Russia invades Ukraine

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I think if I had to make a prediction I don't see Russia losing any ground/territory given they've flipped their economy into a war economy now. And if the west continues to supply Ukraine just enough to maintain their current position (which has basically been a draw), I don't imagine the situation changing. Ukrainians continue to die, fighting for their country, but don't gain any ground, Russians also die, but don't gain any ground, thr west continues to profit. If this is what ends up happening, I'd prefer just ending it now, even if that includes Russia keeping whatever they've gained in the conflict. Not ideal, not great, but better than the scenario where if they continue, and the only change is more deaths and no clear winner.

You seem to labour under the misapprehension that if Russia wins the war they won't do what Russia always does, has done for 400 years or more, ethnically cleanse Ukraine, ship millions of Ukrainians east of the Urals into Siberia where 50% or more will die in a few years of starvation, more Ukrainians will die as a result of surrendering than would ever die in a long grinding war, why do you think they are fighting?

Ukrainians know better than most what the cost of surrender will be, the price will be the same one they paid in the 1930 to 1933, another Holdomor, the men will be taken, forcibly enrolled in the army or sent east to the labour camps, none will ever return, the young women sent east also, the old and infirm will starve, Ukraine will be utterly depopulated in order to pacify it, the land given to Russians, this is what Russia always does.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

A lot of war analysts predict that Russia can only maintain this strategy until late 2025 or early 2026. It's still a long time though, especially as Russia ramps up the psychological attacks. Sadly, I don't think we've seen the worst yet. Russia knows they are on the clock now.

Yeah, 2 years seems to be the most typical prediction. Personally I'm leaning towards shorter predictions, I think there's a real chance that Russia's economy can't take that much more without starting to go down a spiral that destroys the populations willingness to continue the war.

To me, it's more like 50/50 that Russia doesn't last another six months, and 50/50 for every six months after that. All they need is one bug bump they weren't prepared for and it all starts coming down. While you can't predict surprises, surprises still happen all the time.

(Although obviously they could also get a windfall from somewhere. Who knows.)

[Itse]

...to elaborate why I'm (sort of, although not really) out of line with the consensus opinion:

While Russia is unlikely to completely collapse economically, the reality is that this war was never super popular in Russia. Despite all the propaganda, the amount of actual enthusiasm has been obviously pretty low. People don't hate it (the way they obviously should), but to me it looks like most people also don't think the war is super necessary. I don't think Russians for the most part see the war in Ukraine as some kind of an existential battle the way Putin obviously wants them to see it, the kind that would justify enormous economical hardships.

It's basically that I think a combination of factors are kind of a bigger problem for Putin than either one is individually.

Russians aren't yet hating the war enough to stand up to the regime, and the economy isn't bad enough to completely collapse yet to a point where they can't continue the war, but I don't think Russians just care enough about the war to take the kinds of economic hardships for example Ukrainians are probably willing to tolerate, or what countries were willing to tolerate during the World Wars.

To me Putins desperation to get results now no matter the military cost speaks of the fact that he knows he's short on time, that there just isn't enough time to do slow methodical attacks that his army is better suited for and which would keep the casualties at a lower level. He doesn't just want battlefield victories, I think he needs them.

There are also a lot of signs that Putin is very worried about the wars popularity inside Russia. The recent ban Russia has put on gasoline exports (which brings down the price of gasoline inside Russia, but obviously hurts both the state economy and the oil companies) is to me a clear sign that he is already in some ways desperate to please people so they won't turn on him.

His regime isn't a house of cards, but I don't think it's got a very solid foundation either.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Itse

Yeah, 2 years seems to be the most typical prediction. Personally I'm leaning towards shorter predictions, I think there's a real chance that Russia's economy can't take that much more without starting to go down a spiral that destroys the populations willingness to continue the war.

To me, it's more like 50/50 that Russia doesn't last another six months, and 50/50 for every six months after that. All they need is one bug bump they weren't prepared for and it all starts coming down. While you can't predict surprises, surprises still happen all the time.

(Although obviously they could also get a windfall from somewhere. Who knows.)

I think it comes down to the US election, a Trump win might seal Ukraine's fate but if Biden wins I suspect he will take the house with him, Trump after all will steal most of the GOP's campaign money so most of those congressmen will be paying for their ads with can and bottle returns, Biden back with a majority in the House turns the taps back on big time and that's the end for Russia

[Itse]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think it comes down to the US election, a Trump win might seal Ukraine's fate but if Biden wins I suspect he will take the house with him, Trump after all will steal most of the GOP's campaign money so most of those congressmen will be paying for their ads with can and bottle returns, Biden back with a majority in the House turns the taps back on big time and that's the end for Russia

Yeah, that could be a pivotal moment. That said, we are currently one bad health episode away from that election never happening. What are the odds of a 77-year old or an 81-year old highly stressed man having some kind of a health crisis? The odds of something happening to one or the other can't be that small.

(Not necessarily something lethal, but something embarrassing would be enough.)

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

...to elaborate why I'm (sort of, although not really) out of line with the consensus opinion:

While Russia is unlikely to completely collapse economically, the reality is that this war was never super popular in Russia. Despite all the propaganda, the amount of actual enthusiasm has been obviously pretty low. People don't hate it (the way they obviously should), but to me it looks like most people also don't think the war is super necessary. I don't think Russians for the most part see the war in Ukraine as some kind of an existential battle the way Putin obviously wants them to see it, the kind that would justify enormous economical hardships.

It's basically that I think a combination of factors are kind of a bigger problem for Putin than either one is individually.

Russians aren't yet hating the war enough to stand up to the regime, and the economy isn't bad enough to completely collapse yet to a point where they can't continue the war, but I don't think Russians just care enough about the war to take the kinds of economic hardships for example Ukrainians are probably willing to tolerate, or what countries were willing to tolerate during the World Wars.

To me Putins desperation to get results now no matter the military cost speaks of the fact that he knows he's short on time, that there just isn't enough time to do slow methodical attacks that his army is better suited for and which would keep the casualties at a lower level. He doesn't just want battlefield victories, I think he needs them.

There are also a lot of signs that Putin is very worried about the wars popularity inside Russia. The recent ban Russia has put on gasoline exports (which brings down the price of gasoline inside Russia, but obviously hurts both the state economy and the oil companies) is to me a clear sign that he is already in some ways desperate to please people so they won't turn on him.

His regime isn't a house of cards, but I don't think it's got a very solid foundation either.

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be hard pressed to hold out six months without a significant influx of troops, weapons and particularly ammunition. Russia is starting to make steady gains despite their horrific losses and Ukraine doesn't have the artillery to stop them. I think it's no coincidence that Macron and others are talking about potential intervention.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Unfortunately, Ukraine will be hard pressed to hold out six months without a significant influx of troops, weapons and particularly ammunition. Russia is starting to make steady gains despite their horrific losses and Ukraine doesn't have the artillery to stop them. I think it's no coincidence that Macron and others are talking about potential intervention.

Yeah, it's shaping up to be a rough year.

However, as we've already seen, the prospect of Ukraine possibly losing the war has already stirred quite a lot of reactions from the West, and we'll see how that all pans out.

It's also worth noting that currently, the lines are still moving at a very, very slow pace, and that the exact position of the battlelines isn't actually super important (except of course for the people who might be living in that area).

[CaptainCrunch]

I hold out a lot of hope for Ukraine, but I also said a long time ago that the longer this was went the more the weight and force calculations would go against Ukraine.

Right now we're seeing that. The Russians might be poorly trained, and have massive equipment problems, but they've got more of both young men and equipment, and the Russians got smart when they went to a static defense and blunted the Ukrainian military.

With the what you could cause pause in Western Support in terms of equipment and ammo, the Ukrainians are losing a lot of the leading edge equipment that they got at the start of the war, and they've lost a lot of young men and woman that they don't really have the population to replace.

Right now, Ukraine has lost the initiative and even with new equipment and ammo coming in will it be enough for them to set up a counter offence? Probably not, and if Nato is unwilling to commit combat troops on the ground, Ukraine is going to slowly bleed to death.

Right now we're seeing the lines move slowly, and that's to be expected as Russia punches and probes the lines to find the weakness. If this is their typical tactic, they'll look to breech a small corridor and move their reserves of fresher troops and fresher equipment through that breech to go after supply lines and critical infrastructure.

Right now one of the game changers is the F-16's as Ukraine's airforce has been battered, but the soonest they'll get there is July and in relatively small numbers.

[Fuzzy14]

You seem to labour under the misapprehension

This has always been my favourite respectful burn.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy14

This has always been my favourite respectful burn.

I used to lead with 'Did the best part of you dribble down the inside of your mothers leg while she was making change for the 5 spot she charged?' but I found that a bit too confrontational

[TKB]

Originally Posted by Itse

Yeah, that could be a pivotal moment. That said, we are currently one bad health episode away from that election never happening. What are the odds of a 77-year old or an 81-year old highly stressed man having some kind of a health crisis? The odds of something happening to one or the other can't be that small.

(Not necessarily something lethal, but something embarrassing would be enough.)

I’m not even convinced Biden is still alive, the guy looks like a wax suit.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The only way the war ends "now" is if Ukraine surrenders, which means Russia fully controls their territory and the suffering of Ukrainians escalates drastically. The only way for Ukraine and it's people to survive is the total defeat of Russia, you are a complete fool or a puppet to believe anything else

Or...you know...place Putin near a conveniently unreliable Moscow window.

Make sure its high enough.

My view is...the Brothers will continue to fight each other constantly. Unless 'Dad' steps in to put a stop to it.

I do worry that the support for Ukraine will eventually wane and Russia will do what Russia does...just grind it out. And then it'll be over and the rest of the world will lose interest and that'll be that.

Back to your regularly scheduled oppression.

[Cheese]

Ukraine has launched a massive attack on Russia Drones have been striking oil depots and other targets while soldiers from LSR & RDK (units made up of Russian volunteers fighting against Putin) have poured over the border from Ukraine & are now fighting inside Russia

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767470227464368523

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767540228137341144

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767440937385390357

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767589371731947976

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767545955170050098

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767527325799735694

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767516130279670146

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767521134856016253


Russian Su-27 fighter aircraft reportedly shot down over Belgorod

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767492652105375893


Russian Il-76 in the Ivanovo Region has a burning engine. In the 2nd video you can see parts of the plane coming down.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767520253762826611


Drone attack causes a massive fire at Lukoil's NORSI oil refinery in the Nizhniy Novgorod region

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767475912302289375

https://twitter.com/user/status/1767487536769773616

[undercoverbrother]

I hope the Russians invading Russia aren't being sacrificed.

[CliffFletcher]

Unfortunately, Russia’s economy has proven far more resilient than expected. When sanctions were imposed, analysts expected Russia’s GDP to decline by 15 per cent in 2022. It declined by only 1.2 per cent. Last year, Russia’s economy actually grew faster than America’s, and it’s projected to grow by 2.6 per cent this year.

Sanctions have proved leaky, with China, India, Turkey, and the Gulf States either openly defying trade bans, or using third parties in Central Asia to get around them. Russian oil and gas revenues remain high.

Russia has achieved this by shifting domestic production towards the military. That may not be sustainable over the long term. But it doesn’t look as though the Russian economy is going to collapse in the short to mid-term (2-4 years).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ussia-economy/

[Dunnyberg]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

You seem to labour under the misapprehension that if Russia wins the war they won't do what Russia always does, has done for 400 years or more, ethnically cleanse Ukraine, ship millions of Ukrainians east of the Urals into Siberia where 50% or more will die in a few years of starvation, more Ukrainians will die as a result of surrendering than would ever die in a long grinding war, why do you think they are fighting?

Ukrainians know better than most what the cost of surrender will be, the price will be the same one they paid in the 1930 to 1933, another Holdomor, the men will be taken, forcibly enrolled in the army or sent east to the labour camps, none will ever return, the young women sent east also, the old and infirm will starve, Ukraine will be utterly depopulated in order to pacify it, the land given to Russians, this is what Russia always does.

Stalin, Lazar Kaganovich, Genhric Yagoda, these aren't Russians.
Heck even Lenin is only 1/4 Russian.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I hope the Russians invading Russia aren't being sacrificed.

From my understanding, these guys are probably the most eager volunteers there are in this war. Both of those groups are also reported to have strong far-right leanings/connections. If that makes it easier to stomach.

Freedom of Russia (which makes active noise about being centrist instead of far-right) claims to be "two battallions", my guess neither battallion is very big. Russian Volunteer Corps is maybe a few hundred guys. They're paramilitary, guerrillas essentially. Big enough to do some aggressive raids and cause real problems in an area without a proper military presense, but they don't have the means to fight the Russian military head on.

They'll break some stuff, steal some stuff, take some prisoners, take a lot of pictures and video, and go back over the border until next time.

[Itse]

There is a new development from last time this happened:

Unless I'm mistaken, the last time Russian volunteer guerrillas went over the border to stir up s*** in Russia, those were all units that were not officially connected to the Ukrainian government like the Russian Volunteer Corps.

This time Freedom of Russia is involved, which doesn't just make this bigger than last time, but they are also an official part of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force. (Think national guard, with lots of experienced combat veterans.)

So this is somewhat officially Ukrainian forces on Russial soil.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Unfortunately, Russia’s economy has proven far more resilient than expected. When sanctions were imposed, analysts expected Russia’s GDP to decline by 15 per cent in 2022. It declined by only 1.2 per cent. Last year, Russia’s economy actually grew faster than America’s, and it’s projected to grow by 2.6 per cent this year.

Sanctions have proved leaky, with China, India, Turkey, and the Gulf States either openly defying trade bans, or using third parties in Central Asia to get around them. Russian oil and gas revenues remain high.

Russia has achieved this by shifting domestic production towards the military. That may not be sustainable over the long term. But it doesn’t look as though the Russian economy is going to collapse in the short to mid-term (2-4 years).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ussia-economy/

That's all Russian propaganda. No one outside Russia knows the real numbers, and they are not likely to give any real numbers to outsiders.

(Russia being Russia, it's questionable if anyone inside Russia knows the real numbers.)

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Dunnyberg

Stalin, Lazar Kaganovich, Genhric Yagoda, these aren't Russians.
Heck even Lenin is only 1/4 Russian.

Russia was shipping its dissident populations east long before the revolution, it is a Russian punishment that the Bolsheviks continued as Putin has