2016 NHL Draft

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by polak

Someone want to talk me off the ledge re: the disappointing outlook of drafting outside the top 3?

I'm still worried about Tkachuk leveraging his size in junior and thus not being able to translate his game to the same level in the NHL and drafting a defensemen in Chrychun seems like a poor move BPA or not. We really are desperate for impact players in our top 6. I'd rather trade the pick than draft a D man.

Don't know anything about Dubois.

Is Tkachuk at 6'1" and 195 really a guy that is leveraging his size to be successful - think his success has a lot to do with his skill level.

You can never go wrong with top d-men. If he pans out you can always trade a top d for a scoring top 6 FWD (ie. Jones for Johansen).

Dubois is a big, strong, and fast forward that plays with an edge. Actually think he is my favourite outside of the top 3 - team could really use the edge and size he would bring to the top 6.

[Demetric]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really I am happy as long as we draft in the top 6. I see a clear top 3, and then 3 pretty equal guys after that with another dip in the quality of player at 7.

1.Matthews
2.Laine
3. Puljujarvi

4a. Tkachuk
4b. Chrychun
4c. Dubois

Any of those guys and I think they really help the team moving forward.

I think I would add 4d. Nylander. I think we will be fine with who we are able to get in the draft this year

[Poe969]

And hasn't Chychrun been used on the wing as well? I would prefer to get Dubois if possible but getting a guy like Chychrun would be awesome too. I do agree wtih polak about Tkachuk and his playing style may not be as dominant in the NHL. I'm sure the kid has a ton of skill because he's not the biggest guy in the league or anything but I don't think he'll turn into a power forward in the NHL...I don't think he'll be a bust and if the Flames got him, I think he'd do well. I just would prefer if the Flames got someone else.

[PlayfulGenius]

Assuming the Flames pick outside the Top 3...are there any young NHL players (including G) that are possible pickups in exchange for the pick?

Drouin is a prime example of someone available, but I think we'll all agree he's not worth the pick.

I'm thinking more along the lines of a deal similar to the Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen swap...or, a situation where an emerging backup somewhere makes their starter expendable.

[Vulcan]

Unless it's Price you don't give up an early first for a goalie.

[Frequitude]

We're really starting to converge on either
a) Picking 5th, 6th or 7th (61% chance). This is driven by a 68% chance that we finish 5th or 6th last combined with the decent chance of being bumped a spot in the lottery from there.
b) Picking top 3. The chance of this happening is going to stay pretty constant in that 30% range (~9-10% per pick).

Notable change over the weekend is that we are now officially eliminated from finishing 30th.


(Draft pick odds using Enoch Root's standings-pick percentages combined with sportsclubstats.com's final standings probabilities for each potential Flames remaining record as of today)

[PlayfulGenius]

What about Blake Wheeler?

Or Brandon Saad?

Those are the only 2 I've thought of thus far.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by polak

Someone want to talk me off the ledge re: the disappointing outlook of drafting outside the top 3?

I'm still worried about Tkachuk leveraging his size in junior and thus not being able to translate his game to the same level in the NHL and drafting a defensemen in Chrychun seems like a poor move BPA or not. We really are desperate for impact players in our top 6. I'd rather trade the pick than draft a D man.

Don't know anything about Dubois.

In some ways seems a similarly deep top end draft to 2013 - we got Monahan at 6.

Does that help?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Can we just leave polak where he is? If anyone manages to pull him off this one he's just going to wander towards a different ledge.

[Robbob]

I think people should also temper their expectations as I don't think this first rounder makes the team this year (unless we win the lottery).

[saXon]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

We're really starting to converge on either
a) Picking 5th, 6th or 7th (61% chance). This is driven by a 68% chance that we finish 5th or 6th last combined with the decent chance of being bumped a spot in the lottery from there.
b) Picking top 3. The chance of this happening is going to stay pretty constant in that 30% range (~9-10% per pick).

Notable change over the weekend is that we are now officially eliminated from finishing 30th.

(Draft pick odds using Enoch Root's standings-pick percentages combined with sportsclubstats.com's final standings probabilities for each potential Flames remaining record as of today)

Maybe I'm wrong here, but each pick being 9-10% chance doesn't add up to 30% picking top 3 does it? Isn't it still a 9-10% chance with the combination of the 3 chances? As far as I can remember back in math/stats class, chances aren't added to each other for a grand total percentage-wise.

[polak]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Can we just leave polak where he is? If anyone manages to pull him off this one he's just going to wander towards a different ledge.

It's too late. I'm pumped now.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by saXon

Maybe I'm wrong here, but each pick being 9-10% chance doesn't add up to 30% picking top 3 does it? Isn't it still a 9-10% chance with the combination of the 3 chances? As far as I can remember back in math/stats class, chances aren't added to each other for a grand total percentage-wise.

No, this is a distribution of odds that must add up to 100%. In this case, yes you do add them up. If you look at post 1626, the red row at the bottom is a current distribution of odds for where the Flames could pick. The first 3 picks are 9, 9 and 9%. So the chances of top 3 is 27%, and the chances of not top 3 is 73%.

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

We're really starting to converge on either
a) Picking 5th, 6th or 7th (61% chance). This is driven by a 68% chance that we finish 5th or 6th last combined with the decent chance of being bumped a spot in the lottery from there.
b) Picking top 3. The chance of this happening is going to stay pretty constant in that 30% range (~9-10% per pick).

Notable change over the weekend is that we are now officially eliminated from finishing 30th.


(Draft pick odds using Enoch Root's standings-pick percentages combined with sportsclubstats.com's final standings probabilities for each potential Flames remaining record as of today)

Well at least we can all agree that, factually, the Flames will be picking inside of the top ten.

[dammage79]

If the Flames do not win the lotto. I'm hoping Nylander slips to CGY. I'll be pleased with Sergachyev as well. Or McLeod even if some of you don't want him.

[Roof-Daddy]

Flames biggest need that can be addressed via the draft is top six right shot winger with size. Going to be a damn shame if we don't walk away with at least one of the Finns. They're a perfect match.

//totally new information!

[djsFlames]

How does Alex Nylander stack up to his brother? I'd like to hear the comparison from someone in the know.

[Bunk]

Ugh, April 30th seems an eternity away. I'd like to at least get to the point where we're hand wringing about who we'll get or who we should take with certainty about our draft position.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

How does Alex Nylander stack up to his brother? I'd like to hear the comparison from someone in the know.

Not in the know but I've heard he doesn't shy away from going into the tough areas. He's a couple inches taller than his brother so he could be more physical than either his dad or brother. I wouldn't mind it if we took him as he's right shot with skill. Maybe not a perfect fit with the Monahan line but fine for Bennett.

I get the feeling he's going to be a sure NHL player, maybe a star.

[icecube]

I can tell you beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Flames did win the draft lottery this year. I'm from the future.

- John Titor