CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[starseed]

Im giving up until tomorrow night. It is past midnight and the deadline isnt until friday. I am running in circles, but I am building a notes list. Also here is a quick observation from my sheet:

In creating my spreadsheet from the skeleton of the spreadsheet from last game, I noticed that around the mid point of the game, no scum player had targeted (with a vote) the townies known to me at the time, at a rate of less than 50%. After filling in the votes/unvotes, I looked at who targeted whom. There are 4 known townies to me now, outside of Puxlut, whom nobody has cast a vote for. Myself, AS, girly, and ecf.

Oling has been the only one to target all four with a vote, however he was also one of only two players to target more than 7 players with a vote. Outside of Activestick and Girly who only voted for 1 and 2 separate people respectively, 7 players have voted for a known townie at a rate of half or more. They are:

Devo22 (3 for 5)
Oling (4 for 8)
PE (3 for 5)
Peanut (3 for 4)
SebC (2 for 4)
Squiggs (3 for 5)
Timbo (2 for 4)

Again, last game had 100% of the scum on a list like that, but different players have different strategies, so who knows. I have a very strong feeling that a couple of the hosts are in there.

[GGG]

Sorry for not posting much today. My work Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday this week has been crazy. I am going to switch to Mr.Kajz today.

unvote
vote mr.kajz

I'm doing this early so that we get to the deadlock sooner.

Seb if you have a case to make against someone do it now. I'm not sure where you played mafia but our group here does not seem to be active enough around deadlines to make late swings.

I think HG makes a really good point on MrKajz today. That his list of 3 scumspects all voted the same. Instead of acknowledging that it's unlikely that all 3 are scum but that he likes the list he doubles down on the idea.

I agree that it looks like mrkajz had picked guys he would be suspicious of and got caught.

[Hockeyguy15]

I won't be on much during the daytime today and tomorrow, I am in a first aid class. I'll check in when I can.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GGG

[...]

I think HG makes a really good point on MrKajz today. That his list of 3 scumspects all voted the same. Instead of acknowledging that it's unlikely that all 3 are scum but that he likes the list he doubles down on the idea.

I agree that it looks like mrkajz had picked guys he would be suspicious of and got caught.

I'd just like to clarify that I have never once said that my picks for scum are certain. I have admitted that all three scum voting in line would be odd, but considering the context of how the votes went, its not out of the realm of possibilities.

I took a look at the Day 4 vote and figured Diss would not have did what he did if Starseed was scum. I then made a conclusion that my other three targets still seem the most scummy to me. HG and I then went back and forth for a bit, and all I did was point out a scenario that I think is not unreasonable for how my top three targets could have been playing together. I never said "this is what happened", I said "this could of happened".

All I'm really saying is we cannot write off certain ideas because of a simple reason like "all scum wouldn't vote in line." The best scum strategy would be to do something unexpected, no?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

The way it's shaping up right now it seems almost everyone is sticking to their position from the last round. We haven't heard much from bizarro or GGG lately but I'm wondering if those two will vote for mrkajz again? That could put us in almost the same deadlock as before.

This almost seems to me like party elephant is trying to push for another deadlock, which is not a town friendly thing, imo. I'm not voting for my second choice this early in the day just so we end up tied again. Party Elephant is still my first choice vote for all the reasons I said yesterday, so I'm putting that on the record and voting for him again.

vote: party elephant

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

This almost seems to me like party elephant is trying to push for another deadlock, which is not a town friendly thing, imo.

vote: party elephant

And yet GGG is doing the exact same thing.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

And yet GGG is doing the exact same thing.

I'm gauging GGGs reaction to getting pushed by party the same as my own, which is that I feel manipulated and pushed. I seriously considered voting mrkajz again because I think it would be easier, but I'm going with my first choice here which I think is the right way to play the game. If GGG thought it was closer than I do between the two it doesn't surprise me that he'd switch. Right now my estimates are probably 60% chance party is scum, 40% chance mrkajz is scum, and 35% chance starseed is scum. Those are all higher than the random baseline chance of being scum, so I'd be willing to vote any of them, but the best townie play is to stick to your guns and not let scum manipulate your vote.

That tie was a serious waste of our game. I haven't really seen any substantial new "evidence" brought forward. At least if we had lynched someone we would have had a card flip to go off.
I'm still disappointed with starseed's lack of input. And right about now, as I look at the list of the names, everyone is suspicious to me.

[squiggs96]

I'm happy to leave my vote on starseed. The biggest worry I have is that it has been really quiet in here the last 48 hours. I know there is still time between now and the deadline, but if a host or a turned was in trouble I would have thought there would be some more chatter going on to create confusion.

Seb has talked multiple times about holding votes until closer to the end. I like to get votes out there early, so we can gauge responses, and change them if need be. I understand his point on voting late can cause the hosts to scramble and misspeak, but if you vote early, they have more time to screw up.

[Timbo]

Let's see if this spices things up
Unvote
Vote starseed

[devo22]

still pissed about the no-lynch, but my bizaro vote is pretty useless at this point.

unvote

I will wait until starseed has made his death post. Would still be comfortable with voting mrkajz again, but first and foremost we can not afford to get into a deadlock again. Starseed is high on my scum list too, so I'd be willing to hammer if needed.

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

It takes 8 votes to hammer, 5 to deadline lynch

Hasn't Voted (2): SebC, devo22

starseed (7): Party Elephant, Peanut, mrkajz44, Puxlut, squiggs96, dissentowner, Timbo
mrkajz44 (3): starseed, Hockeyguy15, GGG
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen
Party Elephant (1): bizaro86




The deadline is Friday, June 19th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Originally Posted by SebC

I don't understand why everyone's so eager to vote early. I have a vote that I'd really like to cast, but I think voting late holds more value so I am witholding it.

When we're one vote away from hammer and for the second time wind up being a non-voter, you start to become suspicious in my eyes. We can't find voting patterns unless people vote.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by devo22

still pissed about the no-lynch, but my bizaro vote is pretty useless at this point.

unvote

I will wait until starseed has made his death post. Would still be comfortable with voting mrkajz again, but first and foremost we can not afford to get into a deadlock again. Starseed is high on my scum list too, so I'd be willing to hammer if needed.

I'm all for going after those two but starseed is higher on my priority list.

[SebC]

vote: squiggs96

I'd rather not waste an investigation.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by SebC

vote: squiggs96

I'd rather not waste an investigation.

I don't get this. Are you trying to say you want squiggs investigated by the agent instead of mrkajz, so he's a better person to have second in votes?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't get this. Are you trying to say you want squiggs investigated by the agent instead of mrkajz, so he's a better person to have second in votes?

No.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Now I would like to say pretty much the only reason I think SebC is possibly turned is because of Squiggs96 pushing so hard for me to be investigated while not mentioning SebC for the same reasons.

[Mazrim]

Flavour was added to the Day 5 Post. Sorry for the delay.

[Hockeyguy15]

Well I didn't miss much today apparently.

[dissentowner]

SebC, you have got to be the weirdest damn player I have ever seen.