CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Oling, all this pursumes a night 3 turn correct?

Yes, I would say so. SebC being turned on Night 4 would be a way to incriminate Squiggs96.

We can only guarantee that SebC was turned on Night 3 if someone else comes and says they received the spore yesterday and passed it on last night and we believe that person.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GGG

Here's the post.

So the question is can you add like 10 names in one post as options of spore targets.

I'd say that would like violate the rule too though. The rules say even via slight hinting is not allowed. So if you say "send the spore to any of the following: ..." and list everyone but three people, that's much more than slight hinting in my opinion.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Wrong. You go back and see who the dead trusted and who they implicated. I'm looking at how easily the votes came off the neutrals and mrk and how they ended up on ECF.

My guess is Oling got the spore again. Whether he's infected or not remains to be seen.

I'm golfing now but will expand later tonight on all my thoughts.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Assumptions:

• Oling is telling the truth about receiving the spore
• Oling is telling the truth about passing the spore to Girly
• The Government Agent searched Oling at one point
• Girly held the spore when she was lynched
• Puxlut is the Genetic Anomaly

Here's my thinking on why I'd guess that Oling received the spore:


Based on the above assumptions the captain passed the spore to someone last night. Oling was not turned prior to Day 4. Since many people see Oling and Puxlut as town, they are going to get some more weight on their posts. If I'm the host, there is no chance I waste a day by sending the spore to Pux. I would want to have a chance to turn someone. Since Oling has already been targeted, why not try it again? He's a guy you'd want on your side, whether you are the hosts or not. Since he is getting a lot of town cred., if I was a host I'd try and sneak this one by the town. I wanted to put the theory out there before it had a chance to be hidden.

A couple of posts pointing to Oling as turned rather than SebC, then has that post where he starts off with "Now that we know mrkaj was town" after the vote was shifted from mrkaj to lynch ECF.

Was that an honest mistake, a remnant from the post he started writing while it was mrkaj getting lynched? If squiggs flips host, I will probably put my mrkaj as host theory to bed. Squiggs pushed for a mrkaj lynch iirc.

Vote: squiggs96

[mrkajz44]

Oling, so the motivation of Squiggs actions were to avoid the GA from checking Seb then? Or are you also implying he might have been trying to hint to Seb that he was a host? Or maybe both?

How does that fit into Seb's vote against Squiggs? I guess at that point it was a bit of a throw-away vote with Starseed having so many votes already.

I'd like to go back and read that exchange again (it was a bit painful the first time!), but I'd like the full context of what you are suggesting.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Spore:
Night 0 - Oling_Roachinen
Night 1 - GirlySports
Night 2 - No one
Night 3 - SebC/Someone
Night 4 - Someone/SebC
Night 5 - Not SebC

SebC had to be turned Night 3 or Night 4 right?

So "Someone" still exists. If SebC was turned on Night 3, then Someone got it on Night 4 and sent it last night, if passenger they will reveal, if not they probably wont. If this is the case, Squiggs96 leaving out SebC becomes a whole lot more suspicious.

If SebC was turned on Night 4, then Someone was Turned on Night 3 and we still got a Turned for sure. If this was the case, SebC was probably sent the Spore to make Squiggs96 look suspicious.

So, I think I'm down to voting for Squiggs96 if someone reveals having had the spore yesterday and revealing who they sent it to. If not, then it's a toss-up for me.

My guess is you are right that Seb was turned on night 4 to put heat on me. I expected it was a possibility, so I'm not surprised at the start of Day 6. Since Seb was killed on night 5, there are four possibilities.

1. He was turned on night 3, but the Agent investigated Oling on night 4 at my urging. Seb sent the spore to someone on night 4 and that person is also turned.

2. Seb was turned on night 4. The Agent investigated him on night 5 and killed him.

3. Seb was turned on either night 3 or 4. Devo held the spore once he was lynched. The Captain wanted the spore back so he/she could pass it on Night 5, so he killed Seb in order to get it back.

4. Devo did not have the spore, but the captain wanted the spore anyways and killed Seb to regain control.

My guess is possibility #2, that Seb was turned on night 4. His posting changed slightly from Day 4 to Day 5. In Day 4 he was ready to watch the action and denied having the spore. In Day 5 he went on the offensive about me. He also targeted me:

Originally Posted by SebC

I don't understand why everyone's so eager to vote early. I have a vote that I'd really like to cast, but I think voting late holds more value so I am witholding it.

Originally Posted by SebC

vote: squiggs96

I'd rather not waste an investigation.

And this one, that the rest of the context is needed, but is not coming up with a simple quote: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1837

My guess is that I was onto something, and Seb and the hosts want me lynched.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Oling, so the motivation of Squiggs actions were to avoid the GA from checking Seb then? Or are you also implying he might have been trying to hint to Seb that he was a host? Or maybe both?

I think his motivation was to avoid SebC from being investigated. He did it in such a way that SebC should have picked up that he was trying to protect him. However, it was also just too obvious because SebC was pretty much confirmed town and Squiggs96 didn't mention him. Either a huge town mistake, or a pretty ballsy Host plan.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

How does that fit into Seb's vote against Squiggs? I guess at that point it was a bit of a throw-away vote with Starseed having so many votes already.

I had mentioned a couple times that I thought SebC should be checked (mainly because I thought Squiggs96 protecting him was weird). Maybe he thought him voting for squiggs96 would be a good way to distance himself from Squiggs96 and hopefully not get investigated that night (you can even see he mentioned that he didn't want to "waste" an investigation). If he was investigated even tonight instead of last night, it would be hard to say when he was actually turned for sure, the longer he doesn't get investigated the less of a connection he has with Squiggs96.

Originally Posted by SebC

vote: squiggs96

I'd rather not waste an investigation.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I'd like to go back and read that exchange again (it was a bit painful the first time!), but I'd like the full context of what you are suggesting.

It was painful, but it was intentionally so. I wanted Squiggs96's post to be as clear as possible but he was being pretty vague on why he didn't include SebC originally. And then as he kept getting pressured he starts saying I was twisting his words or something and getting stuck on semantics when really he had no explanation as to why SebC wasn't an option for the spore, if the host did send it to a "confirmed townie."

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

1. He was turned on night 3, but the Agent investigated Oling on night 4 at my urging. Seb sent the spore to someone on night 4 and that person is also turned.

Why are you assuming someone being sent the spore on night 4 would be turned?

Why couldn't it have been Hockeyguy15, Peanut, Party Elephant etc. about to come on and tell us who they sent the spore to?....Looks like you know something we don't.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

Because squiggs was trying to pull attention away from SebC by leaving him out of his townie list.

I am sorry for the devo vote, but at the same time, I think he was not taking strong stances and actively scum hunting. His game seemed a lot like someone trying to stay in the background. However, this will not keep me from voting for anyone else who is not actively participating.

I think that the Squiggs/peanut jump on Oling was used in advance of the devo town flip to show early that they were not on board the devo lynch. Why would devo not have been a good candidate? And out of all of the posters, I think Oling would be the most likely to at least not be host, if not town. Why would a host make that Day one claim?

I think squiggs is going to be my target today, pending a review of vote history etc.

It wouldn't be a mafia game without Oling and starseed targeting me. Starseed, if you are town, remember what happened last game. It will be the exact same thing here. Exactly the same. This time I won't forgive. It was a bad play last time, and it's a worse play this time.

I voted for Party on Day 5 because I thought he was most likely to be a host. I did mess around for a bit to have some fun, but I put my vote back to where it was originally. I didn't think devo was a host. It's that simple. I've had my doubts about Oling the entire game, but some of that is left over from last game. I think Peanut and I were just annoyed with Oling being Oling. Oling was the one who wanted to continue to pester me about the Seb stuff. I had repeatedly talked about it, so I didn't think I needed to rehash it. The same thing happened last game. In this game it's funny that Oling gets all pissy when I didn't feel the need to talk about Seb, but when I wanted to talk about the spore he became all defensive and says that me talking about the spore puts him in a bad position and I need to stop talking about it. When he wants something it's okay, but when I want something it's not.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Oling was the one who wanted to continue to pester me about the Seb stuff. I had repeatedly talked about it, so I didn't think I needed to rehash it.

The SebC thing was either a huge mistake given your reasoning or a scum play. If you just said the Government Agent should check Oling because they gave it to him last time, I couldn't really argue that. My only defense would be that I wasn't turned. You added that it was because I was mostly confirmed town. So alarm bells start ringing when you don't include SebC.

You said that I was the only option. That was factually wrong given your reasoning. SebC was another option, the better option, and now quite possibly the right choice.

The same way you are factually wrong about saying whoever got the spore on night 4 is turned if SebC sent them it. The only way that you could know that is if you had a big list of turned players somewhere...Oh wait, you do.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Because Squiggs96 didn't want SebC to be checked. Read Squiggs96 post now knowing that SebC was turned and it adds up. Maybe even wanted to be obvious enough that SebC would find out. You can re-read my posts on the subject, and I would hope many do now that it was confirmed SebC was turned, but all of Squiggs96 logic didn't add up.




Other people made mention of it as well. Like I've been saying, it wasn't a small mistake

Squiggs96: "Host probably sent the spore to someone most people thought were town, Puxlut can't be turned so Oling is the only option"
Oling: "What about SebC?"

Repeat for 2 days.

Yay for confirmation bias! Of course it makes sense if you read it the way you want. You keep calling it a mistake. You keep bringing it up. If you are town, you are going to look stupid, and you've been incredibly whiny about this whole minute issue that you've created. You're being a giant baby about something because I thought you had the possibility of being turned. If you are a host, then you're just doing your job, and it's to be expected. It wasn't that I didn't want Seb investigated.

It was that I wanted you investigated for reasons I've typed out many, many times. I thought you were most likely to receive the spore on night 3. You still might have. You may even have given it to Seb, who also turned, and now are trying to make me out to be a host. This is actually a decent possibility. You fought hard enough on Day 4 to not be investigated and then passed it to Seb on Night 4, all the while knowing you could set me up. Anyone else think this is a possibility?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Look, we had all agreed that SebC was almost certainly confirmed town by Mazrim's post. Now look at who Squiggs96 is leaving off when he tried in getting the Government Agent to check me.

A Turned SebC would be reading that and should be picking up the hints because they were so obvious.

Yay for more confirmation bias!

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

This time I won't forgive.
.

What the heck does this mean? It's just a game. If you do get lynched it's not personal.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Why are you assuming someone being sent the spore on night 4 would be turned?

Why couldn't it have been Hockeyguy15, Peanut, Party Elephant etc. about to come on and tell us who they sent the spore to?....Looks like you know something we don't.

Hahaha. You really don't stop with this rhetoric. It's amusing.

In this scenario (one of four possibilities), I assume that person is turned because no one has said they've received the spore and sent it somewhere. A townie would absolutely say they sent it out on night 5, now that it's day 6. Maybe that person hasn't posted yet, but it's one of 4 possibilities I felt could happen.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You fought hard enough on Day 4 to not be investigated

Because someone kept saying I should be investigated...

Exactly why I didn't want to talk about the spore, if I defend myself I get investigated, if I don't I would also get investigated. We didn't have information, Puxlut could have had the spore for all we knew. You were the only one trying to dictate where the Government Agent should check, and unsurprisingly the next day we found out there was a turned.

With SebC, it was in the town's best interest to know why you didn't include him on the "mostly" confirmed town list that had me and Puxlut. Now that he's been found turned it looks highly suspicious. And you're right, it could be a way to incriminate you. But nobody but yourself left him off that list Squiggs96.

Now you're still bringing up the possibility of me being turned. Hoping that the Government Agent reveals to confirms what everyone already knows? I was investigated on Night 4.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

My guess is you are right that Seb was turned on night 4 to put heat on me. I expected it was a possibility, so I'm not surprised at the start of Day 6. Since Seb was killed on night 5, there are four possibilities.

1. He was turned on night 3, but the Agent investigated Oling on night 4 at my urging. Seb sent the spore to someone on night 4 and that person is also turned.

2. Seb was turned on night 4. The Agent investigated him on night 5 and killed him.

3. Seb was turned on either night 3 or 4. Devo held the spore once he was lynched. The Captain wanted the spore back so he/she could pass it on Night 5, so he killed Seb in order to get it back.

4. Devo did not have the spore, but the captain wanted the spore anyways and killed Seb to regain control.

My guess is possibility #2, that Seb was turned on night 4. His posting changed slightly from Day 4 to Day 5. In Day 4 he was ready to watch the action and denied having the spore. In Day 5 he went on the offensive about me. He also targeted me:






And this one, that the rest of the context is needed, but is not coming up with a simple quote: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1837

My guess is that I was onto something, and Seb and the hosts want me lynched.

Seems odd that you would think of the bolded as a possibility very early on in the day. To me it would seem like only someone who actually did this would think of it this early.

Night 3 you turn Seb
Night 4 seb passes no one turns.
Night 5 you want the spore back as a passenger reporting in without the spore means you get suspicion on you. The agent is going to investigate Seb anyway so sacrificing him is no big deal.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

Seems odd that you would think of the bolded as a possibility very early on in the day. To me it would seem like only someone who actually did this would think of it this early.

Night 3 you turn Seb
Night 4 seb passes no one turns.
Night 5 you want the spore back as a passenger reporting in without the spore means you get suspicion on you. The agent is going to investigate Seb anyway so sacrificing him is no big deal.

I'm saying it's a possibility. Have you seen what happens here when you leave a possibility off of a list?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I'm saying it's a possibility. Have you seen what happens here when you leave a possibility off of a list?

I don't think in listing of the options I would have thought of it. I had completely assumed the agent made the kill. What made you think of it.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Because someone kept saying I should be investigated...

Yes, because I thought you should be. I thought it was a good idea to investigate you at that time. How is that hard to believe that I think you should have been investigated. There are many valid reasons why I think that. Just because you didn't want to be investigated doesn't mean I'm wrong in thinking you should have been.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

But nobody but yourself left him off that list Squiggs96.

Now you're still bringing up the possibility of me being turned. Hoping that the Government Agent reveals to confirms what everyone already knows? I was investigated on Night 4.

And nobody but you kept bringing this up Oling. Others talked about it, but only after you brought it up multiple times. If you hadn't repeatedly gone on and on and on and on and on about it, then maybe Seb doesn't get the spore in order to set me up. That's on you if that's what happened, all because I didn't feel like putting him on my list. If someone was turned on night 3, and Seb was turned on night 4, there is a very real possibility that the spore was sent to Seb on night 4 specifically to make me look bad. If you don't harp on about him not being on my list, then that doesn't happen.

I'm not in any way, shape or form hoping the Agent reveals. That's you trying to suggest more stuff I've never said. To make it very clear to you, I hope the Agent does not reveal him/herself.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

And nobody but you kept bringing this up Oling. Others talked about it, but only after you brought it up multiple times. If you hadn't repeatedly gone on and on and on and on and on about it, then maybe Seb doesn't get the spore in order to set me up. That's on you if that's what happened, all because I didn't feel like putting him on my list.

Why not though?!

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You and Puxlut seem to have as much confirmed town status as anybody around here. I stated it in my post, and you confirmed it here. I believe it would be a good idea to send it to a confirmed townie. Since it's a waste to send it to Pux, you are the only other option.

Read this sentence. Why was SebC not mentioned? He had as much or more confirmed status. You've never disagreed with that. Now that he's been found Turned it looks suspicious.

You keep turning this conversation into how I'm mad you wanted me investigated or accused me of being turned/host or whatever. I don't care, lots of people have suggested that as a possibility, that's part of the game. The crux of my argument isn't about me, it's about why you left SebC, the second most confirmed town, off your list of confirmed townies. It didn't make sense then, it looks highly suspicious now that he was Turned.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don't think in listing of the options I would have thought of it. I had completely assumed the agent made the kill. What made you think of it.

It's in the first post of the game:

Originally Posted by Mazrim

The spore works as follows:

• If the holder of the spore is not lynched and the host wishes to recover it, they must kill a turned player and wait the timeframes listed previously.

I was trying to think of any scenario that would kill Seb. Since all we've done is lynch our own townies, the hosts are getting closer to victory. Oling was quite vocal that if Seb ends up dead, it is an easy vote for me. I've come up with a few scenarios that are a little out there (e.g. captain passes the spore to another host on night 0), and maybe some of these were actually correct. I don't know if they are or not, but they might be. Maybe they didn't like how on Thursday I got a whole bunch of votes to move around (even though they were able to lynch another townie and we still haven't figured out if mrk and/or starseed are hosts or town).

With Seb being killed on Night 5, Oling follows through with his statement to go after me. I defend myself, but it looks like he's gotten a few people to buy into his theory so far. The hosts could have orchestrated this whole thing by killing Seb, and they are then able to send the spore to the person they want. It's reasonable to assume this could have happened. Whether it did or not, I'll find out when I'm lynched or when the game is over (either host or town win). Since people like you didn't think of this possibility, maybe the hosts were hoping no one would think of this possibility. With all of the returning players in this game, players need to try new things, knowing many of the obvious moves will be pointed out. This could be one.

If I get lynched, then Oling will say that I was a bad townie, my logic was flawed, I was hurting the town, etc., etc., just like he did in Smash Bros. It's a good lynch for the hosts if I go.