2020 US Election Prediction Thread

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Should just make this into the GT. Keep the clutter down.

EDIT: Too late.

[edslunch]

Biden wins with < 300 EC votes, so relatively close, but the overall process goes surprisingly normally. Turns out we and the media have blown things out of proportion or Trump is unwilling or unable to interfere.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Just wishing all our American friends the best today, and remember if you haven't done so already, please get out to vote.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Just wishing all our American friends the best today, and remember if you haven't done so already, please get out to vote.

Voted weeks ago from Cambodia. Hopefully my vote counts.

Too superstitious to make a prediction after what happened last time.

[OMG!WTF!]

The stock market is very strong today. I think that looks good for a decisive win. And I can't imagine anyone thinks it will be a decisive Trump win.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

In the United States, anyone can register as a Republican/Democrat and vote in the party's primary to choose the candidate. I don't even think you need to buy a party membership to do so (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

Depends on the state. 23 states have open or semi-open primaries for at least one party.

[tripin_billie]

Wrong thread... My prediction is Biden wins Texas... Nuff said!

[1991 Canadian]

Originally Posted by Shin Pad

Mass civil unrest - no matter who wins.

This is the only prediction I'd put money on.

8 percent of Republicans and 8 percent of Democrats did not respond "Never" to the question "how much do you feel is justified for your party to use violence in advancing political goals?" That is an worrying amount of Americans that feel justified in political violence.

Oh wait, sorry, those numbers were from November 2017. As of October 2020, those responses are now up to 36 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of Democrats supporting "a little", "a moderate amount", "a lot" or "a great deal" of political violence.

I predict it will be a Biden win, but there will be an unprecedented fallout in the streets and in the courts. It's going to be a long November.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

This might help get us a clue on who will win on election night:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/u...-forecast.html

Then again, depending on the results, it might not.

Great link. Thanks
Will be following early results here. Times was great last time.

Prediction: civil unrest does not materialize.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by 1991 Canadian

This is the only prediction I'd put money on.

8 percent of Republicans and 8 percent of Democrats did not respond "Never" to the question "how much do you feel is justified for your party to use violence in advancing political goals?" That is an worrying amount of Americans that feel justified in political violence.

Oh wait, sorry, those numbers were from November 2017. As of October 2020, those responses are now up to 36 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of Democrats supporting "a little", "a moderate amount", "a lot" or "a great deal" of political violence.

I predict it will be a Biden win, but there will be an unprecedented fallout in the streets and in the courts. It's going to be a long November.

Pretty dire prediction. Personally I think a lot of people are talk. I think with Trump winning and being in power the right wingers have had their fill and if they lose I don’t think there will be much unrest. Now if Trump wins, I think all those groups that were hurt by his words and actions will really take to the streets because four years is a long time with him around pulling the same games.

[octothorp]

Biden wins 306-232, with Pennslvania, North Carolina, and Arizona being the big pickups for the Democrats.

Senate
Colorado - Democrats
Michigan- Democrats
Maine** - Democrats
North Carolina - Democrats
Arizona- Democrats
Iowa - Republicans
Alabama - Republicans
South Carolina - Democrats
Montana - Democrats
Kansas - Republicans
Georgia* - Republicans in a runoff
Georgia (special)* - Democrats in a runoff


Biggest surprise: Democrats winning SC and Montana in the senate.

When will the election be called:
2 am EST. Arizona and Wisconsin's calls are the decisive ones, with Michigan and Pennsylvania still unknown at that point.

[1991 Canadian]

Originally Posted by fleury

Pretty dire prediction. Personally I think a lot of people are talk. I think with Trump winning and being in power the right wingers have had their fill and if they lose I don’t think there will be much unrest. Now if Trump wins, I think all those groups that were hurt by his words and actions will really take to the streets because four years is a long time with him around pulling the same games.

Strongly disagree. This is the side that has tried running over protestors, killed protestors, tried to run a Biden campaign bus off the road, tried to kidnap a democratic governor, feels emboldened by the lack of repercussion from the police, feels victimized by masks and has a leader that is willing to fan the flames

They have different reasons, but I think both sides are poised for large scale unrest following this election.

I hope my prediction is wrong but something just doesn't seem right leading up to this election.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

So to avoid clutter, let’s keep this thread for predictions only, and have the general election discussion in the GT thread.

I closed the old US politics thread just so we don’t have the same discussion in three separate places.

[united]

Updated to show some interesting market movement. Biden's win probability has increased but the market sees the Electoral Vote spread getting tighter as Biden is widening his lead in states that were leans previously, while toss-ups are shifting slightly to Trump. Of course, the closer you get to the result the tighter the variance is so not unexpected.

Also added Georgia and Pennsylvania as they have tightened over night to under -200.

Originally Posted by united

Here's where the betting markets are at at the sharpest book in the World, Pinnacle, vigorish removed:

Presidency
Trump +180 (~35%) \/ +197 (33%) / Biden -205 (~65%) /\ -225 (67%)

Biden over/under 310.5 Electoral votes
Over +110 (~46%) \/ +127 (41%) / Under -129 (~54%) /\ -170 (59%)

Popular vote
Trump +631 (~13%) /\ +590 (14%) / Biden -917 (~87%) \/ -800 (86%)

Arizona
Trump +116 (~44%) /\ -106 (49%) / Biden -141 (~56%) \/ -114 (51%)

Florida
Trump -148 (~57%) /\ -171 (60%) / Biden +122 (~43%) \/ +140 (40%)

Georgia
Trump -161 (62%) / Biden +132 (41%)

North Carolina
Trump -122 (~52.5%) /\ -127 (53%) / Biden +101 (~47.5%) \/ +105 (47%)

Pennsylvania
Trump +148 (38%) / Biden -181 (62%)

[troutman]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Trump will win.

Many of his voters will show up today.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

So now we are beginning to get a better sense of how this is shaping up. There is obviously still some uncertainty and a couple of uncalled races but it appears Joe Biden will win 306 EVs, and will win Georgia and Arizona while losing North Carolina and Florida. He also lost the 2nd district of Maine.

I had him at 307–which isn’t bad. My only “miss” was ME-2, assuming we don’t get any further lead changes.

But before I congratulate myself too hard on that I also guessed Biden would come closer in Texas than he ultimately did. Looks like that state has a ways to go before truly turning “purple.” I also did not think Wisconsin would be as close as it was—that is the state where the polling was most clearly “off”. That’s troubling in part because that was also the case in 2016, which suggests whatever ailed the polls 4 years ago may not have been weighting by education after all.

National polls were... not as bad. Probably off by slightly more than they were in 2016 but when the votes are all tallied (which is going to take a while..) Biden likely wins the popular vote by close to 5%. Polls in the sunbelt, taking the average, did much better than in the rust belt again, with the exception of Florida where they were once again off.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I called them all right except Georgia and Arizona, and given how close the margins are there I don't feel too bad about that.

[FurnaceFace]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Biden wins 306-232, with Pennslvania, North Carolina, and Arizona being the big pickups for the Democrats.

This could be pretty close, Georgia instead of NC. Just a little further south but right next door.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

This could be pretty close, Georgia instead of NC. Just a little further south but right next door.

Yeah unless I’m not remembering someone else, octothorp might be the only one who gets the EV tally exactly right.