CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[mrkajz44]

Okay, here's a summary of my thoughts and opinions:

I strongly believe that the Eternals / Guardians are not cults. My reading of how cults work on the wiki lead me to believe they keep the cult a secret, so having their name associated with these groups in the first post doesn't add up to me. Also, we already have 3 "members" already on day 2. That's going to eat up the players too quickly.

As for the option of joining those groups, it does sound very 'blackmail' like. It appears 100% of the offers have been accepted. Also, all three say they don't know the benefit to the group. Therefore, either they are all lying about the benefits, or the punishment for not joining must be large. Therefore, the plan to lynch the next member of the group is likely a bad idea as it will put the next invitee in a real rough spot.

What has confused me so far in catching up is the great distrust to Matt. Once RD flipped town, suspicions on Matt relate only to him being a member of the Eternals. For some reason, he is being attacked the most for this membership and his vague responses. But all of the group members have generally corroborated his story and the new members are just as vague.

So how did the Matt vote get started? First by GirlySports, followed quickly by ECF. I'm having a hard time quoting posts from pages ago, so I am just cutting and pasting.

GirlySports:
"Starseed and GGG wanting to give RD a chance and voting for GP_Matt makes sense

GP_Matt wanting to give RD a chance and voting for RD makes no sense

And seeing that Starseed is Guardian and GP_Matt is Eternal..

Vote
GP_Matt"

To be honest, I re-read this about 10 times and still can't quite follow the logic there. Really odd vote. I have been suspicious of Girly most of the game so far, and this just pushes it further.

ECF:
"Everything GP_Matt does to me seems rotten. Way too many vague and half responses.

I think if we get a flip for GP, this might tell us a lot, including maybe something about this eternal thing. Because GP sure as hell isn't telling us about it.

Vote: GP_Matt"

So ECF's vote against Matt is based on the fact that he is an Eternal and is being vague about it. Okay, I could buy that. But now ECF is also an Eternal, is also extremely vague about it, and yet he STILL has his vote of Matt. What? That makes no sense.

Thus, I don't think ECF's vote against Matt was due to the Eternals, it was another reason - he's scum and knows the momentum against Matt would be easy to build once Girly had the vote down.

Vote: East Coast Flame

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I have to teach a class all day tomorrow (Lifesaving Officials...fun!) so I will be limited to my lunch break. Please, no big reveals before 4 and no lynching! I don't want to miss the MOT thread.
PS I'm still really confused.
PPS where's Rathji?

I am here.

I logged in to check the thread when I got home, and got sucked into working for a couple hours so just catching up now.

So, I wanted to figure out the best way to say this and make sure I had as much info as possible before I posted, but my night action (which I won't specify what it was, or if I have an ability that I can even use as a night action) was redirected to GP_Matt last night.

I looked at the Wiki and it is quite likely that this is the result of a Role Manipulator, as no other group of roles.

There are really three options here, I will lay them out here in my sleep deprived state to have you all check my logic:

1) GP_Matt redirected my ability to himself, thinking it might save himself. I don't know that this is very likely, since I think far more targeted abilities will screw with/kill a person than help them.

2) A mafia member, knowing I wasn't mafia, wanted my ability to go to GP_Matt. I can't figure out why they might do this, other than if they thought I might be a vigilante and try and force a town kill as the second night kill. This is extremely unlikely, simply because short of killing GP_Matt, I don't see how this action would make sense. I makes me wonder of this role would ever be assigned to a mafia player, as it seems like it would be under powered.

3) A Townie thought I was Mafia, and was hoping to make me kill/be a detriment to someone they suspected of being mafia. There were a few people who at least had me somewhere on their list of suspects. This would be a pretty smart move, and makes a lot of sense.

So if someone wants to verify my logic, I would welcome anything I missed, but for now I am going to conclude that #3 is far more likely. Once I realized this, I debated posting it, as it narrows down a role to the few people who thought I was mafia. This also means that the people who thought I was mafia had a higher than likely chance of being town. This list includes Timbo and formlate, as best I can tell, but I am literally faling asleep as I scroll through the thread to try and confirm. At any rate, they were the ones who made the biggest stink, and one of them even continued onto today.

I am putting both of them in my likely town category.

[Rathji]

As for my vote, I mostly skimmed the thread to get caught up, so I dont have any good insights other than the ones I just posted.

I think it has it be one of the 'cult' people though, just to gain some more info. I can't really process anything else at this point, will see if I can gather more in the morning.

One item of note: I am participating in a MTG event with some friends tomorrow from about noon onwards, so I won't be in the thread at all, to read or post, until well past midnight

[starseed]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Okay, here's a summary of my thoughts and opinions:

I strongly believe that the Eternals / Guardians are not cults. My reading of how cults work on the wiki lead me to believe they keep the cult a secret, so having their name associated with these groups in the first post doesn't add up to me. Also, we already have 3 "members" already on day 2. That's going to eat up the players too quickly.

As for the option of joining those groups, it does sound very 'blackmail' like. It appears 100% of the offers have been accepted. Also, all three say they don't know the benefit to the group. Therefore, either they are all lying about the benefits, or the punishment for not joining must be large. Therefore, the plan to lynch the next member of the group is likely a bad idea as it will put the next invitee in a real rough spot.

It would be completely unbalanced, and over too quickly if this were a case of 2 cults vs town vs mafia. I dont know what Mazrim has cooked up, but I know my allegiance is still with the town. These groups can recruit twice as fast as the town can lynch.

Also, I was not blackmailed into becoming a member. It was a choice, and I am not going to lay all the cards on the table. We are not at the stage where we can make stone soup.

What has confused me so far in catching up is the great distrust to Matt. Once RD flipped town, suspicions on Matt relate only to him being a member of the Eternals. For some reason, he is being attacked the most for this membership and his vague responses. But all of the group members have generally corroborated his story and the new members are just as vague.

I was very suspicious, but I still did not immediately assume he was anti-town. Now that I have been approached, I understand why he was less forthcoming, and I also understand that this may be a bit of a red herring. His other posts have me leaning towards suspecting him of being mafia, but he is not at the top of my list.

So how did the Matt vote get started? First by GirlySports, followed quickly by ECF. I'm having a hard time quoting posts from pages ago, so I am just cutting and pasting.

GirlySports:
"Starseed and GGG wanting to give RD a chance and voting for GP_Matt makes sense

GP_Matt wanting to give RD a chance and voting for RD makes no sense

And seeing that Starseed is Guardian and GP_Matt is Eternal..

Vote
GP_Matt"

To be honest, I re-read this about 10 times and still can't quite follow the logic there. Really odd vote. I have been suspicious of Girly most of the game so far, and this just pushes it further.

This post actually pulled me back a bit, it was the rest of her body of work that caused me to vote for her (and also the fact that she was in on the bizaro pileon and hammered RD). What I see her saying here is that GGG and I backed our words with actions, voted for the second candidate so as to give time for RD to make a death post/reveal. GP voted for RD and contributed to the votes necessary to drop the hammer hours before the deadline. Mind you, she was the one to drop the hammer. She was probably more guilty of the crime she accused GP Matt of.

ECF:
"Everything GP_Matt does to me seems rotten. Way too many vague and half responses.

I think if we get a flip for GP, this might tell us a lot, including maybe something about this eternal thing. Because GP sure as hell isn't telling us about it.

Vote: GP_Matt"

So ECF's vote against Matt is based on the fact that he is an Eternal and is being vague about it. Okay, I could buy that. But now ECF is also an Eternal, is also extremely vague about it, and yet he STILL has his vote of Matt. What? That makes no sense.

Thus, I don't think ECF's vote against Matt was due to the Eternals, it was another reason - he's scum and knows the momentum against Matt would be easy to build once Girly had the vote down.

Vote: East Coast Flame

Good point. There are some bizarre holes in his logic here, and I do have him on my list. However, there is a possibility that he is simply trying to avoid supporting the perception that joining these new groups is equal to changing your alignment. So he is keeping his vote on GP Matt despite the basis of his argument evaporating.

[dissentowner]

So basically both of these new groups members, Eternals and Guardians, re claiming they ar on the side of light. So I am supposed to believe it was set up for 3 factions against the scum? Not a chance, it would be too easy. I am not ok with the fact all these characters that joined these groups refuse to state why. I am starting to think there are four groups trying to win this game. It has been suggested that there are both mafia and town in these groups which means if one of those groups wins then the side of light cannot. Something is really rotten here...

[GGG]

So ECF as the second eternal and third group joiner may be mafia, now that there is some agreement it isn't alignment based it seems like a good place to hide. I went to check ECFs post count thinking he would be one of the low counts as I really don't remember anything he said this game standing out. It turns out he was the 4th highest count. Posting and saying nothing is a mafia trademark. So I decided to go through his posts from the first day. One thing I think we should do is not lynch because someone is in the cult. We can't win if it is a normal cult. Anyone we lynch needs to appear as scum.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Newbie question time: Not sure if I missed this but do we know how many town vs how many mafia there are? Or how many special roles like cops or doctors are? Or is this kept secret on purpose?

please dont kill me

First post asks questions clearly answered in the kick off post. Mafia trait to ask questions to appear active

Next few posts just talk about how do you go random and giving lots of time.
Then late add to the Bizaro train without voting for him (no record)

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Makes sense to me. Even if they are town, inactive posters don't help much.

I'll wait but if we don't hear anything by tomorrow I'll vote bizzaro.

ECF then votes for me based on Durys18s reasoning rather than his own. (A note here one of the things that cast suspicion on me was I tried to move the vote off of Bizaro who flipped town)

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Drurys post made sense to me. You've changed course a couple times and your post to vote for Oling actually made me stop and say "huh"? Everything up till then made sense to me, but your course change seemed strange and it was quite the reach. I mentioned I didn't trust a coin flip or whatever before, and your explanation to me sounded like you were trying to "randomly" land on Oling.

Like I said before, I don't know if your scum or not but you are trying way too hard and throwing way too much confusion out there for day one.

After this and people leaving Bizaro he goes back to inactive on Baxter, then identifies all of the options for GP_matt.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I agree with everyone else. One of GP or RD needs to go, as it would tell us the same thing and we might as well keep the one who is actually posting.

Unvote

Vote: RatherDashing

This seems to be what most of ECFs post are agreement with others.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

So we wait until tonight, and then what? He says something and gives the opportunity for scum to jump off and then we sitting there with our thumb up our asses and aren't able to regroup and vote for someone else before the deadline.

Then he advocates for a quick lynch something that is always anti town.

I have to go through girly sports posts as well as she has been suspicious as well. Her and ECF seem to be on the same page.

[GGG]

So Dury18 kicked off the what are the consequences for joining discussion and Matt followed with this.

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

We could request as a group that the next person to receive an invite turns it down and reports it back to the group.

At the moment I am regretting accepting it because it seems to be a huge distraction.

No mention of the "powerless" consequence of not joining.


ECF posts this though not in response to the consequences of joking discussion

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

GP_Matt and I don't have a way of speaking with each other outside of this thread. I said earlier that joining this group did not change how I felt about GP_Matt

I thought of the negative association that would come with joining the same group as someone who generally has a negative standing in this game and weighed that into my decision and decided that joining would still be beneficial. As I said before, I think a combination of scum and town will make up this group as they are neither good or evil.

Where is the talk of the consequence of not joining.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

There is a punishment for not accepting. Not sure what it is though.

Also if I rejected, the offer would be made to someone else and I didn't want it falling into the wrong hands.

I don't think the "leader" knows the affiliations of people in the game.

Finally 6:15 two hrs after the original talk of not joining started ECF responds with a soft punishment. (Did they have time to talk)?

Originally Posted by starseed

I must have had a much different message. There was no threat given to me. It was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text.

I also was not told that it would be offered to someone else.

Starseed the states his group had no consequences and was unthreatening.

Originally Posted by starseed

I must have had a much different message. There was no threat given to me. It was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text.

I also was not told that it would be offered to someone else.

Matt finally discusses consequences. This is now 3hrs after this started.

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

It said that if I refuse or expose it they will make the offer to someone else and I will become a powerless individual.

The whole message spoke of power though so I am not sure if they meant powerless as in I would be just another cog in the wheel or if they meant I would have my own power removed.

Why did it take so long for Matt and ECF to identify the consequence of joining when the town has been asking them why they joined for an entire day. Matt didn't identify the consequence when he first suggested maybe someone should decline. Lying and misleading is antitown

I don't want to vote for someone because they are in a cult instead we should focus on anti town behaviour. ECF tops the list for me.

unvote
vote eastcoastflame

[GGG]

It is very important today that we give the person about to be lynched time to talk.

No quick hammers, and we should have a specified hammer time agreed to so we can all get in the MOT chat.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

It is very important today that we give the person about to be lynched time to talk.

No quick hammers, and we should have a specified hammer time agreed to so we can all get in the MOT chat.

Cannot hammer until 10pm Sunday. Unless you meant today as in the whole Day 2 which can go til Wednesday.

[Wood]

ECFs posting style has been a lot like UCB last game. He played the mafia role as well as anyone could, so it's a good guy to try and imitate

Ask questions, even if there's already an answer. Post a lot to stay near the top in the post count without saying too much. Another thing UCB did very well was side with townies to appear on their side after a vote, but would never lead a charge against a mafia member. Could ECF be doing the same thing with his middle vote on GP_Matt?

The biggest thing for me with ECF is how he said there's a punishment for refusing to join a group. When Matt joined the group, he never said anything about a downside. He never said anything about a punishment until after ECF said so. Starseed, while in a different group, has said there was no threat of punishment if he didn't join

I don't think ECFs and Matts stories add up, so I'd like to see one of them go before the group gets any bigger or has any power

Unvote
Vote:EastCoastFlame

[GirlySports]

I have rejected application to the Guardians. Nothing has happened to me yet that I know of. I will echo Starseed's message that I was not threatened in any way, was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text and did not mention giving it to anyone else.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I have rejected application to the Guardians. Nothing has happened to me yet that I know of. I will echo Starseed's message that I was not threatened in any way, was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text and did not mention giving it to anyone else.

Well this is interesting. Are both groups able to recruit during the day? Starseed what time did your msg from Mazrim come when you got your offer.

[starseed]

4:43 pm on Wednesday. I assumed it was during the night phase, but that would have been minutes before night hit. It could have been sent just before the hammer dropped.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by starseed

4:43 pm on Wednesday. I assumed it was during the night phase, but that would have been minutes before night hit. It could have been sent just before the hammer dropped.

If it goes PM to Mazrim, Mazrim to you then it definately was sent pre-hammer.


So both groups recruit in the day.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I have rejected application to the Guardians. Nothing has happened to me yet that I know of. I will echo Starseed's message that I was not threatened in any way, was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text and did not mention giving it to anyone else.

When did you get your invite?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

When did you get your invite?

Late last night, already well into Day 2.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Rathji

So, I wanted to figure out the best way to say this and make sure I had as much info as possible before I posted, but my night action (which I won't specify what it was, or if I have an ability that I can even use as a night action) was redirected to GP_Matt last night.

I looked at the Wiki and it is quite likely that this is the result of a Role Manipulator, as no other group of roles.

There are really three options here, I will lay them out here in my sleep deprived state to have you all check my logic:

1) GP_Matt redirected my ability to himself, thinking it might save himself. I don't know that this is very likely, since I think far more targeted abilities will screw with/kill a person than help them.

2) A mafia member, knowing I wasn't mafia, wanted my ability to go to GP_Matt. I can't figure out why they might do this, other than if they thought I might be a vigilante and try and force a town kill as the second night kill. This is extremely unlikely, simply because short of killing GP_Matt, I don't see how this action would make sense. I makes me wonder of this role would ever be assigned to a mafia player, as it seems like it would be under powered.

3) A Townie thought I was Mafia, and was hoping to make me kill/be a detriment to someone they suspected of being mafia. There were a few people who at least had me somewhere on their list of suspects. This would be a pretty smart move, and makes a lot of sense.

So if someone wants to verify my logic, I would welcome anything I missed, but for now I am going to conclude that #3 is far more likely. Once I realized this, I debated posting it, as it narrows down a role to the few people who thought I was mafia. This also means that the people who thought I was mafia had a higher than likely chance of being town. This list includes Timbo and formlate, as best I can tell, but I am literally faling asleep as I scroll through the thread to try and confirm. At any rate, they were the ones who made the biggest stink, and one of them even continued onto today.

I am putting both of them in my likely town category.

Surprised no one is talking about this yet - I'll get it started.

I agree option 1 is quite unlikely and should not be considered. Option 2 is a bit more likely, but since Matt has been a large target this whole time, it doesn't really make sense either. I further agree that option 3 is the most likely of the ones you listed.

However, there is an option 4 Rathji did not consider. A townie, thinking Rathji was a townie, redirected the action to Matt, thinking Matt was mafia. For me, this makes the most sense. There was a lot of distrust towards Matt near the end of day 1, and likely some anger after RD flipped town, so it would make a lot of sense for a townie to re-direct the power to Matt to kill / expose him in some way. I do realize this is very similar to Rathji's option 3, but I don't think a townie would have to assume Rathji was mafia in order to re-direct his power on to Matt.

All in all, I'm not sure how much this post helps us with the vague information provided. I agree Rathji's power should be kept secret, but without us knowing the power, all we really know now is that there is likely a role manipulator out there. Makes me wonder if the post was meant to help us, or just a long winded way of making us feel more comfortable with two people as part of the light. (Or Rathji was just sleepy and thought the post would have been helpful).

I'd like to hear other's thoughts on this.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Cannot hammer until 10pm Sunday. Unless you meant today as in the whole Day 2 which can go til Wednesday.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Saving lives? phhhtttt
Don't worry Bowser, no hammer allowed until Sunday night.

Originally Posted by Mazrim

The deadline is Wednesday, October 8th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Saturday, October 4th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Girly - Hammer can start on Saturday - you've mis-quoted twice saying it cannot fall until Sunday.

Also, just saw the Girly turned down the invite to the Guardians with no real ill consequences. Looking back at my post, I am now changing my mind a bit on these new factions. I was under the impression it was a 'blackmail' invitation, but it looks like it was only ECF that told this story. However, the entry into the Guardians may be (and likely is) different from the Eternals. Hard to say, but it appears ECF is alone in his story for now.

I'm keeping my vote on ECF.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Girly - Hammer can start on Saturday - you've mis-quoted twice saying it cannot fall until Sunday.

Also, just saw the Girly turned down the invite to the Guardians with no real ill consequences. Looking back at my post, I am now changing my mind a bit on these new factions. I was under the impression it was a 'blackmail' invitation, but it looks like it was only ECF that told this story. However, the entry into the Guardians may be (and likely is) different from the Eternals. Hard to say, but it appears ECF is alone in his story for now.

I'm keeping my vote on ECF.

See my post above on how the blackmail on the eternals went down. Real suspicious how GP and ECF brought it up.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I have rejected application to the Guardians. Nothing has happened to me yet that I know of. I will echo Starseed's message that I was not threatened in any way, was loaded with shed light on the darkness type flavor text and did not mention giving it to anyone else.

By doing this I think you may have strengthened the possibility of a lynch of one of the three ECF and GP_Matt and starseed who oddly enough thanked you for not joining the group he is affiliated with. The brings me to the conclusion of...WTF

Lynching one of the 3 might be our only option to find out anything about these factions.

Yet I wonder if they truly were shedding light on darkness would a Mafia Scum join? If one of these three flips townie I see a big target painted on your back.

Either way it was a ballsy move.