New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[killer_carlson]

Given Trudeau's complete lack of interest in talking about the economy, the longer he waits to read what the brains of the Liberals have written out for him (in small words) the more likely it will come across as lacking credibility and not being thought out.

Is Trudeau falling into the Ignatief trap of filling his inner circle with yes-men/women and not adjusting to the economy?

Or are people so focused on filling up the gas tank this week and saving a few bucks that they won't notice growing job losses because of the price of oil?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Given Trudeau's complete lack of interest in talking about the economy, the longer he waits to read what the brains of the Liberals have written out for him (in small words) the more likely it will come across as lacking credibility and not being thought out.

Is Trudeau falling into the Ignatief trap of filling his inner circle with yes-men/women and not adjusting to the economy?

Or are people so focused on filling up the gas tank this week and saving a few bucks that they won't notice growing job losses because of the price of oil?

Haha, this is amusing. So now its somehow Trudeau that has to answer for why the budget won't be balanced and we're going to see job losses and a decline in our budgetary situation? What about the guys in power spending money on ridiculous tax credits and breaks instead of taking meaningful action on the debt? Instead of useful tax breaks across the board they're building prisons and squandering money on fighter planes (that everyone told them wouldn't work years ago!), yet you're wondering about the inaction of the Liberals. Astounding really.

Anyway, a spring election seems a formality a this point and I will go out on a limb and make a few really early predictions:

The CPC wins, maybe a minority, but they win. The NDP finishes second and remains official opposition, and the Liberals wind up in third with more seats, but not enough to take the official opposition status never mind government.

For the first time since 1968 the Liberals do win a seat in Calgary, where Kent Hehr wins a close race against Joan Crockatt. I don't think he wins easily, but I do think he wins. Crockatt is basically filling the Rob Anders position at this point, and while a lot of people might lose their passports, they can probably get by without her. That and Hehr is widely respected and galvanizing a lot of supporters from all of the parties.

The reason I think that the Liberals make gains but not as much as people might expect after the last 18 months of positive polling for them is simply vote distribution. Between that issue, where they have concentration in some spots and nothing in others, and the fact that there are basically three strong parties heading into this election, it makes winning a majority almost impossible for any party. It also will make the gains for the Liberals somewhat muted, at least in my non-professional, purely crystal ball reading opinion.

[PsYcNeT]

Anyone know what the (approximately true) number we're up to for those fighter jets is now?

Also someone should dig up the thread and all the hilarious comments defending the purchase and the need for Canada to have up-to-date broken jet planes that suck so we can something something defense.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Slava

Haha, this is amusing. So now its somehow Trudeau that has to answer for why the budget won't be balanced and we're going to see job losses and a decline in our budgetary situation? What about the guys in power spending money on ridiculous tax credits and breaks instead of taking meaningful action on the debt? Instead of useful tax breaks across the board they're building prisons and squandering money on fighter planes (that everyone told them wouldn't work years ago!), yet you're wondering about the inaction of the Liberals. Astounding really.

Anyway, a spring election seems a formality a this point and I will go out on a limb and make a few really early predictions:

The CPC wins, maybe a minority, but they win. The NDP finishes second and remains official opposition, and the Liberals wind up in third with more seats, but not enough to take the official opposition status never mind government.

For the first time since 1968 the Liberals do win a seat in Calgary, where Kent Hehr wins a close race against Joan Crockatt. I don't think he wins easily, but I do think he wins. Crockatt is basically filling the Rob Anders position at this point, and while a lot of people might lose their passports, they can probably get by without her. That and Hehr is widely respected and galvanizing a lot of supporters from all of the parties.

The reason I think that the Liberals make gains but not as much as people might expect after the last 18 months of positive polling for them is simply vote distribution. Between that issue, where they have concentration in some spots and nothing in others, and the fact that there are basically three strong parties heading into this election, it makes winning a majority almost impossible for any party. It also will make the gains for the Liberals somewhat muted, at least in my non-professional, purely crystal ball reading opinion.

Complain, critique and howl about Harper all you want. Quite frankly it's important that people do that. There are things in the record that deserve to be critiqued.

Trudeau doesn't have to explain why Harper didn't balance the budget, but he does have to explain how he will manage the economy. He has to do it with more than platitudes.

He hasn't done anything on the economy, and the longer he waits the more likely it is that:

a) he has no idea;
b) his team has an idea but he doesn't understand it;
c) he thinks Canadians care more about other issues; or
d) (most likely) he thinks he can win the election without getting into details or strategies on how to manage the economy.


I think that the longer he waits the more nervous voters will get and will look to the CPC who managed to get the country through the last recession on its feet.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Complain, critique and howl about Harper all you want. Quite frankly it's important that people do that. There are things in the record that deserve to be critiqued.

Trudeau doesn't have to explain why Harper didn't balance the budget, but he does have to explain how he will manage the economy. He has to do it with more than platitudes.

He hasn't done anything on the economy, and the longer he waits the more likely it is that:

a) he has no idea;
b) his team has an idea but he doesn't understand it;
c) he thinks Canadians care more about other issues; or
d) (most likely) he thinks he can win the election without getting into details or strategies on how to manage the economy.


I think that the longer he waits the more nervous voters will get and will look to the CPC who managed to get the country through the last recession on its feet.

I can't remember a Federal election in the last 25 years that was won based on a "better" platform. Almost every one was because the other guys ####ed up real bad somehow.

[killer_carlson]

and I think not talking about the economy when the wealthiest provinces either directly rely upon oil, or upon manufacturing jobs arising out of the oil industry would be a big mistake.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

and I think not talking about the economy when the wealthiest provinces either directly rely upon oil, or upon manufacturing jobs arising out of the oil industry would be a big mistake.

This is why politics is so stupid (not you, but politics in general!). People in Alberta are ready to hang the provincial government out to dry because the didn't save enough during the good times for what we see today, but let the federal government off the hook for the exact same behavior. It would be one thing if this was based on something tangible or important, but instead its just because the blue team is better than the red team. I guess in Alberta we have a green team that isn't red, so they're OK to and thats why we can rally against the blue team. Just so stupid and ridiculous.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Slava

This is why politics is so stupid (not you, but politics in general!). People in Alberta are ready to hang the provincial government out to dry because the didn't save enough during the good times for what we see today, but let the federal government off the hook for the exact same behavior. It would be one thing if this was based on something tangible or important, but instead its just because the blue team is better than the red team. I guess in Alberta we have a green team that isn't red, so they're OK to and thats why we can rally against the blue team. Just so stupid and ridiculous.

you're spinning this back as against the Conservatives. I suspect it is because they and the NDP are the only parties with details about how they would manage the economy.

The problem you need to be addressing is why the Libs haven't put out their own plan.

(and whether they are scrambling because that plan had been to tax the ___ out of the oil industry under an "environmental effort" but now realizing they have to be more transparent about the intended wealth transfer to central canada)

[Slava]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

you're spinning this back as against the Conservatives. I suspect it is because they and the NDP are the only parties with details about how they would manage the economy.

The problem you need to be addressing is why the Libs haven't put out their own plan.

(and whether they are scrambling because that plan had been to tax the ___ out of the oil industry under an "environmental effort" but now realizing they have to be more transparent about the intended wealth transfer to central canada)

Well this is just not true. The Liberals have made pointed comments about economic issues, and noted exactly the opposite of some of the conservative positions. This past fall when Harper started trying to buy votes with his income splitting, Trudeau was out immediately explaining why its a bad idea, how it would benefit a small percentage of tax payers, and that he would repeal it immediately. You might not like these kinds of positions, and choose to ignore them, but the fact of the matter is that they are out there.

[killer_carlson]

Trudeau reacts but presents nothing original and no comprehensive plan.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Trudeau reacts but presents nothing original and no comprehensive plan.

I wasn't aware it was election season. He has plenty of time to roll out a platform

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

Haha, this is amusing. So now its somehow Trudeau that has to answer for why the budget won't be balanced and we're going to see job losses and a decline in our budgetary situation? What about the guys in power spending money on ridiculous tax credits and breaks instead of taking meaningful action on the debt? Instead of useful tax breaks across the board they're building prisons and squandering money on fighter planes (that everyone told them wouldn't work years ago!), yet you're wondering about the inaction of the Liberals. Astounding really.

Ahh, so it was fair to attack Wildrose for apparently not having in-depth plans on what to do if they were government, but it is unfair to treat the federal Liberals the same way?

Your partisan bias is showing again, Slava.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ahh, so it was fair to attack Wildrose for apparently not having in-depth plans on what to do if they were government, but it is unfair to treat the federal Liberals the same way?

Your partisan bias is showing again, Slava.

I don't really think it's fair to criticize either. Opposition parties are supposed to critique, question, and hold the government accountable. They can offer suggestions, private members bills, etc., but asking to actually put together a formal budget plan before an election is even announced seems silly to me.

EDIT: I should add that at least WRA are/were the official oppostion. The Liberals are the third party right now, so that expectation seems even more ridiculous to me. If they were out there creating formal budget plans, etc., Conservative and NDP supporters would probably be accusing them of arrogance.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ahh, so it was fair to attack Wildrose for apparently not having in-depth plans on what to do if they were government, but it is unfair to treat the federal Liberals the same way?

Yes, because the Wildrose didn't have a solid plan right up to the day of the election(s). The Liberals will release their platform when they deem it advantageous to do so. If it is then found lacking, attack away.

[Resolute 14]

You know as well as anyone that the attacks continued right up to the day Smith et all crossed, so the "day of the elections" dodge is crap.

I agree we'll see what, if anything, the Liberals have come up with when they feel it is advantageous. But at the same time, until they demonstrate the existence of ideas, don't be surprised if people like killer_carlson will question whether they have any.

[PsYcNeT]

Honestly, the Liberals could have a "buy everyone a hat" platform and it would be less ludicrously stupid than "buy broken fighter jets" and "allow a for-profit prison system to exist".

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ahh, so it was fair to attack Wildrose for apparently not having in-depth plans on what to do if they were government, but it is unfair to treat the federal Liberals the same way?

Your partisan bias is showing again, Slava.

You know the Liberals release in depth plans though; need I remind you of the Green shift that you were so high on? The Red book from Chretien and the list goes on. All of the federal parties release fully costed and detailed platforms, and frankly agree or disagree with the party, it's the one thing they all do. The NDP will have theirs and the numbers will all balance and it will be audited by a big name firm to prove it. I'm sure the Liberals and CPC will do the exact same.

You guys can say all you want that they have no plan, but they will. The Wildrose however released a fifteen page, non costed out plan. They deserved to be questioned on that, regardless of what you think is a bias.

[RougeUnderoos]

What is with all chatter about the Liberal's plan? The election isn't until October 19th. Do they have to put it out now?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

What is with all chatter about the Liberal's plan? The election isn't until October 19th.

Unless Harper breaks his own law again.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Honestly, the Liberals could have a "buy everyone a hat" platform and it would be less ludicrously stupid than "buy broken fighter jets" and "allow a for-profit prison system to exist".

Wait, the conservatives want to put a for-profit prison system in place? Why hasn't that gotten anymore attention? It's one of the absolute worst things a country can do to it's justice system as shown by how ####ed up the American prison institution is. If they really want to copy that system then that should be all anyone needs to hear, the conservatives need to be removed from power