American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[activeStick]

^ it's an interesting point because over the last couple of days, Trump has been speaking in terms indicating that Biden would win in November.

[dino7c]

IDK people said Trump didn't want to win last time too...guy is just a moron, he expects to win or it must be fixed

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by activeStick

^ it's an interesting point because over the last couple of days, Trump has been speaking in terms indicating that Biden would win in November.

Here's a thought, come Oct, it's apparent he has no chance so he steps down due to health reasons and hands the reins over to Pence who in turn gives a full pardon on every investigation that's waiting for him.

We can only hope his ego wouldn't do it.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Here's a thought, come Oct, it's apparent he has no chance so he steps down due to health reasons and hands the reins over to Pence who in turn gives a full pardon on every investigation that's waiting for him.

We can only hope his ego wouldn't do it.

The good news is, the president can't pardon him for anything being prosecuted at the state level. And from was posted some time ago, the state of New York was looking at some things.

[dino7c]

Let's not get too cocky here

I remember in 2016 when the biggest worry was Trump not accepting the results of the election.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Let's not get too cocky here

I remember in 2016 when the biggest worry was Trump not accepting the results of the election.

I think this is a bit of superstitious sports fan mentality, that us discussing possibilities and likelihoods on this forum will have some tangible effect on the american election.

Don't jinx it guys! If Trump wins it'll be your fault!

[Scroopy Noopers]

Honest question, does his portrait hang in the whitehouse? Ever?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, I think that's a solid breakdown. There were reasons I was skeptical about Biden, but this is definitely something he's great at: he plays well in a lot of states like Iowa and Montana and Georgia that aren't exactly swing states, but where he might be able to help a popular local Democrat over the top. Hell, even somewhere as unlikely as Kansas might be in play.

It's worth also pointing out that 2022 is a really good cycle for the Democrats to defend (no vulnerable races right now, plus potential pickup opportunities in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina), so if they have a real breakthrough this year, they'll be set up well for a long time. As well, there's a chance that sometime during a Biden presidency, Washington D.C. statehood would become a priority. (Biden has expressed support for it, but there's a number of roadblocks, most of which could be overcome with enough support in the senate.) So there's incredible long-term stakes in winning control over the senate here.

Statehood is a majority vote by both branches or congress and presidential approval. If they get the senate i would do Puerto Rico and Washington DC for statehood.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Maybe Trump doesn't actually want to win and is tanking. The far more likely explanation is that he has no idea on how to actually win. Without the human punching bag that is Hillary as an opponent, his stream of unconsciousness rants and rallies aren't even close to good enough to win. But he doesn't have any other plays in the playbook and quite obviously lacks the discipline to do anything else. Cheating will obviously be his biggest play left, but outside that he's basically hoping for a Biden implosion.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Well he’s a con man, so the last election was perfect for him, he could brainwash people into believing that his opponent was the devil and he would be so much better for the country. Now it’s obvious (or should be) to everyone he was obviously just making things and he’s got nothing left but continually making things up, shifting blame, and hoping there’s enough stupid people in that country, along with voter suppression and gerrymandering, to get re-elected. That country is so broken right now that it’s not even impossible.

[nfotiu]

He also bet the house on Covid going away or at least staying under control while re-opening. If things keep going like they are, that alone will be almost impossible to recover from.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I think this is a bit of superstitious sports fan mentality, that us discussing possibilities and likelihoods on this forum will have some tangible effect on the american election.

Don't jinx it guys! If Trump wins it'll be your fault!

There's a real risk that when people feel an election is a foregone conclusion voter turnout is low among people who aren't committed voters. Which would help Trump because old people always vote.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

T Which would help Trump because old people always vote.

Maybe not as much during COVID?

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Maybe COVID will be so out of control that holding an election could be problematic...wouldn’t that be awesome

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by troutman

Maybe not as much during COVID?

Most votes are expected to be cast by mail. Which will make election night coverage interesting - there won't be an accurate ballot count until 4-5 days after the election.

[JohnnyB]

Chris Hayes had an interesting piece the other day about how Trump's base still seems mostly fired up about Obama and Clinton, but that they don't seem so upset about Biden perhaps because he's another old, white man. He also pointed out that Trump, maybe in recognition of his base's affinity for old white men, is always arguing that Biden isn't in control and he's just a puppet for the radical wing of the party. If those are true, it will be interesting to see how the VP pick affects enthusiasm.

If Biden picks a progressive woman of colour, will that fire up the politically centrist racists and misogynists to swing support back to Trump? If Biden doesn't at least pick a progressive woman, that would hurt a lot of enthusiasm on the left. Even a white, progressive woman like Warren would maybe fire up Trump's base as the caricature of her is already well developed. If Biden went with Bernie as a maximally old white man tag team, would Trump's base feel less hatred on account of them being so white, so male and so old?

The Dems strategy in the last couple of months of generally staying quiet and simply letting Trump look like a fool in charge of the system seems to be working well. Trump thrives on combative situations, and the Dems have been taking the air out of that, but the VP pick may be what he's waiting on, particularly if it's a progressive WOC.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

If Biden picks a progressive woman of colour, will that fire up the politically centrist racists and misogynists to swing support back to Trump? If Biden doesn't at least pick a progressive woman, that would hurt a lot of enthusiasm on the left. Even a white, progressive woman like Warren would maybe fire up Trump's base as the caricature of her is already well developed. If Biden went with Bernie as a maximally old white man tag team, would Trump's base feel less hatred on account of them being so white, so male and so old?

There is zero upside to picking Warren. She's a culture warrior who pretty much alienated everyone. Centrists don't like her and neither do progressives. She's basically a non-entity with minority voters.

He can't realistically pick Bernie either. The optics would be horrible even if it would satisfy some of the twitter crowd.

Biden needs a high minority voter turnout on election day to win. The smart move is to go for a woman of colour who leans a bit more to the left than Biden does.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Maybe COVID will be so out of control that holding an election could be problematic...wouldn’t that be awesome

I think that's a big wildcard.. turnout could vary wildly making unexpected results. Legal challenges to close mail-in races could make hanging chads a fond memory.

Pelosi might become president because the election has no clear winner due to huge court cases lol.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I think if Biden tried to pick Bernie, Bernie would decline - he would understand that it's a bad idea.

Originally Posted by rubecube

The smart move is to go for a woman of colour who leans a bit more to the left than Biden does.

The crucially important piece missing here is that whoever this woman is, there must be some geographic advantage to picking her. It needs to take a "lean blue" state over into the "solid blue" column, or create a purple state out of a "lean red" state. Even if you don't end up winning there, creating a situation where Republican resources need to be focused somewhere other than the Midwest and PA is a must-have. A couple of the leading contenders for the spot are from Georgia - that falls into the latter category.

I just hope he doesn't pick Harris.

[dammage79]

Maybe it's just me but I find mail in ballots mega sketchy. Oops 13 millions votes got lost in the mail. Oh well.

And Covid messing up the election? Has it stopped anyone i. The states going to the beach or protesting? This election take priority over everything else, for both sides.

You'll know exactly how its going to go if Trump all of a sudden take Covid seriously. The game is still rigged to favor trump despite what seems likely that he would get swept off the board if things were done properly.

I feel almost too pessimistic about November in the U.S.

It has no real bearing on my life aside from having the idiot dominate the news cycle every ten minutes with new and fantastically stupid content. Id like my life to be less aware of that piece of trashes existence.