Russia invades Ukraine

[TKB]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It seems too optimistic, and I concur with the cannon fodder take. But, the relative seeming weakness of the Russian war machine (communications are still up in Kiev for f's sake) may give some more fuel to why this is all happening now. Putin knows how dire their situation is and needed something to bluster through.

Having seen this now though, I'm not convinced that Russia could take Europe alone in a conventional fight.

There is zero possibility of Russia being able to take Europe. As many troops/equipment they have, they have such poor leadership/training. They still have the WW2 ideology, just have tons of troops and equipment and toss them into the meat grinder.

[Chingas]

Originally Posted by Itse

Huh. Why is Russia even asking Kazakhstan for troops?

Including Belarusian troops in the attack was a very different matter, as that was just as much about furthering the goal of full integration of Belarus into Russia, AND Belarusian troops are literally right there near the border, and they were presumably prepared to participate.

But why would they be asking Kazakhstan for troops? It's not like Kazakhstan could even move those troops to the front very quickly (so Russians not expecting a quick victory?), and Kazakhstan is still recovering from a borderline revolution just a month ago, so of course they wouldn't be eager to send any troops out of the country right now. Why even ask? For the symbolic value? But again, given Kazakhstans recent history, it seems really unlikely for them to agree. Kazakhstan has huge problems of it's own, many of which are economical, they are absolutely not in a position to get dragged into an international conflict. (Also, the January unrest in Kazakhstan was sparked by gas prices. Can't imagine them being very happy about Putin making things worse on that front.)

This is a weird story, one that would be nice to get confirmation on from non-Western sources, which I'm so far unable to find. Which isn't THAT surprising in itself, as Tokayev wouldn't want to embarrass Putin publicly.

But if true, it's a sign that things are not just "not going as well as hoped", it's a sign of actual desperation from Putin.

I have also read here I think, that Russia hasn't yet asked Kazakhstan. If they did I think that the request is mostly symbolic in nature. I also don't believe for one minute that Nazarbaev isn't still ruling Kazakhstan despite not holding an official position at the moment. I would suspect that Putin and Nazarbaev are close allies as their cooperation was mutuality benificial for quite a few years/decades maybe.
If this becomes a regional war and drags on, I wouldn't be surprised if Kazakhstan is on the Russian side. That being said Kazakhstan like Mongolia serves as a buffer between Russia and China which up until now has left them free from invasion but not free from massive investment in their oil and mineral sector from both Beijing and Moscow.

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I will end this update by saying that I am well aware of the saying "loose lips sink ships". If there is anything in my posts that anyone with any kind of intelligence or military background thinks is inappropriate to post in the slim chance it might put someone in danger, please PM met and let me know. I won't be offended and will immediately edit any of my posts. I don't want to post any detailed locations or photos anymore for that reason, other than this is occurring near Kharkov. However I do know in this digital age that any posts on CP show up on Google, and already had a CP member recognize me on Reddit which is obviously a worldwide platform. I just want to give some updates on my wife's situation with her and her family, being they are in the NE region and their experiences.

Your updates really help humanize this situation, I am so sorry for your wife and her family. I think you're providing a very important view into this horror, much like Acey did with his father and Covid.

[krynski]

Looks like Zelenskiy is still in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497584351026073600?s=21

Also, in regards to FIFA qualifiers:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497589064035409924?s=21

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Was that the general feeling before this that Russia could take? Captain and other military experts?

That Russia could defeat all of Europe without nukes?

Depends on what you mean by defeat all of Europe. During the Cold War, a Soviet conventional victory in Europe would have meant taking Paris. And they probably could have back then. But today, with most of the Warsaw Pact now in NATO, and Russia itself smaller and poorer? Not a chance.

But taking Paris isn’t even in Putin’s wildest dreams. A more relevant question is could Russia take over it’s NATO neighbours and near-neighbours before they were stopped? In the case of the Baltics, almost certainly yes. In the case of Poland, hard to say. Probably not. There’s no scenario where the U.S. doesn’t get involved in a big way if Russian troops are pushing into Poland.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Scathing column in the Guardian on the lack of political will to sanction Russian oligarchs in London:

Begs the question, to what degree is this type of thing going on in Canada?

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by krynski

Looks like Zelenskiy is still in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497584351026073600?s=21

I'm running out of adjectives for this guy.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Murph

Begs the question, to what degree is this type of thing going on in Canada?

With sketchy rich Russians? Not so much I don't think.

But Vancouver is the London equivalent for the sketchy rich Chinese.

[Azure]

If just the US & UK would get involved, the Russian advance would be stopped with a half hour.

Air superiority. All those tank brigades, supply vehicles, heavy armor, artillery....no chance against a carrier strike group and the brunt of the American & UK air power from adjoining countries.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

With sketchy rich Russians? Not so much I don't think.

But Vancouver is the London equivalent for the sketchy rich Chinese.

Yeah - I mean oligarch activity/financial holdings in Canada. I’m just starting to try to find information/educate myself. Anyone know where to get info?

[Azure]

I guess we shouldn't be surprised.

Germany is still blocking EU and NATO allies from sending urgently needed weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, which is trying to defend itself from a multi-front Russian invasion, according to officials from two EU member countries.

It’s an ongoing stance that has bewildered some European officials, especially as numerous Western allies now mobilize to send Ukraine more guns, ammunition and even anti-aircraft defense systems as Russian forces bear down on major Ukrainian cities.

Senior Ukrainian officials have complained bitterly for weeks that Germany was refusing to allow shipments of arms over which it retains legal control because they were manufactured in whole or in part by German companies.

Estonia, in particular, had said it wanted to send old howitzers but was prevented from doing so because of Germany’s refusal to allow the shipment of lethal weapons. Estonia bought the weapons from Finland, which gave its approval, but Germany also has to sign off because it originally sold the howitzers to Finland.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...arms-supplies/

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Azure

If just the US & UK would get involved, the Russian advance would be stopped with a half hour.

Air superiority. All those tank brigades, supply vehicles, heavy armor, artillery....no chance against a carrier strike group and the brunt of the American & UK air power from adjoining countries.

As long as Russia has ICBMs such as, but not limited to this one, all that other superiority is virtually irrelevant. A diplomacy resistant tyrant with a nuke could ostensibly wipe a Seattle off the map.

[White Out 403]

Social media bimbo and general airhead jagmeet Singh says we should sanction poutine. He then corrected himself to the French version of saying poutine.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

I guess we shouldn't be surprised.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...arms-supplies/

This feels like one of those instances you ask for forgiveness later, not permission. Sorry Germany, get bent.

[karl262]

Zelenky tweeted a thank you to Turkey for banning Russian warships passage to the black sea

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Azure

I guess we shouldn't be surprised.



https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...arms-supplies/

It looks like they updated the article as the text to what you linked is now different.

Germany has authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to aid in the fight against Russian invaders, according to two EU officials — marking an abrupt shift in Berlin’s military policy amid pressure from EU and NATO allies.

Until Saturday, Germany had clung to a longstanding practice of not permitting lethal weapons that it controlled to be transferred into a conflict zone.

That stance bewildered some European officials, even more so after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion and launched missile strikes on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

Germany’s shift comes as numerous Western allies are mobilizing to send Ukraine more guns, ammunition and even anti-aircraft defense systems as Russian forces bear down on major Ukrainian cities. The reversal could mean a rapid increase in European military assistance for Ukraine, as large portions of the Continent’s weapons and ammunition are at least in part German-manufactured, giving Berlin legal control over their transfer.

Before Saturday’s turnaround, senior Ukrainian officials had been complaining bitterly for weeks about Germany’s refusal to allow arms shipments to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

It looks like they updated the article as the text to what you linked is now different.

Haha, ya, I read the URL, then clicked the link and the headline is the opposite of the URL.

[Red Slinger]

I spoke to my uncle in Moscow yesterday and he is flabbergasted. A few days before the invasion he was 100% sure that Putin wouldn't invade and that this was all just more posturing. So, he's in shock that Putin has followed through. It doesn't make any sense to him. As soon as it happened he cleaned out all of his bank and credit accounts. He's mentioned that while there are protests they are pretty small and insignificant. Even among his circle of friends (which he refers to as intelligencia) the majority support the invasion. He is very upset about not only the invasion but the response of, what he thinks, is the vast majority of Russians.

That said, he also believes that this is the beginning of the end of Putin. Russians know what Putin is but they have largely supported him because he brought them stability, wealth and relative peace. It's likely that this invasion turns into a long, dragged out affair which, along with sanctions, damages the Russian economy and hurts the middle-class. Once the average Russian is feeling the negative affects of this it likely won't be long before the country turns on him. The danger, as is always the case in Russia or anywhere else with a dictator, is that the next person in charge is even worse.

[Chingas]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

It looks like they updated the article as the text to what you linked is now different.

But they sent those helmets though. The reluctance to properly sanction Russia and send support to Ukraine from many of the power countries in the world is bewildering. I understand that all efforts to avoid a massive multiregional war is prudent, yet the scrambling to make a plan that should have been in place weeks ago leads one to believe that the people in charge of whether the world will be destroyed or not aren't nearly as competent as we'd hope to believe .

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by karl262

Pointman, can you please confirm this?

He can’t.

He’s erm, busy.