Russia invades Ukraine

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by zamler

You really think Putin could be ousted in an election?

Of course not. But elections aren’t the only (or even most common) way tyrants are overthrown. Popular revolts, political coups, military coups - tyrants go to sleep at night dreading all of them.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Bagor

Why wasn't this in place already?
ie. You do x. y will automatically be the consequences.

Because they weren't expecting such an immediate escalation from level 2 being threats and minor incursions to level 10, which is now full scale war. The big question is going to be is the West going to tolerate seeing images of scores of dead civilians, destroyed cities and potentially half of Ukraine being absorbed by an unprovoked aggressor?

Paralyzing sanctions are going to be a big blow to Russia, but at some point you have to worry that NATO action is going to be the only outcome if things even modestly deteriorate from here, especially if it becomes clear that Putin can basically do whatever he wants.

[burn_this_city]

Horribly depressing day. My sympathies are with everyone trapped in one man's fight against honesty and reason. The Ukraine has seen so much horror over the last 100+ years. We are living through the most dangerous time in at least a generation.

[zamler]

Let's see if the U.S. continues to buy oil from Russia.

[FlameOn]

Moral isn't as high for the Russians in this fight apparently.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496879176950894594

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by zamler

Let's see if the U.S. continues to buy oil from Russia.

Russian crude oil is insignificant to North American supply. Any sanctions or other penalties need to be extreme and highly tangible. No more staged actions. NATO countries need to go as absolutely hard as they can immediately and hope it can deter any further action.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Russian crude oil is insignificant to North American supply. Any sanctions or other penalties need to be extreme and highly tangible. No more staged actions. NATO countries need to go as absolutely hard as they can immediately and hope it can deter any further action.

Too late for any of that. As for Russian oil it's still about ~10% not insignificant. My point is actual sanctions would include instantly stopping oil imports from Russia. Should have been done a long time ago.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

The whole conversation about freezing Russian assets abroad is one that I'm not well versed in, but it seems, on its face, to be a very effective and relatively easily implemented bit of pain that could be brought to bear. But it seems like the consensus is that it's not something that Western powers (or Eastern ones, for that matter) are likely to be willing to do? Why is that? Is the blowback from that in terms of retaliatory seizure of property, or something else, greater than I'm imagining it to be or am I missing something?

[PeteMoss]

I hope US/NATO learned during Covid that you need to go as hard as possible as quickly possible with sanctions. If you try to drib drab them out, it will just become another political battle domestically.

[Ozy_Flame]

Russian forces are apparently trying to seize the Chernobyl NPP (and I suppose effectively Chernobyl). Fighting has broken out in the area. Strategically, going through there it is one of the fastest routes from Russia to Kyiv so it shouldn't be surprising that it's becoming a battleground.

The last thing this needs is more damage to already-damaged nuclear facilities. Christ.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

This will be a short and limited war. Analysts say it could take up to 700k troops to fully occupy and pacify a hostile Ukraine. And Putin isn’t as secure at home as we might think - if polls are to be believed only 32 per cent of Russians trust him, and the biggest fear of tyrants is always a domestic revolt.

Short-term objective (weeks): The destruction of conventional Ukraine forces and occupation of Eastern Ukraine territory.

Mid-term objective (months): Firm control of the Black Sea corridor connecting Russia to the Crimea, and the establishment of a client regime in the territory. This achieves the strategic objectives of 1) connecting the Crimea to Russia by land, and 2) creating a buffer between Ukraine / the West and Russia’s vital resources in the Caucasus.

Long-term objective (years): Establish client provinces within Ukraine and then force a new constitution on the country giving those provinces a veto on key decisions like joining NATO.

This is a good take.

A lot of the international opposition to this is just loud talking. Nobody is going to step in to save Ukraine...especially not militarily. I mean, Biden basically said they were going to stand back and watch.

This is a region conflict, and international efforts should be put towards ensuring it stays a regional conflict.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by zamler

Too late for any of that. As for Russian oil it's still about ~10% not insignificant. My point is actual sanctions would include instantly stopping oil imports from Russia. Should have been done a long time ago.

That's for Europe to take into account as they are by far the largest consumers, not the U.S. or Canada.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

It was a regional conflict in 2014 when Putin took over Crimea too; the longer the world pretends this is a regional conflict the worse it gets.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

It was a regional conflict in 2014 when Putin took over Crimea too; the longer the world pretends this is a regional conflict the worse it gets.

Exactly what Putin is counting on.

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

That's for Europe to take into account as they are by far the largest consumers, not the U.S. or Canada.

Everyone needs to step up.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

This is a good take.

A lot of the international opposition to this is just loud talking. Nobody is going to step in to save Ukraine...especially not militarily. I mean, Biden basically said they were going to stand back and watch.

This is a region conflict, and international efforts should be put towards ensuring it stays a regional conflict.

And history shows time and time again that regional conflict on a scale like this tends to become increasingly more overreaching with time when unmitigated. Crimea > most of Ukraine > next it's another country viewed as a security risk. Diplomacy is obviously key here, but the world can't stand by and allow Ukraine to be absorbed, which is ultimately what is going to happen here. Full on nuclear level sanctions need to be levied now before it's too late....and it might already be too late.

[peter12]

It’s pretty hard to not see how this doesn’t become Cold War 2.0. Maybe Canada will finally get serious about its national defence again (yeah right).

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Ho Hum here's the Sudetenland, hey ho, there goes Poland

[karl262]

I don't think Ukraine is going to be the pushover Putin was hoping for.

The Ukrainian army has had the better part of a decade preparing for this, they're the ones who are dug in and filled with resolve.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

Ho Hum here's the Sudetenland, hey ho, there goes Poland

Russia probably has pretty limited goals here. This isn’t Nazi Germany looking to take over Europe. The Baltic countries and Poland are far more formidable challenges than Ukraine - never mind that there is an actual NATO tripwire protecting those countries.

Poland alone could probably do serious damage to Russia in a straight up fight.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by karl262

I don't think Ukraine is going to be the pushover Putin was hoping for.

The Ukrainian army has had the better part of a decade preparing for this, they're the ones who are dug in and filled with resolve.

Ukraine will fall in short order.