Fire Gulutzan/Give him Coach of the year All Purpose Thread

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by JohnnyT

Retro brought up the change from Sutter to Playfair on the morning show today I think that's comparable. Sutter was a drill Sargent, as was Hartley, and then you bring in a guy who isn't suppose to do that, problem is with a young team they now have to motivate themselves on a daily basis and there's a definite learning period for that. Add in new contact expectations for your stars and a bad start and now you have a young team trying to find motivation themselves who are a fragile glass ball tumbling down a rocky cliff that feel like every mistake they make ends up with a red light going on.

I don't think Gully is that bad of coach, he definitely has his issues, but he's been setup to fail this season. I think playoffs are already essentially out of the picture this season, now management has to decide if they stick out with and hope that the team starts to perform under Gully and next season is better, or do they fire him and hope whoever comes in the interim can reinstill an indentity in this team. If you do fire him, then the question becomes A) can you hire another players coach, or have your core learned nothing and we need to go back to basics? B) Who is out there coaching wise that could be with your team for the foreseeable future?

Not a fun time to be in hockey ops, but you've made decisions that got you to the point you're at now and now your being paid to fix it.

That is a bit of an indictment of the team's leadership. There are no shortage of veterans on this team. Gio, Stajan, Brower, Frolik, Wideman, Engelland to name a few.

Some of these guys (thinking of Stajan, Engelland in particular) were overpaid because they were so good "in the room".

I'm starting to wonder just how well Treliving, Burke and company really know this team.

[Wiggum_PI]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

When did Gulutzan become general manager? This is the same team that had Bob Hartley almost in tears the day Paul Byron was waived, and suddenly Gulutzan is making executive decisions?

Obviously all final roster decisions are made by the GM, but I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that Gulutzan vouched for players like Grossman and Chiasson, and coaches Cameron and Jerrard.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Bob Hartley was almost in tears cause of Paul Byron?

Certainly if Bob wanted Byron in his top 12 he'd still be here. Though I'd love to see this interview with Hartley where he's welling up with emotion.

[FanIn80]

Did he ever indicate why he dressed Wideman and didn't put him on the PP?

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

This is true. I posted my own subjective opinion on the previous page. A few common criticisms include

A) That Gulutzan is coaching 5-on-5 for corsi and not shot quality.
B) That the special teams are not improving
C) That the team as a whole is exactly playing as it was to start the season.

But that too is not data.

Looking at wins and losses, that seems easy to say. But wins and losses don't factor in bounces, calls, individual slumps/hot streaks, goaltending, and strength of schedule. So let's look at the data - in four game segments.

Splitting the first sixteen games into four different four game segments, we can check to see if the Flames are or are not getting better.

-We're not going to look at corsi, because of (A)
-We're not going to look at 5-on-5 play in isolation because of (B)

Instead we'll look at expected goals in all situations. It's a holistic look at whether the team is starting to get better looks from better scoring areas, rush scoring, play with discipline, kill penalties better, get their best players playing well, all that stuff. 5v5 Corsi may be a strong predictor of future playoff success, but expected goals are a good record of past success/failure where Corsi could be misleading due to the perceived "Dallas Eakins Effect".

Hartley's Flames were respectively 24th, 20th, and 21st in All-Situations xGF% which probably lined up closer with their regular season on-ice visible results (to our eyes) than their corsi did (a 20th place team finishing 16th in standings or a 21st place team finishing 26th in the standings, neither is a huge swing given the goaltending.

The following are Score-Adjusted All-Situations Expected Goal Percentages across 4 game segments. As I type this I haven't looked at these particular numbers for this season. If the team is getting progressively better, that means the problem is being overstated by our narratives (mine included) and results should start to follow. If the team is plateauing at a low number, that means the coach has not done his job. In brackets I've included who faced in that segment as well as their rank in the stat on the season, because the opponent matters too.

Games 1 - 4: 48.07 (#21EDM, #21EDM, #28VAN, #20BUF - AVG#23)
The Flames blew the first segment going only 1-2-1 in it. But Gulutzan was still figuring things out. Expected goals were below 50% which is not good against four bad teams, u

Games 5 - 8: 40.84 (#9CAR, #14STL, #23CHI, #14STL - AVG#15)
The Flames were mostly outplayed in the second segment, but went 2-2-0. Our visual observations of the team not playing all that well weren't too off.

Games 9 - 12: 41.96 (#15OTT, #4WAS, #23CHI, #2SJS - AVG#11)
The Flames slightly improved against better competition during the third segment, and again went 2-2-0

Games 13 - 16: 47.97 (#5LAK, #10ANA, #18DAL, #1NYR - AVG#9)
Competition improved yet again, and yet despite going 0-4-0 the Flames started to play better overall than the previous two segments during the third segment. Given the quality of competition, I think an argument could be made that the Flames played better than they did in segment one, as well. 0-4-0 is never acceptable, but these are some opponents that with the exception of Dallas (**** you Alex Chiasson for that stupid penalty!) that are a poor guage for the coach to be evaluated on.

Games 17-20: ???? (#8MIN, #30ARI, #23CHI, #24DET - AVG#21)
The next segment is the first time the competition isn't getting progressively better. If the Flames post an xGF% > 50% for their first four game segment of the season, it could be a sign that Gulutzan's system is finally working. If the Flames' xGF% plateaus or drops despite the worse competition, it is a sign that Gulutzan is not getting results and to stop having patience.

Games 21-24: ???? (#20BUF, #27CBJ, #11BOS, #12PHI - AVG#17)
Another Below Average Competition segment follows the previous one. Another segment where Gulutzan should be under fair scrutiy.

Games 25-28: ???? (#26NYI, #13TOR, #8MIN, #10ANA - AVG #14)
A very average segment.

We Will See What Happens. In particular the nine games after Minnesota could either be proof positive that Gulutzan is a bad coach or that the Flames can turn things around and get points in every game.

Can't believe there wasn't more traction to this post. You should consider creating a thread and tracking this stuff separately. Kinda like a critical analysis by the numbers of the team.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by JohnnyT

Retro brought up the change from Sutter to Playfair on the morning show today I think that's comparable. Sutter was a drill Sargent, as was Hartley, and then you bring in a guy who isn't suppose to do that, problem is with a young team they now have to motivate themselves on a daily basis and there's a definite learning period for that. Add in new contact expectations for your stars and a bad start and now you have a young team trying to find motivation themselves who are a fragile glass ball tumbling down a rocky cliff that feel like every mistake they make ends up with a red light going on.

I don't think Gully is that bad of coach, he definitely has his issues, but he's been setup to fail this season. I think playoffs are already essentially out of the picture this season, now management has to decide if they stick out with and hope that the team starts to perform under Gully and next season is better, or do they fire him and hope whoever comes in the interim can reinstill an indentity in this team. If you do fire him, then the question becomes A) can you hire another players coach, or have your core learned nothing and we need to go back to basics? B) Who is out there coaching wise that could be with your team for the foreseeable future?

Not a fun time to be in hockey ops, but you've made decisions that got you to the point you're at now and now your being paid to fix it.

I was thinking about the Playfair experiment as well and how it was rumoured that he never quite had the room.

And if you believe the rumours that Hartley was let go partially because some members of Generation Snowflake thought he was too big of a meanie and they wanted a more easy going coach, it makes me wonder if GG is too afraid to call out and punish the wrong guys.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by JohnnyT

I don't think Gully is that bad of coach, he definitely has his issues, but he's been setup to fail this season.

On the contrary, Gully has been gifted the best roster the Flames have iced in many seasons, and was given the full reins to implement his system. He was given every chance to succeed by Treliving. He was not given a garbage roster or a 3 headed goalie monster or any of that nonsense.

No excuses.

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

On the contrary, Gully has been gifted the best roster the Flames have iced in many seasons, and was given the full reins to implement his system. He was given every chance to succeed by Treliving. He was not given a garbage roster or a 3 headed goalie monster or any of that nonsense.

No excuses.

I disagree with the best roster we iced in many seasons. You also can't expect a coach to come in and wave a magic wand after 16 games and be better right away especially with a newer faces from last season and a new system.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

I was in Dallas and a season ticket holder the years GG coached the Stars.

I've seen this one before.

Full marks to the man for loyalty, but bringing back broken parts of that Stars team in Grossman and Chiasson, and his old mentor in Cameron were warning signs. Not that those changes would make or break the team, but that he valued familiarity and nepotism over fact based assessment.

Nobody here thought Grossman could still play. But the old boy deserved it due to his history with the coach. Cameron was a bad coach in Ott, and Chaisson is a scrub... but again here they are in significant roles.

He may be an intellectual with neat chalkboard ideas, or a guy who says the right things in his interviews with the GM. But this is a results based league and WHATEVER the intention is, he's getting zero mileage out of the top 6/4 players. Just like he didn't in Dallas.

I wanted to give him another chance with a better roster, but the immediate import of losers from his loser past sort of soured me early.

And watching the team Oiler it up so there is no point watching past American Thanksgiving has me sadly feeling deja-vous. It's not like the games have been close.

Well then. This well used gif feels applicable.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by JohnnyT

Retro brought up the change from Sutter to Playfair on the morning show today I think that's comparable. Sutter was a drill Sargent, as was Hartley, and then you bring in a guy who isn't suppose to do that, problem is with a young team they now have to motivate themselves on a daily basis and there's a definite learning period for that. Add in new contact expectations for your stars and a bad start and now you have a young team trying to find motivation themselves who are a fragile glass ball tumbling down a rocky cliff that feel like every mistake they make ends up with a red light going on.

I don't think Gully is that bad of coach, he definitely has his issues, but he's been setup to fail this season. I think playoffs are already essentially out of the picture this season, now management has to decide if they stick out with and hope that the team starts to perform under Gully and next season is better, or do they fire him and hope whoever comes in the interim can reinstill an indentity in this team. If you do fire him, then the question becomes A) can you hire another players coach, or have your core learned nothing and we need to go back to basics? B) Who is out there coaching wise that could be with your team for the foreseeable future?

Not a fun time to be in hockey ops, but you've made decisions that got you to the point you're at now and now your being paid to fix it.

I think the Playfair comparison is a great one. My lasting image of Playfair will always be biting his finger nails on the bench when the game got tight (and that time he lost his marbles and ripped off his jackets in the AHL). PLayfair was brought in as a defensive specialist to take over a winning team from Sutter and struggled with being a leader. Similarly, GG has the technical knowledge and looks like he is a great "teacher" (this was a core requirement in Playfair's search), however he is not a great leader/motivator and therefore continues to fail as a coach.This is most evident in the culture of the team.

I am not in the bring back Hartley camp, but for the last two years, the identity of the team was clear. You could ask any fan, any media personel or any player and they would tell you that the culture of this team was hard work with an "always earned, never given" mantra. As fans we disagreed with that it meant to "earn", but the culture was clear. This year you have a bunch of snowflakes drifting in the wind without a unifying vision, purpose or culture, because GG simply didn't have one to start the season. Instead we have the following:

1. We want to be a team that wants to be tough to play against, and yet we try to keep the puck off the boards because we cant win those battles against tough teams.

2. We want to be a fast team, but we focus on puck possession instead of a quick transition.

3. We want to be a team that moves as a 5 man unit and yet we line up at the opposition blue line waiting for one guy with speed to enter the zone.

Yes there is more the leadership on this team could be doing, but this is a team that is very coachable because they put their head down and lead by example. There is no one in that room that strikes me as a pump up the addrenaline kind of guy. The closest may be Elliot, but he has enough in his own house to worry about rather than going after the rest of the team.

Something to think about...

-Jonathan Toews is not Jonathan Toews without Joel Quenville behind him.

-Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are not the leaders they are without Darryl Sutter.

At the end of the day, even the most experienced leaders are in their early 30s, this is why we have coaches.

[genetic_phreek]

I've always hated the culture or identity of a team is "hard work/ing". To me that means you're not skilled.

You look at most championship teams, "defensive", "fast", "skilled", "big", etc.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I've always hated the culture or identity of a team is "hard work/ing". To me that means you're not skilled.

You look at most championship teams, "defensive", "fast", "skilled", "big", etc.

What are we?

[Alpine Fisher]

If Gully took the job with the Regina police, do you think he would have been 'good cop' or 'bad cop'?

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by tkflames

What are we?

Gully said in an earlier interview he wants us to be known as hard working.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Alpine Fisher

If Gully took the job with the Regina police, do you think he would have been 'good cop' or 'bad cop'?

[JohnnyT]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

On the contrary, Gully has been gifted the best roster the Flames have iced in many seasons, and was given the full reins to implement his system. He was given every chance to succeed by Treliving. He was not given a garbage roster or a 3 headed goalie monster or any of that nonsense.

No excuses.

Sure, but he also inherited:

• Stars players undergoing their first head coaching change in the NHL
• 3 players now playing under their biggest contracts ever
• Implementing a new system in a training camp without your 2 best players and giving ice time for PTO players to be evaluated
• Expectations that this team may go from a top 5 pick to winning or at least contending for the pacific division
• Also hired as a 'players' coach, not a Bob Hartley type coach

Look, I'm not saying this should give him a pass on the team's performance. The on ice product has been terrible and the things that we were told he was here to change have not changed. However, I do think there are few coaches that would have walked into the above situation and succeeded, especially the caliber of coaches available when Hartley was fired.



Whether it was Gully, Travis Green, Nate Leaman, etc. I think any of them would have had a rough start and that's on management.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

I was in Dallas and a season ticket holder the years GG coached the Stars.

I've seen this one before.

Full marks to the man for loyalty, but bringing back broken parts of that Stars team in Grossman and Chiasson, and his old mentor in Cameron were warning signs. Not that those changes would make or break the team, but that he valued familiarity and nepotism over fact based assessment.

Nobody here thought Grossman could still play. But the old boy deserved it due to his history with the coach. Cameron was a bad coach in Ott, and Chaisson is a scrub... but again here they are in significant roles.

He may be an intellectual with neat chalkboard ideas, or a guy who says the right things in his interviews with the GM. But this is a results based league and WHATEVER the intention is, he's getting zero mileage out of the top 6/4 players. Just like he didn't in Dallas.

I wanted to give him another chance with a better roster, but the immediate import of losers from his loser past sort of soured me early.

And watching the team Oiler it up so there is no point watching past American Thanksgiving has me sadly feeling deja-vous. It's not like the games have been close.

Well this thread just got way more interesting. I guess as you've seen a bit more than most with GG. Can you provide some commentary, from whatever you recall, on the following:

1) Star players in Dallas - Did they seem to have adjustment issues to his system when he was put in place?

2) Systems - Do they look similar to the flashes of good and lots of bad we've seen this year?

3) While GG is not the special teams coach, he would have to answer to the results we've seen. Did it look as sloppy as it does now?

4) What were the visual impacts to the defensive game and the defenceman at that time?

[Machiavelli]

“For people to say that is pretty ridiculous,” said Sean Monahan of the growing calls for Gulutzan’s head.

“It’s a process and sometimes things aren’t going the way you want them to. I think it’s just a matter of the full 20 guys buying in. We’ve got a lot of skill and you look at our team on paper we’re a good team. Right now we’re not showing it on the ice.”

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hock...g-flames-coach

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hock...g-flames-coach

A matter of the full 20 guys buying in? If there are players not buying in that's a huge problem.

[djsFlames]

Process process process..

Getting old, boys.