Russia invades Ukraine

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by activeStick

May not be a popular take in here, but I agree with the former PM of France's comments here about the irresponsible comments from Macron a number of weeks ago when he suggested that France will send their troops on the ground into Ukraine. It was quickly countered by Germany and other countries saying they disagreed and will not send troops on the ground, but it still made Macron look amateur, making hubris claims without thinking, and isolated them on the world stage.

The war needs to end now. The only people benefitting from it are the players involved in the war machine of the west, while Ukrainians suffer and have their country destroyed. Like always, it's war hawks in the west who sit in their homes far away and cheer for the fighting to continue until "all Russians are dead" knowing full well that brave Ukrainians continue to die.

The only way the war ends "now" is if Ukraine surrenders, which means Russia fully controls their territory and the suffering of Ukrainians escalates drastically. The only way for Ukraine and it's people to survive is the total defeat of Russia, you are a complete fool or a puppet to believe anything else

[Huntingwhale]

Woof, you must have really loved the Pope's comments recently. Haven't had someone in this thread blaming the West since Yoho was around, but I guess we were due.

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by activeStick

May not be a popular take in here, but I agree with the former PM of France's comments here about the irresponsible comments from Macron a number of weeks ago when he suggested that France will send their troops on the ground into Ukraine. It was quickly countered by Germany and other countries saying they disagreed and will not send troops on the ground, but it still made Macron look amateur, making hubris claims without thinking, and isolated them on the world stage.

The war needs to end now. The only people benefitting from it are the players involved in the war machine of the west, while Ukrainians suffer and have their country destroyed. Like always, it's war hawks in the west who sit in their homes far away and cheer for the fighting to continue until "all Russians are dead" knowing full well that brave Ukrainians continue to die.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1766689428121297314

The only ending to this that will work is the complete defeat and withdrawal of Russia. Let's say Ukraine negotiates and gives Russia the currently occupied territory, what happens next? Russia spend 3 years rebuilding it's army and then invades the rest of Ukraine. China, emboldened by Russia's apparent success, invades Taiwan.


Open your history books, appeasement will not work, Russia needs to be defeated.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

The only ending to this that will work is the complete defeat and withdrawal of Russia. Let's say Ukraine negotiates and gives Russia the currently occupied territory, what happens next? Russia spend 3 years rebuilding it's army and then invades the rest of Ukraine. China, emboldened by Russia's apparent success, invades Taiwan.


Open your history books, appeasement will not work, Russia needs to be defeated.

I bet Neville Chamberlain is his favorite British prime minister

[activeStick]

Haha. Message received, as I expected. Keep the war going, even if that means Ukraine gets completely leveled and their people continue to suffer. The west will rebuild Ukraine after they win, just like they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

[starseed]

NATO involvement should be on the table at this point should the Russians threaten Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson or Odessa.


Full conquest of Ukraine should not be an option open to Russia.


Surrender absolutely cannot be an option when up against a foe that relishes the monstrous acts of horror that we have all witnessed.


I am absolutely disgusted by the Pope's words.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Haha. Message received, as I expected. Keep the war going, even if that means Ukraine gets completely leveled and their people continue to suffer. The west will rebuild Ukraine after they win, just like they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

I think what you're missing in this is Ukraine is getting leveled whether they surrender or not.

What's better? Your country getting blown up, but it still being your country to rebuild when all is said and done, or giving your country up in desperation to save it, and then having it leveled and left in ruin by your new, old, occupiers who have done this before.

Ukraine is in a no win situation, but they'd rather fight than lie down and that means we should do what we can to help.

[FlamesAddiction]

Even if the war ended tomorrow and the terms favoured Russia, everyone knows Russia will just wait, regroup, and do it all over again in the future. It may not even be Ukraine next time, but another country. They tried the appeasement strategy when they annexed Crimea. It just pushes the problem into the future. Russia thought the initial invasion of Ukraine was going to be fairly quick and smooth, next time they will be more prepared which doesn't bode well for whoever their next target is, which is why they need to be stopped now.

By Russia, I specifically mean Putin's Russia. I don't think peace with Russia is impossible, but not with Putin or a similar leader.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I think what you're missing in this is Ukraine is getting leveled whether they surrender or not.



What's better? Your country getting blown up, but it still being your country to rebuild when all is said and done it giving your country up in desperation to save it, and then having it leveled and left in ruin by your new, old, occupiers who have done this before.



Ukraine is in a no win situation, but they'd rather fight than lie down and that means we should do what we can to help.

That's a fair point. The reason I'm upset about the situation is there was an out at the start 9f the conflict I believe in the first 2 months when they were at the table ready for a ceasefire but PM of UK pushed Ukraine to not agree. Why the eff not? All the death and destruction since then could have been avoided. And a few months ago, it was said that Russia was willing to talk ceasefire but I believe the west again pressured Ukraine to continue fighting.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Haha. Message received, as I expected. Keep the war going, even if that means Ukraine gets completely leveled and their people continue to suffer. The west will rebuild Ukraine after they win, just like they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

But what does your alternative look like? Just let the Russians have it? Their occupation hasn't exactly been kind to the Ukrainians in those areas.

Originally Posted by activeStick

That's a fair point. The reason I'm upset about the situation is there was an out at the start 9f the conflict I believe in the first 2 months when they were at the table ready for a ceasefire but PM of UK pushed Ukraine to not agree. Why the eff not? All the death and destruction since then could have been avoided. And a few months ago, it was said that Russia was willing to talk ceasefire but I believe the west again pressured Ukraine to continue fighting.

The ceasefires Russia has been willing to accept are basically 'Give us what we want and we'll stop' It's not like a white peace was ever on the table

It's not like the Ukrainians are fighting just because the West is telling them too. They're defending themselves

We've already been down this road anyway, they just let Russia have Crimea hoping that would be it. And here we are

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by activeStick

That's a fair point. The reason I'm upset about the situation is there was an out at the start 9f the conflict I believe in the first 2 months when they were at the table ready for a ceasefire but PM of UK pushed Ukraine to not agree. Why the eff not? All the death and destruction since then could have been avoided. And a few months ago, it was said that Russia was willing to talk ceasefire but I believe the west again pressured Ukraine to continue fighting.

A cease fire requires trusting Putin who has shown he cannot be trusted. I won't pretend that I understand the internal workings of European foreign affairs, nor would I pretend I think Boris Johnson was anything other than a giant piece of ####. What I do know is they gave Putin a ceasefire last time and four years later he took advantage of his better starting position and tried to take the Ukrainian capital.

We don't have to like it, but we do need to understand why appeasement is off the table this time.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by btimbit

But what does your alternative look like? Just let the Russians have it? Their occupation hasn't exactly been kind to the Ukrainians in those areas.



The ceasefires Russia has been willing to accept are basically 'Give us what we want and we'll stop' It's not like a white peace was ever on the table

It's not like the Ukrainians are fighting just because the West is telling them too. They're defending themselves

We've already been down this road anyway, they just let Russia have Crimea hoping that would be it. And here we are

I think if I had to make a prediction I don't see Russia losing any ground/territory given they've flipped their economy into a war economy now. And if the west continues to supply Ukraine just enough to maintain their current position (which has basically been a draw), I don't imagine the situation changing. Ukrainians continue to die, fighting for their country, but don't gain any ground, Russians also die, but don't gain any ground, thr west continues to profit. If this is what ends up happening, I'd prefer just ending it now, even if that includes Russia keeping whatever they've gained in the conflict. Not ideal, not great, but better than the scenario where if they continue, and the only change is more deaths and no clear winner.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I think if I had to make a prediction I don't see Russia losing any ground/territory given they've flipped their economy into a war economy now. And if the west continues to supply Ukraine just enough to maintain their current position (which has basically been a draw), I don't imagine the situation changing. Ukrainians continue to die, fighting for their country, but don't gain any ground, Russians also die, but don't gain any ground, thr west continues to profit. If this is what ends up happening, I'd prefer just ending it now, even if that includes Russia keeping whatever they've gained in the conflict. Not ideal, not great, but better than the scenario where if they continue, and the only change is more deaths and no clear winner.

We've already been down that road though, they'll just build their forces back up and keep going in few years. If Russia truly wanted a ceasefire the only thing stopping them from pulling their troops out is themselves. They don't need an agreement for that

As for the ground gained, remember that Germany held almost all of their gains in WW1 until just a few months before the end of the war. They looked strong almost until the end


Side note, but I certainly don't disparage anyone who just wants the war to stop. But the notion that Ukraine is only fighting because the West is forcing them to keep going is Russian propaganda. Ukraine certainly could surrender if they wanted too, but they don't want too.

[btimbit]

One thing I'll agree with is that I do wish the West would up their support. But it's not like they're intentionally holding back to keep some sort of status quo. Putin has allies in the US that have been blocking a lot of aid to Ukraine, for example

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by btimbit

One thing I'll agree with is that I do wish the West would up their support. But it's not like they're intentionally holding back to keep some sort of status quo. Putin has allies in the US that have been blocking a lot of aid to Ukraine, for example

I agree with this as well. The entire western world should be sending every armament under the sun to the Ukrainians. I also like the idea of French + other nation troops guarding the Belarus border to free up those Ukrainian troops to fight in the east. These would end the war sooner as well.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I think if I had to make a prediction I don't see Russia losing any ground/territory given they've flipped their economy into a war economy now. And if the west continues to supply Ukraine just enough to maintain their current position (which has basically been a draw), I don't imagine the situation changing. Ukrainians continue to die, fighting for their country, but don't gain any ground, Russians also die, but don't gain any ground, thr west continues to profit. If this is what ends up happening, I'd prefer just ending it now, even if that includes Russia keeping whatever they've gained in the conflict. Not ideal, not great, but better than the scenario where if they continue, and the only change is more deaths and no clear winner.

Russia going to a wartime economy means pretty much the opposite of a prolonged war. A mobilized economy is temporary. It sacrifices the longterm viability of the country and it's economy for shortterm military gains. It's a double or nothing move; either you win, or you collapse. (Germany in WW1 for example collapsed and surrendered before it had time to collapse on the battlefield.)

There's a very good reason why Ukraine still hasn't fully mobilized: they are in this for the long haul. Russia on the other hand has shown it's trying to win this war quickly.

This war at no point has had signs of becoming a forever war. Russia especially is obviously on the clock. Their economy is hurting seriously and they're bleeding money at a massive pace. They are leaning on their Soviet stockpile of weapons and the financial buffer they built before the war, and those are both finite resources that are estimated run out in 1-2 years, if the pressure keeps up. (Possibly sooner.)

...and yeah, this isn't a war that's going to end by capitulating to Russia. Putin has made it really clear that if given the chance, he will just attack someone else. If there was peace in Ukraine, there would soon be another war somewhere else.

As for the war somehow being massively important for weapons manufacturers... It actually isn't super good business. What's good business is rearming other, richer countries, and that's going to happen regardless of the fighting in Ukraine.

Or not regardless; Russia winning would likely be the best possible scenario for arms manufacturers, as that would lead to massive arms race while everyone prepares for WW3.

Russia losing would be much more likely to calm down the arms race.

[pseudoreality]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The war needs to end now. The only people benefitting from it are the players involved in the war machine of the west, while Ukrainians suffer and have their country destroyed. Like always, it's war hawks in the west who sit in their homes far away and cheer for the fighting to continue until "all Russians are dead" knowing full well that brave Ukrainians continue to die.

I agree that the war needs to end, but not with the Russian annexation of Ukraine. The "war hawks in the west" did not invade Ukraine. Russa invaded because of the impireal agenda of its dictator and the world, not just the west, needs to stand united against those actions.

[Itse]

Russia btw managed to bankrupt one if its arms manufacturers during this war, and others are reported to be heavily in debt.

Being an arms manufacturer isn't always so great. In a wartime economy, it can mean the government will simply force you to build what it wants and pay what it wants in return.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Haha. Message received, as I expected. Keep the war going, even if that means Ukraine gets completely leveled and their people continue to suffer. The west will rebuild Ukraine after they win, just like they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

Two years ago today, before the full-scale invasion, Russia occupied 7 percent of Ukraine. On March 22, 2022, Moscow expanded control to 27 percent.

Ukraine has won back about half that newly captured territory, but Russia still occupies 18 percent. Recently, Ukraine pushed the Russian navy further back into the Black Sea, increased exports, and now increasingly threatens occupied Crimea. But it recently lost the eastern city of Avdiivka.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Itse

Russia going to a wartime economy means pretty much the opposite of a prolonged war. A mobilized economy is temporary. It sacrifices the longterm viability of the country and it's economy for shortterm military gains. It's a double or nothing move; either you win, or you collapse. (Germany in WW1 for example collapsed and surrendered before it had time to collapse on the battlefield.)

A lot of war analysts predict that Russia can only maintain this strategy until late 2025 or early 2026. It's still a long time though, especially as Russia ramps up the psychological attacks. Sadly, I don't think we've seen the worst yet. Russia knows they are on the clock now.