2020 US Election Prediction Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by goflamesgo18

Trump Hopefully

The other thread is for what you hope happens.

This thread is for what you THINK will happen.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think it is going to be a lot closer than people think, with allegations of voter suppression, missing mail in votes, incredible numbers of "spoiled" ballots, intimidation.

I don't think the Republicans ever expected to win cleanly, now we just have to see how efficient they are at fixing the election.

And you know some media outlets are going to call states too early, and then when it gets reversed, people will refuse to believe the results.

There are just so many ways this can all go wrong.

[goflamesgo18]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

The other thread is for what you hope happens.

This thread is for what you THINK will happen.

Trump

[Bonded]

Thinking Biden but will be zero surprised if Trump wins

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I was thinking Mussolini.

Mussolini was hanged with his mistress.

If Trump has a mistress she might want to run now.

[bluejays]

Without knowing much about the day to day American politics, if I were a Republican person, as much as I would vote for Trump, I'd be so sick of hearing the bashing and the back and forth for another four years. The guy has said his piece, and though somewhat entertaining with him unprofessionalism, it's too much for another four years. That's how I'd think if I were leaning for Republican, and I can imagine many people being this way recently. Trump's just become too much.


I still don't quite get politics where Biden and Trump are your best representatives in your country. Their VP's aren't any better. While Canadian politics isn't as bad, the same can be said to a different degree. Everyone should be embarrassed that the elite dictate policy for everyone and there isn't any choice otherwise.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by fleury

Without knowing much about the day to day American politics, if I were a Republican person, as much as I would vote for Trump, I'd be so sick of hearing the bashing and the back and forth for another four years. The guy has said his piece, and though somewhat entertaining with him unprofessionalism, it's too much for another four years. That's how I'd think if I were leaning for Republican, and I can imagine many people being this way recently. Trump's just become too much.


I still don't quite get politics where Biden and Trump are your best representatives in your country. Their VP's aren't any better. While Canadian politics isn't as bad, the same can be said to a different degree. Everyone should be embarrassed that the elite dictate policy for everyone and there isn't any choice otherwise.

In Canada, anyone is welcome to purchase a party membership and vote for the leader. In the United States, anyone can register as a Republican/Democrat and vote in the party's primary to choose the candidate. I don't even think you need to buy a party membership to do so (someone correct me if I'm wrong). It's fiction to state that "the elite" decide who is running. For better or worse, Biden and Trump were who their respective parties chose to nominate in a fair and democratic process.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

In Canada, anyone is welcome to purchase a party membership and vote for the leader. In the United States, anyone can register as a Republican/Democrat and vote in the party's primary to choose the candidate. I don't even think you need to buy a party membership to do so (someone correct me if I'm wrong). It's fiction to state that "the elite" decide who is running. For better or worse, Biden and Trump were who their respective parties chose to nominate in a fair and democratic process.

Most know more than I do when it comes to this stuff, but history has shown that it's an elite person who's brought in. Elite as in, and upper class wealthy individual. I guess logically it's a democratic process, but I guess what I'm getting at is, when was the last time a common man (let's say someone who makes under $200K), a candidate? And $200K is a high salary. I think that's the part that irks me. I see that craziness in the States more than Canada, but Canada's not too far off. Maybe my original verbiage is off but this is what I'm trying to say.

[marsplasticeraser]

Biden wins with 339 electoral college votes. Texas is a very narrow win for trump. Enormous turnout is the key story and Biden outperforms most polls.

Dems take house

Senate 50:50.

There will be some serious shenanigans by trump about handing over power. I can’t see him meeting with Biden. Still not sure if he will hand over power. Guys like trump would rather take everybody down with him.

[Red]

Originally Posted by fleury

Most know more than I do when it comes to this stuff, but history has shown that it's an elite person who's brought in. Elite as in, and upper class wealthy individual. I guess logically it's a democratic process, but I guess what I'm getting at is, when was the last time a common man (let's say someone who makes under $200K), a candidate? And $200K is a high salary. I think that's the part that irks me. I see that craziness in the States more than Canada, but Canada's not too far off. Maybe my original verbiage is off but this is what I'm trying to say.

Not many people want a regular guy running a country. A guy to have a beer with is great and all but in the end you want people that know how to play politics.

[browna]

Biden but not as convincing as many people want.

For all the bluster and everything else he brings as part personality, part showman, part egomaniac Trump, obviously polarizing, he’s been elected 4 years ago because more people then the media would have you believe 4 years back, were sick of politicians and and the clandestine type society of privilege, the type that can elevate the wife of a former president the top candidate for a party as the best option.

Trump has shaken things up in general when it comes to politics and I think that’s a good thing. He won’t win this year simply because it’s not Clinton he’s against. I am somewhat surprised his campaigning, from the little I’ve seen, hasn’t focused on him once again being the “outsider”. It worked against Clinton for the distaste of her that many had for her as a candidate for the reasons mentioned above, that he was a better option.

The same message for Trump could work against Biden, though he is a bit more likeable in some regards then Clinton, is a life long politician and has more then a few politician skeletons over the years that were swept away in the above mentioned secret society that politicians, certainly back 20+ years ago, were able to hide behind.

Trump, backhandedly attempted this with the Biden family allegations, and trying to attack Biden in debates asking him why he made some laws and didnt act as swiftly under the Obama administration as he promises now, but it hasn’t been delivered the same way that got people to think about the Anti Clinton vote which helped Trump out in 2016.

That vote is still there in pockets of undecided people, but due to the other option this time not being Clinton, combined with tiresome Trump antics for 4 years which often go over the top, and some of the positive things his polices actually have done, get lost in the circus, that moderate voter who voted for Trump for those reasons, likely won’t vote for him in the same way 4 years on....but, that’s hardly an endorsement of Biden.

[1qqaaz]

I believe that whoever wins will have at least 290 electoral votes. Wouldn't be surprised to see the rust belt go the same way.

My area is heavily Democratic and I would expect protests, and possibly riots, if Trump won again.

[JBR]

279 Trump
259 Biden

No allegiance either way. Just playing a hunch with some states on the CNN electoral map predictor.

[dino7c]

Biden will win

The majority of the write-in and 3rd party votes from last time are going to Biden and I don't think this has been factored in enough. "Trump can't win" had people throwing away their votes. Also turnout is UGE

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

Biden wins with 339 electoral college votes. Texas is a very narrow win for trump. Enormous turnout is the key story and Biden outperforms most polls.

Dems take house

Senate 50:50.

There will be some serious shenanigans by trump about handing over power. I can’t see him meeting with Biden. Still not sure if he will hand over power. Guys like trump would rather take everybody down with him.

So this is gonna end like.... Fat Scarface.

[110%]

Trump wins with >304
It's 2020

[GirlySports]

Predicting a Trump win.

Factors.

Desire to reopen schools.
Oil.
Cancel culture.

Dems take the house
Rep hold the Senate 51-49.

[stang]

Trump wins. That’s all I got

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Predicting a Trump win.

Factors.

Desire to reopen schools.
Oil.
Cancel culture.

Dems take the house
Rep hold the Senate 51-49.

This oddly makes me feel better about Biden's chances to win.

[Nyah]

I feel like it's time for a Election Day GT. Someone make it so!