Russia invades Ukraine

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Both things can be true, though. I think it's already showing itself to be tougher than he probably expected it would be.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by peter12

Russia probably has pretty limited goals here. This isn’t Nazi Germany looking to take over Europe. The Baltic countries and Poland are far more formidable challenges than Ukraine - never mind that there is an actual NATO tripwire protecting those countries.

Poland alone could probably take Russia in a straight up fight.

I wouldn't underestimate the goals of someone who is more worried about their succession plan and legacy than anything else. Putin has long been a staunch proponent of restoring former Soviet glory.

With covid and somewhat currently weak NATO members, he quite likely sees this as the optimal time to execute his plans to do so, and who knows how far he's willing to go with some of the most elaborate nuclear and long range missile arsenals in existence.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

It’s pretty hard to not see how this doesn’t become Cold War 2.0. Maybe Canada will finally get serious about its national defence again (yeah right).

Canada or Germany should replace Russia as a permanent member of the security council.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by zamler

Ukraine will fall in short order.

Russia obviously is way stronger militarily.

But Ukraine are full of resolve, and with crippling economic sanctions, will Russia really be able to sustain the attack? I question the morale and motivation of their troops.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Canada or Germany should replace Russia as a permanent member of the security council.

Neither of those should do that. Canada is irrelevant geopolitically, Germany has shown itself to be limp when it mattered leading up to this.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by nik-

Neither of those should do that. Canada is irrelevant geopolitically, Germany has shown itself to be limp when it mattered leading up to this.

It was in the context of Peter saying Canada should get serious about national defense.

Germany - actually you make a point. This was their time to take a major leadership role and they failed miserably.

[FlameOn]

Germany is an embarrassment, they are stalling action against Russia and getting called out by the UK and US governments now. That conversion to Russia natural gas from nuclear plants is turning out so well for them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...es-2022-02-24/

[agulati]

They should go with the strictest sanctions possible. What’s the logic of holding some back to be available to be placed on a later date? The longer Putin feels the full might of sanctions, the greater the chance of Russia being bled dry and potentially having to walk back their invasion. Not that it would necessarily be that effective, but if this ends up being a prolonged war, hit them where it hurts.

I wonder how Germany would have reacted if Merkel was still in charge.

[Monahammer]

A fractured Nato through split between Germany/France and USA is a strategic goal for Putin as well. This isn't all about a ground war in Europe.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

A fractured Nato through split between Germany/France and USA is a strategic goal for Putin as well. This isn't all about a ground war in Europe.

Stuff like this is what really scares me. This whole situation seems to be a big loser for Russia.. cut off economically, alienating the other world superpowers and all for a little bit of land that really won't help. So why?

The optimist in me thinks Putin is just on a mad dash to restore the USSR and feels like his time to do this is now or never..

The pessimist in me worries that Putin is playing 4-D chess while the West is still setting up the checkers board and we have no idea what the real end game is.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The whole conversation about freezing Russian assets abroad is one that I'm not well versed in, but it seems, on its face, to be a very effective and relatively easily implemented bit of pain that could be brought to bear. But it seems like the consensus is that it's not something that Western powers (or Eastern ones, for that matter) are likely to be willing to do? Why is that? Is the blowback from that in terms of retaliatory seizure of property, or something else, greater than I'm imagining it to be or am I missing something?

Maybe a cynical take, but there are lots of people who benefit from all that Russian money in London, New York, etc. If it gets cut off, who’s to say Saudi money might not be next? Or Chinese?

This is big money we’re talking about. It creates powerful interests in the hands of everyone it passes through - banks, property owners, government coffers. Globalized megacities owe a considerable share of their affluence and status to being safe havens for dirty money.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

A fractured Nato through split between Germany/France and USA is a strategic goal for Putin as well. This isn't all about a ground war in Europe.

This was actually the case for the latter half of the Cold War as well.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by belsarius

The pessimist in me worries that Putin is playing 4-D chess while the West is still setting up the checkers board and we have no idea what the real end game is.

The end game may not also be the end result. I also don't think NATO is an inept as some make them out to be. Conflict in Ukraine has been a very real scenario for NATO for decades.

There is a very real potential that this dominos into NATO involvement in short order, whether NATO wants to get involved or not.

Then we have the strategic nuclear options on the table that Putin threatened in his speech, especially if he feels backed into a corner.

No one is 'winning' this conflict.

[Pointman]

Reported protests in St.Petersburg and Moscow. People are being arrested.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The end game may not also be the end result. I also don't think NATO is an inept as some make them out to be. Conflict in Ukraine has been a very real scenario for NATO for decades.

There is a very real potential that this dominos into NATO involvement in short order, whether NATO wants to get involved or not.

Then we have the strategic nuclear options on the table that Putin threatened in his speech, especially if he feels backed into a corner.

No one is 'winning' this conflict.

If Russia kills Zelenskiy or go on some massacre once Ukraine is defeated, the pressure on NATO to step in would be enormous.

[AltaGuy]

The more I think about this, and the more time I have to let it sink in, the more I realize that there will be no meaningful response from the West. By nothing I mean that no Western country is going to actually punish Russia for this: the sanctions will be the usual, the oligarchs will keep most or all of their Western-held wealth and toys, and the world will go back to normal in about six months, maybe less.

Russia will get a puppet government in Kiev and independence for much of Eastern Ukraine after sitting down with the West for some "meaningful" peace talks once they have accomplished their goals.

It's a little bit sickening and very disheartening to me, but there is no will to stand up to Russia in any Western nation, and especially among the global elite who are members of all countries and none these days.

I've long been concerned that Russia and China are the world's future: not that they're going to take over, but that people will accept authoritarianism in exchange for material benefit the world over. Moreover, technology means that disinformation and cracking down on dissent has never been easier for an authoritarian regime, making their power much more secure than in the past where a revolution might threaten.

At any rate, I feel horribly for Ukrainians, who will fight and lose many lives, only to have the rest of the world essentially stand by and let Russia achieve all of their goals. I don't think any other country is next - Putin won't go into the Baltics or Poland or anything - but this is honestly bad enough. A sovereign state and people are losing their freedoms and the west will simply let it happen.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The end game may not also be the end result. I also don't think NATO is an inept as some make them out to be. Conflict in Ukraine has been a very real scenario for NATO for decades.

There is a very real potential that this dominos into NATO involvement in short order, whether NATO wants to get involved or not.

Then we have the strategic nuclear options on the table that Putin threatened in his speech, especially if he feels backed into a corner.

No one is 'winning' this conflict.

There isn't much more than one poor decision or action by many levels of Russian military/government keeping NATO out of the picture as it stands now. Make no mistake, if it comes to that point the result will be catastrophic for Europe and the world.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

The more I think about this, and the more time I have to let it sink in, the more I realize that there will be no meaningful response from the West. By nothing I mean that no Western country is going to actually punish Russia for this: the sanctions will be the usual, the oligarchs will keep most or all of their Western-held wealth and toys, and the world will go back to normal in about six months, maybe less.

Russia will get a puppet government in Kiev and independence for much of Eastern Ukraine after sitting down with the West for some "meaningful" peace talks once they have accomplished their goals.

It's a little bit sickening and very disheartening to me, but there is no will to stand up to Russia in any Western nation, and especially among the global elite who are members of all countries and none these days.

I've long been concerned that Russia and China are the world's future: not that they're going to take over, but that people will accept authoritarianism in exchange for material benefit the world over. Moreover, technology means that disinformation and cracking down on dissent has never been easier for an authoritarian regime, making their power much more secure than in the past where a revolution might threaten.

At any rate, I feel horribly for Ukrainians, who will fight and lose many lives, only to have the rest of the world essentially stand by and let Russia achieve all of their goals. I don't think any other country is next - Putin won't go into the Baltics or Poland or anything - but this is honestly bad enough. A sovereign state and people are losing their freedoms and the west will simply let it happen.

If the west intervenes, aren't more lives lost? Some fights can't be won. I'm 45. I don't think I've ever seen the west decisively win a war in my whole life. I guess there was Iraq, but the West was Russia in that scenario and it's not like Iraq is now stable or anything.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Sliver

If the west intervenes, aren't more lives lost? Some fights can't be won. I'm 45. I don't think I've ever seen the west decisively win a war in my whole life. I guess there was Iraq, but the West was Russia in that scenario and it's not like Iraq is now stable or anything.

No, there is no military option that would win this for Ukraine and the West. But there is a great deal of leverage that will not be used. Shutting Russia out of SWIFT would hurt them immediately, but would also hurt many interests in the West. Seizing assets and funds will not happen on a large scale for the same reasons.

The West could win, but they won't because there is no stomach for it and it would hurt too many pocketbooks.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Sliver

If the west intervenes, aren't more lives lost? Some fights can't be won. I'm 45. I don't think I've ever seen the west decisively win a war in my whole life. I guess there was Iraq, but the West was Russia in that scenario and it's not like Iraq is now stable or anything.

When is the last time there's been a clean decisive victory since WWII? Korea ended in a stalemate.

This war isn't likely going to be a short war for Russia either. Even if they decapitate government in Kyiv and manage to round up most of the current leadership there will be a long and drawn out insurgency/government in exile that will bleed Russia for a very long time.