Eastern Bias exists - No Gaudreau for Hart

[powderjunkie]

Hockey needs a version of Bill Simmons. Neurotic levels of detail/historical consideration, but in a conversational sports-bar format; he really talks it out/breaks it down with knowledgeable guests in his podcast format. It's clearly still just his opinion, but it's so well considered it probably challenges the thinking of a lot of other voters to really justify their votes.

The NBA this year had a tight MVP race, and it was really entertaining and informative to hear Simmons and Russillo work through it on multiple podcasts near the end of the season.

Maybe something like this does exist and I'm just not aware? But if so it's not authoritative enough to undercut some of the BS narratives that pop up.

Marek and Wyshynski probably got the closest to this sort of thing, though I'm not sure they ever went deep in trophy discussions or All-Star Teams (not related to All-Star game)

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

1st in EV points, points per MP and +/-

AKA the Holy Trinity of statistical categories.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Cole436

I know this won't be a popular opinion, however I don't think Iginla should have won that year. I feel you can't be the most valuable player in the league to your team if you still missed the playoffs and didn't achieve the bare minimum for team success.

Normally yes, but the story was the one Montreal writer didn't even put Iggy on his list at all, whereas all other writers league wide had Theodore and Iggy 1 and 2 in Hart voting.



If the writer put Iggy as #2, he would have won. That's how close the voting was and that's how goddam dominant his season was.

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Normally yes, but the story was the one Montreal writer didn't even put Iggy on his list at all, whereas all other writers league wide had Theodore and Iggy 1 and 2 in Hart voting.



If the writer put Iggy as #2, he would have won. That's how close the voting was and that's how goddam dominant his season was.

Yeah I remember the story. As much as I would have loved Iggy to have that in his collection, I just don't agree with a non-playoff player winning it.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by btimbit

It's a reason why I hate that journalists get to vote on some awards. So many reporters are just terrible, and absolute homers

Yup. I'm still not over Iggy 2002. 52 goals when nobody else even cracked 40, and Quebec dude not even putting him in his TOP 3?!?!? FOH...

[looooob]

01-02 was a crazy year


yes I get the 'non-playoff' argument but that Flames team was sooooo bad. they scored 201 goals and Iggy scored 52 and had points in 96 of them!!!


It was peak year of the goalie. Theodore was amazing and carried the Habs, but you had Roy who was also amazing (Theodore remarkably tied Iggy in Hart votes and Roy in Vezina votes). Roy was actually named first team all star goalie. Sean Burke was right there with Theodore and Roy (3 of the 4 top Hart vote getters were goalies. Nabokov, Khabibulin and Hasek were also strong that year


so you had Theodore as the strongest (or co-strongest with Roy) of a dominant goalie crop, or Iginla as a dominant outlier in a year where offence was surpressed

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Cole436

Yeah I remember the story. As much as I would have loved Iggy to have that in his collection, I just don't agree with a non-playoff player winning it.

I agree with the non playoff thing.

But if all the writers had them 1&2, then one writer didn’t even have him on the ballot, then that’s shenanigans.

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by looooob

01-02 was a crazy year


yes I get the 'non-playoff' argument but that Flames team was sooooo bad. they scored 201 goals and Iggy scored 52 and had points in 96 of them!!!


It was peak year of the goalie. Theodore was amazing and carried the Habs, but you had Roy who was also amazing (Theodore remarkably tied Iggy in Hart votes and Roy in Vezina votes). Roy was actually named first team all star goalie. Sean Burke was right there with Theodore and Roy (3 of the 4 top Hart vote getters were goalies. Nabokov, Khabibulin and Hasek were also strong that year


so you had Theodore as the strongest (or co-strongest with Roy) of a dominant goalie crop, or Iginla as a dominant outlier in a year where offence was surpressed

It's crazy how much the game has changed. Look at the goalies that year, Roy, Hasek, Brodeur, Giguere, Theodore, Turco. It's almost unbelievable to think how dominant netminders were at one time in the league.

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I agree with the non playoff thing.

But if all the writers had them 1&2, then one writer didn’t even have him on the ballot, then that’s shenanigans.

Agreed. He was robbed of it due to some assclown, but Theodore dragging the Habs to the 8th seed would have taken my vote.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think we all know here that McDavid isn't the best player in this province.



But let the baby have another individual award. We all know that its all about him.

He can put it on his coffee table, a bland concrete slab

[Hockey_Ninja]

Meh. It would’ve been great to see Johnny as a finalist but I ain’t losing sleep over it

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by looooob

01-02 was a crazy year


yes I get the 'non-playoff' argument but that Flames team was sooooo bad. they scored 201 goals and Iggy scored 52 and had points in 96 of them!!!


It was peak year of the goalie. Theodore was amazing and carried the Habs, but you had Roy who was also amazing (Theodore remarkably tied Iggy in Hart votes and Roy in Vezina votes). Roy was actually named first team all star goalie. Sean Burke was right there with Theodore and Roy (3 of the 4 top Hart vote getters were goalies. Nabokov, Khabibulin and Hasek were also strong that year


so you had Theodore as the strongest (or co-strongest with Roy) of a dominant goalie crop, or Iginla as a dominant outlier in a year where offence was surpressed

01-02 was the second lowest league-scoring year since 1956 (03-04 being the lowest).


Top 5 goal scorers by year in dead-puck era (leader):
97-98 = (Selanne 73gp) 52 52 51 51 45
98-99 = (Selanne 75gp) 47 44 44 44 43
99-00 = (Bure 74gp) 58 44 43 42* 42 (*Jagr in 63gp)
00-01 = (Bure) 59 54 52 45 44
01-02 = (Iggy) 52 41 41 41 40
02-03 = (Hejduk) 50 48 46 45 44
03-04 = (Iggy/Kovy/Nash) 41 41 41 38 38

So Bure had a bigger differential in 2000 (Jagr was on pace for 55, but Bure was also on pace for 64) and finished 3rd in Hart voting behind Pronger and Jagr.

The next year Sakic won the Hart with 54G 118p. Lemieux finished 2nd (76p in 43gp - 145pt pace), Jagr 3rd (52g 121p). Bure finished 9th in voting, receiving no 1st or 2nd place votes.

Obviously Iggy was a more complete player than Bure, but there was some precedent in not valuing high goals on bad teams. Of course Iggy led the league with 96 pts with Naslund (90) and Bertuzzi (85) 2nd and 3rd.

My most shocking TIL is that Iginla actually received 3 more total votes than Theodore that year...so presumably 4 voters left Theodore off their ballots?

[looooob]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Obviously Iggy was a more complete player than Bure, but there was some precedent in not valuing high goals on bad teams. Of course Iggy led the league with 96 pts with Naslund (90) and Bertuzzi (85) 2nd and 3rd.

My most shocking TIL is that Iginla actually received 3 more total votes than Theodore that year...so presumably 4 voters left Theodore off their ballots?

yeah I think that's the point, not only did Iggy have a big goal differential but also did lead in points (although Bure was right in there too- 2nd place I think?)


and yes Theodore was left off several ballots as I recall, which is strange (although I don't believe systematic- these weren't all Calgary voters or something) I think its due to a) goalies splitting the votes- again 3 of them were in the top 4 and in fact all 3 of Theodore , Roy and Burke got some FIRST PLACE hart votes, and b) some voters ignoring or downplaying goalies for Hart (as they do for Dman) as they have their 'own trophy', I do think that might a thing for some

[powderjunkie]

I think it's also interesting to see the context of the previous years. 2002 was the first year in a loooooooong time with a sub 100pt Art Ross Winner (who played 82ish games - Jagr won it with 96pts in 63gp in 2000), so the numbers didn't jump off the page (at least not for a good reason)

[djsFlames]

Awards for toddlers.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by jammies

Matthews should win. If you watch Toronto games, you'll see he's become decent defensively

DECENT?!

He's one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL this season. The Bruins guys are on their own level, but they also support each other, so there's an argument for Matthews for Selke. Dude was unreal this season. Should absolutely get the Hart.

... But I still hope the Leafs lose.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Matthews was +20
Gaudreau was +64

I want to see Johnny win the Conn Smythe

[dobbles]

As an outsider, I agree with you guys. McDavid did nothing special this year aside from win the points race. We have an award for that, let him have it. Leave him out of the MVP discussion. Gaudreau deserves to be there because his season saw him do things not seen in a few decades such as the insane +/- and ES points. Those are differentiators. 60 goals is a differentiator. Having the best save percentage by a pretty wide margin is a differentiator.


And once and for all can we really just accept that +/- has value as long as its used in context???? It is a great stat for longer term trends and obviously can be brutal on an individual game basis. But when you look at the leaderboard and see that top line in the top 3 positions, that to me is indicative that the line was dominant this year. They were manufacturing goals way more than giving them up. That really says something.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dobbles

As an outsider, I agree with you guys. McDavid did nothing special this year aside from win the points race. We have an award for that, let him have it. Leave him out of the MVP discussion. Gaudreau deserves to be there because his season saw him do things not seen in a few decades such as the insane +/- and ES points. Those are differentiators. 60 goals is a differentiator. Having the best save percentage by a pretty wide margin is a differentiator.


And once and for all can we really just accept that +/- has value as long as its used in context???? It is a great stat for longer term trends and obviously can be brutal on an individual game basis. But when you look at the leaderboard and see that top line in the top 3 positions, that to me is indicative that the line was dominant this year. They were manufacturing goals way more than giving them up. That really says something.

the worst thing that happened to plus minus was that someone labelled it a flawed stat - yeah, it is, but so is every hockey stat. They all suffer from the same problem, which is that it really matters who you play with, who you play against, and how you're utilized. Plus, there is a significant 'luck' factor.

All true. All true about plus minus. So yes, it isn't perfect.

But that doesn't mean that there isn't information there. It is just up to the user to extract it properly.

When your numbers, over an entire season, are as separated from the pack as Lindholm's line is from the entire league - and from the past 25 seasons as well - it is incredibly obtuse to simply dismiss that as 'plus minus is a flawed stat'.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Probably the second time he finishes fourth. If you only look at offensive numbers, I don't know that McDavid's eight extra points trumps all the other categories that Gaudreau beats him in.

Great season for 13 and this doesn't diminish it any.


If everyone throws their sticks into a pile at centre ice and you're picking players for a must win game, at what point do you pick Gaudreau? Not sure i really know the answer to that, but probably not first.

I'd probably pick Kucherov first, but he doesn't get the Hart because he didn't play the whole season, so it'd be a moot point.

Gaudreau was the best hockey player in the NHL this year who played the whole year. He would have won the art ross if we implemented the "double first unit PP" style of certain teams as well.

Period.

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, the only argument for McDavid over Gaudreau this year is the 8 more points.

But those 8 points are entirely explained by the extra 60 minutes of PP time that McDavid got. Give Gaudreau another 60 minutes of PP and their offensive numbers become even.

And Gaudreau was better in every other way and in any other metric.