CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Party Elephant]

I'll get on board.
vote: timbo

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

It's funny because all game you have made general accusations about me without backing it up, and then the one time you finally indulge me and try and build a case against me you suddenly drop it right away.

Please feel free to explain how my posts and lists make no sense at all.

Because you have a weird agenda of your own that does nothing to help town. You think myself, mrkajz44, and PE are hosts even though I was one of the ones who was on board with lynching either one. Anything you do, Timbo follows. I will have some time later on to show the connection. And I backed up my accusations against you before while you continue to come at your list with nothing.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I'll get on board.
vote: timbo

Did you unvote your last vote before doing so? We need it to count.

[Party Elephant]

Oops
unvote
Vote: timbo

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Because you have a weird agenda of your own that does nothing to help town. You think myself, mrkajz44, and PE are hosts even though I was one of the ones who was on board with lynching either one. Anything you do, Timbo follows. I will have some time later on to show the connection. And I backed up my accusations against you before while you continue to come at your list with nothing.

These posts below are really the only time you have 'backed up' an argument against me. Every other time you say things like "he's steering the game" or "he is putting attention everywhere but on himself".

The previous post from me has some good examples of your arguments against me. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1385

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok, in this post I hope to show how HG has steered the game for the scum. How he has built up taking things where he wants while trying to spread the suspicion around. He starts early.
On post #76 he states this.

We already know ECF was a passenger but we don't know much about Peanut, still he is getting the ball rolling.
Post #101 is this.

Here he advocates the spore/infected is not important. He knows Oling has it and is hoping for a turn. Interestingly he reveals the same thing I have thought on how the scum would play. Is that a brilliant scum play for revealing that strategy or could I be wrong? We will see.
I am also not going to quote them all but in the first 7 pages a lot of posters were struggling with how the spore works and the rules. HG had the answers to those questions, he knew exactly how the spore worked. Could be nothing, maybe he just grasped it better than the rest of us. Could be something though.
At post 173 there had been some discussion that all the talk was just noise. His response was:


He does not want a quiet thread, he wants lots of accusations being thrown around, that benefits the scum. The more confusion the better. Then he picks two more players and tries to get some discussion going there, add to the noise and confusion.

On post 186 there is this.


Activestick is lying low which HG knows will draw suspicions as the game goes on. Better to try for a stronger player. Interesting that HG is convinced now that mrkjz is a host but here he seems to agree with mrkjz's reasoning on Activestick.

Post #231 confirms what I have seen, he is playing this game more aggressively trying to steer things his way. He is responding to a post to a post by Oling saying that maybe the scum would pass the spore to a weaker player.



Here Lego and HG do a couple of posts at each other early so they look at ends with each other but it is all a show to me.



More to come...just getting started

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Post #293 he changes his vote. Nothing doing on squiggs, that ball didn't roll so now he will help get things going on Activestick, at least it is a town member going down and we all have to be gone for the scum to win.
At #309 and a few posts are exchanged between squiggs and HG.



Squiggs is right imo. The town destroyed the town more than anything last game with suspicions and those damn Eternals threads. HG wants as many theories on as many posters as possible, that way he can keep the confusion going and steer the ship.
#331 he states he will give Lego and Peanut a free pass. Peanut he has a reason for, she is a newbie, Lego is why again?

Will be interesting to see how much heat he turns up on Lego on the next day.

So Day 2, Activestick is dead, Oling had the spore, he sent it to GS.
post #446 he starts at GS which does make sense, she has the spore.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So I could keep going but what is the point because my goal was to research HG's posts and prove he was scum and steering the town...but I can't. It doesn't add up now, once I went over all of his posts I can see my tunnel vision and most of his posts did have reasoning behind him. I can spin it to make him look scummy but it honestly still doesn't add up. I think I was mistaken, HG is a passenger. You would not believe how hard it is for me to write that though. The evidence to meet however after thouroughly going over it is I am leaning town now. I hate this game sometimes....

[mrkajz44]

I've been leery of Timbo for a while, but there never seemed to be much support for it. My reasoning was mostly around the voting when I almost got the rope a few days again, but it stemmed more of HG's "driving" and Timbo's "following".

Now that HG has gone quiet (work commitments, and that's fine), I find myself a little less focused on Timbo. Maybe that's because he doesn't have as much guidance from his buddy HG? His posts do seem to be less "thought out" and a bit more reactionary lately. That might be a by-product of less leadership of HG in the scum thread.

I guess what I am saying I'm suspicious of Timbo because of HG, so I don't feel great voting against Timbo when I'm just voting for a connection.

[Hockeyguy15]

By the way, if you can't tell I am done my busy time at work. So you can all stop trying to paint me with an inactive turned brush.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I've been leery of Timbo for a while, but there never seemed to be much support for it. My reasoning was mostly around the voting when I almost got the rope a few days again, but it stemmed more of HG's "driving" and Timbo's "following".

Now that HG has gone quiet (work commitments, and that's fine), I find myself a little less focused on Timbo. Maybe that's because he doesn't have as much guidance from his buddy HG? His posts do seem to be less "thought out" and a bit more reactionary lately. That might be a by-product of less leadership of HG in the scum thread.

I guess what I am saying I'm suspicious of Timbo because of HG, so I don't feel great voting against Timbo when I'm just voting for a connection.

It seems like you and Diss thought this would be the perfect time to go on the attack against me since I was too busy to participate the way I normally do. Sorry to burst your bubble on that one now that I am done my deadlines.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

These posts below are really the only time you have 'backed up' an argument against me. Every other time you say things like "he's steering the game" or "he is putting attention everywhere but on himself".

The previous post from me has some good examples of your arguments against me. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1385

Great, but I have been wrong before. I should have kept going obviously.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

It seems like you and Diss thought this would be the perfect time to go on the attack against me since I was too busy to participate the way I normally do. Sorry to burst your bubble on that one now that I am done my deadlines.

Oh yes, except all throughout this game you have had reasons why you were inactive suddenly.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Great, but I have been wrong before. I should have kept going obviously.

We have time now, please continue.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Oh yes, except all throughout this game you have had reasons why you were inactive suddenly.

Wait, haven't you said multiple times how you were busy and would disappear? i think you have done it more than me, so it seems weird you would use this as an argument against me.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

We have time now, please continue.

Oh I am. It will take some time but I am.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Oling Diss is a big boy I'm sure he can fight his own battles. But seeing the results of your play I can't fault you for sucking up to garner support.

I've been calling him town for quite some time now. He's voting for you. I don't need to rally his support. I'm questioning your motives because I still want to win this game and I don't want to lose because of some townie going berserk.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Rally your minions and lynch me Oling because that's the only way you can stop me from posting and pointing out your scummy or bad play.

Doesn't this concern you? Apparently, you don't think Dissentowner is scum. If I'm host, I got like 3 or 4 votes in the bag. Yet you're going to insult a townie and force the vote on you?

This is not a town move. This is a scum move, purposely making yourself such a target that people can't believe you would do it. I should know, that's my shtick if anything. Preemptively accusing anyone of jumping on as my "minions" to scare town away.

I actually think Squiggs96 is my best bet here. Squiggs96, read the posts, if you're town, Timbo is banking on you not being able to side with me on this vote. When I was done going after you, more or less, is when he decided to jump in and defend you/accuse me. There was ample time for him to post actual defense of you. Instead he posts "if you reveal town, I'll go after Oling" which is really nothing talk. He didn't say you shouldn't be lynched, he wasn't putting his neck on the line. When things got, let's say, cordial between us is when he tried to add fuel to the fire:

Originally Posted by Timbo

Squiggs thanks for that post I think you have neglected his last transgression.
Asking the Goverment Agent to reveal.

Now I'm not affiliated with you but if we hold Olings transgressions against yours
Oling does not come out on top IMO.

I wanted to make a post stating this and I wanted to call it the CP Oling transgressions thread.

This is the reason I have not voted for you.

In any case, the good Canadian kid mrkajz44 did not receive the spore last night. I don't believe he is host. I might have received the spore last night. At least my reveal has the added bonus of potentially getting rid of the spore for a night, so might as well change to me if you are convinced I'm host like Timbo is.

[GGG]

Why today Timbo. If anything sebs death lends credence to oling being town.

Where was this yesterday

[dissentowner]

Ok, here we go.
Post 102 HG posts the following:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So I went back and looked at the thread from start to finish and here are some observations.

Bizaro and Oling start talking game theories right away, don't even have a throw away post. Throughout the thread they also talk directly to each other, so I highly doubt they are both hosts as it could connect them down the road.

Diss asked a few questions (3 I believe) in the thread, this may be something to watch as asking questions is a tool to steer talk away from topics the hosts don't want being talked about.

After Mazrim posts the explanation the only people who posted who didn't thank it were Lego, Timbo, Squiggs and the Elephant. This one is probably nothing but I thought I would note it anyway.

GGG dives right into the game, similar to Bizaro and Oling.

Elephant really only had throw away posts, could be they are just new but they could be trying to fly under the radar.

Timbo had a couple throw away posts, a little bit of game talk but I would expect more from him.

Squiggs is "here" but not here, maybe I am just bitter he was golfing.

Right now I am leaning to the safe play, and trying to aim for the hosts who are trying to coast along. I am weary so far of Diss, Timbo, Lego, and Elephant. Obviously I have nothing concrete, just mostly gut feeling from reading the flow of the thread.

Here he chooses what I believe is 3 town and 1 scum. He has absolutely zero reasoning for these choices and does not even really mention anything about Lego yet he is on his list. If Timbo gets lynched right away he can say he was on his suspicion list to cover his ass there.

Post #126 is Timbo saying this:

Originally Posted by Timbo

At this point in the game a lynch seems to always be a crapshoot. At this point I have more evidence leading me to who are passengers.
Dissentowner has been quite meek which makes me slightly suspicious.
GGG comes out very quickly pointing and accusing. Maybe too early IMO
Hockeyguy does as well however he is back to his old self gaming the game again heheh, so I feel fairly confident at this point that he is a true blue passenger.
Oling I don't know if its his name or his avatar that makes me leery of his intentions.
With that being said I think he's also a passenger.
Devo22 has not done much IMO
Peanut might be a rotten nut but it's a gut feeling.
Puxlut I dunno
ECF I dunno
Bizzaro to early for me to tell

Right now I have suspicions on Dissentowner, GGG, Peanut.

So between HG and Timbo that have put early suspicions on the newbies, PE and Peanut. Also interesting that he is suspicious of GGG for being aggressive but he says HG15 is a "true blue passenger" for the exact same reason.

Post #198 and Timbo votes for me. Funny how it was him that started the voting on me between the two of them and HG who took over afterward.

I will point this one out again even though I pointed it out before because it is a telling post imo and shows Timbo fishing for info early to see how the passengers will answer.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm hoping the timing of night 0 might have been different.
But if you are correct then we could have 4 players on the same page assuming that the capt could effectively communicate strategy in the 30 words.

Interesting(open) question if you were the Capt and had your choice of who to infect first.
Who would you choose?
A newb or a known strong player?

Then the next page HG15 posts this in response to that post.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

This comment makes me think Timbo is a passenger. I've been thinking about it and I can't come up with a reason a host would ask this question.

Really? The real question should have been why would a passenger ask this? What can we possibly benefit from discussing it? I think Timbo asked that question on his own and HG was not happy about it so he is trying to do damage control here.

bizaro kind of picks up on it and posts this in response.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The obvious reason a host would ask is to try and beat the smuggler at game theory. If everyone thinks the host will pick a strong player, the smuggler will hide a strong player, which reduces the value to the host of the spore. However, if the host knows that, they can then pick a weak/inactive player, which would help their numbers.

I'm not saying Timbo's host, (he could just as easily be the smuggler looking for help, or a passenger trying to generate conversation/ideas) but I wouldn't exclude him as host based on that comment.

HG replies with this:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

There was no talk about who would you give the spore to before that, so it would be a bad play by the hosts to start drumming up that conversation and get people thinking about it.

Go back and have a look at the start, whenever there was talk about the spore not only was HG very knowledgable about how the thing worked when some of us were confused but anytime it was brought up he was quick to tell us not to think about the spore and that it didn't matter.

More to come...

[dissentowner]

Post #271 HG says we should all be more active. He has already complained when someone suggested there was a lot of useless noise saying the more noise the better. He wants the accusations to fly because it creates confusion. Post #279 Timbo starts of his post by saying HG15 is right on that. He once again muses on who the Captain would give the spore to. Once again they are smart, they put 4 at the top of the list and include one of their own to cover their asses just in case.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Hockeyguy is right that we need to be more active. Inactivity benefits scum.
So I am sharing my theory that the Captain would choose to infect a known strong player. My list in order of strength(subjective) my and some of my musings
My Top 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hockeyguy15 -Winner of last game strong player posts a lot. Meta game master

Oling_Roachinen Winner of last game posts a lot as well as strong on the attack It would be wise to have him on your side rather than an adversary.

dissentowner Also a proven strong player and usually is one of the last ones standing

GGG Often goes on the attack and has the ability to get a following. A pitbull

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The remaining

East Coast Flame Past mafia scum experience

Lego Man Has experience in a few mafia games and yet seems strangely posting low

activeStick Wondering about this player I need a bigger body of work to formulate a more informed opinion

squiggs96 Did not like getting lynched last game and has something to prove.

GirlySports Past mafia scum experience good counterpuncher I feel she often tries to change the thread direction

bizaro86 Im having a tough time reading him

mrkajz44 I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him (just a gut feeling) I suspect him as Captain but I do not have anything but a feeling to back up my claim

Timbo often makes posts that get himself killed

devo22 I don't really have much to go on

Puxlut plays the confused card

SebC I dunno

Party Elephant Newb Possibly drew the scum card

Peanut Newb really not contributing much hiding or just overwhelmed?

So if I were the Captain this would be the order of players I would try to infect first.
I am making a big assumption that the Captain did not go with the ennie meanie minnie mow method.
For now it is all I have to work with and it is quite possible that one of those in my top 4 were given the spore but not infected. I looked for sublet changes in playing style and I felt and I still feel dissentowner is playing differently.

Post #293 is HG15 voting for Activestick to turn up the heat on him. Post #295 is Timbo doing the same.

All throughout this time SebC had been playing a weird style that was putting some off and creating some confusion. We now know since then that at this point he was a passenger.
Post #337 HG posts this.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I just don't think Seb is a host because I can't see his strategy sitting well with 2 other hosts. He doesn't say anything, but by acting this way he brings a lot of attention his way. It's one of the most bizarre ways to play hands down.

HG knows that SebC is a passenger because he is a host. He also knows that SebC is not helping the town at all. This post set SebC up to be a great candidate to pass the spore to later.

More still...

[dissentowner]

Activestick was on the verge of being lynched and some were ready to jump off or jumping off as he left us with the suspicion he may be the smuggler. Timbo posted the following:

Originally Posted by Timbo

If activefish as Qling called activeStick lol, is the smuggler and we jump off of lynching him what do we gain?
If he can only hide a player once does anyone read that he could only hide himself once as well?
The hiding of a player is a real crap shoot for the smuggler. He or she have to be very lucky early in the game.
If the smuggler can hide himself multiple times it would come in very handy later in the game when he could be a difference maker.

But if we accidentally lynch the smuggler is it really a devastating loss?

Of course it is a devastating loss to the passengers, we need all the help we can get!

Two posts later HG says this.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Timbo I read it that he can only hide himself once as well. I think unlimited hides would be overpowered.

These two do not want votes coming off Activiestick. They know they are at least getting rid of a passenger and possibly one of the few that have a power.

Day 2 and we have Oling revealing he got the spore and he passed it to GS. HG posts this.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So Girly, I assume you didn't turn?

I guess the questions are do we assume Oling is being truthful? If we do think he is being truthful, do we lynch Girly or let the agent deal with her?

I think Oling is telling the truth, and I think we should let the agent investigate her at night. If she has turned then the agent kills her and the hosts get the spore back. If she hasn't turned then the agent doesn't kill her and we find out who she give the spore to the next day.

He knows damn well she has not turned, that is why he wants the agent to waste a night investigating her while we lynch another passenger but Oling catches on.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

No, if she has turned she sends spore to someone, and then the agent kills her. I'm pretty sure that's the way it works.

So a lynch would get rid of the spore tonight, an agent check wouldn't.

GS asks why the Agent would not check Oling first. HG replies:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Because you've clearly turned, so we know that you will be dead after you're investigated. After that if we have nothing else to go on they can look at Oling.

He knows she has not turned though.

Then Timbo posts this:

Originally Posted by Timbo

If Oling was turned and so was Girly they might have had time to converse in the turned tread.

Confusion is a tool for scum and it seems we might have two players working it.
It gives our GA a 50/50 choice Oling always plays convincing which scares the beejeebus out of me.

Here Timbo is trying to set up a possible GS agent check which is a waste and an OLing lynch or vice versa. Either way it would lead to a dead townie and a wasted GA check.

Got to step out for a minute, more to come, not even close to finished...

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok, here we go.
Post 102 HG posts the following:


Here he chooses what I believe is 3 town and 1 scum. He has absolutely zero reasoning for these choices and does not even really mention anything about Lego yet he is on his list. If Timbo gets lynched right away he can say he was on his suspicion list to cover his ass there.

Post #126 is Timbo saying this:


So between HG and Timbo that have put early suspicions on the newbies, PE and Peanut. Also interesting that he is suspicious of GGG for being aggressive but he says HG15 is a "true blue passenger" for the exact same reason.

Post #198 and Timbo votes for me. Funny how it was him that started the voting on me between the two of them and HG who took over afterward.

I will point this one out again even though I pointed it out before because it is a telling post imo and shows Timbo fishing for info early to see how the passengers will answer.


Then the next page HG15 posts this in response to that post.



Really? The real question should have been why would a passenger ask this? What can we possibly benefit from discussing it? I think Timbo asked that question on his own and HG was not happy about it so he is trying to do damage control here.

bizaro kind of picks up on it and posts this in response.



HG replies with this:


Go back and have a look at the start, whenever there was talk about the spore not only was HG very knowledgable about how the thing worked when some of us were confused but anytime it was brought up he was quick to tell us not to think about the spore and that it didn't matter.

More to come...

Post 102, you say I gave no reasoning but the reasoning was being weary of the people coasting along, Lego didn't get an "analysis" because he had 1 post at that point.

Then you go on about what benefit can come from talking about who was passed the spore, and yet you haven't called out the people who have recently been talking about it. On day 1 why wouldn't it be bad to talk about when there is little to go on? Seems like you are being selective of who you call out on things, which is what you like to accuse me of doing.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Post #271 HG says we should all be more active. He has already complained when someone suggested there was a lot of useless noise saying the more noise the better. He wants the accusations to fly because it creates confusion. Post #279 Timbo starts of his post by saying HG15 is right on that. He once again muses on who the Captain would give the spore to. Once again they are smart, they put 4 at the top of the list and include one of their own to cover their asses just in case.


Post #293 is HG15 voting for Activestick to turn up the heat on him. Post #295 is Timbo doing the same.

All throughout this time SebC had been playing a weird style that was putting some off and creating some confusion. We now know since then that at this point he was a passenger.
Post #337 HG posts this.


HG knows that SebC is a passenger because he is a host. He also knows that SebC is not helping the town at all. This post set SebC up to be a great candidate to pass the spore to later.

More still...

There is really not much to defend here. Post 271 is pretty clear on why I think not being active is bad for the town and I stand by it, the hosts have an easy game when we don't post.

The rest of this "argument" against me is all fluff.