American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Maybe it's just me but I find mail in ballots mega sketchy. Oops 13 millions votes got lost in the mail. Oh well.

Just to be clear, you realize that the 'lost in the mail' number you're quoting includes ballots that would have been delivered to people who then simply chose not to vote by mail, right? I feel like that's an important qualifier that always needs to go along with that stat. A more appropriate word than 'lost' is 'uncast', but it's typically getting spun by various groups as something far worse.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The crucially important piece missing here is that whoever this woman is, there must be some geographic advantage to picking her. It needs to take a "lean blue" state over into the "solid blue" column, or create a purple state out of a "lean red" state. Even if you don't end up winning there, creating a situation where Republican resources need to be focused somewhere other than the Midwest and PA is a must-have. A couple of the leading contenders for the spot are from Georgia - that falls into the latter category.

Something else to consider would be a woman from a leans red state that has close Senate and House races where even if they don't win, it could help with the down ballot voting. That's why I agree that Georgia makes the most sense.

I just hope he doesn't pick Harris.

Another candidate with minimal upside. Plus she comes with a tonne of baggage.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There is zero upside to picking Warren. She's a culture warrior who pretty much alienated everyone. Centrists don't like her and neither do progressives. She's basically a non-entity with minority voters.

He can't realistically pick Bernie either. The optics would be horrible even if it would satisfy some of the twitter crowd.

Biden needs a high minority voter turnout on election day to win. The smart move is to go for a woman of colour who leans a bit more to the left than Biden does.

I'm not arguing for who he should pick. I'm just more raising the question of how much polling may shift once Biden makes a VP pick. If right now the polling is a reflection of a lot of politically centrist racists and misogynists not having anything to hate in Biden's ticket, those people could swing back to Trump once they're given someone sufficiently dark-skinned and sufficiently female to hate.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Just to be clear, you realize that the 'lost in the mail' number you're quoting includes ballots that would have been delivered to people who then simply chose not to vote by mail, right? I feel like that's an important qualifier that always needs to go along with that stat. A more appropriate word than 'lost' is 'uncast', but it's typically getting spun by various groups as something far worse.

It was just a random number I pulled out of an imaginart hat, and obviously people don't give two effects about Governement mail coming to their door unless its a cheque. So lost ballots obviously have to include those who didn't even vote. I also have no idea how they legitimize each voter card so I would also fear monger up some voter fraud on top. Because America.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I'm not arguing for who he should pick. I'm just more raising the question of how much polling may shift once Biden makes a VP pick. If right now the polling is a reflection of a lot of politically centrist racists and misogynists not having anything to hate in Biden's ticket, those people could swing back to Trump once they're given someone sufficiently dark-skinned and sufficiently female to hate.

Honestly I think recent events have really caused the tide to shift against the racist trolls of the world. Prior to Floyd's murder, there was still a whole bunch of what I'd call "plausibly deniable" racists/racism. Basically people who, unless they out and out said the N-word, could get away with as much dog-whistling as they wanted to.

There's obviously still a home for those people in right-wing circles, but whereas it used to be that politically moderate/independent whites would give them the benefit of the doubt or NBD that type of racism, there seems to be more condemnation.

When you have traditionally conservative organizations such as NASCAR and the NFL taking firm stand on some of these issues, you can start to read the tea leaves. I don't believe that any of these organizations are doing this out of sincerely held beliefs. They're just capitalists who are trying to course-correct in order to encapsulate a wider audience.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There is zero upside to picking Warren. She's a culture warrior who pretty much alienated everyone. Centrists don't like her and neither do progressives. She's basically a non-entity with minority voters.

He can't realistically pick Bernie either. The optics would be horrible even if it would satisfy some of the twitter crowd.

Biden needs a high minority voter turnout on election day to win. The smart move is to go for a woman of colour who leans a bit more to the left than Biden does.

I’m not sure it’s as big an issue as pundits are making it out to be. NYT ran a story today showing over 80 per cent of voters feel the race of the VP candidate should not be influenced by race. Even among black voters only 20 per cent said it’s important that the VP candidate is black.

Biden very likely will pick a woman of colour. But this is just another example of the media class being dramatically out of step with most voters.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I think this is a bit of superstitious sports fan mentality, that us discussing possibilities and likelihoods on this forum will have some tangible effect on the american election.

Don't jinx it guys! If Trump wins it'll be your fault!

In this case people control the outcome though...not me personally. The idea that Hillary had it in the bag contributed to her downfall without a doubt. How many people either didn't bother voting or just voted 3rd party to prove a "point" thinking there was zero chance Trump would win.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I’m not sure it’s as big an issue as pundits are making it out to be. NYT ran a story today showing over 80 per cent of voters feel the race of the VP candidate should not be influenced by race. Even among black voters only 20 per cent said it’s important that the VP candidate is black.

Biden very likely will pick a woman of colour. But this is just another example of the media class being dramatically out of step with most voters.

It could also be a sign that there are several female minorities qualified for the position.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There's a real risk that when people feel an election is a foregone conclusion voter turnout is low among people who aren't committed voters. Which would help Trump because old people always vote.

Biden was actually up in voters over 65 (very slightly) in the NY Times poll. But yes - the older vote is more pro-trump than the younger vote.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Honestly I think recent events have really caused the tide to shift against the racist trolls of the world. Prior to Floyd's murder, there was still a whole bunch of what I'd call "plausibly deniable" racists/racism. Basically people who, unless they out and out said the N-word, could get away with as much dog-whistling as they wanted to.

There's obviously still a home for those people in right-wing circles, but whereas it used to be that politically moderate/independent whites would give them the benefit of the doubt or NBD that type of racism, there seems to be more condemnation.

When you have traditionally conservative organizations such as NASCAR and the NFL taking firm stand on some of these issues, you can start to read the tea leaves. I don't believe that any of these organizations are doing this out of sincerely held beliefs. They're just capitalists who are trying to course-correct in order to encapsulate a wider audience.

I agree that it feels as though a tide has turned recently, and I hope that is the case. Still, with four months to go there is a lot of time for things to swing back. It's too early to confidently say what the outcome will be.

I do feel hope for the first time in a while though.

Honestly, I'm amazed at how the Dems seem to really be succeeding with the low-key approach, just allowing Trump to look the fool by not engaging in the fight and leaving him to govern during crisis. It's great so far.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There is zero upside to picking Warren. She's a culture warrior who pretty much alienated everyone. Centrists don't like her and neither do progressives. She's basically a non-entity with minority voters.

He can't realistically pick Bernie either. The optics would be horrible even if it would satisfy some of the twitter crowd.

Biden needs a high minority voter turnout on election day to win. The smart move is to go for a woman of colour who leans a bit more to the left than Biden does.

According to this - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/u...nt-voters.html
Warren is +3 on favourability. All of the candidates listed were seen favourably and Warren was the lowest. But she isn't hated (at least at this point). She was also the best debater of the bunch in the Democratic primary if that warms your cockles.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

According to this - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/u...nt-voters.html
Warren is +3 on favourability. All of the candidates listed were seen favourably and Warren was the lowest. But she isn't hated (at least at this point). She was also the best debater of the bunch in the Democratic primary if that warms your cockles.

I mean her evisceration of Bloomberg was pretty much the highlight of the primaries.

[ResAlien]

Assuming Biden wins the VP will be the nominee in 2024. Father Time is undefeated. That has to factor in to the choice.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Ummmm.....wha? And Trump has known for months?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1276603566283726848

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Ummmm.....wha? And Trump has known for months?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1276603566283726848

He could be had for treason so many times already. None of this should be a shock. Seeing as Russia has the top of the U.S government in their pocket.

[troutman]

"Getting along with Russia is a good thing -- not a bad thing. Maybe we will and maybe we won't. And probably no one has been tougher to Russia than Donald Trump," President Trump says. "Getting along with Russia would be a good thing, not a bad thing — and just about everybody agrees to that, except very stupid people."


https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...russia-than-me

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by dino7c

In this case people control the outcome though...not me personally. The idea that Hillary had it in the bag contributed to her downfall without a doubt. How many people either didn't bother voting or just voted 3rd party to prove a "point" thinking there was zero chance Trump would win.

I suspect most Biden voters would crawl across broken glass to vote against Trump this time, no matter what, that's the downside with his approach, those that dont like Trump really hate him by now, they arnt taking any chances

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by troutman

"Getting along with Russia is a good thing -- not a bad thing. Maybe we will and maybe we won't. And probably no one has been tougher to Russia than Donald Trump," President Trump says. "Getting along with Russia would be a good thing, not a bad thing — and just about everybody agrees to that, except very stupid people."


https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...russia-than-me

This all makes sense now. That’s for sure a google translated quote from what they wrote for him to say.

[photon]

Originally Posted by dammage79

And Covid messing up the election? Has it stopped anyone i. The states going to the beach or protesting? This election take priority over everything else, for both sides.

The really engaged people sure are going to turn out no matter what, but turnout in the US is low at the best of times, what percentage of voters are highly engaged, and how many spend most their lives not paying much attention to politics?

Plus who knows how easy it will be to even vote. Kentucky closed over 3500 polling stations so only 170 were open for the primaries. The entire city of Louisville had just one polling station.

States where Republicans can control which regions of the state get their polling stations slashed (say areas with black voters) and which don't could hold much more sway over results than normal.

After waiting 8 hours in line to vote some people are going to leave, and is there any bias as to who leaves more.

Just feels like there could be a lot of risk in this area.

[direwolf]

'Murica!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1276639625608495104