Can we talk about the cap?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Gaudreau is the first domino, and with good reason. If the Flames sign him for 10 or less, I think it could work to have everybody back, but it might be at the cost of walking both Mangiapane and Tkachuk to UFA. I really like Mangi, but they need to figure out Gaudreau and Tkachuk first.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, it's hard to really speculate on much of the off season cap issues without knowing whether or not the biggest ticket guy is going to stay with the Flames or not.

Losing him for nothing will be a pretty terrible scenario in my eyes. The only thing that'll take the sting off of that would be the Flames winning the cup this year. The only other thing that would soften the blow a little, would be if they can at least replace him via free agency by signing Forsberg. I'd rather have Johnny, but Forsberg would be a solid consolation prize.

After that, all the most important free agents are restricted. If there isn't enough cap space to sign them all, and dead cap can't be moved at a fair price, at least you can deal one or more of them for a decent return.

The two tower Dmen would obviously both be very nice to have back, but I don't see any way it's possible, and I don't think dealing one of the top 4 to make room is a smart move. Hanifin, Andersson, Kylington, Tanev is a very solid top 4 to move forward with, and I don't think it's too crazy of an idea to think Gudbranson might come back for a little less money since he's been such a good fit here. If you get him back, you'd think one of Mackey or Valimaki would be able to replace Zadorov's minutes adequately.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Gaudreau is the first domino, and with good reason. If the Flames sign him for 10 or less, I think it could work to have everybody back, but it might be at the cost of walking both Mangiapane and Tkachuk to UFA. I really like Mangi, but they need to figure out Gaudreau and Tkachuk first.

Plus if you're Magniapane you don't sign till you find out what JG is doing, if he walks your leverage increases as well as your asking price.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

okay so he had 15 in the first two months and 14 since

Not saying he isn't a really good player but I don't think he will score 35-40 every year, all depends on the number I guess

5M sure
7M no facking way

15 in first 22 games (56g pace); 14 in the next 32 games (36g pace).

Though if you drill down into his game log it was actually 15 in the first 19 (65 pace) and 14 in 35 (33).

Or you could break it into 3 segments:

15 in 19
4 in 21
10 in 14

Most goal-scorers tend to be a little bit streaky. Only 5 players have more EVG+SHG this year

[GullFoss]

I'd speculate they trade Monahan ++++ for giroux at the deadline to fix their cap for this season and bolster their team for the playoffs

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I worry that Mangiapane wants to be paid like a 40 goal scorer, gets it, and never scores anywhere near 40 again.

Didn't he have like 20 in the first month

I wonder how many one hit wonders there actually are? You can't count on many guys to consistently score 40+, but most guys who score 40 once tend to have multiple 30+ goal seasons.

The exceptions I've found (*<70 gp):

W Karlsson - 9 6 43 24 15* 14*

Cheechoo - 28 56 37 23* 12*
Kesler - 21 26 25 41 22 4* 25 20 21 22
Gionta - 12*, 21, then 48 coming out of the lockout...25* 22 20 28* 29
Bertuzzi - 25 36 46 17***...25 coming out of the lockout then <20
Boyes - 26 17 43 33 14 17 8 10 21 14

Hall's career high is 39 and hasn't broke 20 since; previous best were 27 in 61 and 27 in 75.

Scott Gomez had 19 in his rookie year but never exceeded 16 except for a 33g year at age 26 coming out of the lockout (still a reliable ~60+ pt guy for the first 10 years of his career though).

I think there may be a few others whose career high was exactly 40 who were never very close again: Jason Blake, Anders Lee.


Barring major injury or Bertuzzi-event, I think Mangi has set a pretty safe floor as a min. 25g-45p guy, compared to a W Karlsson who came out of nowhere.

I think Gionta might be the best comparable - anomalous 48 goal season after 37g in his first 166gp (Mangi had 43 in his first 178 before this season). Gionta potted 124 over the next 5 seasons; twice missing ~20 games in a season (33 and 38 goal pace those years)

Obviously you'd hope it's consistently higher, but it's not the end of the world to pay a guy ~$6.5M for ~25g/45

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I like Mangiapane at $6.5 mil more than Tkachuk at $10 mil.

Exactly this. For me, it's Mangi + 1 of JG/MT for ~$16M vs. JG+MT at ~$20M.

I don't think $20M on two wingers is a good idea unless at least one of them is like Ovi/Kane or a complete player like Stone.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Exactly this. For me, it's Mangi + 1 of JG/MT for ~$16M vs. JG+MT at ~$20M.

I don't think $20M on two wingers is a good idea unless at least one of them is like Ovi/Kane or a complete player like Stone.

And Tkachuk would bring back more assets than Mangiapane if they have to move him.

Gaudreau + Mangiapane + Tkachuk trade assets + $3.5 mil cap space > Gaudreau + Tkachuk + Mangiapane trade assets.