2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[really?]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't disagree, but what signs are there that the organization is suddenly changing it's approach?

I appreciate the pragmatism in your voice, and concur that organizational history doesn't suggest a change in direction, but unless the powers that be have absolutely disconnected their collective thinkers, there is no way to deny that an iceberg is directly in their path. Regardless of the degree to which the cap goes up, there can't be a world where guys like Lindholm, Hanifin, Toffoli, Dube and others will soon get the market value contracts they will be seeking with Kadri and Huberdeau on the books long term. Fiscal reality dictates that this is highly unlikely. That would be stacking aging, expensive component on top of aging, expensive component without any real expectation of improvement. That is Oileresque activity without Oiler level talent. They have to see this. (hope, hope...)

I guess that is what I have as a fan, hope. This team has reached the point where they will end up looking absolutely foolish if they persist in committing significant resources to players who are apex/approaching post apex. While it may be difficult to take a step back, that's better than walking off the edge of a cliff in a couple of years. Assuming Backlund would like to remain a Flame for his career, I believe it would be prudent to deal both Toffoli and Lindholm before the season starts. We have seen the best of both players, and while they are both good players, their greatest value at this point is what they offer in terms of accelerating the next competitive window for this team. The Flames have some good, young peripheral components coming through the ranks, but must find a way to find 2-3 1st line/ top pairing players to build around. While it's not a given, the draft is the best way to find these players, and the Flames need to be willing to absorb the risk that comes with investing in the draft if they truly want to escape the vortex of mediocrity they have been in for decades.

So in response to your sentiments, yeah, I would imagine the Flames are plotting to find a way to re-sign Lindhholm, Toffoli, and Hanifin long term, in an effort to chase something which has been unobtainable with these guys being affordable, and at their peak. My hope is that their is a growing voice within the decision making ranks that is open to actually appreciating the reality around them.

[Naitix]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

You don't move out good players like Toffoli just to get faster. Faster is great, but if it doesn't at least match his production, what's the point? You replace guys like Lucic and Lewis with speed. Way less risk.

Because you want to sell high on your players, as good as Tofolli has been this season it’s because there was nobody else who would step up. I don’t think he comes close to replicating this season next year, he is turning 31 this year and we won’t be re-singing him, so might as well trade

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

It’s totally going to happen again

Not all of them but I've resigned to the fact that at least three of Toffoli, Tanev, Backlund, Lindholm, Hanafin, Zadorov will go to free agency without the Flames recouping any assets. It's just how Edwards rolls. Great businessman, terrible NHL owner.

[TOfan]

I think the Flames need answers this offseason on Hanifin and Lindholm. If they can’t get a commitment from those two, you have to move them. And it probably sets the course on the others.

I would try to resign Backlund, maybe you can get him on a 3-4 year term around $4.5M/year. Give him the C and full no move if that helps keep dollars down.

The rest, Toffoli, Tanev, Zadorov, I would be comfortable going into the year and seeing where you’re at come deadline. That said, if someone gives you an offer that makes sense during the summer, then you take it.

The one thing that would completely befuddle me is if the Flames head into next year without having dealt with at least half of the 6 UFA’s.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I would try to resign Backlund, maybe you can get him on a 3-4 year term around $4.5M/year. Give him the C and full no move if that helps keep dollars down.

Backlund has been Calgary’s best player this year, along with Taffoli.

He won’t be taking a payout in any short term deal as a UFA.

Plus, he’s rumoured to be one of the players at odds with Sutter who wants out.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Backlund has been Calgary’s best player this year, along with Taffoli.

He won’t be taking a payout in any short term deal as a UFA.

Plus, he’s rumoured to be one of the players at odds with Sutter who wants out.

Backlund is also 34. He can't expect more than 4 years on a deal. and while he's been good, contacts aren't based on one year production despite how this board sees things. His production is likely going to drop every single year from 35-39, if he makes it that far. He's also the most likely to want to stick in Calgary.

None of the others have any particular ties to Calgary. Toffoli has played most of his career elsewhere. Lindholm has played half elsewhere, and his big linemates have departed.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Backlund has been Calgary’s best player this year, along with Taffoli.

He won’t be taking a payout in any short term deal as a UFA.

Plus, he’s rumoured to be one of the players at odds with Sutter who wants out.

Backland’s rumoured to one of the players at odds with Sutter? Where’s this coming from?

It’s practically publicly acknowledged that Kadri and Sutter aren’t on the same page, same with Huberdeau. There’s been some acknowledgment from the Steinberg that the Flames don’t have a good indication on what Lindholm is thinking, so it seems people are putting two and two together and think Lindholm isn’t inclined to resign if Sutter is the coach.

I haven’t heard or seen any rumours about Backlund though. On the topic of Stienberg he did mention that Backliund said to him he has no interest in leaving the Flames at their poker tournament and the contract terms I laid out are basically his thoughts as well.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I’m not sure why plenty think with a good Markstrom they’re in the mix. This team until this week had zero third period comebacks. They’re just not a contender despite being good on paper. And they’ll be a year older next year with long term contracts on aging players. The only positive to me is the possibility of getting a good return for those whose value totally hasn’t been fallen down the tubes. If they sell mid on Huberdeau, & Kadri this off-season they can undo years of pain while teams think they’re getting them on a slight discount. Leaving things to hopes isn’t a plan.

Markstrom is the single most important factor in this team's shortfall. Others can share in the blame, but it has been a disaster in goal.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Backlund is also 34. He can't expect more than 4 years on a deal. and while he's been good, contacts aren't based on one year production despite how this board sees things. His production is likely going to drop every single year from 35-39, if he makes it that far. He's also the most likely to want to stick in Calgary.

None of the others have any particular ties to Calgary. Toffoli has played most of his career elsewhere. Lindholm has played half elsewhere, and his big linemates have departed.

I’d bet Zadorov and Toffoli would want to stay. Feels like they are in the pro sutter camp.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I’d bet Zadorov and Toffoli would want to stay. Feels like they are in the pro sutter camp.

I don't doubt they like it here. I suspect Zadorov won't get better offers - I like him but he's nothing special for other teams. But Toffoli will go where the dough is at this point - he'd be foolish not to and the Flames can't afford much. He will be 31 in a few days, he's gonna beat his career high by 20 or so. This is a sell high if there ever was.

[NegativeSpace]

Not poking at anyone in particular in this discussion. Every time I read the term "asset management" it feels incomplete.



I feel like "asset management" is often trotted out along the lines of "they have to trade Toffoli because he's never going to do better than this year". That is probably true (although we are seeing more and more older players defy the odds so I am starting to wonder if there is hidden value in the league in identifying the right older players). However, most GMs in the league probably think the same thing as any fan on a message board. Obviously, if the offer is a first and a good prospect, then the Flames probably look hard at that given their cap issues. If the offer is a third round pick and a B-level prospect, do you trade a player who's good in the room and out-performing his contract? Or do you hope that you can sign them? There is more nuance in these decisions.



However, I suspect that the organization and GM (whoever they will be) - having been burned with both Johnny and Matthew this last summer - will be keen to try to avoid that situation again where they are having to completely reorganize their roster. The amount of turnover and inability to get chemistry through the season (I suspect) will be high on the list of things that the Flames look to improve over the off-season.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I'd be shocked if they could trade Kadri or Huberdeau.

First of all, I think it’s unlikely the Flames trade either player but I think it’s pretty hyperbolic to say they couldn’t.

Less than a year ago Huberdeau was second in league scoring. Kadri was playing a pivotal role on a team the went on to win the cup. NHL GM’s aren’t gold fish, they have memories. There are 31 other GM’s out there contending with their own unique circumstances and expectations from ownership’s.

Kadri would be more difficult due to age and term of the contract but I think you could make a pretty reasonable case for a Huberdeau to Montreal.

You would have to think Montreal is going to be looking to make a push for the playoffs next year. The market will demand it. They have Drouin coming off the books freeing up $5.5. Depending on how much the cap jumps, they probably only have to clear $2-4 million more. That could either happen in a trade with the Flames or another team. Guys they probably could move include Hoffman, Anderson, Dvorak, Edmonson or Armia. That would clear the space.

Why would Montreal want Huberdeau? Well, seems pretty straight forward. Top line French Canadian LW who slots in with Suzuki and Caufield. Of course Montreal would want that. Would Huberdeau? Yeah, probably. I think it was rumoured before last seasons trade that Montreal had interest. Would Montreal be deterred by his performance this season? I doubt it. I’d bet they think ‘let’s get Huberdeau here under St.Louis, and away from Sutter, and I bet he returns to 100pts/season’.

What does a deal look like? First of all the Flsmes need to get their house in order. Is Treliving still here (aside: my money says no), is Sutter, does the new regime want Huberdeau? For the purposes of this discussion let’s say the Flames decide to move him. I’ll suggest:

Huberdeau for Hoffman (short term LW top 6 replacement), 2023 first round pick (higher of the two they have), 2023 second round pick, 2024 first round pick (this may get complicated due to the Monahan trade but I’ll assume they can do it).

Probably way off base but I think trading Huberdeau might not be as hard as some others believe.

[memphusk]

Montreal isn't giving up any picks for Huberdeau. 10.5 a year for the next 8 years? Nope.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by memphusk

Montreal isn't giving up any picks for Huberdeau. 10.5 a year for the next 8 years? Nope.

I see you’ve thought about this for four seconds. Care to elaborate?

Again, each team has unique circumstances. If the Habs want to add a top line LW (which it looks like could slot into third lineup very nicely), what are the other options? I’m sure there are going to be others but are they better than Huberdeau? Have to think having a French Canadian superstar locked in is pretty appealing to the Canadiens.

Also; if I’m not mistaken the Habs have had a boat load of picks in the not too distant past and they’re still missing the playoffs regularly. Why, at this point, would they be so reluctant to trade picks to get better now?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

First of all, I think it’s unlikely the Flames trade either player but I think it’s pretty hyperbolic to say they couldn’t.

Less than a year ago Huberdeau was second in league scoring. Kadri was playing a pivotal role on a team the went on to win the cup. NHL GM’s aren’t gold fish, they have memories. There are 31 other GM’s out there contending with their own unique circumstances and expectations from ownership’s.

Huberdeau for Hoffman (short term LW top 6 replacement), 2023 first round pick (higher of the two they have), 2023 second round pick, 2024 first round pick (this may get complicated due to the Monahan trade but I’ll assume they can do it).

Probably way off base but I think trading Huberdeau might not be as hard as some others believe.

Part of the reason UFA contracts are dumb is the team gives no assets to acquire them. No way Montreal would do that. Anderson + Gallagher or something.

If Huberdeau bounces back to a 100 point player next season then maybe they could get some value.

Karlsson didn't get traded and he is having a heck of a season.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I see you’ve thought about this for four seconds. Care to elaborate?
Also; if I’m not mistaken the Habs have had a boat load of picks in the not too distant past and they’re still missing the playoffs regularly. Why, at this point, would they be so reluctant to trade picks to get better now?

They'd likely have no one to bid against. Calgary trades that contract just to get out from under it and go a different direction. The teams that Huberdeau would waive for and the teams that could fit him under the cap are limited and it might even just be Montreal and that's assuming Huberdeau even wants to go back and play in Montreal.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Part of the reason UFA contracts are dumb is the team gives no assets to acquire them. No way Montreal would do that. Anderson + Gallagher or something.

If Huberdeau bounces back to a 100 point player next season then maybe they could get some value.

Karlsson didn't get traded and he is having a heck of a season.

How do you know Montreal wouldn’t do that? How?

I mentioned Anderson as a potential player they could move and it’s been rumoured Treliving has coveted him previously. Personally, I would go with Hoffman because he replaces Huberdeau as a LHS in the top six and only has two years remaining. Plus, if there’s a new GM, he may not look at Anderson as favourably. I don’t think Gallagher is a player the Habs would want to move.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by TOfan

First of all, I think it’s unlikely the Flames trade either player but I think it’s pretty hyperbolic to say they couldn’t.

Less than a year ago Huberdeau was second in league scoring. Kadri was playing a pivotal role on a team the went on to win the cup. NHL GM’s aren’t gold fish, they have memories. There are 31 other GM’s out there contending with their own unique circumstances and expectations from ownership’s.

Kadri would be more difficult due to age and term of the contract but I think you could make a pretty reasonable case for a Huberdeau to Montreal.

You would have to think Montreal is going to be looking to make a push for the playoffs next year. The market will demand it. They have Drouin coming off the books freeing up $5.5. Depending on how much the cap jumps, they probably only have to clear $2-4 million more. That could either happen in a trade with the Flames or another team. Guys they probably could move include Hoffman, Anderson, Dvorak, Edmonson or Armia. That would clear the space.

Why would Montreal want Huberdeau? Well, seems pretty straight forward. Top line French Canadian LW who slots in with Suzuki and Caufield. Of course Montreal would want that. Would Huberdeau? Yeah, probably. I think it was rumoured before last seasons trade that Montreal had interest. Would Montreal be deterred by his performance this season? I doubt it. I’d bet they think ‘let’s get Huberdeau here under St.Louis, and away from Sutter, and I bet he returns to 100pts/season’.

What does a deal look like? First of all the Flsmes need to get their house in order. Is Treliving still here (aside: my money says no), is Sutter, does the new regime want Huberdeau? For the purposes of this discussion let’s say the Flames decide to move him. I’ll suggest:

Huberdeau for Hoffman (short term LW top 6 replacement), 2023 first round pick (higher of the two they have), 2023 second round pick, 2024 first round pick (this may get complicated due to the Monahan trade but I’ll assume they can do it).

Probably way off base but I think trading Huberdeau might not be as hard as some others believe.

I think you have all the right ideas. One key is in order to sell other teams on a possible bounce back season, you have to sell this off-season. If you have another #### season, no team will pay dick, and we'll be stuck with 8 year contracts paying franchise money. Sure it wouldn't be selling high by ridding ourselves this off-season, but the downside is significant if they hold those assets the way they're trending.

[Bonded]

Can't quote but Gallagher + Anderson would just be for cap purposes. Hoffman would be the better deal for the Flames.

Why would Montreal give up more value than they'd need to?

Trades with large contracts are pretty rare. Subban for Weber and Kessel are the only ones I can remember off the top of my head. Kessel went to a contending team and got a late first and spare parts and that was with retention.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I see you’ve thought about this for four seconds. Care to elaborate?

Again, each team has unique circumstances. If the Habs want to add a top line LW (which it looks like could slot into third lineup very nicely), what are the other options? I’m sure there are going to be others but are they better than Huberdeau? Have to think having a French Canadian superstar locked in is pretty appealing to the Canadiens.

Also; if I’m not mistaken the Habs have had a boat load of picks in the not too distant past and they’re still missing the playoffs regularly. Why, at this point, would they be so reluctant to trade picks to get better now?

I would think the Habs would jump at the chance. And I would think the Flames' 1st from the Monahan trade would be an obvious and likely piece of the return.