CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

My stance on mrkajz44 has not changed. I think he is a host.
GGG likes to unvote a lot but that is consistent with previous game play but it still is an interesting trend.
Peanut still has given us to small a sample fore to gain any insight
Squiggs is either lost or is causing misdirection on purpose. This gives me concern as he changed his vote to my #1 suspect mrkajz.
Still not sure on Diss.
Still worried about bizaro

[bizaro86]

I've put together a list of How many times each person unvoted and who they unvoted for based on HG15s list above. The number in brackets beside the name is how many times that person has unvoted. For example, devo22 unvoted twice: for girly and mrkajz.

devo22: (2) Girlysports, mrkajz44
Timbo: (2) dissentowner, dissentowner
bizaro86: (2) Timbo, dissentowner
squiggs96: (2) Peanut, Lego Man
Puxlut: (2) Devo22, East Coast Flame
GGG: (7) Party Elephant, bizaro86, mrkajz, Party Elephant, SebC, dissentowner, SebC
Peanut: (1) Timbo
Party Elephant: (2) GGG, Hockeyguy15
SebC: (1) Girlysports
Lego Man: (2) Timbo, Party Elephant
mrkajz44: (1) Party Elephant
Hockeyguy15: (2) Squiggs, Dissentowner
Oling_Roachinen: (4) Dissentowner, Timbo, Girlysports, Timbo
dissentowner: (2) hockeyguy15, Timbo

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Timbo

My stance on mrkajz44 has not changed. I think he is a host.
GGG likes to unvote a lot but that is consistent with previous game play but it still is an interesting trend.
Peanut still has given us to small a sample fore to gain any insight
Squiggs is either lost or is causing misdirection on purpose. This gives me concern as he changed his vote to my #1 suspect mrkajz.
Still not sure on Diss.
Still worried about bizaro

I'm not lost. I just decided to try and listen to reason. If I was okay to vote for mrkajz last round, and nothing has changed, I should be fine with voting him again. After listening to some well reasoned arguments, it doesn't make sense to vote for Peanut. I stated it recently, but again, I think I was too hard on her.

Since I was absent for most of the Smash game, I wanted to be more involved this game. Some of my theories I was wrong on, and I think my stance on Peanut was wrong. I'm still pretty happy to vote for Lego, but for now I think the correct vote is mrkajz.

I too am worried about bizarro. This is mostly based on ECF's death post. In last game many people gave thoughts and clues to who they thought were scum on their death posts. None of these were investigated, and it cost us. I don't want it to cost us this game too.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I went back and checked out how the vote went down on Friday, because it was very weird. As I stated before when the votes came to me, I thought it was a scummy type play due to the timing. Squiggs and Timbo both jumped on me pretty quick, which I took to mean they were working together. At that time, it was HG who was the leading vote person, not ECF. Lego then came on to put me in the lead shortly after the Squiggs and Timbo vote.

So when I look back at it, that was the scummy time of day. Once the votes were moved to me, the fear of HG getting lynched sort of went away. At that point, the scum left the fore-front and we just got all paranoid about the shift in votes (myself included). Party ended up going to ECF, followed closely by Devo and Peanut. It's hard to say why, but it looks like the Seb vote for ECF may have been a driving factor as (at that point) Seb was as close to confirmed town as you could get with the Maz post.

In summary, I think there was a scummy move in votes on Friday, but it wasn't the move from me to ECF. There would be no reason for the scum to come out and move the votes from one town to the other, that late in the day. The real move was made to push the vote off HG, and those that participated were Squiggs, Timbo and Lego. It ended up with HG, Squiggs, Timbo, Lego and ECF on me at the end of the day, and I feel like at least two scum are in that vote. I'm still questioning HG (though he seems to be less steering so far today), but Squiggs weird behaviour so far puts him in my top two with HG.

Mrkajz has a solid point in this post. "There would be no reason for the scum to come out and move the votes from one town to the other, that late in the day."

I also have a theory about the votes on Friday. Mrkajz would have us believe that the shift to him was the work of the hosts, but I believe the shift off of him was the work of the hosts. Early on Friday myself, ECF and mrkajz were the leaders.

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Voted:
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (3): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (2): East Coast Flame, devo22
dissentowner (1): Hockeyguy15
Timbo (1): Peanut
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man

At that point Devo states the following.

Originally Posted by devo22

At this point I'd be somewhat comfortable with any of the top 3 vote getters, they are 3 of my top 4 scum suspects (with Lego Man being the 4th). Could switch my vote to either HG or ECF if needed to guarantee a lynch.

Of the 4, the one I'm still cautious about is HG. We are either cutting of the snake's head here or we're getting rid of a top scum hunter. My opinion of HG almost changes with every post he's making.

Then ECF takes his vote off mrkajz and puts it on bizaro, and I vote for mrkajz, and bizaro votes ECF. That puts us at 4 votes for me, 4 for ECF and 2 for mrkajz. This is essentially where the charge on votes for me and ECF ends and the votes on mrkajz start to pile on, squiggs and Timbo vote for mrkajz as well. Devo then pulls a 180 and says this.

Originally Posted by devo22

I won't switch my vote to ECF or HG at this point either. I didn't expect that kind of death post from ECF and it makes me believe that he maybe is town after all. As for HG, I like squiggs' thinking (keeping HG and Diss around for further discussion on day 4), plus it seems it's too late for a good death post as well.

I'll either keep my vote for mrkajz or switch to Lego if there's support.

Lego also votes for mrkajz and ECF puts his vote back on mrkajz, so mrkajz is now the lead vote getter.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Voted:
mrkajz44 (6): devo22, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (4): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut
East Coast Flame (4): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86
Timbo (1): Peanut

Mrkajz says I am steering the ship again, except all I have done is put my vote onto him and gave my reasoning.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Squiggs, I appreciate the response, but its a bit of a bummer I'm basically getting a vote as you don't want to vote for the other candidates.

Timbo, yes I am busy at work and try to check in when I can. You'll notice most of my posts are of decent length, putting enough discussion into one post that many people don't put in 5. At this point, I think low post count isn't a great reason for a vote.

I truly think HG has pulled another fast one on the town and steered the ship again. I am worried he will continue to pop into the thread, pound out 3 or 4 points nearly in a row and turn the tide of whole conversations.

PE then takes his vote off me and puts it onto ECF. Now I'm not sure if PE or Devo is working with mrkajz, or if they are both working with him. But at the time ECF was taking some flack from people and was on the radar, I was gone camping and it seems like the heat was off me at that point.

It's interesting that PE thinks I am the most scummy, but yet he flips his vote from me to ECF rather than making a stronger case against me.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I've gone all the way back to Day 1 to do some digging. One thing that stuck out to me was ECF's urgency to get a vote through, regardless of who it was on. Some examples:



Devo noticed it too, and implied with this post that it didn't jive with him:



I've mentioned earlier that I think the scum's strategy has to revolve around forcing town lynches, and the best time to do that is early in the game when we're not really sure what's going on. The way ECF was posting on day 1 suggested he was nervous there would be no lynch. On day 1 there was a 14/17 chance of getting a townie with the lynch so obviously it would make sense for scum to be pushing the "Just vote, doesn't matter where but we need a lynch" agenda. The more town they can pick off early, the better their odds. In my opinion the spore is too unreliable for scum to base their strategy around it as once they send it off they have no control over who it goes to next. Hell, they might not even be using the spore at all. Just pass it around in a circle between the hosts to keep the town guessing.



Of the current frontrunners, I'm not really on board with lynching mrkajz. I don't really see enough of a strategy in his posts to think scum. In my opinion hockeyguy is the most scummy, but my recent analysis has got me thinking ECF could be scum as well. Would make sense that the two scum with heat on them collaborate to vote for the other frontrunner. I'd like to see either get lynched, so I'm comfortable moving my vote.
unvote
vote: East Coast Flame

And IRL, hope you guys all have a great weekend! ECF, I'm jealous you're going to the Canada game. Looks like fun!

Seb comes along and explains his reason for voting ECF.

Originally Posted by SebC

Looks like some of you need a bit of persuasion.

Once again, my mason telepath knows what's up. If he's scum, I'm not the one to bust him because apparently I'm completely transparent to him.



One of the things I thought a commitment to a low-information environment would do is aggravate scum. If nobody's a target, everyone could be a target. Scum would want information so they know who to defend, and from what. This makes their job a lot tougher.

It would also make me an easy-to-justify target, after all the reasoning comes straight from the mod. I tried to subtlely move votes of activeStick because I believed him and thought it an opportunity to build town cred to offset that - to balance things enough that I don't get lynched, but still get targetted. (I thought that Mazrim's message would end that, but even in his deathpost ECF is still targeting me, and the other towniest townies.)

Two players have stuck to their guns against me on this. GGG and ECF. GGG, at least, seems to sincerely believe in what he's preaching. ECF, however, even noted that he was getting flack for being inconspicuous. I even got an emotional response out of him.



Then there's this. P#329 for context.



Why would ECF "not feel good" about lynching activeStick, then advocate lynching inactives? I think he knew activeStick was going to flip town, and wanted to distance himself.

Add in the strange death post (going after Puxlut, really?) and the unwillingness of the "town" to lynch ECF despite having likely townies leading the way and I think we might've just seen the effectiveness of limiting scum's reaction time to a day.

Devo then decides he can move his vote to ECF (changing his mind again from earlier), which flips the vote from 6-5 mrkajz to 6-5 ECF.

Originally Posted by devo22

alright, I can get behind the arguments made by Elephant and SebC. Plus ECF coming back some time after his death post to defend himself and - more importantly - move his vote to mrkajz does reek of desperation to save his life more than anything else.

unvote
vote East Coast Flame

I'm not sure if PE or devo or both are working with mrkajz, but the vote swing was interesting. I do think it would be a pretty aggressive play to have both the other hosts sway the vote like that, but PE does say it would make sense for two hosts to work together to get the vote on another frontrunner.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm not sure if PE or devo or both are working with mrkajz, but the vote swing was interesting. I do think it would be a pretty aggressive play to have both the other hosts sway the vote like that, but PE does say it would make sense for two hosts to work together to get the vote on another frontrunner.

Interesting deduction. I was thinking about it, and realized that I haven't noticed much of what Party Elephant has done so far this game. I checked the vote count, and he's just above peanut and Lego. Which could be a good place to hide, active enough that he doesn't get focused on as an inactive, but posting so little (and often one-liners) that there isn't much in his history to grab on to.

Interestingly, I went and found the first vote-count of the game and he was in about the same place. Just above the inactives that were getting heat for not posting enough.

[bizaro86]

Link to earlier vote count:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=243

[devo22]

the idea of me working together with mrkajz makes me laugh ... that's some pretty adventurous stuff, to be honest. He is actually still very high on my list of suspects and I'd have no problem voting for him again today.

[mrkajz44]

Haha - yeah, I feel like devo and I can agree that us working together is a pretty big stretch considering how vocal Devo's been against me. I'm not so sure about the flip flop theory on him either, he's only actually unvoted twice, per bizaro's post, which I think speaks much more than just post content.

I'm wondering a bit about GGG's constant movement. He seems to be all over the place, when everyone else has 1 or 2 vote movements, he's way up at 7. That might be a really good strategy as all the voting and unvoting just causes confusion as to where his head is really at, not to mention it's hard to track a pattern. Any comments GGG?

[dissentowner]

On a paid duty guys, I will be on more after my shift. Some interesting posts today for sure.

[SebC]

Just to let you all know, my internet was down most of the weekend. Going to be out this evening as well (as mentioned in one of my first posts, Sundays/Mondays are my least active days).

I'm sorry I lead us down an incorrect path, there's really not a whole lot more I can say about that.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Mrkajz has a solid point in this post. "There would be no reason for the scum to come out and move the votes from one town to the other, that late in the day."

I also have a theory about the votes on Friday. Mrkajz would have us believe that the shift to him was the work of the hosts, but I believe the shift off of him was the work of the hosts. Early on Friday myself, ECF and mrkajz were the leaders.

Agreed. That is why I posted the following:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

In post #1237 mrkajz gives a brief summary and says the votes moving to him seem so well planned it must be a scum plan. I tried driving the vote towards mrkajz so I know it's not scum driven.



I really don't like how mrkajz had a good sized lead and then the vote quickly switched to ECF. Using mrkajz's words, it seems like it was scum driven.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Haha - yeah, I feel like devo and I can agree that us working together is a pretty big stretch considering how vocal Devo's been against me. I'm not so sure about the flip flop theory on him either, he's only actually unvoted twice, per bizaro's post, which I think speaks much more than just post content.

I'm wondering a bit about GGG's constant movement. He seems to be all over the place, when everyone else has 1 or 2 vote movements, he's way up at 7. That might be a really good strategy as all the voting and unvoting just causes confusion as to where his head is really at, not to mention it's hard to track a pattern. Any comments GGG?

In general I vote early to create discussion where some people might just post. I think a vote carries more wait and forces everyone to consider if they want to join the wagon or not. I'm also active in the early part of days and do not wait for consensous to form around a few candidates and the vote between them. I also vote for people to gauge reaction. For example day one I vote d for Bizaro early then got his response about his early game actions and moved on. Voted Party Elephant didn't like his response and stayed on him until near deadline when I moved to active.

My preference would be for others to do the same and create more votes to look for patterns in. It also creates a better record of what I thought when for others to analyse. So instead of looking at posts you can look at votes when rereading my positions.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

3) Our vote pattern has been inactive (active stick) middle activity (girly) and middle activity (ECF). Someone suggested (sorry, I forgot who) that they think the scum team will be one very active and two inactive posters. That sort of makes sense to me, and suggests we should focus on the bottom of the activity list or the top. At the top I think HG15 is unlikely, but for the third most posts I don't recall much serious discussion around GGG.

I'm not the most experienced player on the block, but I think there is a high likelihood at least one, maybe even two, of the scum would be "middle activity". It's easier to blend in in the middle of the pack, isn't it? Thinking about the least actives (myself, Lego and PE), it is hard for me to get a read on PE or Lego. So I do see where the complaints are coming from related to inactives not helping the town very much. Sorry guys.

Anyways. I would be surprised if both PE and Lego were scum just based on how inactive they are. That would be risky as a scum strategy since there does seem to be focus on low activity people in every vote. So maybe one of PE or Lego could be hiding out as an inactive. I actually would lean towards PE based on how the votes went down yesterday.

[GGG]

GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC

Going through the thread again and this jumped out. I'm willing to bet there was scum on the girly wagon and the active wagon. Looking at the Girly Wagon we know active is town and it's highly likely Seb is town. That leaves one of Lego, Mrkajz, or Party as scum.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC

Going through the thread again and this jumped out. I'm willing to bet there was scum on the girly wagon and the active wagon. Looking at the Girly Wagon we know active is town and it's highly likely Seb is town. That leaves one of Lego, Mrkajz, or Party as scum.

My feelings on this are well documented.
Time to vote

Vote:mrkajz44

[Hockeyguy15]

I also find it hard to believe that Mrkajz has not voted for any of the 3 who were lynched, but is on the runner up all 3 times.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

From my perspective - I'm very confident that Girly is town, so once you are investigated and proven town... well that's 3 town members proven if everyone includes themselves. Not to mention lynching someone else. Just my opinion though.

The tone of Girlys posts since she found out she had the spore passed really give me the town vibe.

But, I don't disagree (and can't really argue) with the logic of voting for GirlySports (I just don't believe she turned) - so i'll go along with you guys for this day

unvote

Vote: GirlySports

This might be the worst vote ever. Doesn't believe girly is turned, believes she is town vote girly.

This might go in the so bad it's town category

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

This might be the worst vote ever. Doesn't believe girly is turned, believes she is town vote girly.

This might go in the so bad it's town category

It could be spore paranoia. But I get what you are saying. Imagine if scum were mrkajz44, Legoman and Party Elephant.

Time zone hell... they did not communicate well. Legoman comes in after the last lynch and tries to mitigate vote patterns by saying beware of those looking at vote patterns.

Dude townies use all the tools at our disposal!

[GGG]

So I reread day 1 and day 2 and came up with some strong suspicions on Devo and Party Elephant. Devo because of his late votes on day one and day 2 and even on 3 when he starts after mrkajz but in the end when we had HG, MrKajz and ECF was okay with voting any of them.

Party Elephant because of his tunnel at players he won't likely be able to lynch and his day one play. Day one he was all over the place clearly being noobish. The question was noobtown or noobscum. Day 2 it seems he got some advice. Pick someone you don't think will get lynched and stay after them. Day two was Oling is host conspiracy despite the previous day going after girly, day 3 was HockeyGuy is leading us around.

I have varying degrees of suspicion for MrKajz, Diss, Bizaro, Peanut, Timbo, Squiggs, lego

Have Seb, pux, oling, HG as town for today. Posts to follow with quotes

[GGG]

Originally Posted by devo22

so we have 4 votes on activeStick and GirlySports each.

I'm torn here, I could see reasoning for each of them at this point. Like I wrote previously, I found GirlySports' absence really weird. Posts a lot in the beginning, goes missing in the thread for two days and after I vote for because of that, she just pops up again and acts as if nothing has happened ... except for the generic "It's been quiet in here so I didn't post either". Maybe I'm reading too much into this.

And then of course there's activeStick, and I could easily get behind a lynch here as well. It's pretty funny that he himself points to how he's played the game previously, because that comment actually reminded me of the one where he played Medvedev in the NHL game. He also started very slow in that one ... and didn't exactly turn out to be town back then. And even without that background, going only by his posts in this thread, I just have a weird feeling about him.

Since it's midnight already over here and I'm off to bed soon, I'll have to decide and give my vote right now. Going with gut feeling:

vote activeStick

so that's the 5th vote for him. In any case, please allow for a deathbed post!

This is devos first day one vote. From a scum perspective he just votes among the two front runners who he would now both are town provides some reasoning and makes a decision.

Originally Posted by devo22

well ... that wasn't exactly the start we had hoped for -.-

The devo laments the day one results to me this is a minor scum tell

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Vote Count

With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (7): devo22, Puxlut, Peanut, Party Elephant, SebC, mrkajz44, GirlySports

Voted:
GirlySports (6): Oling_Roachinen, East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15
Timbo (2): Lego Man, GGG
Peanut (1): squiggs96

The deadline is Monday, June 1st at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Thursday, May 28th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Day 2 and devo again waits until it's almost decide to vote. Devo votes immediately following this after consenous is almost reached.

Originally Posted by devo22

I want to thank Mazrim for again making me suspicious of everybody and everything. It's amazing what that game can do to you

I have suspicions of a few guys, but the one who still sticks out to me is mrkajz44 ... and that's where my vote goes for now. I agree with East Coast Flame here in regards to mrkajz44 and his drive by posts ... when you post like that, it looks like you're active, but you don't actually add a lot to the discussion. He was one of those who were adamant with moving the vote off Girly on day 2, which makes sense if he's a host: saving Girly would have kept the spore alive, but the lynch cost them a day of possibly turning passengers.

vote mrkajz44

Day 3. The first time devo votes early. This post also attacks mrkajz for a non scummy reason.

Originally Posted by devo22

At this point I'd be somewhat comfortable with any of the top 3 vote getters, they are 3 of my top 4 scum suspects (with Lego Man being the 4th). Could switch my vote to either HG or ECF if needed to guarantee a lynch.

Of the 4, the one I'm still cautious about is HG. We are either cutting of the snake's head here or we're getting rid of a top scum hunter. My opinion of HG almost changes with every post he's making.

Here devo is back to i'll just follow the consenous