CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[GirlySports]

mrkajz44: the last part. Do not discuss to others except to only confirm.

I took that to mean I can't say anything until I make a decision.

[hmmhmmcamo]

Channeling my inner Timbo...this one is for you buddy.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Was off golfing today, but have now caught up. Two parter post coming up: one for the Guardians / one for general strategy.

First up, the Guardians.

Looks like this afternoon there was a lot more talk about the Guardians and the invites. I'll try my best to clear things up again, though I think we need to move off this and focus more on scummy behavior, rather than focus on these groups.

First time trying to deflect focus from the new groups, with no reason given.

First, I think Girly is getting hit a little too hard with her accusations. The invite from the Guardians instructed me not to speak of the content of this message for all will be revealed in time. I took that to mean the Guardians were simply requesting me to not say anything and there was nothing saying I absolutely could not talk in the thread before responding. Girly may have interpreted this differently. The language was vague, so different interpretation are possible. This makes me think Girly is being honest about the invite.

Defending fellow new group invitee. No real evidence given, just that you believe what someone else that was invited to the new group is saying. This is after a few players have pointed out differences in what you new groupers have been saying since your invitations.

As for the power, I too was given the one-shot ability to save myself at night. I had to pick the night which I wanted to stay safe and then I was protected for that night only. The power of a one-shot kill is way better in my opinion, and since Girly and I have both stated we received the same one shot power, I think it's likely Matt has the same power as ECF. What I find most odd is that Starseed asked about the Guardian's power, but was already a member of the Guardians? Looks like he was fishing for info without providing any.

Not sure what to make of this

Everyone who has accepted or received an invite has confirmed winning conditions do not change. I think it is safe to assume that there is no cult(s) and the winning conditions have not changed with these factions. I really think we should move on from this.

Why is it safe to assume we have nothing to worry about and move on? This is the second time this post you're trying to deflect focus from the new groups, with no reason given.

I'd like to put the Guardian / Eternal talk to bed, or at least stop it being the focal point, as I think its making it much easier for Mafia to hide. That being said, I still wonder if another invite is out there and someone is staying quiet about it.

And finally the third time in one post. I don’t doubt you want to put this to bed, seeing as you’re involved in it and it’s putting a target on you and the others.

I’m beginning to wonder if there isn’t a connection between the people that are getting these invites that they are not letting on to. Weird stuff is happening and several people are pretty quick to say “don’t worry about it.”

It’s day 2...how could you possibly just dismiss what’s happening already?

[formulate]

I disagree with Girlysports regarding posting lists of suspected town and mafia. It's basically our job to share our thoughts, or else we'd be voting blindly with only our own suspicions. Collecting lists likely won't help us find mafia right now (like someone said about low chance of any lists containing multiple or even any mafia), but it creates a trail.

For example, say hmmhmmcamo is lynched/nightkilled and flips scum. We can be pretty sure that most people with him on their scum list would be town (there could be the odd mafia who put another mafia on their list for misdirection). Or if he flips town, his list can be trusted as untainted.

Yes, mafia will attempt to use their kill(s) to create misdirection, but that's their job regardless of what the town is posting during the day.

formulate's list of suspected townies:

1. Dissentower: Has been on a GP_Matt crusade for a number of real time days. Looking back, crusaders almost always flipped town. Last game? Strombad (town) on activestick, Flameswin (town) on CBL. Legoman (town) on completely.

2. Oling: One of the more pressing players in the game. Difficult to investigate that thoroughly without slipping up.

3. Timbo: Very thorough in logic as well. This one may be just a vibe I get or perhaps that we had that Rathji brainwave...

GGG is up in the air for me as his post style is hard to nail down. He certainly thinks the game at a high level, which is almost concerning at times because I believe he'd make a great scum.

Mafia targets:

1. Vote: hmmhmmcamo: Good enough? Think day 1 got out of hand last game so doesn't want to contribute? Newsflash, it's already out of hand. The eternals/guardians have thrown everyone for a loop and this game is going to be longer as a result. Groups are certainly favoring the mafia right now as misdirection is evident. And what are hmmhmmcamo's only posts of substance about?

2. Drury: This is definitely a reach, but it's a theory I've been working on for a while.
My theory basically stems from poker, when a new player sits down at the table and runs a huge bluff a few hands in, and then proceeds to play extremely careful the rest of the game, in hopes that the rest of the table sees them as a wild gambler.

Drury posted this quite early on:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=130
Not to take anything away from his more recent contributions, but this was pretty much the climax of deep thinking. The sentence "I have no idea why a newbie and on the first day would stick their neck out like this" struck me especially. Again, it's a reach, but I thought I'd share it anyhow.

3. Girlysports, Rathji, squiggs and Baxter are all on my radar for various reasons I've thought of or read from other posters.

I composed this after getting back from a hockey game in which I was one of 3 defensemen, so I apologize if something doesn't make sense. Tomorrow I plan on being more active.

[formulate]

Also I apologize for most of my posts being so lengthy. I would prefer to most more, single thoughts, but between work where it's near impossible to post and school where I'm trying to pay attention and finish this damn degree, they usually get collected into single gigantaposts.

[hmmhmmcamo]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Vote Count:

With 19 alive, it takes 10 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 7 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (6): Drury18, Baxter Renegade, Delgar, Wood, formulate, Puxlut

Voted:
GP_Matt (7): Phantom Vote, GirlySports, East Coast Flame, Oling_Roachinen, squiggs96, dissentowner, hmmhmmcamo
hmmhmmcamo (6): Rathji, starseed, Timbo, Hockeyguy15, mrkajz44, GP_Matt
GirlySports (1): GGG

The deadline is Wednesday, October 8th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Originally Posted by formulate

1. Vote: hmmhmmcamo

So updated it’s:
Vote Count:

With 19 alive, it takes 10 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 7 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (5): Drury18, Baxter Renegade, Delgar, Wood, , Puxlut

Voted:
GP_Matt (7): GirlySports, East Coast Flame, Oling_Roachinen, squiggs96, dissentowner, hmmhmmcamo
hmmhmmcamo (7): Rathji, starseed, Timbo, Hockeyguy15, mrkajz44, GP_Matt, formulate
GirlySports (1): GGG

The deadline is Wednesday, October 8th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.


It looks like I could be the next one to go.

I have info to share that will help the town that I would like to post if that is the case. I'll be able to follow and hopefully post in the thread tomorrow so I'd suggest anyone anxious to get rid of me at this point is mafia because they know I'm town. The deadline isn't until Wednesday, so we have lots of time.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I do think there is a major drawback into everyone posting lists, I don't know if it outweighs the positive but it should be discussed.

Lists will change each day of course, but if the mafia see a bunch of people putting Player X as suspicious, they aren't going to 'waste' a night kill on Player X. Likewise, if a bunch of posters are putting a mafia member on their town list they probably wont be killing those players. And then we get into a whole bunch of metagame where we have to decide would the mafia be so bold as to kill people mentioning them as suspicious etc.

So yes, if someone reveals town we know they believe their list, but that doesn't mean the mafia isn't using it to their advantage either and could even help them plan the next couple days.

My lists wont really come as a surprise but I can see the merit for others to want to keep the mafia guessing.

My suspicious list:

• GP_Matt and mrkajz44 - If one of them reveal mafia, I think the other should be looked at extremely close. If GP_Matt were to flip town, my suspicion on mrkajz44 would be heavily lessened.
• Delgar - Sorry Delgar if you are town, but with how the day started and so much to discuss I just can't see the "Mario and DK died, let's kill Bowser" logic as anything but misdirection.
• Squiggs96 - Seemed to be on radars yesterday, now he's off of them thanks in part to all the cult talk and is set up that he can lay low.

Also those who went for the quick hammer yesterday.

My town list:

• East Coast Flame - I believe he's the doctor.
• Starseed - Pretty forthcoming with the Guardians, didn't want the hammer to drop on RatherDashing.
• Puxlut - Maybe not so much that I think she's town, but just that she's not on my radar.

Next couple days my posting time may be limited. I wont be inactive, just might not be posting as much as usual.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

First, I think Girly is getting hit a little too hard with her accusations. The invite from the Guardians instructed me not to speak of the content of this message for all will be revealed in time. I took that to mean the Guardians were simply requesting me to not say anything and there was nothing saying I absolutely could not talk in the thread before responding. Girly may have interpreted this differently. The language was vague, so different interpretation are possible. This makes me think Girly is being honest about the invite.

As for the power, I too was given the one-shot ability to save myself at night. I had to pick the night which I wanted to stay safe and then I was protected for that night only. The power of a one-shot kill is way better in my opinion, and since Girly and I have both stated we received the same one shot power, I think it's likely Matt has the same power as ECF. What I find most odd is that Starseed asked about the Guardian's power, but was already a member of the Guardians? Looks like he was fishing for info without providing any.

I was thinking that it would be safe for you two to talk about the power, as neither you nor GS have it. I am not going to reveal details just yet about my one-shot power, as I accepted it.

The wording was indeed vague, and I think it was also altered. Mazrim followed up with a second PM to say that the post was supposed to mention that I had 24 hours to decide. I assume you two had that included in your original message? Also, I did not see the message Girly received:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

mrkajz44: the last part. Do not discuss to others except to only confirm.

I took that to mean I can't say anything until I make a decision.

I think this was added into the message because the group members were revealing a lot before GS received the invite.


I am having difficulty finding people that I strongly suspect as mafia. My list keeps changing. However, I will work on a list while en route to work, as I am already running late. (eastern time zone)

I would preface the list by saying that it is a snapshot, and could even flip with a seemingly small piece of info. More later.

[Timbo]

I'm on my phone all day from now until 7 pm so I will be brief.

Suspected Mafia
Hmmhmmcamo, GirlySports, Delgar (worst fear and case scenario)

Townie list possible
Oling_Roachanen,ECF,Hockeyguy15

Everyone else is in the grey area and could be moved up or down. No offence.

[starseed]

Suspected Mafia
-hmmhmmcamo : gets called out for inactivity, posts a lot once the heat is on. Not much substance to posts prior to getting called out. Bad town suggestions early, then seems less clueless now?

-HG15 : seems much different. Less activity scum hunting than last game. Something seems off about him

-squiggs/Baxter : cofR type inactivity

Town:
ECF- maybe I am falling for the deception? I am heavily leaning that he is telling the truth

-rathji : no idea. Just a feeling. I want to know who he targeted last night.

-GGG : I could be completely wrong about him, but he voted against the bizaro train when it was in full motion. Mind you, if he were mafia, he would know biz would flip town, which would add to his credibility late in the game. Maybe he killed biz to build that credibility? But I am leaning to those thoughts being paranoia. My gut is saying town. I think we need townies to go against the mob when they feel the mob is on the wrong track.

[Hockeyguy15]

Suspision list

hmmhmmcamo/squiggs/Baxter - Too much inactivity, we shouldn't have to keep calling them out to contribute.

GGG - This is strictly because of wanting to lynch the "doctor". We can't afford to lose the doctor this early if ECF is telling the truth.

Possible town

Timbo - Seems like he is thinking things through instead of jumping to conclusions.

GP_Matt - I still believe he is town regardless of joining the cult. I don't believe a mafia member would have put his neck out early on like that.

Wood - Earlier on I was wondering about him but at the moment I tend to believe he is town. Similar to Timbo he seems like he is really trying to think things out.

[Hockeyguy15]

Oh and I forgot to add ECF to the possible town list. I think it's too early in the game for a doctor bluff so I am chosing to believe him for now.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by starseed

Suspected Mafia
-hmmhmmcamo : gets called out for inactivity, posts a lot once the heat is on. Not much substance to posts prior to getting called out. Bad town suggestions early, then seems less clueless now?

-HG15 : seems much different. Less activity scum hunting than last game. Something seems off about him

-squiggs/Baxter : cofR type inactivity

Town:
ECF- maybe I am falling for the deception? I am heavily leaning that he is telling the truth

-rathji : no idea. Just a feeling. I want to know who he targeted last night.

-GGG : I could be completely wrong about him, but he voted against the bizaro train when it was in full motion. Mind you, if he were mafia, he would know biz would flip town, which would add to his credibility late in the game. Maybe he killed biz to build that credibility? But I am leaning to those thoughts being paranoia. My gut is saying town. I think we need townies to go against the mob when they feel the mob is on the wrong track.

I have never said I have a night action, that I have a night action that targets someone, or if I used a night action. I don't think I implied that I used one, but in case I did, I will clarify: I did not use any night action on Night 1.

Whatever ability was used on me, redirected my night action (which was nothing) to GP_Matt.

As for my suspects list.

Mafia
hmmhmmcamo: Inactive and strange responses once he started getting called out for it during Day 2.

The others I only have a hunch on and would like to let them hang themselves a bit more before I go into any more detail, other than saying they exist on a couple lists here already, so I am not worried about my suspicions dying with me if I get hit at night.

Townie

Forumlate and Timbo top my current list, based almost entirely on the redirect night action explanation I made earlier, which I won't rehash here.

[Rathji]

Forgot about this until I read HG post,

Mafia: GGG - Due to wanting to lynch Doctor. Its a terrible move, even if he thinks that he is false claiming. The mafia has to kill him, if they don't' they are giving up any advantage they could gain from the reveal. Would be foolish for them to do.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I am here.

I logged in to check the thread when I got home, and got sucked into working for a couple hours so just catching up now.

So, I wanted to figure out the best way to say this and make sure I had as much info as possible before I posted, but my night action (which I won't specify what it was, or if I have an ability that I can even use as a night action) was redirected to GP_Matt last night.

I looked at the Wiki and it is quite likely that this is the result of a Role Manipulator, as no other group of roles.

There are really three options here, I will lay them out here in my sleep deprived state to have you all check my logic:

1) GP_Matt redirected my ability to himself, thinking it might save himself. I don't know that this is very likely, since I think far more targeted abilities will screw with/kill a person than help them.

2) A mafia member, knowing I wasn't mafia, wanted my ability to go to GP_Matt. I can't figure out why they might do this, other than if they thought I might be a vigilante and try and force a town kill as the second night kill. This is extremely unlikely, simply because short of killing GP_Matt, I don't see how this action would make sense. I makes me wonder of this role would ever be assigned to a mafia player, as it seems like it would be under powered.

3) A Townie thought I was Mafia, and was hoping to make me kill/be a detriment to someone they suspected of being mafia. There were a few people who at least had me somewhere on their list of suspects. This would be a pretty smart move, and makes a lot of sense.

So if someone wants to verify my logic, I would welcome anything I missed, but for now I am going to conclude that #3 is far more likely. Once I realized this, I debated posting it, as it narrows down a role to the few people who thought I was mafia. This also means that the people who thought I was mafia had a higher than likely chance of being town. This list includes Timbo and formlate, as best I can tell, but I am literally faling asleep as I scroll through the thread to try and confirm. At any rate, they were the ones who made the biggest stink, and one of them even continued onto today.

I am putting both of them in my likely town category.

Originally Posted by Rathji

I have never said I have a night action, that I have a night action that targets someone, or if I used a night action. I don't think I implied that I used one, but in case I did, I will clarify: I did not use any night action on Night 1.

Whatever ability was used on me, redirected my night action (which was nothing) to GP_Matt.

Sorry Rathji but I am confused here. How can you not have an ability, yet your ability was redirected at Matt?

[Hockeyguy15]

Sorry, night action/ability are the same thing in my books.

[Wood]

I keep going back and forth on GGG, I'm not sure what list I'd have him on right now

As for town, I have Dissentowner, Oling, puxlut and ECF at the top. If ECF survives the night though I think we need to kill him, he could be lying about the doctor role (highly doubtful)

For mafia, hmmhmmcamo/squiggs/Baxter are all in the same boat for me. I'm guessing at least 1 of them has to be mafia. After those 3 I've been mostly focused on Delgar and Girlysports. I'm going to lay off the gaurdians/eternals talk until day 3 when we hopefully know more, I think I might be building a case against girly in my head based on very little actual knowledge

[formulate]

I believe what he is saying is he was notified that someone used an their action (bus driver or something similar) to redirect whatever his action was (nothing) to GP_Matt. I guess part of the ability is that the owner of the redirected action is notified, regardless of actually using an action. Kind of strange, but I guess Rathji has no reason to lie about something as small as a redirection.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Sorry Rathji but I am confused here. How can you not have an ability, yet your ability was redirected at Matt?

I received a message that it was redirected to GP_Matt. The fact that my night action was nothing was apparently not relevant to that ability redirection.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I received a message that it was redirected to GP_Matt. The fact that my night action was nothing was apparently not relevant to that ability redirection.

I think the issue was that I read your original post as you having a night action, and then you said you had no action and it threw me for a loop.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I think the issue was that I read your original post as you having a night action, and then you said you had no action and it threw me for a loop.

Yeah, I worded it vaguely to try and avoid indicating if a had a night action or not, but it just caused confusion