CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

SebC disappeared for 3 full real life days on the day that he probably got turned (well night before).

Timbo has seemed to go off the deep end, his erratic behaviour is far from his norm.

If we treat this as almost a cliche horror story, a person disappearing for an extended amount of time and ends up being replaced with an alien doppelganger is a common trope. As is a normal person who becomes erratic after being mind controlled or whatever. Perhaps the Turned are subject to posting conditions? Is it still a semi-open game if that isn't mentioned?

Hockeyguy15, ignoring for now Dissentowner's connection claim, how do you feel about Timbo? You did say he was a potential spore target, do you think he turned? And I guess, is there a chance he was latching onto you?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Activestick was on the verge of being lynched and some were ready to jump off or jumping off as he left us with the suspicion he may be the smuggler. Timbo posted the following:



Of course it is a devastating loss to the passengers, we need all the help we can get!

Two posts later HG says this.


These two do not want votes coming off Activiestick. They know they are at least getting rid of a passenger and possibly one of the few that have a power.

Day 2 and we have Oling revealing he got the spore and he passed it to GS. HG posts this.



He knows damn well she has not turned, that is why he wants the agent to waste a night investigating her while we lynch another passenger but Oling catches on.


GS asks why the Agent would not check Oling first. HG replies:


He knows she has not turned though.

Then Timbo posts this:


Here Timbo is trying to set up a possible GS agent check which is a waste and an OLing lynch or vice versa. Either way it would lead to a dead townie and a wasted GA check.

Got to step out for a minute, more to come, not even close to finished...

Ah yes, back to the old "how I was so important to lynching activeStick" argument that you and Mrkajz latched onto earlier.

LOL how would letting the agent investigate Girly be a waste? Is this seriously something you are saying is bad? At that point you have 2 people they should investigate and that's Oling and Girly. So I assume since I would rather have Girly investigated that means I am working to keep Oling safe from the agent?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Here Timbo is trying to set up a possible GS agent check which is a waste and an OLing lynch or vice versa. Either way it would lead to a dead townie and a wasted GA check.

The first 4 nights would be "wasted" GA checks anyways. No turned Night 0, Night 1 or Night 2. Potential turned Night 3, but GA checks before send so couldn't kill.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

SebC disappeared for 3 full real life days on the day that he probably got turned (well night before).

Timbo has seemed to go off the deep end, his erratic behaviour is far from his norm.

If we treat this as almost a cliche horror story, a person disappearing for an extended amount of time and ends up being replaced with an alien doppelganger is a common trope. As is a normal person who becomes erratic after being mind controlled or whatever. Perhaps the Turned are subject to posting conditions? Is it still a semi-open game if that isn't mentioned?

Hockeyguy15, ignoring for now Dissentowner's connection claim, how do you feel about Timbo? You did say he was a potential spore target, do you think he turned? And I guess, is there a chance he was latching onto you?

I do think he is a big target for the spore, until today he hasn't really been at the forefront of much. I think earlier on he was more involved and hunting, but that has dropped off.

As for being turned I'm not sure. I'm 50/50 on that, because I'm not sure he would have been so abrasive recently if he was turned, since I feel like his reaction was pretty much unprovoked.

[Hockeyguy15]

Oling, what are your thoughts on Diss now that you have seen his last couple posts? Do they really ring as town to you? You and I both know from last game it's hard to make arguments against town people, do his posts not seem like he is struggling to make stuff up against me?

[Oling_Roachinen]

I'm stuck on Dissentowner from the "mistake." I don't think it was intentional and I don't think it was a mistake the Host could make. If it was a ploy, he got me. So I believe he is town.

I think he brings up some interesting points, some are a bit of a stretch but that's the case for everyone's arguments right now. I would be cautious that this was Timbo's attempt at latching onto you, the same way we planned on latching onto others last game. It also doesn't gel with my theory that Timbo was turned recently.

If Timbo is host, I think it would absolutely deserve a more thorough look into but I would be reluctant to immediately accuse you "100%" because it could be Host's plan to have you lynched once/if Timbo gets revealed. I'm certainly on board with a Timbo reveal though.

[Hockeyguy15]

Day 6 and all you have keeping him as town is a mistake? Other than going after me do you remember him doing much?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Day 6 and all you have keeping him as town is a mistake? Other than going after me do you remember him doing much?

Nobody has done much though, none of us have actually lynched a host. Dissentowner hasn't done anything for me to suspect he is scum though. At least he's going after the person I think most likely to be scum.

Can you read Timbo's post and say they have been rational lately? He doesn't think Dissentowner is scum, at least not enough to name him on his list, yet insults him...tempting a possible townie to vote for him? Something doesn't add there for me.

If Timbo's scum he could have upwards of 4 buddies. I'm actually beginning to be of the belief that Timbo is just having fun at this point, payback for last game. He knows he's in the clear, he doesn't think Squiggs96 is going to agree with me, probably doesn't expect Puxlut either (after last game and given some of her words towards me this game). I think he's just having fun, he thinks he's won.

[dissentowner]

Lets continue shall we.

HG on post #490.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Since we can't be sure we still have the agent, or if the agent can kill before the spore is passed I'm up for voting Girly and letting the agent investigate Oling. However I doubt everyone has logged in and seen today's activity so I'll hold off voting for now, plus we can't lynch before tomorrow anyway.

Notice how he has the same play as what Oling suggested. Either way the agent gets nothing and a townie gets killed.

Once Maz cleared up the rules HG was on to this.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So the agent kill doesn't prevent the spore from being passed to the designated player.

That settles it for me, I think we should lynch Girly.

He knows GS is not turned so he pushes for the lynch of a passenger plus his side gets the spore back.

Post 500 HG says again he is town and he knows it. He reiterates this again and again throughout the game.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

There are no confirmed townies in my mind other than myself and activeStick. What exactly confirms you and Oling as town? However Oling is more likely town than you.

Timbo:

Originally Posted by Timbo

Where does that leave Oling? To be investigated right? Or not because if he is turned the Captain has no choice but to kill him to get it back.

HG:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Yes investigate Oling to see if he is turned. If he isn't then he is probably town but could also be a host.

Oling:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

For me, if GirlySports was lynched, I know that the Government Agent action would be useless tonight. I would say he might as well use it on me because the spore hasn't gone anywhere but me and GirlySports.

Timbo:

Originally Posted by Timbo

This is assuming you are not one of the trio of scum. If you are the GA gets nothing and cannot communicate this fact without a reveal.

See how they play this. They know both are passengers. So they have to keep the doubt that Oling is a possible host.

More suspicion cast on Oling by Timbo

Originally Posted by Timbo

You proposed this strategy. You might be scum and made this plan.
The spore has no effect on you. You pass it on and get a get out of jail free card.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Kind of convenient how this worked out.

[Hockeyguy15]

Diss are you seriously questioning me saying the agent should check Oling or Girly on day 2? The only 2 people who had been in contact with the spore?

[starseed]

Mega noise to sift through. I think Timbo could actually now put me squarely in the list of people who support the GA2 reveal.

We could use an extra known townie to help us narrow our lists, and cut away a couple of connections that are not there. If we have 5 scum to 7 passengers, then the game could be over before the next day starts... and I think it is reasonable to assume it is 5 scum.

Should we lynch another passenger, then have GA2 successfully kill a turned, then get another bad roll with the spore, it would be 5-5 and would still be game over.

S.O.S.

[dissentowner]

When Oling stated it is possible neither one of them turned HG posted this:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Come on now, she has turned and you know it. I'm not worried for 1 second she will flip town.

We know how that turned out. I think these two are bold and laughing at us. Read what comes next.

Timbo:

Originally Posted by Timbo

So am I the only one suspicious that Oling proposed this strategy (in post #8) and it just so happens that he is the one holding the spore from the start?

HG:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Well he was on the list of people you and I said we would send the spore to, does that mean one of us sent it to him and are the captain?

Timbo:

Originally Posted by Timbo

Agreed but the convenience of the plan makes me suspicious. Host pass to host night 0 is not out of the realm of possibilities IMO. After getting gut punched by him (and you) in the last game I'm seeing the evil Moriarty everywhere.

I bet they had a hell of a laugh about that in their scum thread. They stuck it right under our noses knowing it would be seen as so bold it would not draw suspicion. Surely scum would never be that bold right? That is exactly what they want us to think.
Now there are more posts of Timbo accusing Oling of being a host, not going to quote them all.
The sad part is I bought what HG was selling at this point and I voted for GS too. I mean he was 100 % sure.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I disagree.

I think Girly is just a turned vanilla passenger, I'm 100% sure of it. Had she said right away she was not turned I would agree that we let the agent handle it since we wouldn't know if she was lying or not. Since she is turned she is now working with the hosts and for all intents and purposes she is against us.

She is a threat to us winning, and she is an extra vote that can sway a lynch the way the hosts want. She is the sure thing in my mind, more so than anyone's arguments for a host.

Even though I went along with his scheme HG throughout the game would stick to his guns I am a host.

And of course his faithful lapdog a couple of posts later.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm with this thinking.
Anyone who has been in contact with the spore is suspect to me!

[starseed]

Unvote

Pending review. Squiggs, thanks for that response, but I meant to ask what your succinct responses were to the main clues against you.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Hockeyguy15, your feelings on Timbo's posts today, especially pre-Dissentowner vote?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Hockeyguy15, your feelings on Timbo's posts today, especially pre-Dissentowner vote?

I need to go back and read them since I wasn't around, right now I'm a little preoccupied with Diss' posts against me though.

[starseed]

Peanut, any quick thoughts after skimming the last 100+ posts?

[dissentowner]

On to day 3, the duo has helped get out two passengers and put suspicion on Oling as a host as well as a slew of others. They never go after eachother though. HG15 starts his whole theory on anyone who voted forboth townies is not scum and tries to point toward players that did not vote on both, this gets him and Timbo out of the spotlight and casts suspicion elsewhere and really is a ridiculous notion when you think about it. He leaves himself out because as he explained to peanut a few posts later he knows he is town. Again, trying to reaffirm it in everyone's minds. Post #883 he starts the campaign to lynch me. I am a vet, been to the final of every game, and am not a part of his scum team. Combine that with my early suspicions of him and I need to go. Post #888 he posts a bunch of more crap and votes for me. He says I am just coasting along even though I had at least the same amount if not more posts than him. More smoke and mirrors. Right after his post is this.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Glad I'm not the only player to see dissentowner's posting being off and deflective.

Gee, that is shocking, lol.

[dissentowner]

As HG and I are getting into it and I am getting some momentum on exposing him here comes the faithful sidekick to the rescue. Post 926

Originally Posted by Timbo

Attacking HG at this point of the game does not make any sense.

1: He is our most prolific scum hunter(a lot more so than many of us here)
2: He has not fallen into any scummy patterns.
3: He is playing his typical abrasive self unlike the last game where he just followed along and presented theories but never pressed anything.
4: An active hunter is going to be wrong many times. Odds are not on their side.
5: He identified my prime suspect dissentowner for exactly the same reasons I pointed out.
6: His CP Mafia game posting style makes him very easy to hate

Now lets look at classic scummy behaviour.
1: Posting posts that summarize but come to no conclusion or course of action. (mrKajz44, dissentownter) AKA Flying under the radar. or Pissing around
2: Posting posts that end with "I must go back and read some more."(mrkajz44) Baisically a Scat post)
3: After doing scum action #2 they often return with Scum action #1 (mrkajz44)
4: They make a post hinting on the suspicion of another player and then vanish until it is vote time.
5: Change of posting style (dissentowner) Has played in All CP mafia games and is doing to much #1
6: Get behind accusations that have very thin evidence. (mrkajz44)
7: Rather than defend their actions they choose to attack. (dissentowner)

Exceptions to the rule ... well Oling lol he is a paradox wrapped in an enigma. Now maybe HG15 has taken a page from the Oling book but I cannot find any evidence of it at this point.

So in light of the above
Vote: dissentowner
For now, in light of the past day mrkajz44 is also a very strong candidate.

Once again Timbo is right there always by HG's side doing what he suggests but they will tell you they have no connection. After I post a bunch of evidence against Timbo, HG's reaction is to ignore it and continue to try and put the focus on me. He wants to keep the attention away from his scum buddy.

Do I really need to go on because with the amount these two stick together it is not hard to put it together. Seriously all, go back yourselves and look, I can't do this all night. I have provided a solid pile of evidence these two are in it together. Lets get rid of one (I suggest Timbo) and the other falls into place. We can't miss on this lynch again or we are in trouble.

[dissentowner]

HG will say it is fluff, Timbo will tell you ir is coincidence or he just happens to always agree with HG. It is b.s. They are clearly working together if you take the time to look.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Oling, what are your thoughts on Diss now that you have seen his last couple posts? Do they really ring as town to you? You and I both know from last game it's hard to make arguments against town people, do his posts not seem like he is struggling to make stuff up against me?

Hahaha, really? I use direct quotes of stuff YOU posted and I am making stuff up about you? Hey, keep digging up, you are doing a great job, lol.