean that all who voted for them have.

There are lots of people who are right of center that vote for the Liberals (especially with a social conservative like Scheer leading the CPC). So categorizing all LPC votes as center or left/center is simply not accurate.

I'm not categorizing the voters that way. I'm categorizing the parties that way. The point is the parties are positioned where they are and the CPC has to look to where it can gain votes. It's not to the right.

[Scorch]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Best news of the day!

Yeah, if you’re a liberal

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/and...330762?cmp=rss


Ugh.

It's early. The majority of conservative voters want nothing to do with social conservatism, and the CPC is going to hear it from their constituents

[burn_this_city]

I highly recommend when the leadership review comes up everyone who has a stake in this province sign up for party membership and vote for someone who can win. Scheer is a complete dud and needs to be jettisoned along with whoever ran his campaign. The social conservatives will keep losing elections until they are sidelined permanently.

[Looch City]

Yeah it's one day after the election...I wasn't really expecting him to be like "yeah not sure how I feel anymore, don't think I'm an effective leader to win in 4 years, gotta quit, kcya"

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not categorizing the voters that way. I'm categorizing the parties that way. The point is the parties are positioned where they are and the CPC has to look to where it can gain votes. It's not to the right.

No, that is not how the conversation went. Locke said:

Originally Posted by Locke

Remember the days when there were promises of Electoral Reform? We were going to get rid of 'First Past the Post' and the party that got the most votes would win.

Seems like a good thing Justin didnt do that....for Justin anyways.

Its sad that the Conservatives got almost 250,000 more votes but lost.

In effect this Country is being taken somewhere most of us dont want to go by someone we didnt agree to follow. I think theres a term for that....

And you replied with:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That's all true, but another way to look at it is:

Popular vote:
Liberal: 33.1 (157 seats)
NDP: 15.9 (24 seats)
Green: 6.5 (2 seats)

Tories: 34.4 (121 seats)
PPCs: 1.6 (0 seats)

Bloc: 7.7% (32 seats)

So 55.5% for the left/center left
36% for the right/center right
and 7.7% for the Bloc, whatever they identify as these days - labour left/immigration right/etc.

Your argument was that 55% of Canadians voted for left/center left.

That is not true. A large number of LPC voters are right/center, right. Impossible to say what percentage of course, but the NDP has never really been able to expand their base, even when the LPC has been struggling. That would suggest that there aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC.

[Coach]

Pretty crazy to see the BQ get that much of a vote share. Would probably rather have the Greens with that many seats instead.

What a weird election.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, that is not how the conversation went. Locke said:



And you replied with:



Your argument was that 55% of Canadians voted for left/center left.

That is not true. A large number of LPC voters are right/center, right. Impossible to say what percentage of course, but the NDP has never really been able to expand their base, even when the LPC has been struggling. That would suggest that there aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC.

Well, I meant they voted for centre/centre left parties. That's pretty undeniable to me. I think the conversation morphed a bit.

But really, I don't know too many fiscal conservatives/social liberals (which is where the centre-right usually lies) who vote Liberal, at least around here.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The reality is that they wouldn't govern with that kind of appeal anyway because the socially regressive contingent would abandon the party and you'd be back to the 90s with 2 separate, viable 'conservative' parties.

The social regressives fleeing isn't a problem from a vote perspective, but I suspect it is a big problem from a money perspective. I think this fact gets missed a lot - it's a nasty negative feedback loop of needing money to run ads to appeal to your base so they keep giving you money to run more ads...in this case it is totally counter-productive because most of the ads they run do themselves more harm than good.

I think the better calculus would have been to run super lean campaign without any pandering to the regressive base from Scheer. Let local candidate say what they will, and let Scheer try to walk the tightrope (I know this wouldn't work well) by focusing on the Liberal tribalism and over-centralized control of the Trudeau government. Hammer time and again about reforming investigation transparency, and a return to 'free' votes in the house, etc.

Originally Posted by peter12

You know what? I will be the first to say it. Everyone needs to drop the SNC Lavalin thing now. The damage has been done. Trudeau's effectively lost his celebrity status over it - and the many other terrible things this year. Let parliamentary committees sort it out, if they wish.

Disagree, except for the part about parliamentary committees - but they won't bother unless they think the electorate cares. Now is the time to amp up the discussion on this.

[Enoch Root]

I was always of the opinion that the CPC was better off with a unified party, having the social conservatives under their umbrella. Not front and center and in charge, like now, but under the umbrella to avoid vote splitting.

I am no longer sure that is the best plan.

1) any trace of social conservatism in the party causes many progressive conservatives to slide to the LPC.

2) while vote splitting is a concern, the social conservatives are concentrated in a relatively small number of ridings - particularly rural and western. They would only be a threat to win a limited number of seats, and wouldn't pose any significant drain in any of the urban ridings, which are the tightly contested ones anyway.

3) the CPCs can't win seats in eastern Canada, when there is any smell of social conservatism in the party.

4) even if there is vote splitting, the two parties would co-operate in a minority government situation, and against any more left-leaning parties (much like the LPCs and NDP can usually co-operate, probably more so)

So the question is: would the CPCs get more seats in the east than they would lose in the west? Or would it be less than what is lost by vote-splitting? I think more.

I think the CPC has to purge the social conservatives from the power and governance of the party. If they want to stay anyway: great. If they want to leave: knock yourselves out.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's early. The majority of conservative voters want nothing to do with social conservatism, and the CPC is going to hear it from their constituents

Problem is the majority of Conservative supporters don't go to the nomination meetings where these awful candidates and leaders get selected. As much as I like the idea of grassroots involvment in picking candidates clearly the people most motivated to get their agendas pushed are the ones holding the party back. Maybe this crappy campaign and pathetic PM we ended up with will fire up the larger base. I'm going to buy a membership next time that's for sure.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Your argument was that 55% of Canadians voted for left/center left.

That is not true. A large number of LPC voters are right/center, right. Impossible to say what percentage of course, but the NDP has never really been able to expand their base, even when the LPC has been struggling. That would suggest that there aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC.

Which is, of course, not true looking back to 2011. The NDP gathered 30% of the popular vote, directly benefitting from the struggles of the LPC who fell to 18%.

While I agree that you can't just lump the Liberals into the left, when they fail, they lose significant numbers to the NDP. "There aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC" is an incorrect statement.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

The social regressives fleeing isn't a problem from a vote perspective, but I suspect it is a big problem from a money perspective. I think this fact gets missed a lot - it's a nasty negative feedback loop of needing money to run ads to appeal to your base so they keep giving you money to run more ads...in this case it is totally counter-productive because most of the ads they run do themselves more harm than good.

I think the better calculus would have been to run super lean campaign without any pandering to the regressive base from Scheer. Let local candidate say what they will, and let Scheer try to walk the tightrope (I know this wouldn't work well) by focusing on the Liberal tribalism and over-centralized control of the Trudeau government. Hammer time and again about reforming investigation transparency, and a return to 'free' votes in the house, etc.

It didn't work well in the past. Are you saying that wing is dying out (maybe literally)?

Letting local candidates run their mouths has gotten Scheer into trouble already. And free votes tend to make leaders look like they are only paying lip service to hot button issues and hiding their true agenda. Note I said "look like".

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, I meant they voted for centre/centre left parties. That's pretty undeniable to me. I think the conversation morphed a bit.

But really, I don't know too many fiscal conservatives/social liberals (which is where the centre-right usually lies) who vote Liberal, at least around here.

By here, do you mean Alberta? Then sure, because there are plenty of reasons why Albertans won't vote liberal.

But nationally? Just look at Ontario. It is largely center/right. But social conservatism is a non-starter, so LPC is the obvious (and only) choice. That is the problem for the CPC.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

Yeah it's one day after the election...I wasn't really expecting him to be like "yeah not sure how I feel anymore, don't think I'm an effective leader to win in 4 years, gotta quit, kcya"

You're right, he should have done it last night.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Problem is the majority of Conservative supporters don't go to the nomination meetings where these awful candidates and leaders get selected. As much as I like the idea of grassroots involvment in picking candidates clearly the people most motivated to get their agendas pushed are the ones holding the party back. Maybe this crappy campaign and pathetic PM we ended up with will fire up the larger base. I'm going to buy a membership next time that's for sure.

And last time I looked, nomination meetings are run in a very scattered and/or biased manner. Sometimes to the point a newcomer can't win - look at Rob Anders getting nominated so often. This isn't a UPC problem in particular.

[burn_this_city]

Jack Layton was the bridge between the centre left and the NDP, they haven't recovered that vote since.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's early. The majority of conservative voters want nothing to do with social conservatism, and the CPC is going to hear it from their constituents

Will be rare for the Conservatives to do what their vast majority of voters want. Their last leadership convention came down to Bernier vs Scheer - both are socially conservative. Brad Trost and Kelly Leitch were among the longer lasting 'others'.