New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[Tinordi]

But if Conservative strategists were counting on a Harper summer spent in the foreign policy limelight to restore their party’s shine in voting intentions, they have to be dismayed by the mid-summer polls.
The Liberals remain in the lead and the latest polls suggest the gap in their favour has been widening.

The most recent poll to be released, done by EKOS last month, pegs the Conservatives in the mid-20s, in a statistical tie with the NDP and 13 points behind the Liberals.

Like its competitors, this pollster put the Conservatives well behind the Liberals in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, distant also-rans in Quebec and leading only in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some 2,620 respondents were polled.

Buried in the EKOS analysis — possibly because it is a provocative notion at this juncture — is the tentative proposition that, at this rate, the Conservatives could have a fight on their hands just to hang on to official Opposition in the next election.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2...ues_hbert.html

The EKOS poll released the other day is like a snowfall in August. It has the ability to shock even as it melts quickly away. It shocks because it challenges so many of our assumptions.

Shock #1 — The Conservatives may be in third place
It isn’t just that the EKOS poll shows the Harper Conservatives at a mere 26 per cent in popular support, barely ahead of the NDP. The Conservatives could be headed for third place in Parliament, behind the NDP as well as the Liberals, according to this seat projection by Paul Barber, who is the best at what he does

The projection, based on the EKOS poll, puts the NDP at 95 seats and leaves 86 for the Conservatives. (The Liberals, at 156, would win the election but fall well short of a majority.)

In other words, the Conservatives may be closer to an Ignatieff-style implosion than they are to another majority government.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/08/12/f...hat-ekos-poll/

The Conservatives were down 2.9 points, averaging 28.1% support. The New Democrats were down 2.6 points to 21.7%, their lowest result since April 2011.

The Greens were down 0.2 points to 5.5%, while the Bloc Québécois was also down 0.2 points to 4.5%. Support for other parties stood at an average of 1.5%.


In British Columbia, the Liberals were up 6.2 points to 33%, while the NDP was down one point to 27.8%. The Conservatives dropped to third and their lowest level since December 2013, with a decrease of 6.1 points to 27.7%. The Greens were up 0.7 points to 10.3%.

The Conservatives fell 4.1 points in Alberta, but still led with 51.3%. The Liberals gained for the third consecutive month, jumping 6.6 points to 29.3%. That is their best since May 2013. The NDP was down 1.8 points to 11.1%, their lowest since December 2013. The Greens were down 1.2 points to 5.5%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives slipped to their lowest level since December 2013, down 8.5 points to 35%. The Liberals were up 2.5 points to 33.4%, their best since February, while the NDP was up 3.1 points to 24.1%, its best since January. The Greens gained two points and averaged 6% support.

The Liberals made a big gain in Ontario, increasing 6.8 points to hit 44.5%. That is their highest support on record going back before 2009. That is especially surprising considering the Liberals had been holding steady in Ontario for the previous 11 months. The Conservatives were down 4.4 points to 30.9%, their lowest since May, while the NDP was down three points to just 17.7%. That is their lowest since March 2011 and, aside from a blip last month, have been dropping in Ontario for four consecutive months. The Greens were unchanged at 5.7%.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/201...-averages.html

Still about a year away from the next election. This is usually a slow news period politically but this poll has really raised some eyebrows.

[burn_this_city]

I've voted Conservative in previous elections, but I don't think I can anymore. Ideology trumps pragmatism far too often for them to be in charge any longer.

[CaptainCrunch]

The election will be interesting and that's when I start taking the polls seriously.

I doubt the Conservatives are heading for third, Mulcair has done a horrible job of running the NDP and he might be a disaster in a campaign.

I have a sense that Trudeau will struggle in a campaign when the media starts to scrutinize and he has to actually debate.

I doubt the Conservatives will get another majority government under Harper though.

[RyZ]

Right now it really is like picking the shiniest of 3 turds. I don't know who I will vote for (just not the NDP). I have big problems with both the Libs and Cons at this point. Maybe I'll just sit this one out.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Still too far out from the election for polls to matter too much but if nothing else I find it extremely unlikely the CPC will get another majority, and without a majority they really won't be able to get accomplished what they want, as neither of the other parties seem likely to work with them. A CPC minority would be terrible because it'd probably result in another election within 24 months.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I've voted Conservative in previous elections, but I don't think I can anymore. Ideology trumps pragmatism far too often for them to be in charge any longer.

Yeah, I can't sit out elections, I can't sit here and harp on people for not voting and then not vote myself.

This might be an election where I focus on my MP and try to blackmail concessions out of him for my vote

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I've voted Conservative in previous elections, but I don't think I can anymore. Ideology trumps pragmatism far too often for them to be in charge any longer.

They had a good run, but eventually losing is the only way to get back to basics for any party.

Way too early to count on polls though. The Conservatives are great promoters and once the attack ads really get flying, it will affect things. the Liberals on the other hand, have a tendency to peak early.

[nik-]

It's going to be a minority, but only because of us here in Alberta. Harper's brand is too damaged and doing things like starting to move the country to copy obviously failed policies just shows how completely out of touch they really are.

[flylock shox]

I'd be interested in a CP poll to see who people expect to vote for next election.

Just from perusing other threads on this site, it seems there's a fairly strong disappointment with the Conservatives among posters here - a group that in the past would have been more in line with (or part of) Calgary's traditionally staunch Conservative base.

Maybe we could do one with 8 options:

- Live in Calgary, voting Conservative
- Live in Calgary, voting Green
- Live in Calgary, voting Liberal
- Live in Calgary, voting NDP
- Live elsewhere, voting Conservative
- Live elsewhere, voting Green
- Live elsewhere, voting Liberal
- Live elsewhere, voting NDP

Don't know if anyone else would be interested, or if it's a subject for a different thread, but I'd be curious to see the spread.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Just from perusing other threads on this site, it seems there's a fairly strong disappointment with the Conservatives among posters here - a group that in the past would have been more in line with (or part of) Calgary's traditionally staunch Conservative base.

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

A shift to the liberal party must mostly be coming from those who were too young to suffer the effects of previous liberal governments.
That's not to say I'm a Harper supporter at all, just simply understand what the alternative is.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

A shift to the liberal party must mostly be coming from those who were too young to suffer the effects of previous liberal governments.
That's not to say I'm a Harper supporter at all, just simply understand what the alternative is.

I don't know, the one that was in power from 1993-2005 was better economically than the CPC has been.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know, the one that was in power from 1993-2005 was better economically than the CPC has been.

Inconvenient.

[Barbecue]

Dont vote libs? hmm...sounds like we need an alternative conservative party...

something that would reform conservatives or an alliance of some sort

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

A shift to the liberal party must mostly be coming from those who were too young to suffer the effects of previous liberal governments.
That's not to say I'm a Harper supporter at all, just simply understand what the alternative is.

This is a pretty hilarious post.

"The world-wide economic recession starting in 1987 was all Trudeaus fault!"

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

A shift to the liberal party must mostly be coming from those who were too young to suffer the effects of previous liberal governments.
That's not to say I'm a Harper supporter at all, just simply understand what the alternative is.

The echo chamber walls are thick.

I can't speak for the Liberals successes but lets take a look at how Canada's done over the past 9 years. This was from the Pincher Creek paper, as a letter to the editor:

Dear Editor,

During the next twenty-five years, the world will become a radically different place. Some nations will aim for excellence; others will aim for mediocrity. Some will be characterized by opportunity; others will be characterized by despair. Some will manage prosperity; others will manage decline. At this point in history, it remains unclear what nation Canada will become.

Stephen Harper has started us down the long path of managed decline. During his time in office: education rankings declined, infrastructure rankings declined, innovation rankings declined, R&D rankings declined and competitiveness rankings declined. A look at the statistics reveals some alarming trends.

First, Canada’s competitiveness remains sluggish. Between 2008 and 2014, the World Economic Forum downgraded Canada’s competitiveness ranking from 10th to 14th. The World Bank Group also downgraded Canada on its “ease of doing business” ranking. Eighteen nations beat us in the “ease of doing business” ranking. Not surprisingly, when asked to identify the best place to do business, neither Bloomberg (2014) nor Forbes (2013) chose Canada. We need to reverse this trend if we are to put Canada on the path to long-term prosperity.

Second, Canada is falling behind on research, development and innovation. Between 2006 and 2011, gross expenditures on R&D declined from 2.00 percent of GDP to 1.70 percent of GDP. South Korea (3.01 percent), Japan (3.26 percent), Germany (2.84 percent), America (2.77 percent) and China (1.84 percent) all outspent Canada. Between 2008 and 2013 the World Economic Forum downgraded Canada’s innovation ranking from 18th to 27th. Singapore, America, Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Australia, and South Korea all have a higher capacity to innovate. We need to reverse this trend if we are to put Canada on the path to long-term prosperity.

Third, Canada’s infrastructure is waning compared to other nations. Between 2008 and 2013, port infrastructure declined from 14th to 20th; railroad infrastructure declined from 15thto 16th; airport infrastructure declined from 17th to 19th; and road infrastructure declined from 10th to 19th. We can’t transport the products, materials and resources of the future efficiently with outdated infrastructure.

Fourth, Canada’s primary education system is slumping compared to other nations. Since 2006, Canada’s global math scores declined from seventh to 13th; science scores declined from third to 10th; and reading scores declined from fourth to seventh. For the first time in Canadian history; Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore bested Canadian students in all three categories. Canada’s post-secondary institutions aren’t doing any better. The World Economic Forum downgraded Canada’s post-secondary system from eighth in 2008 to tenth in 2013. Alarmingly, not a single Canadian university placed in the top 25 of the 2013 Shanghai Global ARWU Ranking.

Fifth, Canada is not keeping up on employee training. Between 2008 and 2013 the availability of research and training services declined from 10th to 18th, staff training slid from 19th to 34th, and company spending on research and development declined from 22nd to 29th.

Sixth, Canada’s youth unemployment rate is excessively high compared to other nations. Canada’s youth unemployment rate towered at 14.0 percent at the end of 2013. It was higher than America’s (13.5 percent), Australia’s (12.7 percent), Germany’s (7.9 percent) and Japan’s (6.8 percent). Youth unemployment is being compounded by youth “underemployment”; an estimated 27.7 percent of young Canadians are working in sectors unrelated to their education.

Seventh, Canada’s fiscal situation deteriorated. Between 2008-09 and 2014-15 national debt soared by a projected $176.4 billion, in part because of wasteful spending on prisons, weapons and lawsuits. The Harper government increased debt by $31,088.63 for every child under the age of fifteen. Canada now owes $108,416.96 in principal for every child under the age of fifteen. We need to reverse this trend if we are to put Canada on the path to long-term prosperity.

Eighth, Canada’s international reputation is waning. Harper’s misguided foreign policy has strained relationships with foreign investors and foreign governments. Alarmingly, the proportion of Americans, Australians, Indians, Mexicans and Brits who believe Canada’s role in the world is “mainly positive” declined in 2010. In China, the percentage of respondents who saw Canada in a positive light declined from 75 percent to 54 percent according to the BBC. We need to reverse this trend if we are to put Canada on the path to long-term prosperity.

Ninth, Canada’s trade advantage is disappearing. Over the last 37 months, Canada posted 30 trade deficits and only seven trade surpluses. Canada’s trade deficit with China alone grew from $17.33 billion in 2004 to $31.37 billion in 2012. Imports from China totaled $50.71 billion, while exports to China were only $19.35 billion. Declining export value in sectors like aerospace manufacturing and pharmaceuticals are extrapolating Canada’s trade deficit.

Now, if you subscribe to the endless stream of Conservative talking points, manipulated statistics and partisan spin you will blame these alarming trends on everyone (and everything) but the Prime Minister. The problem with that argument is obvious: Stephen Harper has been in the driver’s seat this whole time.

Don’t forget: Harper allowed 500,000 foreign workers to cut the employment line, while youth unemployment towered at 14.0 percent. He ripped up a pan-Canadian childcare strategy, in favour of an American-style prison strategy. He gave corporations $60 billion, while student debt surpassed $23 billion. And he prioritized prisons, weapons and lawsuits over educational funding, debt reduction, and scholarship programs.

The next generation has a clear choice: Stand-by as Harper leads us farther and farther down the road to decline, or stand-up and prevent Canada from going past the point of no return.

Kyle Morrow

Ponoka, AB

But hey, we got tax cuts!!!!!

[rotten42]

Regardless of who wins, I think we are looking at a minority government.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

A shift to the liberal party must mostly be coming from those who were too young to suffer the effects of previous liberal governments.
That's not to say I'm a Harper supporter at all, just simply understand what the alternative is.

I could add a 9th option:

- Grumpy old man, don't like anybody

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

When was the last good liberal government?
I mean one that didn't ruin us economically?
That is a serious question. I don't recall.

The Chretien/Martin Liberal governments from 1993-2006 balanced the budged, started paying down the national debt, lowered taxes, and were in power during a time in which Canada's economy grew (although I'm hesitant to give them 100% of the credit for that, but at least they didn't waste their good fortune of being in power during an extended bull market).

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know, the one that was in power from 1993-2005 was better economically than the CPC has been.

It's almost as if they didn't have to weather a massive global economic recession or anything...

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

It's almost as if they didn't have to weather a massive global economic recession or anything...

Oh I get it. The CPC had to deal with a recession, therefore they don't have to worry about balancing the budget or making prudent economic decisions. Let's not forget that the Liberals also faced a recession in power. Canada came out stronger, with a balanced budget and paying down debt. Surely a good fiscal conservative can acknowledge that was a better situation than where we find ourselves today, nearly 6 full years after the recession.