Can we talk about the cap?

[BigRed]

Not to be a downer, but this looks like a tough summer for the Flames. No surprise, I know, but I'm starting to think about what needs to happen.

Flames will definitely not re-sign Ritchie (800K), Richardson (800K) and they finally get out from under the Brouwer buyout ($1.5 mln). That's $3.1 mln in the black with no impact on the roster.

Obviously, that's not close to what we need to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington. Plus the entire 3rd pair of Gudbranson and Zadorov are expiring. They're not due the same kind of raise that those top 4 are, but Gudbranson seems to have at least earned his QO.

I suspect Zadorov will be lost as a UFA, which means Valimaki and/or Mackey will play next year, which saves another $2ish mln. But we still need way more room to sign those guys.

Which makes me think that either Monahan or Lucic, with their big contracts, need to go. Ruzicka isn't there yet, but it's not hard to see him being a viable option at 3C. Monahan's 6ish million off the books would give us ~$11 million of head room, total. Which maybe still isn't enough. And that's assuming you can move him without taking money back.

Hard to see how this team sticks together, TBH, unless they just qualify Tkachuck and accept he's gone after next year. Thoughts?

[1qqaaz]

11 million available for the raises they're getting, around 33 million in total with Monahan traded and including their existing cap hits.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

11 million available for the raises they're getting, around 33 million in total with Monahan traded and including their existing cap hits.

Everyone is going to be tight to the cap. You can throw Arizona something to take him, but it's going to be expensive because they'll be 5 other teams trying to do something similar.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Not to be a downer, but this looks like a tough summer for the Flames. No surprise, I know, but I'm starting to think about what needs to happen.

Flames will definitely not re-sign Ritchie (800K), Richardson (800K) and they finally get out from under the Brouwer buyout ($1.5 mln). That's $3.1 mln in the black with no impact on the roster.

Obviously, that's not close to what we need to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington. Plus the entire 3rd pair of Gudbranson and Zadorov are expiring. They're not due the same kind of raise that those top 4 are, but Gudbranson seems to have at least earned his QO.

I suspect Zadorov will be lost as a UFA, which means Valimaki and/or Mackey will play next year, which saves another $2ish mln. But we still need way more room to sign those guys.

Which makes me think that either Monahan or Lucic, with their big contracts, need to go. Ruzicka isn't there yet, but it's not hard to see him being a viable option at 3C. Monahan's 6ish million off the books would give us ~$11 million of head room, total. Which maybe still isn't enough. And that's assuming you can move him without taking money back.

Hard to see how this team sticks together, TBH, unless they just qualify Tkachuck and accept he's gone after next year. Thoughts?

Goodbranson is UFA.

You move both Monahan and Lucic, and let Zadarov walk if it lets you keep the big four. They're on expiring deals, so teams can "double dip" by getting paid to take them, then flipping them with retention at the deadline for more assets. It should be feasible, even though they're all positive contributors cap notwithstanding.

[Flamesfan05]

You tell lucic and Monahan they are injured. Take some rest until the playoffs

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by SebC

Goodbranson is UFA.

You move both Monahan and Lucic, and let Zadarov walk if it lets you keep the big four. They're on expiring deals, so teams can "double dip" by getting paid to take them, then flipping them with retention at the deadline for more assets. It should be feasible, even though they're all positive contributors cap notwithstanding.

It'll take such a bite out of the team's chemistry. Monahan might not be too missed, but Lucic seems like an important piece. Wish we had him at ~ 2, which is where he belongs at this point in his career.

Gudbranson, assuming he'll sign for around the same as he's making now (1,95) with a bit of term (3 years? 4?) is good value. But you're right, some pretty deep cuts need to happen to preserve the top line and the top 4 D.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Not to be a downer, but this looks like a tough summer for the Flames. No surprise, I know, but I'm starting to think about what needs to happen.

Flames will definitely not re-sign Ritchie (800K), Richardson (800K) and they finally get out from under the Brouwer buyout ($1.5 mln). That's $3.1 mln in the black with no impact on the roster.

Obviously, that's not close to what we need to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington. Plus the entire 3rd pair of Gudbranson and Zadorov are expiring. They're not due the same kind of raise that those top 4 are, but Gudbranson seems to have at least earned his QO.

I suspect Zadorov will be lost as a UFA, which means Valimaki and/or Mackey will play next year, which saves another $2ish mln. But we still need way more room to sign those guys.

Which makes me think that either Monahan or Lucic, with their big contracts, need to go. Ruzicka isn't there yet, but it's not hard to see him being a viable option at 3C. Monahan's 6ish million off the books would give us ~$11 million of head room, total. Which maybe still isn't enough. And that's assuming you can move him without taking money back.

Hard to see how this team sticks together, TBH, unless they just qualify Tkachuck and accept he's gone after next year. Thoughts?

They won't.

This happens every year though.

Roster turnover is what happens with a salary cap and having multiple good players. It's just life in the NHL now.

True that one or two "big name" guys will be part of the casualties this time around, but not necessarily core guys. For sure getting out from under the Lucic and Monny AAV will go a long way to alleviating the pinch that BT will find himself in.

Lucic will be easy to trade after July 1, but it will take him to agree to that, which could prove difficult. Flames pay him 3M that day so teams who need to reach the floor can add a 5.25 hit to the books, but only have to pay 1M of real money to him. That will be attractive to a few clubs Im guessing.

Monny is a different kind of problem though. Now he has a lot of rope to play with and get things turned around, but at this point and at his hit, he will be tough to move without a decent add-on. Hopefully TT helps him find his way again which will make everything easier all around.

Of course Johnny can decide to go elsewhere if he wants which makes all these issues moot. Worst case scenario to be sure but very much a real one.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by BigRed

It'll take such a bite out of the team's chemistry. Monahan might not be too missed, but Lucic seems like an important piece. Wish we had him at ~ 2, which is where he belongs at this point in his career.

Gudbranson, assuming he'll sign for around the same as he's making now (1,95) with a bit of term (3 years? 4?) is good value. But you're right, some pretty deep cuts need to happen to preserve the top line and the top 4 D.

And yet, it's not guaranteed that we get worse. We found value for this season. It's not easy, but it can be done again.

[BigRed]

I think the D will survive. Keep the top 4 and Gudbranson and let Mackey and Valimaki rotate the 6th/7th spot and gain some experience. Hopefully one of them can graduate into the top 4 in a couple years.

One way or the other, the forward group is going to change dramatically.

Let's assume the goal is to keep the top 6 intact and Toffoli is the only other given outside of that. If we can lose Monahan's contract, maybe Ruzicka fills his spot between Toffoli and Dube.

Then line 4 becomes a huge question mark, assuming Ruzicka moving up and Lucic and Lewis both gone. Feels like Brett Ritchie might stick around.

EDIT: Is there a strategy to be had in promoting Pelletier to 4C and keeping Lewis another year as a mentor? Lewis has been effective in his role.

[Geeoff]

I think the key will be to win some trades

[devo22]

it's going to be a challenge for sure and we might have to get a bit creative. Will be easier if guys like Valimaki, Mackey and Pelletier can step up and fill some gaps.

[BigRed]

I also wonder if we're now having to choose between Coleman and Toffoli.

[Moneyhands23]

I think it's all possible, but I will be good with 3 of 4 signing and us getting a good return on the guy we can't sign.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

I think it's all possible, but I will be good with 3 of 4 signing and us getting a good return on the guy we can't sign.

Maybe it's Tkachuk, and we go back to Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm.

Honestly, I think Tkachuk will sign his QO and bolt regardless. That's a lot hanging over the team for the year.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Maybe it's Tkachuk, and we go back to Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm.

Honestly, I think Tkachuk will sign his QO and bolt regardless. That's a lot hanging over the team for the year.

Nah. If you move Tkachuk, you can run Gaudreau-Lindholm-Toffoli (Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman). Still a strong top 6. And if Tkachuk signs QO, you've at least got him for one more year.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by BigRed

Not to be a downer, but this looks like a tough summer for the Flames. No surprise, I know, but I'm starting to think about what needs to happen.

Flames will definitely not re-sign Ritchie (800K), Richardson (800K) and they finally get out from under the Brouwer buyout ($1.5 mln). That's $3.1 mln in the black with no impact on the roster.

Obviously, that's not close to what we need to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington. Plus the entire 3rd pair of Gudbranson and Zadorov are expiring. They're not due the same kind of raise that those top 4 are, but Gudbranson seems to have at least earned his QO.

I suspect Zadorov will be lost as a UFA, which means Valimaki and/or Mackey will play next year, which saves another $2ish mln. But we still need way more room to sign those guys.

Which makes me think that either Monahan or Lucic, with their big contracts, need to go. Ruzicka isn't there yet, but it's not hard to see him being a viable option at 3C. Monahan's 6ish million off the books would give us ~$11 million of head room, total. Which maybe still isn't enough. And that's assuming you can move him without taking money back.

Hard to see how this team sticks together, TBH, unless they just qualify Tkachuck and accept he's gone after next year. Thoughts?

Just because Ritchie and Richardson arent resigned doesnt mean their money puts the Cap in the Black, they will be replaced by players of at least equal cap hit. So their contracts are a wash.

[kyuss275]

With Mangiapane agent pretty much stating he wants to play hard ball , my guess Toffoli is his replacement next year. As of right now Mony needs to improve a lot or he will be bought out .

[Strange Brew]

Monahan has been playing hurt the last few years. He needs a full year to recover once this season is done. Should be good to go around April/May 2023.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

With Mangiapane agent pretty much stating he wants to play hard ball , my guess Toffoli is his replacement next year. As of right now Mony needs to improve a lot or he will be bought out .

I think and hope this will be it. Gaudreau and Tkachuk sign, move out Monahan, Mangiapanes money is used on Kylington and towards our 5-6 defencemen

[SebC]

We have an extra top 6 winger - I can definitely see moving on from one of them for a stronger D.