Russia invades Ukraine

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Itse

Huh. Why is Russia even asking Kazakhstan for troops?

Including Belarusian troops in the attack was a very different matter, as that was just as much about furthering the goal of full integration of Belarus into Russia, AND Belarusian troops are literally right there near the border, and they were presumably prepared to participate.

But why would they be asking Kazakhstan for troops? It's not like Kazakhstan could even move those troops to the front very quickly (so Russians not expecting a quick victory), and Kazakhstan is still recovering from a borderline revolution just a month ago, so of course they wouldn't be eager to send any troops out of the country right now. Why even ask? For the symbolic value? But again, given Kazakhstans recent history, it seems really unlikely for them to agree. Kazakhstan has huge problems of it's own, many of which are economical, they are absolutely not in a position to get dragged into an international conflict. (Also, the January unrest in Kazakhstan was sparked by gas prices. Can't imagine them being very happy about Putin making things worse on that front.)

This is a weird story, one that would be nice to get confirmation on from non-Western sources, which I'm so far unable to find.

But if true, it's a sign that things are not just "not going as well as hoped", it's a sign of actual desperation from Putin.

BBC reported it a few hours ago, you right though its weird frankly, its not like Putin has seemed to care whether he had support from other ex warsaw pact or random bits of old CCCP, I do wonder if Russian troops are refusing orders now that the scale of what they are involved in becomes clear and so they are casting about for non Russian troops

[PeteMoss]

Cyprus has also signed off on the swift ban. Sounds like Hungary is the last hold out.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by chubeyr1

So the truckers made war and attacked the government? They did not!

I understand some truckers were nut cases. Still no violence.

Government declared a state of emergency. Non violent protest.

We put in harder restrictions to truckers than what we did for Russia.

That is really sad.

Wrong thread for this.

It was a showcase of stupidity by spoiled little first world s###s too stupid to take help from medical professionals. Nothing more.

This is about Ukraine.

[PeteMoss]

Poland to refuse to play world Cup qualifier against Russia.

https://twitter.com/lewy_official/st...6b152ZVVg&s=19

[Itse]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

BBC reported it a few hours ago, you right though its weird frankly, its not like Putin has seemed to care whether he had support from other ex warsaw pact or random bits of old CCCP, I do wonder if Russian troops are refusing orders now that the scale of what they are involved in becomes clear and so they are casting about for non Russian troops

This is a situation where the definition of "Russian" gets complicated. Russia is a large multi-ethnic federation, with about 20% not-ethnic-Russians, and as many have reported, there seem to be plenty of those people among the troops invading Ukraine.

The reports from the civilians make it sound like things are somewhat chaotic among the Russian troops. Lots of reports of small groups of soldiers on foot running around asking for food and directions from the locals, wtf is that?

I mean, I guess that's what you get when a couple of days ago the troops thought they were just participating in exercises.

The situation also makes it absolutely impossible for the Russian officers to maintain control over the information their soldiers are getting. This isn't something like Iraq; every Russian soldier shares at a language with every civilian, they can understand the Ukrainian media perfectly well, and they might even be more exposed to it than their own media right now. The Ukrainian civilians aren't strange and scary, they look like people the soldiers know back home. Every Ukrainian mother that comes raging or begging at them will sound like someone's own mother.

If the conflicts starts to drag on, the troops will inevitably either mingle more and more with the locals as they start to establish bases of operation and settle down, or start hardening themselves and treating all locals as hostiles.

It must be a special kind of hell for the soldiers, and I see a fairly decent chance that Russian troop cohesion might plummet fairly quickly.

If the bodycount among Russian troops starts to go up in a prolonged fight, that can very quickly unite the troops against locals, but that really isn't beneficial either for Putins longterm plans, because it will also harden the locals against Russian rule, and holding on to your win will get difficult.

If the will to fight among Ukrainians is really as high as we are seeing in the media, there's no way this will be over anytime soon. 200.000 soldiers are not nearly enough to contain 44 million people in a huge geographical area.

[holden]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I agree with you about the Ukraine numbers and even a lot of these reports about planes being shot down,etc.

I'd also caution about believing other reports as well. That Russian snake island video of the surrenders is shot in a way where you can't see anyone's face. Could well be staged as well.

Just have to be careful with all info.

That video and audio screamed 'fake'. Lots of others as well. However, there's a good and a bad side to this so f Putin.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Itse

This is a situation where the definition of "Russian" gets complicated. Russia is a large multi-ethnic federation, with about 20% not-ethnic-Russians, and as many have reported, there seem to be plenty of those people among the troops invading Ukraine.

The reports from the civilians make it sound like things are somewhat chaotic among the Russian troops. Lots of reports of small groups of soldiers on foot running around asking for food and directions from the locals, wtf is that?

I mean, I guess that's what you get when a couple of days ago the troops thought they were just participating in exercises.

The situation also makes it absolutely impossible for the Russian officers to maintain control over the information their soldiers are getting. This isn't something like Iraq; every Russian soldier shares at a language with every civilian, they can understand the Ukrainian media perfectly well, and they might even be more exposed to it than their own media right now. The Ukrainian civilians aren't strange and scary, they look like people the soldiers know back home. Every Ukrainian mother that comes raging or begging at them will sound like someone's own mother.

If the conflicts starts to drag on, the troops will inevitably either mingle more and more with the locals as they start to establish bases of operation and settle down, or start hardening themselves and treating all locals as hostiles.

It must be a special kind of hell for the soldiers, and I see a fairly decent chance that Russian troop cohesion might plummet fairly quickly.

If the bodycount among Russian troops starts to go up in a prolonged fight, that can very quickly unite the troops against locals, but that really isn't beneficial either for Putins longterm plans, because it will also harden the locals against Russian rule, and holding on to your win will get difficult.

If the will to fight among Ukrainians is really as high as we are seeing in the media, there's no way this will be over anytime soon. 200.000 soldiers are not nearly enough to contain 44 million people in a huge geographical area.

This also speaks to a complete lack of planning, I suspect the decision to invade was a last minute thing, my guess is up until last week the Generals weren't thinking they were going in, they seem to have no maps, no comm' units, no real planning.

We could actually be watching the end of Putin

[Itse]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

This also speaks to a complete lack of planning, I suspect the decision to invade was a last minute thing, my guess is up until last week the Generals weren't thinking they were going in, they seem to have no maps, no comm' units, no real planning.

In the Russian military tradition, it's not that unusual to treat the soldiers like cannon fodder mushrooms. It's a big reason why they couldn't take Finland in the fourties despite overwhelming numbers, the Russian soldiers were poorly informed, poorly motivated and poorly prepared. It's not enough that the generals have folders full of plans, someone needs to execute those plans.

Considering the huge problems Russians have had in keeping their plans and troop movements obfuscated from US intelligence (and thus Ukrainian military intelligence), I can very easily imagine the Russian military leadership feeling like they just have to keep the troops in the dark as much as possible.

We could actually be watching the end of Putin

We can certainly hope.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

An update from my wife and her family, who are currently bunkered down in their apartment close to Kharkov.

I mainly return to this thread to read your updates HW, it's a terrible situation but I am glad your wife, her family and their village are not under immediate threat of loss of life. I guess you just have to take it day by day and hope for the best, but if it helps their morale you can let her know many of us are keeping them in our thoughts constantly.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

This also speaks to a complete lack of planning, I suspect the decision to invade was a last minute thing, my guess is up until last week the Generals weren't thinking they were going in, they seem to have no maps, no comm' units, no real planning.

We could actually be watching the end of Putin

The whole world was told about invasion like a month in advance. Many didn't believe, yet it doesn't look like a last minute decision. More like it was a last minute news for the troops. Hence while the strategic decision was made long on advance, generals on the ground were not informed - presumably to keep plans secret - and were unable to prepare tactical plans.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Itse

In the Russian military tradition, it's not that unusual to treat the soldiers like cannon fodder mushrooms. It's a big reason why they couldn't take Finland in the fourties despite overwhelming numbers, the Russian soldiers were poorly informed, poorly motivated and poorly prepared. It's not enough that the generals have folders full of plans, someone needs to execute those plans.

But a few years later, the Red Army was battering the German Army in the East with a relentless series of offensives.

[Pointman]

Russian media claim Zelenskiy fleed Kyiv and is now in Lviv. Probably a fake to demoralize Kyiv defenders.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Russian media claim Zelenskiy fleed Kyiv and is now in Lviv. Probably a fake to demoralize Kyiv defenders.

More likely it's propaganda directed at Russians, wanting to create an impression that this will be over soon.

Seems pointless directed a Ukrainians. It's not like Ukrainians are fighting for Zelenskiy, and trivially debunkable if false.

[Itse]

Estonia joining Czezh and Poland in closing their airspace from Russian commercial flights, urging Latvia and Lithuania to join in.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

More likely it's propaganda directed at Russians, wanting to create an impression that this will be over soon.

Seems pointless directed a Ukrainians. It's not like Ukrainians are fighting for Zelenskiy, and trivially debunkable if false.

Good point. Russia just reported that USA is allegedly ready to support Ukrainian decision to become neutral stage. As I've read it I figured Russian media are trying to sell the idea that the war will be over soon. They don't focus much on successes on a battlefield, but more on how the west is allegedly ready to accept Russian demands.

[tony-soprano]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497569261799288840

[Monahammer]

It seems too optimistic, and I concur with the cannon fodder take. But, the relative seeming weakness of the Russian war machine (communications are still up in Kiev for f's sake) may give some more fuel to why this is all happening now. Putin knows how dire their situation is and needed something to bluster through.

Having seen this now though, I'm not convinced that Russia could take Europe alone in a conventional fight.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It seems too optimistic, and I concur with the cannon fodder take. But, the relative seeming weakness of the Russian war machine (communications are still up in Kiev for f's sake) may give some more fuel to why this is all happening now. Putin knows how dire their situation is and needed something to bluster through.



Having seen this now though, I'm not convinced that Russia could take Europe alone in a conventional fight.

Was that the general feeling before this that Russia could take? Captain and other military experts?

That Russia could defeat all of Europe without nukes?

[White Out 403]

aww. swear filter. a russian tank ran out of fuel. a ukrainian man picked them up and drove them back to russia, suggesting they should surrender as they're losing the war.

[CliffFletcher]

Scathing column in the Guardian on the lack of political will to sanction Russian oligarchs in London:

It’s Putin’s tale of two cities – London for his oligarchs, Kyiv for his bombs

…Just a tiny snapshot from a London that is uniquely placed to hurt Russia’s richest and most powerful – the class who could ultimately help decide how long Vladimir Putin sticks around. Yet London continues to pull its punches. In a mirthless sort of way, I enjoyed Boris Johnson thundering on Thursday that “oligarchs in London will have nowhere to hide”. Righto. That same morning, Andrey Guryev, the reported owner of Witanhurst, London’s second largest house after Buckingham Palace, could be seen on telly at Putin’s meeting of the oligarchs in the Kremlin. Not a great hiding place – but then, perhaps Andrey knows the seeker is so quarter-arsed he doesn’t actually need one. London’s fight against oligarchs reminds me a lot of Russia’s fight against doping in sports. Some real through-the-looking-glass stuff.

Anyway, I say that Guryev is the “reported owner” of Witanhurst, because even that simple fact remains extraordinarily difficult to establish, to say nothing of more controversial information. For so many of these Russian persons of interest, the internet management alone is a full-time job. But then, there are so very many full-timers. In a few weeks you will be able to buy the brilliant Oliver Bullough’s new book, Butler to the World, in which he details how the UK became the servant of some of the world’s worst individuals. To help the oligarchs, the kleptocrats and the gangsters, Londongrad boasts a whole humming, interconnected professional class of reality-launderers specifically designed to service them – lawyers and lobbyists and education consultants and all sorts of others who imagine themselves to work for respectable businesses. But don’t...

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...utin-donations